Bt cotton and production risk: Panel data evidence

The farm-level success of Bt-cotton in developing countries is well documented. However, the literature has only recently begun to recognise the importance of accounting for the effects of the technology on production risk, in addition to the mean effect estimated by previous studies. The risk effects of the technology are likely very important to smallholder farmers in the developing world due to their risk-aversion. We advance the emergent literature on Bt-cotton and production risk by using panel data methods to control for possible endogeneity of Bt-adoption. We estimate two models, the first a fixed-effects version of the Just and Pope model with additive individual and time effects, and the second a variation of the model in which inputs and variety choice are allowed to affect the variance of the time effect and its correlation with the idiosyncratic error. The models are applied to panel data on smallholder cotton production in India and South Africa. Our results suggest a risk-reducing effect of Bt-cotton in India, but an inconclusive picture in South Africa.

Linking public issues with private troubles: panel studies in developing countries

Accompanying the call for increased evidence-based policy the developed world is implementing more longitudinal panel studies which periodically gather information about the same people over a number of years. Panel studies distinguish between transitory and persistent states (e.g. poverty, unemployment) and facilitate causal explanations of relationships between variables. However, they are complex and costly. A growing number of developing countries are now implementing or considering starting panel studies. The objectives of this paper are to identify challenges that arise in panel studies, and to give examples of how these have been addressed in resource-constrained environments. The main issues considered are: the development of a conceptual framework which links macro and micro contexts; sampling the cohort in a cost-effective way; tracking individuals; ethics and data management and analysis. Panel studies require long term funding, a stable institution and an acceptance that there will be limited value for money in terms of results from early stages, with greater benefits accumulating in the study's mature years. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Occupational choice, socio-economic status and educational attainment: a study of the occupational choices and destinations of young people in the British household panel survey

The article considers young people's occupational choices at the age of 15 in relation to their educational attainment, the occupations of their parents and their actual occupations when they are in their early 20s. It uses data from the British Household Panel Survey over periods of between five and ten years. The young people in the survey are occupationally ambitious: many more aspire to professional, managerial and technical jobs than the likely availability of these occupations. In general ambitions and educational attainment and intentions are well aligned but there are also many instances of misalignment; either people wanting jobs which their educational attainments and intentions will not prepare them for, or people with less ambitious aspirations than their educational performance would justify. Children from more occupationally advantaged families are more ambitious, achieve better educationally and have better occupational outcomes than other children. However, where young people are both ambitious and educationally successful the occupational outcomes are as good for those from disadvantaged as advantaged families. In contrast, where young people are neither ambitious nor educationally successful, the outcomes for those from disadvantaged homes are very much poorer than for other young people. The article suggests that while choice is real it is also heavily constrained for many people. A possible educational implication of the study is that career interventions could be directed at under-ambitious but academically capable young people from disadvantaged backgrounds.