Sensitivity of GCM tropical middle atmosphere variability and climate to ozone and parametrized gravity wave changes

This paper describes the impact of changing the current imposed ozone climatology upon the tropical Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) in a high top climate configuration of the Met Office U.K. general circulation model. The aim is to help distinguish between QBO changes in chemistry climate models that result from temperature-ozone feedbacks and those that might be forced by differences in climatology between previously fixed and newly interactive ozone distributions. Different representations of zonal mean ozone climatology under present-day conditions are taken to represent the level of change expected between acceptable model realizations of the global ozone distribution and thus indicate whether more detailed investigation of such climatology issues might be required when assessing ozone feedbacks. Tropical stratospheric ozone concentrations are enhanced relative to the control climatology between 20–30 km, reduced from 30–40 km and enhanced above, impacting the model profile of clear-sky radiative heating, in particular warming the tropical stratosphere between 15–35 km. The outcome is consistent with a localized equilibrium response in the tropical stratosphere that generates increased upwelling between 100 and 4 hPa, sufficient to account for a 12 month increase of modeled mean QBO period. This response has implications for analysis of the tropical circulation in models with interactive ozone chemistry because it highlights the possibility that plausible changes in the ozone climatology could have a sizable impact upon the tropical upwelling and QBO period that ought to be distinguished from other dynamical responses such as ozone-temperature feedbacks.

Elephants and ivory

Counting elephants ought to be easy. It is not. Counting elephants lost to poaching is even harder. But, without knowledge of both, how can we know whether banning the sale of ivory is helping to save elephants?Bob Burn explains the problems.

Toughness, the shearing of self-mated junctions and friction

Since ductile fracture (rupture) is the process by which junctions are separated and which prevents ever-increasing plasticity and junction growth, it is argued that models of friction ought to include toughness as well as yield strength. An expression for the coefficient of sliding friction is derived using ductile fracture mechanics. The predictions are quite reasonable.

Unifying syntactic theory and sentence processing difficulty through a connectionist minimalist parser

Syntactic theory provides a rich array of representational assumptions about linguistic knowledge and processes. Such detailed and independently motivated constraints on grammatical knowledge ought to play a role in sentence comprehension. However most grammar-based explanations of processing difficulty in the literature have attempted to use grammatical representations and processes per se to explain processing difficulty. They did not take into account that the description of higher cognition in mind and brain encompasses two levels: on the one hand, at the macrolevel, symbolic computation is performed, and on the other hand, at the microlevel, computation is achieved through processes within a dynamical system. One critical question is therefore how linguistic theory and dynamical systems can be unified to provide an explanation for processing effects. Here, we present such a unification for a particular account to syntactic theory: namely a parser for Stabler's Minimalist Grammars, in the framework of Smolensky's Integrated Connectionist/Symbolic architectures. In simulations we demonstrate that the connectionist minimalist parser produces predictions which mirror global empirical findings from psycholinguistic research.

Challenges and opportunities facing contractors in Ghana

The main aim of this study was to ascertain and discuss the current challenges and opportunities facing construction contractors in Ghana. This involved a review of the economic, legal and political environments in which contractors in Ghana operate; a review of published studies on construction in developing countries generally and Ghana specifically; and in-depth interviews and discussions with seven building and civil engineering contractors in Ghana in 2009 and 2010. Six road contractors were also interviewed. The findings indicate significant challenges relating mainly to financing for projects and a harsh business environment. However, most contractors interviewed admitted to significant problems in their own organisations. It is clear that the contracting environment in Ghana is harsh particularly for local contractors who are often not paid on time and without compensation for late payment. However, local construction firms in Ghana who want to breakthrough ought to formulate the right strategic plans, develop innovative business strategies, develop professionalism, and merge with local firms with similar organisational values and characteristics. In short, local or indigenous Ghanaian contractors ought to face up to the reality of competition and the dynamics of modern business in order to survive, grow and become major players in the construction industry in Ghana.

Multispacecraft observation of magnetic cloud erosion by magnetic reconnection during propagation

During propagation, Magnetic Clouds (MC) interact with their environment and, in particular, may reconnect with the solar wind around it, eroding away part of its initial magnetic flux. Here we quantitatively analyze such an interaction using combined, multipoint observations of the same MC flux rope by STEREO A, B, ACE, WIND and THEMIS on November 19–20, 2007. Observation of azimuthal magnetic flux imbalance inside a MC flux rope has been argued to stem from erosion due to magnetic reconnection at its front boundary. The present study adds to such analysis a large set of signatures expected from this erosion process. (1) Comparison of azimuthal flux imbalance for the same MC at widely separated points precludes the crossing of the MC leg as a source of bias in flux imbalance estimates. (2) The use of different methods, associated errors and parametric analyses show that only an unexpectedly large error in MC axis orientation could explain the azimuthal flux imbalance. (3) Reconnection signatures are observed at the MC front at all spacecraft, consistent with an ongoing erosion process. (4) Signatures in suprathermal electrons suggest that the trailing part of the MC has a different large-scale magnetic topology, as expected. The azimuthal magnetic flux erosion estimated at ACE and STEREO A corresponds respectively to 44% and 49% of the inferred initial azimuthal magnetic flux before MC erosion upon propagation. The corresponding average reconnection rate during transit is estimated to be in the range 0.12–0.22 mV/m, suggesting most of the erosion occurs in the inner parts of the heliosphere. Future studies ought to quantify the influence of such an erosion process on geo-effectiveness.

Protecting recognized Geneva Convention refugees outside their states of asylum

This article highlights the predicament of persons recognized as refugees according to the Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees (CSR1951 refugees) when they travel outside their state of asylum. Their status entails ipso facto that, if they are ill-treated abroad, they cannot turn to representatives of their state of nationality and request its diplomatic protection, nor can they expect to receive its consular assistance. It is submitted that a state of asylum ought to extend the scope of protection that it offers CSR1951 refugees residing in its territory, and provide them diplomatic protection and consular assistance when they travel abroad as if they were its nationals. Four claims are advanced in support of this contention: First: the advent of human rights treaties has not rendered obsolete the protection of nationals abroad nor has the practice fallen into disuse. On the contrary, protection abroad retains its pedigree and significance, as is illustrated by the recently adopted International Law Commission's Draft Articles on Diplomatic Protection and by frequent resort to consular assistance. Second: while states previously enjoyed unfettered discretion concerning whether and when to protect their nationals abroad, recent developments in domestic jurisdictions as well as in European Union (EU) treaties point to the potential emergence of a qualified duty to exercise state protection or to be willing to provide justifications for its refusal. These developments call particular attention to the vulnerability of CSR1951 refugees: the professed aim of the EU treaty regime is that EU citizens should enjoy effective state protection wherever they travel; by contrast, CSR1951 refugees are in need of state protection wherever they travel. Third: according to CSR1951, states of asylum are required to issue Convention Travel Documents (CTDs) to recognized refugees lawfully staying in their territory. While CTDs do not in of themselves authorize states of asylum to provide protection abroad to their CSR1951 refugees, they reflect partial recognition of the instrumental role of these states in facilitating safe refugee travel. Fourth: while the 'nationality of claims' requirement remains pivotal to the institution of diplomatic protection, and efforts to effectuate its general relaxation have thus far failed, the International Law Commission (ILC) has 'carved out' an exception authorizing states of asylum to provide protection abroad to their recognized refugees. The ILC's protection-enhancing agenda, reflecting progressive development of the law, is laudable, even though it has opted for a rather cautious approach.

Potential Predictability and AMIP Implications of Midlatitude Climate Variability in Two General Circulation Models

Ensembles of extended Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) runs from the general circulation models of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (formerly the National Meteorological Center) and the Max-Planck Institute (Hamburg, Germany) are used to estimate the potential predictability (PP) of an index of the Pacific–North America (PNA) mode of climate change. The PP of this pattern in “perfect” prediction experiments is 20%–25% of the index’s variance. The models, particularly that from MPI, capture virtually all of this variance in their hindcasts of the winter PNA for the period 1970–93. The high levels of internally generated model noise in the PNA simulations reconfirm the need for an ensemble averaging approach to climate prediction. This means that the forecasts ought to be expressed in a probabilistic manner. It is shown that the models’ skills are higher by about 50% during strong SST events in the tropical Pacific, so the probabilistic forecasts need to be conditional on the tropical SST. Taken together with earlier studies, the present results suggest that the original set of AMIP integrations (single 10-yr runs) is not adequate to reliably test the participating models’ simulations of interannual climate variability in the midlatitudes.

Public values and community energy: lessons from the US and UK

This paper examines some of the normative aspects of community energy programmes — defined here as decentralized forms of energy production and distributed energy technologies where production decisions are made as close as possible to sources of consumption. Such projects might also display a degree of separation from the formal political process. The development of a community energy system often generates a great deal of debate about both the degree of public support for such programmes and the values around which programmes ought to be organized. Community energy programmes also raise important issues regarding the energy choice problem, including questions of process, that is, by whom a project is developed and the influence of both community and exogenous actors, as well as certain outcome issues regarding the spatial and social distribution of energy. The case studies, drawn from community energy programmes in both the United States and the United Kingdom, allow for a careful examination of all of these factors, considering in particular the complex interplay and juxtaposition between the ideas of 'public value' and 'public values'.

Interpersonal interaction and economic theory: the case of public goods

Interpersonal interaction in public goods contexts is very different in character to its depiction in economic theory, despite the fact that the standard model is based on a small number of apparently plausible assumptions. Approaches to the problem are reviewed both from within and outside economics. It is argued that quick fixes such as a taste for giving do not provide a way forward. An improved understanding of why people contribute to such goods seems to require a different picture of the relationships between individuals than obtains in standard microeconomic theory, where they are usually depicted as asocial. No single economic model at present is consistent with all the relevant field and laboratory data. It is argued that there are defensible ideas from outside the discipline which ought to be explored, relying on different conceptions of rationality and/or more radically social agents. Three such suggestions are considered, one concerning the expressive/communicative aspect of behaviour, a second the possibility of a part-whole relationship between interacting agents and the third a version of conformism.

Creativity and Growth in: Edmund Phelps (2013),Mass Flourishing. How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge and Change

This article reviews the thesis presented by Edmund Phelps, Mass Flourishing. How Grassroots Innovation Created Jobs, Challenge and Change (Princeton University Press, 2013) that modern economic growth is an indirect outcome of human creativity, and that the object of enlightened policy ought to be to promote this creativity, or flourishing, rather than economic growth per se. The book is a remarkable contribution to the literature on economic growth, with its focus on how entrepreneurship and innovation generates endogenous growth and, more importantly to the author, improves human satisfaction.

Pre-Raphaelitism, science and the arts in 'The Germ'

This article demonstrates for the first time how dense the references to science are within the Pre-Raphaelite periodical 'The Germ' (1850). By reading the essays from this magazine together, as they were first published, it is possible to see how thoroughly the Pre-Raphaelites theorised their artistic project in terms of a particular mid-Victorian ideal of science. At the same time, the magazine became a forum in which the question of how far the arts ought to take account of science could be debated. In this debate, the competing visions of Pre-Raphaelitism discussed in Holman Hunt’s later accounts of the movement can be seen emerging at a very early stage in its history.

Information and predictability: bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters as forecasters

The more information is available, and the more predictable are events, the better forecasts ought to be. In this paper forecasts by bookmakers, prediction markets and tipsters are evaluated for a range of events with varying degrees of predictability and information availability. All three types of forecast represent different structures of information processing and as such would be expected to perform differently. By and large, events that are more predictable, and for which more information is available, do tend to be forecast better.

Queering Philip Roth: homosocial discourse in 'An actor’s life for me', 'Letting go', 'Sabbath’s theater' and the 'American trilogy'

Much has been written on Roth’s representation of masculinity, but this critical discourse has tended to be situated within a heteronormative frame of reference, perhaps because of Roth’s popular reputation as an aggressively heterosexual, libidinous, masculinist, in some versions sexist or even misogynist author. In this essay I argue that Roth’s representation of male sexuality is more complex, ambiguous, and ambivalent than has been generally recognized. Tracing a strong thread of what I call homosocial discourse running through Roth’s oeuvre, I suggest that the series of intimate relationships with other men that many of Roth’s protagonists form are conspicuously couched in this discourse and that a recognition of this ought to reconfigure our sense of the sexual politics of Roth’s career, demonstrating in particular that masculinity in his work is too fluid and dynamic to be accommodated by the conventional binaries of heterosexual and homosexual, feminized Jew and hyper-masculine Gentile, the “ordinary sexual man” and the transgressively desiring male subject.

Making: the invisible visible

In this book essay I argue that modern and contemporary works of art (i.e. paintings, photographs, films, and videos) really ought to retrieve something of their auratic-character, which turns the physical toward the metaphysical, the material toward the immaterial, the visible toward the invisible - making artworks, ‘things among things, something other than [a] thing’ (Theodor W. Adorno, Aesthetic Theory, 86). There is, perhaps, an aura to art or art is a medium or a conduit or a technology for rediscovering and reproducing aura, which makes it something other than a mere thing. Such works of art are constitutively enigmatic, a certain form of magic making: they (re-)distribute the visible and the invisible, they (re-)configure appearance and disappearance. Such works of art may become visual events, which begin an education in and through (dis-)appearances. To achieve this end, I detail Theodor W. Adorno’s and Walter Benjamin’s respective theories of (art’s) aura in the age of technological reproducibility, which I relate to Jacques Rancière’s more recent discussion of the ‘pensive image,’ and I focus my reading on a number of works by Susan Hiller (photographs), John Constable (paintings), Alfred Stieglitz (photographs), and Tacita Dean (photograph and 16mm film).