Dispersion Experiments in Central London: The 2007 DAPPLE project

In the event of a release of toxic gas in the center of London, the emergency services would need to determine quickly the extent of the area contaminated. The transport of pollutants by turbulent flow within the complex street and building architecture of cities is not straightforward, and we might wonder whether it is at all possible to make a scientifically-reasoned decision. Here we describe recent progress from a major UK project, ‘Dispersion of Air Pollution and its Penetration into the Local Environment’ (DAPPLE, www.dapple.org.uk). In DAPPLE, we focus on the movement of airborne pollutants in cities by developing a greater understanding of atmospheric flow and dispersion within urban street networks. In particular, we carried out full-scale dispersion experiments in central London (UK) during 2003, 2004, 2007, and 2008 to address the extent of the dispersion of tracers following their release at street level. These measurements complemented previous studies because (i) our focus was on dispersion within the first kilometer from the source, when most of the material was expected to remain within the street network rather than being mixed into the boundary layer aloft, (ii) measurements were made under a wide variety of meteorological conditions, and (iii) central London represents a European, rather than North American, city geometry. Interpretation of the results from the full-scale experiments was supported by extensive numerical and wind tunnel modeling, which allowed more detailed analysis under idealized and controlled conditions. In this article, we review the full-scale DAPPLE methodologies and show early results from the analysis of the 2007 field campaign data.

Proceedings of the West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) Conference 2010

FOREWORD Welcome to this West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) conference taking place here in Ghana. Thank you for coming and welcome to Accra. The main aims of the WABER conference are: to help young researchers and early-career scholars in West Africa to develop their research work and skills through constructive face-to-face interaction with experienced academics; to provide a platform for networking and collaborative work among senior built environment academics in West Africa; and to serve as a vehicle for developing the field of construction management and economics in Africa. Waber 2009 The WABER event in 2009 was held at the British Council in Accra, Ghana on 2-3 June. The event was a resounding success. It attracted participation from 32 researchers, from 12 different institutions, who presented their work to an audience of approximately 100 people. Each presenter received immediate and constructive feedback from an international panel. The event was opened by Professor K.K. Adarkwa, Vice Chancellor of KNUST, Kumasi, Ghana, with several senior academics and researchers from universities, polytechnics, and other institutions in Ghana and Nigeria in attendance. There was also a significant level of attendance by senior construction practitioners in Ghana. Thank you to the School of Construction Management and Engineering, University of Reading, UK for funding the inaugural event in 2009. We are also grateful to all of you who helped to make the event a success and to those of you who have joined us here today to build upon the success and legacy of WABER 2009. Waber 2010 This year, we have 60+ peer-reviewed papers and presentations on topics relating to Building services and maintenance, Construction costs, Construction design and technology, Construction education, Construction finance, Construction procurement, Contract administration, Contract management, Contractor development, Decision support systems, Dispute resolution, Economic development, Energy efficiency, Environment and sustainability, Health and safety, Human resources, Information technology, Marketing, Materials science, Organisation strategy and business performance, Productivity, Project management, Quantity surveying, Real estate and planning, Solar energy systems, Supply chain management and Urban development. We hope that these papers will generate interest among delagates and stimulate discussion here and beyond the conference into the wider community of academia and industry. The delegates at this conference come from 10 different countries. This provides a rich international and multicultural blend and a perfect platform for networking and developing collaborations. This year we are blessed to have three high profile keynote speakers in the persons of Professor George Ofori (National University of Singapore), Dr Roine Leiringer (University of Reading, UK) and Professor Will Hughes (University of Reading, UK). We are also thankful to Dr Chris Harty (University of Reading, UK) who is facilitating the Research Skills Workshop on ‘Writing a scientific article’. Thank you to Dr Sena Agyepong of our conference organising team for her capable management of local organising arrangements. And above all, thank you to all of you for coming to this conference. Enjoy and have a safe journey back home. Dr Samuel Laryea School of Construction Management and Engineering University of Reading, July 2010

Built environment education and research in West Africa

Built environment programmes in West African universities; and research contributions from West Africa in six leading international journals and proceedings of the WABER conference are explored. At least 20 universities in the region offer degree programmes in Architecture (86% out of 23 universities); Building (57%); Civil Engineering (67%); Estate Management (52%); Quantity Surveying (52%); Surveying and Geoinformatics (55%); Urban and Regional Planning (67%). The lecturer-student ratio on programmes is around 1:25 compared to the 1:10 benchmark for excellence. Academics who teach on the programmes are clearly research active with some having published papers in leading international journals. There is, however, plenty of scope for improvement particularly at the highest international level. Out of more than 5000 papers published in six leading international peer-reviewed journals since each of them was established, only 23 of the papers have come from West Africa. The 23 papers are published by 28 academics based in 13 universities. Although some academics may publish their work in the plethora of journals that have proliferated in recent years, new generation researchers are encouraged to publish in more established journals. The analyses of 187 publications in the WABER conference proceedings revealed 18 research-active universities. Factors like quality of teaching, research and lecturer-student ratio, etc count in the ranking of universities. The findings lay bare some of the areas that should be addressed to improve the landscape of higher education in West Africa.

Built environment research in West Africa current trends and future directions

The countries in West Africa (WA) are pushing for socio-economic development. The construction sector has an important part to play in helping to realise these aspirations. This necessitates an increased emphasis on research in the built environment, as a key contributor to developing capacity, knowledge and technologies for the sector. The West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) conference was initiated in 2008. The objective was to: help young built environment researchers in West Africa (WA) to develop their research work and skills through constructive face-to-face interaction with their peers and experienced international academics; supply a platform for interaction among more senior academics and an outlet for disseminating their research work; and to serve as a vehicle for developing the built environment field in Africa. Three conferences have so far been organised, 2009 - 2011, bringing together ~300 academics, researchers and practitioners from the WA region. This paper draws on content analysis of the 189 papers in the proceedings of three conferences: 2009 (25); 2010 (57) and 2011 (107). These papers provide a window into current research priorities and trends and, thus, offer an opportunity to understand the kinds of research work undertaken by built environment researchers in West Africa. The aim is to illuminate the main research themes and methods that are currently pursued and the limitations thereof. The findings lay bare some of the many challenges that are faced by academics in WA and provide suggestions for alternative directions for future research and development work with indications of a potential research agenda.

Modelling climate impact on floods with ensemble climate projections

The evidence provided by modelled assessments of future climate impact on flooding is fundamental to water resources and flood risk decision making. Impact models usually rely on climate projections from global and regional climate models (GCM/RCMs). However, challenges in representing precipitation events at catchment-scale resolution mean that decisions must be made on how to appropriately pre-process the meteorological variables from GCM/RCMs. Here the impacts on projected high flows of differing ensemble approaches and application of Model Output Statistics to RCM precipitation are evaluated while assessing climate change impact on flood hazard in the Upper Severn catchment in the UK. Various ensemble projections are used together with the HBV hydrological model with direct forcing and also compared to a response surface technique. We consider an ensemble of single-model RCM projections from the current UK Climate Projections (UKCP09); multi-model ensemble RCM projections from the European Union's FP6 ‘ENSEMBLES’ project; and a joint probability distribution of precipitation and temperature from a GCM-based perturbed physics ensemble. The ensemble distribution of results show that flood hazard in the Upper Severn is likely to increase compared to present conditions, but the study highlights the differences between the results from different ensemble methods and the strong assumptions made in using Model Output Statistics to produce the estimates of future river discharge. The results underline the challenges in using the current generation of RCMs for local climate impact studies on flooding. Copyright © 2012 Royal Meteorological Society

Built environment research in West Africa: current trends and future directions

The countries in West Africa (WA) are pushing for socio-economic development. The construction sector has an important part to play in helping to realise these aspirations. This necessitates an increased emphasis on research in the built environment, as a key contributor to developing capacity, knowledge and technologies for the sector. The West Africa Built Environment Research (WABER) conference was initiated in 2008. The objective was to: help young built environment researchers in West Africa (WA) to develop their research work and skills through constructive face-to-face interaction with their peers and experienced international academics; supply a platform for interaction among more senior academics and an outlet for disseminating their research work; and to serve as a vehicle for developing the built environment field in Africa. Three conferences have so far been organised, 2009 - 2011, bringing together ~300 academics, researchers and practitioners from the WA region. This paper draws on content analysis of the 189 papers in the proceedings of three conferences: 2009 (25); 2010 (57) and 2011 (107). These papers provide a window into current research priorities and trends and, thus, offer an opportunity to understand the kinds of research work undertaken by built environment researchers in West Africa. The aim is to illuminate the main research themes and methods that are currently pursued and the limitations thereof. The findings lay bare some of the many challenges that are faced by academics in WA and provide suggestions for alternative directions for future research and development work with indications of a potential research agenda.

Towards global drought early warning capability: expanding international cooperation for the development of a framework for global drought monitoring and forecasting

Drought is a global problem that has far-reaching impacts and especially 47 on vulnerable populations in developing regions. This paper highlights the need for a Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), the elements that constitute its underlying framework (GDEWF) and the recent progress made towards its development. Many countries lack drought monitoring systems, as well as the capacity to respond via appropriate political, institutional and technological frameworks, and these have inhibited the development of integrated drought management plans or early warning systems. The GDEWS will provide a source of drought tools and products via the GDEWF for countries and regions to develop tailored drought early warning systems for their own users. A key goal of a GDEWS is to maximize the lead time for early warning, allowing drought managers and disaster coordinators more time to put mitigation measures in place to reduce the vulnerability to drought. To address this, the GDEWF will take both a top-down approach to provide global real-time drought monitoring and seasonal forecasting, and a bottom-up approach that builds upon existing national and regional systems to provide continental to global coverage. A number of challenges must be overcome, however, before a GDEWS can become a reality, including the lack of in-situ measurement networks and modest seasonal forecast skill in many regions, and the lack of infrastructure to translate data into useable information. A set of international partners, through a series of recent workshops and evolving collaborations, has made progress towards meeting these challenges and developing a global system.

Visualizing probabilistic flood forecast information: expert preferences and perceptions of best practice in uncertainty communication

The aim of this article is to improve the communication of the probabilistic flood forecasts generated by hydrological ensemble prediction systems (HEPS) by understanding perceptions of different methods of visualizing probabilistic forecast information. This study focuses on interexpert communication and accounts for differences in visualization requirements based on the information content necessary for individual users. The perceptions of the expert group addressed in this study are important because they are the designers and primary users of existing HEPS. Nevertheless, they have sometimes resisted the release of uncertainty information to the general public because of doubts about whether it can be successfully communicated in ways that would be readily understood to nonexperts. In this article, we explore the strengths and weaknesses of existing HEPS visualization methods and thereby formulate some wider recommendations about the best practice for HEPS visualization and communication. We suggest that specific training on probabilistic forecasting would foster use of probabilistic forecasts with a wider range of applications. The result of a case study exercise showed that there is no overarching agreement between experts on how to display probabilistic forecasts and what they consider the essential information that should accompany plots and diagrams. In this article, we propose a list of minimum properties that, if consistently displayed with probabilistic forecasts, would make the products more easily understandable. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

High resolution simulation of the variability of surface energy balance fluxes across central London with urban zones for energy partitioning

The parameterization of surface heat-flux variability in urban areas relies on adequate representation of surface characteristics. Given the horizontal resolutions (e.g. ≈0.1–1km) currently used in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, properties of the urban surface (e.g. vegetated/built surfaces, street-canyon geometries) often have large spatial variability. Here, a new approach based on Urban Zones to characterize Energy partitioning (UZE) is tested within a NWP model (Weather Research and Forecasting model;WRF v3.2.1) for Greater London. The urban land-surface scheme is the Noah/Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM). Detailed surface information (horizontal resolution 1 km)in central London shows that the UZE offers better characterization of surface properties and their variability compared to default WRF-SLUCM input parameters. In situ observations of the surface energy fluxes and near-surface meteorological variables are used to select the radiation and turbulence parameterization schemes and to evaluate the land-surface scheme

Nature of vegetation and building morphology characteristics across a city: influence on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in London

Vegetation and building morphology characteristics are investigated at 19 sites on a north-south LiDAR transect across the megacity of London. Local maxima of mean building height and building plan area density at the city centre are evident. Surprisingly, the mean vegetation height (zv3) is also found to be highest in the city centre. From the LiDAR data various morphological parameters are derived as well as shadow patterns. Continuous images of the effects of buildings and of buildings plus vegetationon sky view factor (Ψ) are derived. A general reduction of Ψ is found, indicating the importance of including vegetation when deriving Ψ in urban areas. The contribution of vegetation to the shadowing at ground level is higher during summer than in autumn. Using these 3D data the influence on urban climate and mean radiant temperature (T mrt ) is calculated with SOLWEIG. The results from these simulations highlight that vegetation can be most effective at reducing heat stress within dense urban environments in summer. The daytime average T mrt is found to be lowest in the densest urban environments due to shadowing; foremost from buildings but also from trees. It is clearly shown that this method could be used to quantify the influence of vegetation on T mrt within the urban environment. The results presented in this paper highlight a number of possible climate sensitive planning practices for urban areas at the local scale (i.e. 102- 5 × 103 m).

The influence of vegetation and building morphology on shadow patterns and mean radiant temperatures in urban areas: model development and evaluation

The solar and longwave environmental irradiance geometry (SOLWEIG) model simulates spatial variations of 3-D radiation fluxes and mean radiant temperature (T mrt) as well as shadow patterns in complex urban settings. In this paper, a new vegetation scheme is included in SOLWEIG and evaluated. The new shadow casting algorithm for complex vegetation structures makes it possible to obtain continuous images of shadow patterns and sky view factors taking both buildings and vegetation into account. For the calculation of 3-D radiation fluxes and T mrt, SOLWEIG only requires a limited number of inputs, such as global shortwave radiation, air temperature, relative humidity, geographical information (latitude, longitude and elevation) and urban geometry represented by high-resolution ground and building digital elevation models (DEM). Trees and bushes are represented by separate DEMs. The model is evaluated using 5 days of integral radiation measurements at two sites within a square surrounded by low-rise buildings and vegetation in Göteborg, Sweden (57°N). There is good agreement between modelled and observed values of T mrt, with an overall correspondence of R 2 = 0.91 (p < 0.01, RMSE = 3.1 K). A small overestimation of T mrt is found at locations shadowed by vegetation. Given this good performance a number of suggestions for future development are identified for applications which include for human comfort, building design, planning and evaluation of instrument exposure.

Local-scale urban meteorological parameterization scheme (LUMPS): longwave radiation parameterization and seasonality-related developments

Recent developments to the Local-scale Urban Meteorological Parameterization Scheme (LUMPS), a simple model able to simulate the urban energy balance, are presented. The major development is the coupling of LUMPS to the Net All-Wave Radiation Parameterization (NARP). Other enhancements include that the model now accounts for the changing availability of water at the surface, seasonal variations of active vegetation, and the anthropogenic heat flux, while maintaining the need for only commonly available meteorological observations and basic surface characteristics. The incoming component of the longwave radiation (L↓) in NARP is improved through a simple relation derived using cloud cover observations from a ceilometer collected in central London, England. The new L↓ formulation is evaluated with two independent multiyear datasets (Łódź, Poland, and Baltimore, Maryland) and compared with alternatives that include the original NARP and a simpler one using the National Climatic Data Center cloud observation database as input. The performance for the surface energy balance fluxes is assessed using a 2-yr dataset (Łódź). Results have an overall RMSE < 34 W m−2 for all surface energy balance fluxes over the 2-yr period when

Ensemble forecasting using TIGGE for the July-September 2008 floods in the Upper Huai catchment: a case study.

We present a case study using the TIGGE database for flood warning in the Upper Huai catchment (ca. 30 672 km2). TIGGE ensemble forecasts from 6 meteorological centres with 10-day lead time were extracted and disaggregated to drive the Xinanjiang model to forecast discharges for flood events in July-September 2008. The results demonstrated satisfactory flood forecasting skills with clear signals of floods up to 10 days in advance. The forecasts occasionally show discrepancies both in time and space. Forecasting quality could potentially be improved by using temporal and spatial corrections of the forecasted precipitation.