A parametric model for the interval censored survival times of Acacia mangium plantation in a spacing trial

Survival times for the Acacia mangium plantation in the Segaliud Lokan Project, Sabah, East Malaysia were analysed based on 20 permanent sample plots (PSPs) established in 1988 as a spacing experiment. The PSPs were established following a complete randomized block design with five levels of spacing randomly assigned to units within four blocks at different sites. The survival times of trees in years are of interest. Since the inventories were only conducted annually, the actual survival time for each tree was not observed. Hence, the data set comprises censored survival times. Initial analysis of the survival of the Acacia mangium plantation suggested there is block by spacing interaction; a Weibull model gives a reasonable fit to the replicate survival times within each PSP; but a standard Weibull regression model is inappropriate because the shape parameter differs between PSPs. In this paper we investigate the form of the non-constant Weibull shape parameter. Parsimonious models for the Weibull survival times have been derived using maximum likelihood methods. The factor selection for the parameters is based on a backward elimination procedure. The models are compared using likelihood ratio statistics. The results suggest that both Weibull parameters depend on spacing and block.

Parametric accelerated failure time models with random effects and an application to kidney transplant survival

Accelerated failure time models with a shared random component are described, and are used to evaluate the effect of explanatory factors and different transplant centres on survival times following kidney transplantation. Different combinations of the distribution of the random effects and baseline hazard function are considered and the fit of such models to the transplant data is critically assessed. A mixture model that combines short- and long-term components of a hazard function is then developed, which provides a more flexible model for the hazard function. The model can incorporate different explanatory variables and random effects in each component. The model is straightforward to fit using standard statistical software, and is shown to be a good fit to the transplant data. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

On improving the performance in robust controllers for robot manipulators with parametric disturbances

This paper presents a new strategy for controlling rigid-robot manipulators in the presence of parametric uncertainties or un-modelled dynamics. The strategy combines an adaptation law with a well known robust controller proposed by Spong, which is derived using Lyapunov's direct method. Although the tracking problem of manipulators has been successfully solved with different strategies, there are some conditions under which their efficiency is limited. Specifically, their performance decreases when unknown loading masses or model disturbances are introduced. The aim of this work is to show that the proposed strategy performs better than existing algorithms, as verified with real-time experimental results with a Puma-560 robot. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transnational urbanism in Port of Spain: returning middle-class urban elites

Port of Spain, Trinidad offers an ideal context in which to analyze pre-retirement return migration to a Global South urban realm, expanding transnational urban research beyond the conventional focus on Global North metropolitan destinations. In this article, we draw on the transnational narratives of a selected sample of relatively youthful Trinidadians, who have spent many years abroad acquiring education and professional experience, but who have then decided to return in mid-career to the capital region of the island nation of their birth, or of their parent(s). Theoretically, we position these returning professionals as members of a "middling" transnational urban class whose return is at least partly motivated by a desire to "make a difference." Our results contribute to a growing literature that documents the role of transnational middle-class urban elites returning elsewhere in the Carribbean: "middling" transnational urbanism is reshaping key facets of urbanization in the Global South.

Passive urban ventilation by combined buoyancy-driven slope flow and wall flow: Parametric CFD studies on idealized city models

This paper reports the results of a parametric CFD study on idealized city models to investigate the potential of slope flow in ventilating a city located in a mountainous region when the background synoptic wind is absent. Examples of such a city include Tokyo in Japan, Los Angeles and Phoenix in the US, and Hong Kong. Two types of buoyancy-driven flow are considered, i.e., slope flow from the mountain slope (katabatic wind at night and anabatic wind in the daytime), and wall flow due to heated/cooled urban surfaces. The combined buoyancy-driven flow system can serve the purpose of dispersing the accumulated urban air pollutants when the background wind is weak or absent. The microscopic picture of ventilation performance within the urban structures was evaluated in terms of air change rate (ACH) and age of air. The simulation results reveal that the slope flow plays an important role in ventilating the urban area, especially in calm conditions. Katabatic flow at night is conducive to mitigating the nocturnal urban heat island. In the present parametric study, the mountain slope angle and mountain height are assumed to be constant, and the changing variables are heating/cooling intensity and building height. For a typical mountain of 500 m inclined at an angle of 20° to the horizontal level, the interactive structure is very much dependent on the ratio of heating/cooling intensity as well as building height. When the building is lower than 60 m, the slope wind dominates. When the building is as high as 100 m, the contribution from the urban wall flow cannot be ignored. It is found that katabatic wind can be very beneficial to the thermal environment as well as air quality at the pedestrian level. The air change rate for the pedestrian volume can be as high as 300 ACH.

A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Oppida, agglomerations and suburbia: the bibracte environs and new perspectives on late Iron Age urbanism in central-eastern France

This paper explores the nature and chronology of La Tène and early Roman unenclosed agglomerations in central-eastern France. It has been prompted by the discovery of a c. 115 ha La Tène D2b/Augustan (c. 50 bc to ad 15) site close to Bibracte in the Morvan, located around the source of the River Yonne. This complex provides a new perspective on the chronology and role of Late La Tène and early Roman unenclosed settlements, adding further complexity to the story of the development of Late La Tène oppida. It indicates that these ‘agglomerations’ followed remarkably varied chronological trajectories, raising important issues concerning the nature of landscape and social change at the end of the Iron Age. Dieser Aufsatz untersucht den Charakter und die Datierung von latènezeitlichen und frührömischen offenen Siedlungen im östlichen Zentralfrankreich. Die Anregung dazu erfolgte durch die Entdeckung einer Latène D2b-zeitlichen bis augusteischen (ca. 50 v. Chr. – 15 n. Chr.) Anlage im Morvan bei Bibracte, die ca. 115 ha Fläche bedeckt und sich um die Quellen des Flusses Yonne erstreckt. Es wird vorgeschlagen, dass dieser Siedlungskomplex eine Ergänzung, aber auch einen Kontrast zu den üblichen Interpretationsmodellen von spätlatènezeitlichen und frührömischen, offenen Großsiedlungen und ihrer zeitlichen Entwicklung darstellt, und weiter zur Komplexität der Entwicklung spätlatènezeitlicher Oppida beiträgt. Es deutet sich an, dass einige der ‘Agglomerationen’ anderen Entwicklungslinien folgen, die wichtige Fragen zur Landschaftsgenese und zum sozialen Wandel am Ende der Eisenzeit aufwerfen. Cet article a pour but d'explorer la nature ainsi que la chronologie des agglomérations ouvertes apparaissant à La Tène Final et au début de la période gallo-romaine du Centre-Est de la France. Il fut inspiré et écrit suite à la découverte dans le Morvan d'un site de 115 ha datant de La Tène D2b et de la période Augustéenne (50 av. J.C. à 15 ap. J.C.) s'étirant autour des Sources de l'Yonne. Cette agglomération apporte de nouvelles perspectives sur la chronologie et sur le rôle des habitats ouverts à la fin de l'Âge du Fer ainsi qu'au début de l'époque gallo-romaine apportant des éléments amenés à renforcer le caractère complexe de l'histoire du développement des oppida à La Tène Final. Cette synthèse tend à démontrer que ces agglomérations suivaient des trajectoires chronologiques variées, élevant un certain nombre de questions, et donc des nouvelles problématiques, concernant la nature du paysage et du changement social à la fin de l'Âge du Fer.