The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr - Part 4: Near-Earth solar wind speed, IMF, and open solar flux

In the concluding paper of this tetralogy, we here use the different geomagnetic activity indices to reconstruct the near-Earth interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) and solar wind flow speed, as well as the open solar flux (OSF) from 1845 to the present day. The differences in how the various indices vary with near-Earth interplanetary parameters, which are here exploited to separate the effects of the IMF and solar wind speed, are shown to be statistically significant at the 93% level or above. Reconstructions are made using four combinations of different indices, compiled using different data and different algorithms, and the results are almost identical for all parameters. The correction to the aa index required is discussed by comparison with the Ap index from a more extensive network of mid-latitude stations. Data from the Helsinki magnetometer station is used to extend the aa index back to 1845 and the results confirmed by comparison with the nearby St Petersburg observatory. The optimum variations, using all available long-term geomagnetic indices, of the near-Earth IMF and solar wind speed, and of the open solar flux, are presented; all with ±2sigma� uncertainties computed using the Monte Carlo technique outlined in the earlier papers. The open solar flux variation derived is shown to be very similar indeed to that obtained using the method of Lockwood et al. (1999).

Teaching programming to beginners in a massive open online course

The University of Reading’s first Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) “Begin Programming: Build your first mobile game” (#FLMobiGame) was offered in Autumn 2013 on the FutureLearn platform. This course used a simple Android game framework to present basic programming concepts to complete beginners. The course attracted wide interest from all age groups. The course presented opportunities and challenges to both participants and educators. While some participants had difficulties accessing content some others had trouble grasping the concepts and applying them in a real program. Managing forums was cumbersome with the limited facilities supported by the Beta-platform. A healthy community was formed around the course with the support of social media. The case study reported here is part of an ongoing research programme exploring participants’ MOOC engagement and experience using a grounded, ethnographical approach.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 1. correction of the sunspot number record since 1874

We analyse the widely-used international/ Zürich sunspot number record, R, with a view to quantifying a suspected calibration discontinuity around 1945 (which has been termed the “Waldmeier discontinuity” [Svalgaard, 2011]). We compare R against the composite sunspot group data from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) network and the Solar Optical Observing Network (SOON), using both the number of sunspot groups, N{sub}G{\sub}, and the total area of the sunspots, A{sub}G{\sub}. In addition, we compare R with the recently developed interdiurnal variability geomagnetic indices IDV and IDV(1d). In all four cases, linearity of the relationship with R is not assumed and care is taken to ensure that the relationship of each with R is the same before and after the putative calibration change. It is shown the probability that a correction is not needed is of order 10{sup}−8{\sup} and that R is indeed too low before 1945. The optimum correction to R for values before 1945 is found to be 11.6%, 11.7%, 10.3% and 7.9% using A{sub}G{\sub}, N{sub)G{\sub}, IDV, and IDV(1d), respectively. The optimum value obtained by combining the sunspot group data is 11.6% with an uncertainty range 8.1-14.8% at the 2σ level. The geomagnetic indices provide an independent yet less stringent test but do give values that fall within the 2σ uncertainty band with optimum values are slightly lower than from the sunspot group data. The probability of the correction needed being as large as 20%, as advocated by Svalgaard [2011], is shown to be 1.6 × 10{sup}−5{\sup}.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 2. Comparison with the geomagnetic data

We investigate the relationship between interdiurnal variation geomagnetic activity indices, IDV and IDV(1d), corrected sunspot number, R{sub}C{\sub}, and the group sunspot number R{sub}G{\sub}. R{sub}C{\sub} uses corrections for both the “Waldmeier discontinuity”, as derived in Paper 1 [Lockwood et al., 2014c], and the “Wolf discontinuity” revealed by Leussu et al. [2013]. We show that the simple correlation of the geomagnetic indices with R{sub}C{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} or R{sub}G{\sub}{sup}n{\sup} masks a considerable solar cycle variation. Using IDV(1d) or IDV to predict or evaluate the sunspot numbers, the errors are almost halved by allowing for the fact that the relationship varies over the solar cycle. The results indicate that differences between R{sub}C{\sub} and R{sub}G{\sub} have a variety of causes and are highly unlikely to be attributable to errors in either R{sub}G{\sub} alone, as has recently been assumed. Because it is not known if R{sub}C{\sub} or R{sub}G{\sub} is a better predictor of open flux emergence before 1874, a simple sunspot number composite is suggested which, like R{sub}G{\sub}, enables modelling of the open solar flux for 1610 onwards in Paper 3, but maintains the characteristics of R{sub}C{\sub}.

Centennial variations in sunspot number, open solar flux and streamer belt width: 3. Modelling

From the variation of near-Earth interplanetary conditions, reconstructed for the mid-19th century to the present day using historic geomagnetic activity observations, Lockwood and Owens [2014] have suggested that Earth remains within a broadened streamer belt during solar cycles when the Open Solar Flux (OSF) is low. From this they propose that the Earth was immersed in almost constant slow solar wind during the Maunder minimum (c. 1650-1710). In this paper, we extend continuity modelling of the OSF to predict the streamer belt width using both group sunspot numbers and corrected international sunspot numbers to quantify the emergence rate of new OSF. The results support the idea that the solar wind at Earth was persistently slow during the Maunder minimum because the streamer belt was broad.

Massive Open Online Courses on health and medicine: review

Background: Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become immensely popular in a short span of time. However, there is very little research exploring MOOCs in the discipline of Health and Medicine. This paper is aimed to fill this void by providing a review of Health and Medicine related MOOCs. Objective: Provide a review of Health and Medicine related MOOCs offered by various MOOC platforms within the year 2013. Analyze and compare the various offerings, their target audience, typical length of a course and credentials offered. Discuss opportunities and challenges presented by MOOCs in the discipline of Health and Medicine. Methods: Health and Medicine related MOOCs were gathered using several methods to ensure the richness and completeness of data. Identified MOOC platform websites were used to gather the lists of offerings. In parallel, these MOOC platforms were contacted to access official data on their offerings. Two MOOC aggregator sites (Class Central and MOOC List) were also consulted to gather data on MOOC offerings. Eligibility criteria were defined to concentrate on the courses that were offered in 2013 and primarily on the subject ‘Health and Medicine’. All language translations in this paper were achieved using Google Translate. Results: The search identified 225 courses out of which 98 were eligible for the review (n = 98). 58% (57) of the MOOCs considered were offered on the Coursera platform and 94% (92) of all the MOOCs were offered in English. 90 MOOCs were offered by universities and the John Hopkins University offered the largest number of MOOCs (12). Only three MOOCs were offered by developing countries (China, West Indies, and Saudi Arabia). The duration of MOOCs varied from three weeks to 20 weeks with an average length of 6.7 weeks. On average MOOCs expected a participant to work on the material for 4.2 hours a week. Verified Certificates were offered by 14 MOOCs while three others offered other professional recognition. Conclusions: The review presents evidence to suggest that MOOCs can be used as a way to provide continuous medical education. It also shows the potential of MOOCs as a means of increasing health literacy among the public.

The XWS open access catalogue of extreme European windstorms from 1979 to 2012

The XWS (eXtreme WindStorms) catalogue consists of storm tracks and model-generated maximum 3 s wind-gust footprints for 50 of the most extreme winter windstorms to hit Europe in the period 1979–2012. The catalogue is intended to be a valuable resource for both academia and industries such as (re)insurance, for example allowing users to characterise extreme European storms, and validate climate and catastrophe models. Several storm severity indices were investigated to find which could best represent a list of known high-loss (severe) storms. The best-performing index was Sft, which is a combination of storm area calculated from the storm footprint and maximum 925 hPa wind speed from the storm track. All the listed severe storms are included in the catalogue, and the remaining ones were selected using Sft. A comparison of the model footprint to station observations revealed that storms were generally well represented, although for some storms the highest gusts were underestimated. Possible reasons for this underestimation include the model failing to simulate strong enough pressure gradients and not representing convective gusts. A new recalibration method was developed to estimate the true distribution of gusts at each grid point and correct for this underestimation. The recalibration model allows for storm-to-storm variation which is essential given that different storms have different degrees of model bias. The catalogue is available at www.europeanwindstorms.org.

Massive Open Online Courses and sustainability

Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have become very popular among learners millions of users from around the world registered with leading platforms. There are hundreds of universities (and other organizations) offering MOOCs. However, sustainability of MOOCs is a pressing concern as MOOCs incur up front creation costs, maintenance costs to keep content relevant and on-going support costs to provide facilitation while a course is being run. At present, charging a fee for certification (for example Coursera Signature Track and FutureLearn Statement of Completion) seems a popular business model. In this paper, the authors discuss other possible business models and their pros and cons. Some business models discussed here are: Freemium model – providing content freely but charging for premium services such as course support, tutoring and proctored exams. Sponsorships – courses can be created in collaboration with industry where industry sponsorships are used to cover the costs of course production and offering. For example Teaching Computing course was offered by the University of East Anglia on the FutureLearn platform with the sponsorship from British Telecom while the UK Government sponsored the course Introduction to Cyber Security offered by the Open University on FutureLearn. Initiatives and Grants – The government, EU commission or corporations could commission the creation of courses through grants and initiatives according to the skills gap identified for the economy. For example, the UK Government’s National Cyber Security Programme has supported a course on Cyber Security. Similar initiatives could also provide funding to support relevant course development and offering. Donations – Free software, Wikipedia and early OER initiatives such as the MIT OpenCourseware accept donations from the public and this could well be used as a business model where learners could contribute (if they wish) to the maintenance and facilitation of a course. Merchandise – selling merchandise could also bring revenue to MOOCs. As many participants do not seek formal recognition (European Commission, 2014) for their completion of a MOOC, merchandise that presents their achievement in a playful way could well be attractive for them. Sale of supplementary material –supplementary course material in the form of an online or physical book or similar could be sold with the revenue being reinvested in the course delivery. Selective advertising – courses could have advertisements relevant to learners Data sharing – though a controversial topic, sharing learner data with relevant employers or similar could be another revenue model for MOOCs. Follow on events – the courses could lead to follow on summer schools, courses or other real-life or online events that are paid-for in which case a percentage of the revenue could be passed on to the MOOC for its upkeep. Though these models are all possible ways of generating revenue for MOOCs, some are more controversial and sensitive than others. Nevertheless unless appropriate business models are identified the sustainability of MOOCs would be problematic.

‘Open sesame!’ How panto can pave the way for inclusion in theatre

This paper examines how ‘relaxed performances’ are being offered by an increasing number of mainstream theatres so children with complex individual needs and their families can enjoy the social and cultural experience of live theatre. The paper explains the origins of the relaxed performance initiative, what such performances entail and how they can contribute to both children’s learning and the cause of social justice. A case study is made of how one medium sized provincial theatre offered a relaxed performance of its annual pantomime in the 2013-14 season and the impact its subsequent 2014-15 production has had on families living with autistic spectrum disorder.

Biodiversity and green open space

Biodiversity has been defined as the totality of genes, species, and ecosystems that inhabit the earth with the field contributing to many aspects of our lives and livelihoods by providing us with food, drink, medicines and shelter, as well as contributing to improving our surrounding environment. Benefits include providing life services through improved horticultural production, improving the business and service of horticulture as well as our environment, as well as improving our health and wellbeing, and our social and cultural relationships. Threats to biodiversity can include fragmentation, degradation and deforestation of habitat, introduction of invasive and exotic species, climate change and extreme weather events, over-exploitation of our natural resources, hybridisation, genetic pollution/erosion and food security issues and human overpopulation. This chapter examines a series of examples that provide the dual aims of biodiversity conservation and horticultural production and service; namely organic horticultural cropping, turf management, and nature-based tourism, and ways of valuing biological biodiversity such as the payment of environmental services and bio-prospecting. Horticulture plays a major role in the preserving of biodiversity.

GPR30 activation decreases anxiety in the open field test but not in the elevated plus maze test in female mice

The GPR30 is a novel estrogen receptor (ER) that is a candidate membrane ER based on its binding to 17beta estradiol and its rapid signaling properties such as activation of the extracellular-regulated kinase (ERK) pathway. Its distribution in the mouse limbic system predicts a role for this receptor in the estrogenic modulation of anxiety behaviors in the mouse. A previous study showed that chronic administration of a selective agonist to the GPR30 receptor, G-1, in the female rat can improve spatial memory, suggesting that GPR30 plays a role in hippocampal-dependent cognition. In this study, we investigated the effect of a similar chronic administration of G-1 on behaviors that denote anxiety in adult ovariectomized female mice, using the elevated plus maze (EPM) and the open field test as well as the activation of the ERK pathway in the hippocampus. Although estradiol benzoate had no effect on behaviors in the EPM or the open field, G-1 had an anxiolytic effect solely in the open field that was independent of ERK signaling in either the ventral or dorsal hippocampus. Such an anxiolytic effect may underlie the ability of G-1 to increase spatial memory, by acting on the hippocampus.