The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The seasonal forecast of electricity demand: A hierarchical Bayesian model with climatological weather generator

In this paper we focus on the one year ahead prediction of the electricity peak-demand daily trajectory during the winter season in Central England and Wales. We define a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the winter trajectories and present results based on the past observed weather. Thanks to the flexibility of the Bayesian approach, we are able to produce the marginal posterior distributions of all the predictands of interest. This is a fundamental progress with respect to the classical methods. The results are encouraging in both skill and representation of uncertainty. Further extensions are straightforward at least in principle. The main two of those consist in conditioning the weather generator model with respect to additional information like the knowledge of the first part of the winter and/or the seasonal weather forecast. Copyright (C) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Quasilimiting behavior for one-dimensional diffusions with killing

This paper extends and clarifies results of Steinsaltz and Evans [Trans. Amer. Math. Soc. 359 (2007) 1285–1234], which found conditions for convergence of a killed one-dimensional diffusion conditioned on survival, to a quasistationary distribution whose density is given by the principal eigenfunction of the generator. Under the assumption that the limit of the killing at infinity differs from the principal eigenvalue we prove that convergence to quasistationarity occurs if and only if the principal eigenfunction is integrable. When the killing at ∞ is larger than the principal eigenvalue, then the eigenfunction is always integrable. When the killing at ∞ is smaller, the eigenfunction is integrable only when the unkilled process is recurrent; otherwise, the process conditioned on survival converges to 0 density on any bounded interval.

Water management in Minoan Crete, Greece: the two cisterns of one Middle Bronze Age settlement

The two earliest structures of Minoan Crete that may be considered as large cisterns were both built in the first half of the second millennium BC (the time of the first Minoan palaces) at Myrtos-Pyrgos (lerapetra). A considerable feat of engineering and social management, they remain a most unusual attribute of a Minoan settlement, all the more so since the Myrtos river is/was available to supply water at the foot of the hill of Pyrgos. This paper presents these cisterns, briefly, in terms of geology and technology, the history of their use and re-use, and their relevance to understanding the culture and society (at local and regional levels) of Crete in the time of the Old Palaces, as well as their possible contribution to the political and military history of the period. I then review possible precursors of, and architectural parallels to, the Pyrgos cisterns at Knossos, Malia and Phaistos (none of which has been proved to be a cistern), and the later history of cisterns in Bronze Age Crete. Since only three others are known (at Archanes, Zakro and Tylissos, of Late Bronze Age date), the two cisterns of Myrtos-Pyrgos are an important addition to our still rudimentary knowledge of how the Bronze Age Cretans managed their water supplies.

Intercomparison of aircraft instruments on board the C-130 and Falcon-20 over southern Germany during EXPORT2000

In the summer 2000 EXPORT aircraft campaign (European eXport of Precursors and Ozone by long-Range Transport), two comprehensively instrumented research aircraft measuring a variety of chemical species flew wing tip to wing tip for a period of one and a quarter hours. During this interval a comparison was undertaken of the measurements of nitrogen oxide (NO), odd nitrogen species (NOy), carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3). The comparison was performed at two different flight levels, which provided a 10-fold variation in the concentrations of both NO (10 to 1000 parts per trillion by volume (pptv)) and NOy (200 to over 2500 pptv). Large peaks of NO and NOy observed from the Falcon 20, which were at first thought to be from the exhaust of the C-130, were also detected on the 4 channel NOxy instrument aboard the C-130. These peaks were a good indication that both aircraft were in the same air mass and that the Falcon 20 was not in the exhaust plume of the C-130. Correlations and statistical analysis are presented between the instruments used on the two separate aircraft platforms. These were found to be in good agreement giving a high degree of correlation for the ambient air studied. Any deviations from the correlations are accounted for in the estimated inaccuracies of the instruments. These results help to establish that the instruments aboard the separate aircraft are reliably able to measure the corresponding chemical species in the range of conditions sampled and that data collected by both aircraft can be co-ordinated for purposes of interpretation.

Spectral functions of half-filled one-dimensional Hubbard rings with varying boundary conditions

We study the effect of varying the boundary condition on: the spectral function of a finite one-dimensional Hubbard chain, which we compute using direct (Lanczos) diagonalization of the Hamiltonian. By direct comparison with the two-body response functions and with the exact solution of the Bethe ansatz equations, we can identify both spinon and holon features in the spectra. At half-filling the spectra have the well-known structure of a low-energy holon band and its shadow-which spans the whole Brillouin zone-and a spinon band present for momenta less than the Fermi momentum. Features related to the twisted boundary condition are cusps in the spinon band. We show that the spectral building principle, adapted to account for both the finite system size and the twisted boundary condition, describes the spectra well in terms of single spinon and holon excitations. We argue that these finite-size effects are a signature of spin-charge separation and that their study should help establish the existence and nature of spin-charge separation in finite-size systems.

Analytical potentials for triatomic molecules from spectroscopic data VI. On choosing internal coordinates to describe triatomic potential energy surfaces with more than one minimum

Orthogonal internal coordinates are defined which have useful properties for constructing the potential energy functions of triatomic molecules with two or three minima on the surface. The coordinates are used to obtain ground state potentials of ClOO and HOF, both of which have three minima.