Comparison of polar ozone loss rates simulated by one-dimensional and three-dimensional models with Match observations in recent Antarctic and Arctic winters

Simulations of ozone loss rates using a three-dimensional chemical transport model and a box model during recent Antarctic and Arctic winters are compared with experimental loss rates. The study focused on the Antarctic winter 2003, during which the first Antarctic Match campaign was organized, and on Arctic winters 1999/2000, 2002/2003. The maximum ozone loss rates retrieved by the Match technique for the winters and levels studied reached 6 ppbv/sunlit hour and both types of simulations could generally reproduce the observations at 2-sigma error bar level. In some cases, for example, for the Arctic winter 2002/2003 at 475 K level, an excellent agreement within 1-sigma standard deviation level was obtained. An overestimation was also found with the box model simulation at some isentropic levels for the Antarctic winter and the Arctic winter 1999/2000, indicating an overestimation of chlorine activation in the model. Loss rates in the Antarctic show signs of saturation in September, which have to be considered in the comparison. Sensitivity tests were performed with the box model in order to assess the impact of kinetic parameters of the ClO-Cl2O2 catalytic cycle and total bromine content on the ozone loss rate. These tests resulted in a maximum change in ozone loss rates of 1.2 ppbv/sunlit hour, generally in high solar zenith angle conditions. In some cases, a better agreement was achieved with fastest photolysis of Cl2O2 and additional source of total inorganic bromine but at the expense of overestimation of smaller ozone loss rates derived later in the winter.

Endothelin-1 and fibroblast growth factors stimulate the mitogen-activated protein kinase signaling cascade in cardiac myocytes. The potential role of the cascade in the integration of two signaling pathways leading to myocyte hypertrophy.

Maximally effective concentrations of endothelin-1 (ET-1), acidic FGF (aFGF), or 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) activated mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) by 3-4-fold in crude extracts of myocytes cultured from neonatal rat heart ventricles. Maximal activation was achieved after 5 min. Thereafter, MAPK activity stimulated by ET-1 or aFGF declined to control values within 1-2 h, whereas activation by TPA was more sustained. Two peaks of MAPK activity (a 42- and a 44-kDa MAPK) were resolved in cells exposed to ET-1 or aFGF by fast protein liquid chromatography on a Mono Q column. One major and one minor peak of MAPK kinase (MAPKK) was stimulated by ET-1 or aFGF. Cardiac myocytes expressed protein kinase C (PKC)-alpha, -delta, -epsilon and -zeta as shown immunoblotting. Exposure to 1 microM TPA for 24 h down-regulated PKC-alpha, -delta, and -epsilon, but not PKC-zeta. This maneuver wholly abolished the activation of MAPK on re-exposure to TPA but did not affect the response to aFGF. The effect of ET-1 was partially down-regulated. ET-1 stimulated phospho[3H]inositide hydrolysis 18-fold, whereas aFGF stimulated by only 30%. Agonists which initially utilize dissimilar signaling pathways may therefore converge at the level of MAPKK/MAPK and this may be relevant to the hypertrophic response of the heart.

Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models

Some numerical experiments on the effect of the variation of static stability in two-layer quasi-geostrophic models

A method to solve a quasi-geostrophic two-layer model including the variation of static stability is presented. The divergent part of the wind is incorporated by means of an iterative procedure. The procedure is rather fast and the time of computation is only 60–70% longer than for the usual two-layer model. The method of solution is justified by the conservation of the difference between the gross static stability and the kinetic energy. To eliminate the side-boundary conditions the experiments have been performed on a zonal channel model. The investigation falls mainly into three parts: The first part (section 5) contains a discussion of the significance of some physically inconsistent approximations. It is shown that physical inconsistencies are rather serious and for these inconsistent models which were studied the total kinetic energy increased faster than the gross static stability. In the next part (section 6) we are studying the effect of a Jacobian difference operator which conserves the total kinetic energy. The use of this operator in two-layer models will give a slight improvement but probably does not have any practical use in short periodic forecasts. It is also shown that the energy-conservative operator will change the wave-speed in an erroneous way if the wave-number or the grid-length is large in the meridional direction. In the final part (section 7) we investigate the behaviour of baroclinic waves for some different initial states and for two energy-consistent models, one with constant and one with variable static stability. According to the linear theory the waves adjust rather rapidly in such a way that the temperature wave will lag behind the pressure wave independent of the initial configuration. Thus, both models give rise to a baroclinic development even if the initial state is quasi-barotropic. The effect of the variation of static stability is very small, qualitative differences in the development are only observed during the first 12 hours. For an amplifying wave we will get a stabilization over the troughs and an instabilization over the ridges.

Survival, reproduction and population growth of the bee pollinator, Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), along gradients of heavy metal pollution

1. Bees are one of the most important groups of pollinators in the temperate zone. Although heavy metal pollution is recognised to be a problem affecting large parts of the European Union, we currently lack insights into the effects of heavy metals on wild bee survival and reproduction. 2. We investigated the impact of heavy metal pollution on the wild bee Osmia rufa (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae) by comparing their survival, reproduction and population dynamics along two independent gradients of heavy metal pollution, one in Poland and the other in the United Kingdom. We used trap nests to evaluate the response of fitness and survival parameters of O. rufa. To quantify the levels of pollution, we directly measured the heavy metal concentration in provisions collected by O. rufa. 3. We found that with increasing heavy metal concentration, there was a steady decrease in number of brood cells constructed by females and an increase in the proportion of dead offspring. In the most polluted site, there were typically 3–4 cells per female with 50–60% dead offspring, whereas in unpolluted sites there were 8 to 10 cells per female and only 10–30% dead offspring. Moreover, the bee population growth rate (R0) decreased along the heavy metal pollution gradients. In unpolluted sites, R0 was above 1, whereas in contaminated sites, the values tended to be below 1. 4. Our findings reveal a negative relationship between heavy metal pollution and several fitness parameters of the wild bee O. rufa, and highlight a mechanism whereby the detrimental effects of heavy metal pollution may severely impact wild bee communities.

Real-time forecasting of inflation and output growth with autoregressive models in the presence of data revisions

We examine how the accuracy of real-time forecasts from models that include autoregressive terms can be improved by estimating the models on ‘lightly revised’ data instead of using data from the latest-available vintage. The benefits of estimating autoregressive models on lightly revised data are related to the nature of the data revision process and the underlying process for the true values. Empirically, we find improvements in root mean square forecasting error of 2–4% when forecasting output growth and inflation with univariate models, and of 8% with multivariate models. We show that multiple-vintage models, which explicitly model data revisions, require large estimation samples to deliver competitive forecasts. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Threshold autoregressive and Markov switching models: an application to commercial real estate

Although financial theory rests heavily upon the assumption that asset returns are normally distributed, value indices of commercial real estate display significant departures from normality. In this paper, we apply and compare the properties of two recently proposed regime switching models for value indices of commercial real estate in the US and the UK, both of which relax the assumption that observations are drawn from a single distribution with constant mean and variance. Statistical tests of the models' specification indicate that the Markov switching model is better able to capture the non-stationary features of the data than the threshold autoregressive model, although both represent superior descriptions of the data than the models that allow for only one state. Our results have several implications for theoretical models and empirical research in finance.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Evaluation of two hybrid metric-conceptual models, for simulating phosphorus transfer from agricultural land in the river enborne, a lowland UK catchment

Across Europe, elevated phosphorus (P) concentrations in lowland rivers have made them particularly susceptible to eutrophication. This is compounded in southern and central UK by increasing pressures on water resources, which may be further enhanced by the potential effects of climate change. The EU Water Framework Directive requires an integrated approach to water resources management at the catchment scale and highlights the need for modelling tools that can distinguish relative contributions from multiple nutrient sources and are consistent with the information content of the available data. Two such models are introduced and evaluated within a stochastic framework using daily flow and total phosphorus concentrations recorded in a clay catchment typical of many areas of the lowland UK. Both models disaggregate empirical annual load estimates, derived from land use data, as a function of surface/near surface runoff, generated using a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Estimates of the daily load from agricultural land, together with those from baseflow and point sources, feed into an in-stream routing algorithm. The first model assumes constant concentrations in runoff via surface/near surface pathways and incorporates an additional P store in the river-bed sediments, depleted above a critical discharge, to explicitly simulate resuspension. The second model, which is simpler, simulates P concentrations as a function of surface/near surface runoff, thus emphasising the influence of non-point source loads during flow peaks and mixing of baseflow and point sources during low flows. The temporal consistency of parameter estimates and thus the suitability of each approach is assessed dynamically following a new approach based on Monte-Carlo analysis. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil moisture mediates association between the winter North Atlantic Oscillation and summer growth in the Park Grass Experiment

Several aspects of terrestrial ecosystems are known to be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) through effects of the NAO on winter climate, but recently the winter NAO has also been shown to be correlated with the following summer climate, including drought. Since drought is a major factor determining grassland primary productivity, the hypothesis was tested that the winter NAO is associated with summer herbage growth through soil moisture availability, using data from the Park Grass Experiment at Rothamsted, UK between 1960 and 1999. The herbage growth rate, mean daily rainfall, mean daily potential evapotranspiration (PE) and the mean and maximum potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) were calculated between the two annual cuts in early summer and autumn for the unlimed, unfertilized plots. Mean and maximum PSMD were more highly correlated than rainfall or PE with herbage growth rate. Regression analysis showed that the natural logarithm of the herbage growth rate approximately halved for a 250 mm increase in maximum PSMD over the range 50-485 mm. The maximum PSMD was moderately correlated with the preceding winter NAO, with a positive winter NAO index associated with greater maximum PSMD. A positive winter NAO index was also associated with low herbage growth rate, accounting for 22% of the interannual variation in the growth rate. It was concluded that the association between the winter NAO and summer herbage growth rate is mediated by the PSMD in summer.

Reduced height (Rht) and photoperiod insensitivity (Ppd) allele associations with establishment and early growth of wheat in contrasting production systems

Near isogenic lines (NILs) varying for genes for reduced height (Rht) and photoperiod insensitivity (Ppd-D1a) in a cv. Mercia background (rht (tall), Rht-B1b, Rht-D1b, Rht-B1c, Rht8c + Ppd-D1a, Rht-D1c, Rht12) were compared at one field site but within contrasting ('organic' vs. 'conventional') rotational and agronomic contexts, in each of 3 years. In the final year, further NILs (rht (tall), Rht-B1b, Rht-D1b, Rht-B1c, Rht-B1b + Rht-D1b, Rht-D1b + Rht-B1c) in both Maris Huntsman and Maris Widgeon backgrounds were added together with 64 lines of a doubled haploid (DH) population [Savannah (Rht-D1b) x Renesansa (Rht-8c + Ppd-D1a)]. Assessments included laboratory tests of germination and coleoptile length, and various field measurements of crop growth between emergence and pre jointing [plant population, tillering, leaf length, ground cover (GC), interception of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), crop dry matter (DM) and nitrogen accumulation (N), far red: red reflectance ratio (FR:R), crop height, and weed dry matter]. All of the dwarfing alleles except Rht12 in the Mercia background and Rht8c in the DHs were associated with reduced coleoptile length. Most of the dwarfing alleles (depending on background) reduced seed viability. Severe dwarfing alleles (Rht-B1c, Rht-D1c and Rht12) were routinely associated with fewer plant numbers and reduced early crop growth (GC, PAR, DM, N, FR:R), and in 1 year, increased weed DM. In the Mercia background and the DHs the semi-dwarfing allele Rht-D1b was also sometimes associated with reductions in early crop growth; no such negative effects were associated with the marker for Rht8c. When significant interactions between cropping system and genotype did occur it was because differences between lines were more exaggerated in the organic system than in the conventional system. Ppd-D1a was associated positively with plant numbers surviving the winter and early crop growth (GC, FR:R, DM, N, PAR, height), and was the most significant locus in a QTL analysis. We conclude that, within these environmental and system contexts, genes moderating development are likely to be more important in influencing early resource capture than using Rht8c as an alternative semi-dwarfing gene to Rht-D1b.

Rooting cuttings of Syringa vulgaris cv. Charles Joly and Corylus avellana cv. Aurea: the influence of stock plant pruning and shoot growth

The relationship between shoot growth and rooting was examined in two, 'difficult-to root' amenity trees, Syringa vulgaris L. cv. Charles Joly and Corylus avellana L. cv. Aurea. A range of treatments reflecting severity of pruning was imposed on field-grown stock prior to bud break. To minimise variation due to the numbers of buds that developed under different treatments, bud number was restricted to 30 per plant. Leafy cuttings were harvested at different stages of the active growth phase of each species. With Syringa, rooting decreased with later harvests, but loss of rooting potential was delayed in cuttings collected from the most severe pruning treatment. Rooting potential was associated with the extent of post-excision shoot growth on the cutting but regression analyses indicated that this relationship could not entirely explain the loss of rooting with time, nor the effects due to pruning. Similarly, in Corylus rooting was promoted by severe pruning, but the relationship between apical growth on the cutting and rooting was weaker than in Syringa, and only at the last harvest did growth play a critical role in determining rooting. Another unusual factor of the last harvest of Corylus was a bimodal distribution of roots per cutting, with very few rooted cuttings having less than five roots. This implies that, for this harvest at least, the potential of an individual cutting to root is probably not limited by the number of potential rooting sites.

The influence of larval density, food availability and habitat longevity on the life history and population growth rate of the midge Chironomus riparius

Despite long-standing interest in the forms and mechanisms of density dependence, these are still imperfectly understood. However, in a constant environment an increase in density must reduce per capita resource availability, which in turn leads to reduced survival, fecundity and somatic growth rate. Here we report two population experiments examining the density dependent responses under controlled conditions of an important indicator species, Chironomus riparius. The first experiment was run for 35 weeks and was started at low density with replicate populations being fed three different rations. Increased ration reduced generation time and increased population growth rate (pgr) but had no effect on survival, fecundity and female body weight in the first generation. In the second generation there was a six-fold increase in generation time, presumably due to the greatly reduced per capita resource availability as the estimated initial densities of the second generation were 300 times greater than the first. Juvenile survival to emergence, fecundity, adult body weight and pgr declined by 90%, 75%, 35% and 99%, respectively. These large between-generation effects may have obscured the effects of the threefold variation in ration, as only survival to emergence significantly increased with ration in the second generation. These results suggest that some chironomid larvae survive a reduction in resource availability by growing more slowly. In the ephemeral habitats sometimes occupied by C. riparius, the effects of population density may depend crucially on the longevity of the environment. A second experiment was therefore performed to measure pgr from six different starting densities over an eight-week period. The relationship between pgr and density was concave, viewed from above. At densities above 16 larvae per cm(2), less than 1% of the population emerged and no offspring were produced. Under the conditions of experiment 2 - an 8-week habitat lifespan carrying capacity was estimated as 8 larvae per cm(2).