A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Biodiversity versus emergencies: the impact of restocking on animal genetic resources after disaster

Restocking is a favoured option in supporting livelihoods after a disaster. With the depletion of local livestock populations, the introduction of new species and breeds will clearly affect biodiversity. Nevertheless, the impact of restocking on Animal Genetic Resources has been largely ignored. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to examine the consequences of restocking on biodiversity via a simple model. Utilising a hypothetical project based on cattle, the model demonstrates that more than one-third of the population was related to the original restocked animals after three generations. Under conditions of random breed selection, the figure declined to 20 per cent. The tool was then applied to a donor-led restocking project implemented in Bosnia-Herzegovina. By restocking primarily with Simmental cattle, the model demonstrated that the implementation of a single restocking project is likely to have accelerated the decline of the indigenous Busa breed by a further nine per cent. Thus, greater awareness of the long-term implications of restocking on biodiversity is required.

Bio-diversity versus emergencies: the impact of restocking on animal genetic resources after disaster

Restocking is a favoured option in supporting livelihoods after a disaster. With the depletion of local livestock populations, the introduction of new species and breeds will clearly affect biodiversity. Nevertheless, the impact of restocking on Animal Genetic Resources has been largely ignored. The aim of this paper, therefore, is to examine the consequences of restocking on biodiversity via a simple model. Utilising a hypothetical project based on cattle, the model demonstrates that more than one-third of the population was related to the original restocked animals after three generations. Under conditions of random breed selection, the figure declined to 20 per cent. The tool was then applied to a donor-led restocking project implemented in Bosnia-Herzegovina. By restocking primarily with Simmental cattle, the model demonstrated that the implementation of a single restocking project is likely to have accelerated the decline of the indigenous Buşa breed by a further nine per cent. Thus, greater awareness of the long-term implications of restocking on biodiversity is required.

On-line processing of wh-questions in children with G-SLI and typically developing children

Background: The computational grammatical complexity ( CGC) hypothesis claims that children with G(rammatical)-specific language impairment ( SLI) have a domain-specific deficit in the computational system affecting syntactic dependencies involving 'movement'. One type of such syntactic dependencies is filler-gap dependencies. In contrast, the Generalized Slowing Hypothesis claims that SLI children have a domain-general deficit affecting processing speed and capacity. Aims: To test contrasting accounts of SLI we investigate processing of syntactic (filler-gap) dependencies in wh-questions. Methods & Procedures: Fourteen 10; 2 - 17; 2 G-SLI children, 14 age- matched and 17 vocabulary-matched controls were studied using the cross- modal picturepriming paradigm. Outcomes & Results: G-SLI children's processing speed was significantly slower than the age controls, but not younger vocabulary controls. The G- SLI children and vocabulary controls did not differ on memory span. However, the typically developing and G-SLI children showed a qualitatively different processing pattern. The age and vocabulary controls showed priming at the gap, indicating that they process wh-questions through syntactic filler-gap dependencies. In contrast, G-SLI children showed priming only at the verb. Conclusions: The findings indicate that G-SLI children fail to establish reliably a syntactic filler- gap dependency and instead interpret wh-questions via lexical thematic information. These data challenge the Generalized Slowing Hypothesis account, but support the CGC hypothesis, according to which G-SLI children have a particular deficit in the computational system affecting syntactic dependencies involving 'movement'. As effective remediation often depends on aetiological insight, the discovery of the nature of the syntactic deficit, along side a possible compensatory use of semantics to facilitate sentence processing, can be used to direct therapy. However, the therapeutic strategy to be used, and whether such similar strengths and weaknesses within the language system are found in other SLI subgroups are empirical issues that warrant further research.

An on-line algorithm of uncertain time delay estimation in a continuous system

In this paper, we present an on-line estimation algorithm for an uncertain time delay in a continuous system based on the observational input-output data, subject to observational noise. The first order Pade approximation is used to approximate the time delay. At each time step, the algorithm combines the well known Kalman filter algorithm and the recursive instrumental variable least squares (RIVLS) algorithm in cascade form. The instrumental variable least squares algorithm is used in order to achieve the consistency of the delay parameter estimate, since an error-in-the-variable model is involved. An illustrative example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

On-line handwritten segmentation in linear drawings

This paper addresses the problem of tracking line segments corresponding to on-line handwritten obtained through a digitizer tablet. The approach is based on Kalman filtering to model linear portions of on-line handwritten, particularly, handwritten numerals, and to detect abrupt changes in handwritten direction underlying a model change. This approach uses a Kalman filter framework constrained by a normalized line equation, where quadratic terms are linearized through a first-order Taylor expansion. The modeling is then carried out under the assumption that the state is deterministic and time-invariant, while the detection relies on double thresholding mechanism which tests for a violation of this assumption. The first threshold is based on an approach of layout kinetics. The second one takes into account the jump in angle between the past observed direction of layout and its current direction. The method proposed enables real-time processing. To illustrate the methodology proposed, some results obtained from handwritten numerals are presented.

The implications of climate policy for the impacts of climate change on global water resources

This paper assesses the implications of climate policy for exposure to water resources stresses. It compares a Reference scenario which leads to an increase in global mean temperature of 4oC by the end of the 21st century with a Mitigation scenario which stabilises greenhouse gas concentrations at around 450ppm CO2e and leads to a 2oC increase in 2100. Associated changes in river runoff are simulated using a global hydrological model, for four spatial patterns of change in temperature and rainfall. There is a considerable difference in hydrological change between these four patterns, but the percentages of change avoided at the global scale are relatively robust. By the 2050s, the Mitigation scenario typically avoids between 16 and 30% of the change in runoff under the Reference scenario, and by 2100 it avoids between 43 and 65%. Two different measures of exposure to water resources stress are calculated, based on resources per capita and the ratio of withdrawals to resources. Using the first measure, the Mitigation scenario avoids 8-17% of the impact in 2050 and 20-31% in 2100; with the second measure, the avoided impacts are 5-21% and 15-47% respectively. However, at the same time, the Mitigation scenario also reduces the positive impacts of climate change on water scarcity in other areas. The absolute numbers and locations of people affected by climate change and climate policy vary considerably between the four climate model patterns.

Novel on-line sensor technology for continuous monitoring of milk coagulation and whey separation in cheese making

The cheese industry has continually sought a robust method to monitor milk coagulation. Measurement of whey separation is also critical to control cheese moisture content, which affects quality. The objective of this study was to demonstrate that an online optical sensor detecting light backscatter in a vat could be applied to monitor both coagulation and syneresis during cheesemaking. A prototype sensor having a large field of view (LFV) relative to curd particle size was constructed. Temperature, cutting time, and calcium chloride addition were varied to evaluate the response of the sensor over a wide range of coagulation and syneresis rates. The LFV sensor response was related to casein micelle aggregation and curd firming during coagulation and to changes in curd moisture and whey fat contents during syneresis. The LFV sensor has potential as an online, continuous sensor technology for monitoring both coagulation and syneresis during cheesemaking.