UK construction orders and output: A comparison of government and commercially available data 1995-2001

Because of the importance and potential usefulness of construction market statistics to firms and government, consistency between different sources of data is examined with a view to building a predictive model of construction output using construction data alone. However, a comparison of Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) and Office for National Statistics (ONS) series shows that the correlation coefcient (used as a measure of consistency) of the DTI output and DTI orders data and the correlation coefficient of the DTI output and ONS output data are low. It is not possible to derive a predictive model of DTI output based on DTI orders data alone. The question arises whether or not an alternative independent source of data may be used to predict DTI output data. Independent data produced by Emap Glenigan (EG), based on planning applications, potentially offers such a source of information. The EG data records the value of planning applications and their planned start and finish dates. However, as this data is ex ante and is not correlated with DTI output it is not possible to use this data to describe the volume of actual construction output. Nor is it possible to use the EG planning data to predict DTI construc-tion orders data. Further consideration of the issues raised reveal that it is not practically possible to develop a consistent predictive model of construction output using construction statistics gathered at different stages in the development process.

War, Peace and World Orders from Antiquity until the 20th century

Chapters contributed by experts on each period examine how world views have determined the view of war and peace, and the conduct of war, throughout European history.

Stratosphere-troposphere transport in a numerical simulation of midlatitude convection

The transport of stratospheric air deep into the troposphere via convection is investigated numerically using the UK Met Office Unified Model. A convective system that formed on 27 June 2004 near southeast England, in the vicinity an upper level potential vorticity anomaly and a lowered tropopause, provides the basis for analysis. Transport is diagnosed using a stratospheric tracer that can either be passed through or withheld from the model’s convective parameterization scheme. Three simulations are performed at increasingly finer resolutions, with horizontal grid lengths of 12, 4, and 1 km. In the 12 and 4 km simulations, tracer is transported deeply into the troposphere by the parameterized convection. In the 1 km simulation, for which the convective parameterization is disengaged, deep transport is still accomplished but with a much smaller magnitude. However, the 1 km simulation resolves stirring along the tropopause that does not exist in the coarser simulations. In all three simulations, the concentration of the deeply transported tracer is small, three orders of magnitude less than that of the shallow transport near the tropopause, most likely because of the efficient dilution of parcels in the lower troposphere.

Calculating the ocean's mean dynamic topography from a mean sea surface and a geoid

In principle the global mean geostrophic surface circulation of the ocean can be diagnosed by subtracting a geoid from a mean sea surface (MSS). However, because the resulting mean dynamic topography (MDT) is approximately two orders of magnitude smaller than either of the constituent surfaces, and because the geoid is most naturally expressed as a spectral model while the MSS is a gridded product, in practice complications arise. Two algorithms for combining MSS and satellite-derived geoid data to determine the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) are considered in this paper: a pointwise approach, whereby the gridded geoid height field is subtracted from the gridded MSS; and a spectral approach, whereby the spherical harmonic coefficients of the geoid are subtracted from an equivalent set of coefficients representing the MSS, from which the gridded MDT is then obtained. The essential difference is that with the latter approach the MSS is truncated, a form of filtering, just as with the geoid. This ensures that errors of omission resulting from the truncation of the geoid, which are small in comparison to the geoid but large in comparison to the MDT, are matched, and therefore negated, by similar errors of omission in the MSS. The MDTs produced by both methods require additional filtering. However, the spectral MDT requires less filtering to remove noise, and therefore it retains more oceanographic information than its pointwise equivalent. The spectral method also results in a more realistic MDT at coastlines. 1. Introduction An important challenge in oceanography is the accurate determination of the ocean’s time-mean dynamic topography (MDT). If this can be achieved with sufficient accuracy for combination with the timedependent component of the dynamic topography, obtainable from altimetric data, then the resulting sum (i.e., the absolute dynamic topography) will give an accurate picture of surface geostrophic currents and ocean transports.

Conductive elastomeric composites

Conductive elastic materials are formed by distributing conductive particles within an elastic polymer. We consider a novel composite based on dendritic nickel particles that exhibit remarkably strong negative piezoresistivity with an increase in conductivity of up to 10 orders of magnitude with strains of the order of 0.2. A vital factor for the conductivity of conductive elastomers is the concentration of conductive fillers and many aspects can be understood in terms of percolation theory. In this system the concentration of particles within the composite does not change with strain, yet due to the shape of the particles, the concentration of electrical contacts between the particles does change. We have developed a new model based on the concentration of contact sites, rather than particles which enables us to successfully model this remarkable strain-dependence of conductivity.

A Proposed Modification to the Robert–Asselin Time Filter

The Robert–Asselin time filter is widely used in numerical models of weather and climate. It successfully suppresses the spurious computational mode associated with the leapfrog time-stepping scheme. Unfortunately, it also weakly suppresses the physical mode and severely degrades the numerical accuracy. These two concomitant problems are shown to occur because the filter does not conserve the mean state, averaged over the three time slices on which it operates. The author proposes a simple modification to the Robert–Asselin filter, which does conserve the three-time-level mean state. When used in conjunction with the leapfrog scheme, the modification vastly reduces the impacts on the physical mode and increases the numerical accuracy for amplitude errors by two orders, yielding third-order accuracy. The modified filter could easily be incorporated into existing general circulation models of the atmosphere and ocean. In principle, it should deliver more faithful simulations at almost no additional computational expense. Alternatively, it may permit the use of longer time steps with no loss of accuracy, reducing the computational expense of a given simulation.

Variograms of ancillary data to aid sampling for soil surveys

To provide reliable estimates for mapping soil properties for precision agriculture requires intensive sampling and costly laboratory analyses. If the spatial structure of ancillary data, such as yield, digital information from aerial photographs, and soil electrical conductivity (EC) measurements, relates to that of soil properties they could be used to guide the sampling intensity for soil surveys. Variograins of permanent soil properties at two study sites on different parent materials were compared with each other and with those for ancillary data. The ranges of spatial dependence identified by the variograms of both sets of properties are of similar orders of magnitude for each study site, Maps of the ancillary data appear to show similar patterns of variation and these seem to relate to those of the permanent properties of the soil. Correlation analysis has confirmed these relations. Maps of kriged estimates from sub-sampled data and the original variograrns showed that the main patterns of variation were preserved when a sampling interval of less than half the average variogram range of ancillary data was used. Digital data from aerial photographs for different years and EC appear to show a more consistent relation with the soil properties than does yield. Aerial photographs, in particular those of bare soil, seem to be the most useful ancillary data and they are often cheaper to obtain than yield and EC data.