The physical properties of the atmosphere in the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1). Part II: Aspects of variability and regional climate

The performance of the atmospheric component of the new Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM1) is assessed in terms of its ability to represent a selection of key aspects of variability in the Tropics and extratropics. These include midlatitude storm tracks and blocking activity, synoptic variability over Europe, and the North Atlantic Oscillation together with tropical convection, the Madden-Julian oscillation, and the Asian summer monsoon. Comparisons with the previous model, the Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), demonstrate that there has been a considerable increase in the transient eddy kinetic energy (EKE), bringing HadGEM1 into closer agreement with current reanalyses. This increase in EKE results from the increased horizontal resolution and, in combination with the improved physical parameterizations, leads to improvements in the representation of Northern Hemisphere storm tracks and blocking. The simulation of synoptic weather regimes over Europe is also greatly improved compared to HadCM3, again due to both increased resolution and other model developments. The variability of convection in the equatorial region is generally stronger and closer to observations than in HadCM3. There is, however, still limited convective variance coincident with several of the observed equatorial wave modes. Simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation is improved in HadGEM1: both the activity and interannual variability are increased and the eastward propagation, although slower than observed, is much better simulated. While some aspects of the climatology of the Asian summer monsoon are improved in HadGEM1, the upper-level winds are too weak and the simulation of precipitation deteriorates. The dominant modes of monsoon interannual variability are similar in the two models, although in HadCM3 this is linked to SST forcing, while in HadGEM1 internal variability dominates. Overall, analysis of the phenomena considered here indicates that HadGEM1 performs well and, in many important respects, improves upon HadCM3. Together with the improved representation of the mean climate, this improvement in the simulation of atmospheric variability suggests that HadGEM1 provides a sound basis for future studies of climate and climate change.

Aspects of isolation underpinning mitotic behaviour in lupin protoplasts

This study reports on the influence of critical isolation factors on the subsequent culture of protoplasts of Lupinus albus L. Protoplasts were isolated from in vitro seedling cotyledons of five early maturing accessions in which protoplast yields and division frequencies appeared to be correlated as a high protoplast yield corresponded with a high division frequency. The overall difference among the accessions for mitosis was non- significant, although the highest yield and division frequency were observed in accession LA132, with Alban giving a significantly lower level. Accession Lucrop produced the lowest number of protoplasts, all of which collapsed during culture. Of the enzyme types used for tissue maceration, Pectolyase Y23, was significantly inferior to Macerase in terms of giving way to mitosis. The extent of division in Macerase- isolated protoplast population was 266% higher than that in the Pectolyase Y23- isolated one. The physiological maturity level of the explant, expressed in terms of developmental age, was optimal when 14 - 18- day- old seedling cotyledons were used for protoplast production and culture, rather than more mature ones, despite higher protoplast yields in the latter. On K8p medium, the protoplast division frequency was 129% greater when 18- day- old seedling cotyledons were used, than that with any other treatment. This work on protoplast culture of the potentially important lupin species, which is a pulse rich in dietary protein, oil and fibre, allows a further understanding of the biology, with an aim to advance lupin biotechnology.

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Examination of Relationships between Clear-Sky Longwave Radiation and Aspects of the Atmospheric Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models, Reanalyses, and Observations

Relationships between clear-sky longwave radiation and aspects of the atmospheric hydrological cycle are quantified in models, reanalyses, and observations over the period 1980-2000. The robust sensitivity of clear-sky surface net longwave radiation (SNLc) to column-integrated water vapor (CWV) of 1-1.5 Wm(-2) mm(-1) combined with the positive relationship between CWV and surface temperature (T-s) explains substantial increases in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere (Q(LWc)) to the surface over the period. Clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLRc) is highly sensitive to changes in aerosol and greenhouse gas concentrations in addition to temperature and humidity. Over tropical ocean regions of mean descent, Q(LWc) increases with T-s at similar to 3.5-5.5 W m(-2) K-1 for reanalyses, estimates derived from satellite data, and models without volcanic forcing included. Increased Q(LWc) with warming across the tropical oceans helps to explain model ensemble mean increases in precipitation of 0.1-0.15 mm day(-1) K-1, which are primarily determined by ascent regions where precipitation increases at the rate expected from the Clausius-Clapeyron equation. The implications for future projections in the atmospheric hydrological cycle are discussed

Simulation of the Earth's radiation budget by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40)

The radiation budget simulated by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) is evaluated for the period 1979–2001 using independent satellite data and additional model data. This provides information on the quality of the radiation products and indirect evaluation of other aspects of the climate produced by ERA40. The climatology of clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) is well captured by ERA40. Underestimations of about 10 W m−2 in clear-sky OLR over tropical convective regions by ERA40 compared to satellite data are substantially reduced when the satellite sampling is taken into account. The climatology of column-integrated water vapor is well simulated by ERA40 compared to satellite data over the ocean, indicating that the simulation of downward clear-sky longwave fluxes at the surface is likely to be good. Clear-sky absorbed solar radiation (ASR) and clear-sky OLR are overestimated by ERA40 over north Africa and high-latitude land regions. The observed interannual changes in low-latitude means are not well reproduced. Using ERA40 to analyze trends and climate feedbacks globally is therefore not recommended. The all-sky radiation budget is poorly simulated by ERA40. OLR is overestimated by around 10 W m−2 over much of the globe. ASR is underestimated by around 30 W m−2 over tropical ocean regions. Away from marine stratocumulus regions, where cloud fraction is underestimated by ERA40, the poor radiation simulation by ERA40 appears to be related to inaccurate radiative properties of cloud rather than inaccurate cloud distributions.

Lesbian migrants in the gentrified valley: other 'geographies' of rural gentrification

This paper explores the migration and cultural consumption practices of lesbian households within processes of rural change. Taking forward Phillips' (2004. Progress in Human Geography 28, 5-30) discussion of neglected geographies of rural gentrification, and building upon Halfacree's (2001. International Journal of Population Geography 7, 395-411) critique of dominant conceptualisations of rural in-migrants, the paper presents empirical findings from a qualitative study of lesbian households in Hebden Bridge, West Yorkshire. This follows up an earlier study of rural gentrification (Smith and Phillips, 2001. Journal of Rural Studies 19, 457-469). Lesbian households are shown to be a significant group that socially and culturally (re)produce distinct constructions of rurality, and act as gentrifiers via their migration, residential, and consumption practices. Many parallels to the migration processes of non-lesbian gentrifiers in Hebden Bridge are revealed, with the alternative cultural structures of Hebden Bridge being a key factor. We therefore argue that lesbian households should not be 'othered' within discourses of rural gentrification. The discussion emphasises the value of focussing upon neglected socio-cultural groups in robust ways, in order to shed light on the wider lifestyles and experiences of diverse rural populations, and to deepen understandings of other geographies of rural gentrification. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thresholds for irreversible decline of the Greenland ice sheet

The Greenland ice sheet will decline in volume in a warmer climate. If a sufficiently warm climate is maintained for a few thousand years, the ice sheet will be completely melted. This raises the question of whether the decline would be reversible: would the ice sheet regrow if the climate cooled down? To address this question, we conduct a number of experiments using a climate model and a high-resolution ice-sheet model. The experiments are initialised with ice sheet states obtained from various points during its decline as simulated in a high-CO2 scenario, and they are then forced with a climate simulated for pre-industrial greenhouse gas concentrations, to determine the possible trajectories of subsequent ice sheet evolution. These trajectories are not the reverse of the trajectory during decline. They converge on three different steady states. The original ice-sheet volume can be regained only if the volume has not fallen below a threshold of irreversibility, which lies between 80 and 90% of the original value. Depending on the degree of warming and the sensitivity of the climate and the ice-sheet, this point of no return could be reached within a few hundred years, sooner than CO2 and global climate could revert to a pre-industrial state, and in that case global sea level rise of at least 1.3 m would be irreversible. An even larger irreversible change to sea level rise of 5 m may occur if ice sheet volume drops below half of its current size. The set of steady states depends on the CO2 concentration. Since we expect the results to be quantitatively affected by resolution and other aspects of model formulation, we would encourage similar investigations with other models.

Understanding and production of prosody in children with Williams syndrome: A developmental trajectory approach

This study investigated the development of three aspects of linguistic prosody in a group of children with Williams syndrome compared to typically developing children. The prosodic abilities investigated were: (1) the ability to understand and use prosody to make specific words or syllables stand out in an utterance (focus); (2) the ability to understand and use prosody to disambiguate complex noun phrases (chunking); (3) the ability to understand and use prosody to regulate conversational behaviour (turn-end). The data were analysed using a cross-sectional developmental trajectory approach. The results showed that, relative to chronological age, there was a delayed onset in the development of the ability of children with WS to use prosody to signal the most important word in an utterance (the focus function). Delayed rate of development was found for all the other aspects of expressive and receptive prosody under investigation. However, when non-verbal mental age was taken into consideration, there were no differences between the children with WS and the controls neither with the onset nor with the rate of development for any of the prosodic skills under investigation apart from the ability to use prosody in order to regulate conversational behaviour. We conclude that prosody is not a ‘preserved’ cognitive skill in WS. The genetic factors, development in other cognitive domains and environmental influences affect developmental pathways and as a result, development proceeds along an atypical trajectory.

Electrification of volcanic plumes

Volcanic lightning, perhaps the most spectacular consequence of the electrification of volcanic plumes, has been implicated in the origin of life on Earth, and may also exist in other planetary atmospheres. Recent years have seen volcanic lightning detection used as part of a portfolio of developing techniques to monitor volcanic eruptions. Remote sensing measurement techniques have been used to monitor volcanic lightning, but surface observations of the atmospheric electric Potential Gradient (PG) and the charge carried on volcanic ash also show that many volcanic plumes, whilst not sufficiently electrified to produce lightning, have detectable electrification exceeding that of their surrounding environment. Electrification has only been observed associated with ash-rich explosive plumes, but there is little evidence that the composition of the ash is critical to its occurrence. Different conceptual theories for charge generation and separation in volcanic plumes have been developed to explain the disparate observations obtained, but the ash fragmentation mechanism appears to be a key parameter. It is unclear which mechanisms or combinations of electrification mechanisms dominate in different circumstances. Electrostatic forces play an important role in modulating the dry fallout of ash from a volcanic plume. Beyond the local electrification of plumes, the higher stratospheric particle concentrations following a large explosive eruption may affect the global atmospheric electrical circuit. It is possible that this might present another, if minor, way by which large volcanic eruptions affect global climate. The direct hazard of volcanic lightning to communities is generally low compared to other aspects of volcanic activity.