An application of the GLUE methodology for estimating the parameters of the INCA-N model

The conceptual and parameter uncertainty of the semi-distributed INCA-N (Integrated Nutrients in Catchments-Nitrogen) model was studied using the GLUE (Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation) methodology combined with quantitative experimental knowledge, the concept known as 'soft data'. Cumulative inorganic N leaching, annual plant N uptake and annual mineralization proved to be useful soft data to constrain the parameter space. The INCA-N model was able to simulate the seasonal and inter-annual variations in the stream-water nitrate concentrations, although the lowest concentrations during the growing season were not reproduced. This suggested that there were some retention processes or losses either in peatland/wetland areas or in the river which were not included in the INCA-N model. The results of the study suggested that soft data was a way to reduce parameter equifinality, and that the calibration and testing of distributed hydrological and nutrient leaching models should be based both on runoff and/or nutrient concentration data and the qualitative knowledge of experimentalist. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Leaching of nitrate from cropped rainfed terraces in the mid-hills of Nepal

Intensification of crop production in the mid-hills of Nepal has led to concerns that nitrogen loss by leaching may increase. This study estimated the amount of N leached during two years from rainfed terraces (bari-land) at three locations in Nepal. Maize or upland rice grown in the monsoon season was given either no nutrient inputs or inputs via either nitrogen fertilizer or farmyard manure. Nitrate concentration in soil solution was measured regularly with porous ceramic cup samplers and drainage estimated from a simple soil water balance. Estimated losses of nitrogen by leaching ranged from 0 to 63.5 kg N ha(-1) depending on location and the form of nitrogen applied. Losses from plots receiving no nutrient inputs were generally small (range: 0-35 kg N ha(-1)) and losses from plots where nitrogen was applied as manure (range: 2-41 kg N ha(-1)) were typically half those from plots with nitrogen applied as fertilizer. Losses during the post-monsoon crops of finger millet were small (typically <5% of total loss) although losses from the one site with blackgram were larger (about 13%). The highest concentrations of nitrate in solution were measured early in the season as the monsoon rains began and immediately following fertilizer applications. Leaching losses are likely to be minimised if manure is applied as a basal nutrient dressing followed by fertilizer nitrogen later in the season.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of potassium leaching on a hillslope grassland soil

There have been only a few studies of potassium (K) losses from grassland systems, and little is known about their dynamics, especially in relation to nitrogen (N) management. A study was performed during the autumn and winter of 1999 and 2000 to understand the effects of N and drainage on the dynamics of K leaching on a hillslope grassland soil in southwestern England. Two N application rates were studied (0 and 280 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1)), both with and without the drainage. Treatments receiving N also received farmyard manure (FM). Higher total K losses and K concentrations in the leachates were found in the N + FM treatments (150 and 185% higher than in 0 N treatments), which were related to K additions in the FM. Drainage reduced K losses by 35% because of an increase in dry matter production and a reduction in overland and preferential flow. The pattern of change in K concentration in the leachates was associated with preferential flow at the beginning of the drainage season and with matrix flow later in winter, and was best described by a double exponential curve. Rainfall intensity and the autumn application of FM were the main determinants of K losses by leaching. The study provided new insights into the relationships between soil hydrology, rainfall, and K leaching and its implications for grassland systems.

Factors affecting potassium leaching in different soils

A set of lysimeter based experiments was carried out during 2000/01 to evaluate the impact of soil type and grassland management on potassium (K) leaching. The effects of (1) four soil textures (sand, loam, loam over chalk and clay), (2) grazing and cutting (with farmyard manure application), and (3) K applied as inorganic fertilizer, dairy slurry or a mixture of both sources were tested. Total K losses in the clay soil were more than twice those in the sand soil (13 and 6 kg K ha(-1), respectively) because of the development of preferential flow in the clay soil. They were also greater in the cut treatment than in the grazed treatment (82 and 51 kg K ha(-1), respectively; P less than or equal to0.01), associated with a 63% increase of K concentration in the leachates from the former (6.7 +/- 0.28 and 4.1 +/- 0.22 mg K L-1 for cut and grazed, respectively; P less than or equal to0.01) because of the K input from the farmyard manure. The source of fertilizer did not affect total K losses or the average K concentration in the leachates (P >0.05), but it changed the pattern of these over time.

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales: the spatial variation of topsoil nutrient status and pH between 1971 and 2001

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme (RSSS) has monitored the soil of agricultural land in England and Wales since 1969. Here we describe the first spatial analysis of the data from these surveys using geostatistics. Four years of data (1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001) were chosen to examine the nutrient (available K, Mg and P) and pH status of the soil. At each farm, four fields were sampled; however, for the earlier years, coordinates were available for the farm only and not for each field. The averaged data for each farm were used for spatial analysis and the variograms showed spatial structure even with the smaller sample size. These variograms provide a reasonable summary of the larger scale of variation identified from the data of the more intensively sampled National Soil Inventory. Maps of kriged predictions of K generally show larger values in the central and southeastern areas (above 200 mg L-1) and an increase in values in the west over time, whereas Mg is fairly stable over time. The kriged predictions of P show a decline over time, particularly in the east, and those of pH show an increase in the east over time. Disjunctive kriging was used to examine temporal changes in available P using probabilities less than given thresholds of this element. The RSSS was not designed for spatial analysis, but the results show that the data from these surveys are suitable for this purpose. The results of the spatial analysis, together with those of the statistical analyses, provide a comprehensive view of the RSSS database as a basis for monitoring the soil. These data should be taken into account when future national soil monitoring schemes are designed.

A comparison of diatom phosphorus transfer functions and export coefficient models as tools for reconstructing lake nutrient histories

1. We compared the baseline phosphorus (P) concentrations inferred by diatom-P transfer functions and export coefficient models at 62 lakes in Great Britain to assess whether the techniques produce similar estimates of historical nutrient status. 2. There was a strong linear relationship between the two sets of values over the whole total P (TP) gradient (2-200 mu g TP L-1). However, a systematic bias was observed with the diatom model producing the higher values in 46 lakes (of which values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in 21). The export coefficient model gave the higher values in 10 lakes (of which the values differed by more than 10 mu g TP L-1 in only 4). 3. The difference between baseline and present-day TP concentrations was calculated to compare the extent of eutrophication inferred by the two sets of model output. There was generally poor agreement between the amounts of change estimated by the two approaches. The discrepancy in both the baseline values and the degree of change inferred by the models was greatest in the shallow and more productive sites. 4. Both approaches were applied to two lakes in the English Lake District where long-term P data exist, to assess how well the models track measured P concentrations since approximately 1850. There was good agreement between the pre-enrichment TP concentrations generated by the models. The diatom model paralleled the steeper rise in maximum soluble reactive P (SRP) more closely than the gradual increase in annual mean TP in both lakes. The export coefficient model produced a closer fit to observed annual mean TP concentrations for both sites, tracking the changes in total external nutrient loading. 5. A combined approach is recommended, with the diatom model employed to reflect the nature and timing of the in-lake response to changes in nutrient loading, and the export coefficient model used to establish the origins and extent of changes in the external load and to assess potential reduction in loading under different management scenarios. 6. However, caution must be exercised when applying these models to shallow lakes where the export coefficient model TP estimate will not include internal P loading from lake sediments and where the diatom TP inferences may over-estimate TP concentrations because of the high abundance of benthic taxa, many of which are poor indicators of trophic state.

Bryozoan populations reflect nutrient enrichment and productivity gradients in rivers

1. The hypothesis that nutrient enrichment will affect bryozoan abundance was tested using two complementary investigations; a field-based method determining bryozoan abundance in 20 rivers of different nutrient concentrations by deploying statoblast (dormant propagule) traps and an experimental laboratory microcosm study measuring bryozoan growth and mortality. These two methods confirmed independently that increased nutrient concentrations in water promote increases in the biomass of freshwater bryozoans. 2. Statoblasts of the genus Plumatella were recorded in all rivers, regardless of nutrient concentrations, demonstrating that freshwater bryozoans are widespread. Concentrations of Plumatella statoblasts were high in rivers with high nutrient concentrations relative to those with low to moderate nutrient concentrations. Regression analyses indicated that phosphorus concentrations, in particular, significantly influenced statoblast concentrations. 3. Concentrations of Lophopus crystallinus statoblasts were also higher in sites characterised by high nutrient concentrations. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the presence of L. crystallinus statoblasts was significantly associated with decreasing altitude and increasing phosphorus concentrations. This apparently rare species was found in nine rivers (out of 20), seven of which were new sites for L. crystallinus. 4. Growth rates of Fredericella sultana in laboratory microcosms increased with increasing nutrient concentration and high mortality rates were associated with low nutrient concentrations. 5. Our results indicate that bryozoans respond to increasing nutrient concentrations by increased growth, resulting in higher biomasses in enriched waters. We also found that an important component of bryozoan diets can derive from food items lacking chlorophyll a. Finally, bryozoans may be used as independent proxies for inferring trophic conditions, a feature that may be especially valuable in reconstructing historical environments by assessing the abundance of statoblasts in sediment cores.

Towards a nutrient export risk matrix approach to managing agricultural pollution at source

A generic Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM) approach is presented. This provides advice to farmers and policy makers on good practice for reducing nutrient loss and is intended to persuade them to implement such measures. Combined with a range of nutrient transport modelling tools and field experiments, NERMs can play an important role in reducing nutrient export from agricultural land. The Phosphorus Export Risk Matrix (PERM) is presented as an example NERM. The PERM integrates hydrological understanding of runoff with a number of agronomic and policy factors into a clear problem-solving framework. This allows farmers and policy makers to visualise strategies for reducing phosphorus loss through proactive land management. The risk Of Pollution is assessed by a series of informed questions relating to farming intensity and practice. This information is combined with the concept of runoff management to point towards simple, practical remedial strategies which do not compromise farmers' ability to obtain sound economic returns from their crop and livestock.

Temporal patterns of nutrient availability around nests of leaf-cutting ants (Atta colombica) in secondary moist tropical forest

Leaf-cutting ants consume up to 10% of canopy leaves in the foraging area of their colony and therefore represent a key perturbation in the nutrient cycle of tropical forests. We used a chronosequence of nest sites on Barro, Colorado Island, Panama, to assess the influence of leaf-cutting ants (Atta colombica) on nutrient availability in a neotropical rainforest. Twelve nest sites were sampled, including active nests, recently abandoned nests (<1 year) and long-abandoned nests (>1 year). Waste material discarded by the ants down-slope from the nests contained large concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus in both total and soluble forms, but decomposed within one year after the nests were abandoned. Despite this, soil under the waste material contained high concentrations of nitrate and ammonium that persisted after the disappearance of the waste, although soluble phosphate returned to background concentrations within one year of nest abandonment. Fine roots were more abundant in soil under waste than control soils up to one year after nest abandonment, but were not significantly different for older sites. In contrast to the waste dumps, soil above the underground nest chambers consistently contained lower nutrient concentrations than control soils, although this was not statistically significant. We conclude that the 'islands of fertility' created by leaf-cutting ants provide a nutritional benefit to nearby plants for less than one year after nest abandonment in the moist tropical environment of Barro Colorado Island. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Catchment-scale modelling of flow and nutrient transport in the Chalk unsaturated zone

The unsaturated zone exerts a major control on the delivery of nutrients to Chalk streams, yet flow and transport processes in this complex, dual-porosity medium have remained controversial. A major challenge arises in characterising these processes, both at the detailed mechanistic level and at an appropriate level for inclusion within catchment-scale models for nutrient management. The lowland catchment research (LOCAR) programme in the UK has provided a unique set of comprehensively instrumented groundwater-dominated catchments. Of these, the Pang and Lambourn, tributaries of the Thames near Reading, have been a particular focus for research into subsurface processes and surface water-groundwater interactions. Data from LOCAR and other sources, along with a new dual permeability numerical model of the Chalk, have been used to explore the relative roles of matrix and fracture flow within the unsaturated zone and resolve conflicting hypotheses of response. From the improved understanding gained through these explorations, a parsimonious conceptualisation of the general response of flow and transport within the Chalk unsaturated zone was formulated. This paper summarises the modelling and data findings of these explorations, and describes the integration of the new simplified unsaturated zone representation with a catchment-scale model of nutrients (INCA), resulting in a new model for catchment-scale flow and transport within Chalk systems: INCA-Chalk. This model is applied to the Lambourn, and results, including hindcast and forecast simulations, are presented. These clearly illustrate the decadal time-scales that need to be considered in the context of nutrient management and the EU Water Framework Directive. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of calcite and gypsum in the leaching of potassium in a sandy soil

Pulses of potassium (K+) applied to columns of repacked calcium (Ca2+) saturated soil were leached with distilled water or calcium chloride (CaCl2) solutions of various concentrations at a rate of 12 mm h(-1). With increased Ca2+ concentration, the rate of movement of K+ increased, as did the concentration of K+ in the displaced pulse, which was less dispersed. The movement of K+ in calcite-amended soil leached with water was at a similar rate to that of the untreated soil leached with 1 mM CaCl2, and in soil containing gypsum, movement was similar to that leached with 15 mM CaCl2. The Ca2+ concentrations in the leachates were about 0.4 and 15 mM respectively the expected values for the dissolution of the two amendments. Soil containing native K+ was leached with distilled water or CaCl2 solutions. The amount of K+ leached increased as Ca2+ concentration increased, with up to 34% of the exchangeable K+ being removed in five pore volumes of 15 mM CaCl2. Soil amended with calcite and leached with water lost K+ at a rate between that for leaching the unamended soil with 1 mM CaCl2 and that with water. Soil containing gypsum and leached with water lost K+ at a similar rate to unamended soil leached with 15 mM CaCl2. The presence of Ca2+ in irrigation water and of soil minerals able to release Ca2+ are of importance in determining the amounts of K+ leached from soils. The LEACHM model predicted approximately the displacement of K+, and was more accurate with higher concentrations of displacing solution. The shortcomings of this model are its inability to account for rate-controlled processes and the assumption that K+:Ca2+ exchange during leaching can be described using a constant adsorption coefficient. As a result, the pulse is predicted to appear a little earlier and the following edge has less of a tail than chat measured. In practical agriculture, the model will be more useful in soils containing gypsum or leached with saline water than in either calcareous or non-calcareous soils leached with rainwater.

Prediction leaching of potassium using the convective-dispersive and the convective log-normal transfer function models

There is increasing concern about soil enrichment with K+ and subsequent potential losses following long-term application of poor quality water to agricultural land. Different models are increasingly being used for predicting or analyzing water flow and chemical transport in soils and groundwater. The convective-dispersive equation (CDE) and the convective log-normal transfer function (CLT) models were fitted to the potassium (K+) leaching data. The CDE and CLT models produced equivalent goodness of fit. Simulated breakthrough curves for a range of CaCl2 concentration based on parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 were characterised by an early peak position associated with higher K+ concentration as the CaCl2 concentration used in leaching experiments decreased. In another method, the parameters estimated from 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 solution were used for all other CaCl2 concentrations, and the best value of retardation factor (R) was optimised for each data set. A better prediction was found. With decreasing CaCl2 concentration the value of R is required to be more than that measured (except for 10 mmol l(-1) CaCl2), if the estimated parameters of 15 mmol l(-1) CaCl2 are used. The two models suffer from the fact that they need to be calibrated against a data set, and some of their parameters are not measurable and cannot be determined independently.

Potassium leaching in undisturbed soil cores following surface applications of gypsum

Displacement studies on leaching of potassium (K+) were conducted under unsaturated steady state flow conditions in nine undisturbed soil columns (15.5 cm in diameter and 25 cm long). Pulses of K+ applied to columns of undisturbed soil were leached with distilled water or calcium chloride (CaCl2) at a rate of 18 mm h(-1). The movement of K+ in gypsum treated soil leached with distilled water was at a similar rate to that of the untreated soil leached with 15 mM CaCl2. The Ca2+ concentrations in the leachates were about 15 mM, the expected values for the dissolution of the gypsum. When applied K+ was displaced with the distilled water, K+ was retained in the top 10-12.5 cm depth of soil. In the undisturbed soil cores there is possibility of preferential flow and lack of K+ sorption. The application of gypsum and CaCl2 in the reclamation of sodic soils would be expected to leach K+ from soils. It can also be concluded that the use of sources of water for irrigation which have a high Ca2+ concentration can also lead to leaching of K+ from soil. Average effluent concentration of K+ during leaching period was 30.2 and 28.6 mg l(-1) for the gypsum and CaCl2 treated soils, respectively. These concentrations are greater than the recommended guideline of the World Health Organisation (12 mg K+ l(-1)).

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales: a statistical analysis of topsoil nutrient status and pH between 1971 and 2001

The Representative Soil Sampling Scheme of England and Wales has recorded information on the soil of agricultural land in England and Wales since 1969. It is a valuable source of information about the soil in the context of monitoring for sustainable agricultural development. Changes in soil nutrient status and pH were examined over the period 1971-2001. Several methods of statistical analysis were applied to data from the surveys during this period. The main focus here is on the data for 1971, 1981, 1991 and 2001. The results of examining change over time in general show that levels of potassium in the soil have increased, those of magnesium have remained fairly constant, those of phosphorus have declined and pH has changed little. Future sampling needs have been assessed in the context of monitoring, to determine the mean at a given level of confidence and tolerable error and to detect change in the mean over time at these same levels over periods of 5 and 10 years. The results of a non-hierarchical multivariate classification suggest that England and Wales could be stratified to optimize future sampling and analysis. To monitor soil quality and health more generally than for agriculture, more of the country should be sampled and a wider range of properties recorded.