Extension of spherical nonparametric estimators to nonisotropic kernels: An oceanographic application

In a recently published paper. spherical nonparametric estimators were applied to feature-track ensembles to determine a range of statistics for the atmospheric features considered. This approach obviates the types of bias normally introduced with traditional estimators. New spherical isotropic kernels with local support were introduced. Ln this paper the extension to spherical nonisotropic kernels with local support is introduced, together with a means of obtaining the shape and smoothing parameters in an objective way. The usefulness of spherical nonparametric estimators based on nonisotropic kernels is demonstrated with an application to an oceanographic feature-track ensemble.

Single versus multiple occupancy - Effects on toxicity parameters measured on Eisenia fetida in lead nitrate-treated soil

The mortality (7 and 14 d), weight change (7 and 14 d), and metal uptake of Eisenia fetida (Savigny, 1826) kept in Pb(NO3)(2)-treated Kettering loam soil in single- and multiple-occupancy (10 earthworms) test containers were determined. The number of earthworms to dry mass (g) ratio of soil was 1:50 in both sets of test containers. Lead concentrations were in the nominal range of 0 to 10,000 mg Pb/kg soil (mg/kg hereafter). Levels of mortality at a given concentration were statistically identical between the single- and multiple-occupancy tests, except at 1,800 mg/kg, at which significantly (p less than or equal to 0.05) more mortality occurred in the multiple-occupancy tests. Death of individual earthworms in the multiple-occupancy tests did not trigger death of the other earthworms in that soil. The LC50 values (concentration statistically likely to kill 50% of the population) were identical between the multiple- and single-occupancy soils: 2,662 mg/kg (2,598-2,984, 7 d) and 2,589 mg/kg (2,251-3,013, 14 d) for the multiple-occupancy soils and 2,827 mg/kg (2,443-3,168, both 7 and 14 d) for the single-occupancy soils (values in brackets represent the 95% confidence intervals). Data were insufficient to calculate the concentration statistically likely to reduce individual earthworm mass by 50% (EC50), but after 14 d, the decrease in earthworm weight in the 1,800 and 3,000 mg/kg tests was significantly greater in the multiple- than in the single-occupancy soils. At 1,000, 1,800, and 3,000 mg/kg tests, earthworm Pb tissue concentration was significantly (p less than or equal to 0.05) greater in earthworms from the multiple-occupancy soils. The presence of earthworms increased the NH3 content of the soil; earthworm mortality increased NH3 concentrations further but not to toxic levels.

Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

Effects of metals on life cycle parameters of the earthworm Eisenia fetida exposed to field-contaminated, metal-polluted soils

Two control and eight field-contaminated, metal-polluted soils were inoculated with Eisenia fetida (Savigny, 1826). Three, 7, 14, 21, 28 and 42 days after inoculation, earthworm survival, body weight, cocoon production and hatching rate were measured. Seventeen metals were analysed in E.fetida tissue, bulk soil and soil solution. Soil organic carbon content, texture, pH and cation exchange capacity were also measured. Cocoon production and hatching rate were more sensitive to adverse conditions than survival or weight change. Soil properties other than metal concentration impacted toxicity. The most toxic soils were organic-poor (1-10 g C kg(-1)), sandy soils (c. 74% sand), with intermediate metal concentrations (e.g. 7150-13, 100 mg Ph kg(-1), 2970-53,400 mg Zn kg(-1)). Significant relationships between soil properties and the life cycle parameters were determined. The best coefficients of correlation were generally found for texture, pH, Ag, Cd, Mg, Pb, Tl, and Zn both singularly and in multivariate regressions. Studies that use metal-amended artificial soils are not useful to predict toxicity of field multi-contaminated soils. (c) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An application of the GLUE methodology for estimating the parameters of the INCA-N model

The conceptual and parameter uncertainty of the semi-distributed INCA-N (Integrated Nutrients in Catchments-Nitrogen) model was studied using the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology combined with quantitative experimental knowledge, the concept known as 'soft data'. Cumulative inorganic N leaching, annual plant N uptake and annual mineralization proved to be useful soft data to constrain the parameter space. The INCA-N model was able to simulate the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the stream-water nitrate concentrations, although the lowest concentrations during the growing season were not reproduced. This suggested that there were some retention processes or losses either in peatland/wetland areas or in the river which were not included in the INCA-N model. The results of the study suggested that soft data was a way to reduce parameter equifinality, and that the calibration and testing of distributed hydrological and nutrient leaching models should be based both on runoff and/or nutrient concentration data and the qualitative knowledge of experimentalist. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC-AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water-balance-related parameters. Temperature-dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon 'dieback' results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long-term investments are required.

On the time for fold surfaces to order during the crystallization of polyethylene from the melt and its dependence on molecular parameters

New experiments underpin the interpretation of the basic division in crystallization behaviour of polyethylene in terms of whether or not there is time for the fold surface to order before the next molecular layer is added at the growth front. For typical growth rates, in Regime 11, polyethylene lamellae form with disordered {001} fold surfaces then transform, with lamellar thickening and twisting, towards the more-ordered condition found for slower crystallization in Regime 1, in which lamellae form with and retain {201} fold surfaces. Several linear and linear-low-density polyethylenes have been used to show that, for the same polymer crystallized alone or in a blend, the growth rate at which the change in initial lamellar condition occurs is reasonably constant thereby supporting the concept of a specific time for surfaces to attain the ordered {201}) state. This specific time, in the range from milliseconds to seconds, increases with molecular length, and in linear-low-density polymer, for higher branch contents. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.