Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity.

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture–recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture–recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture–recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture–recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao’s lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates—in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

Nitrogen fertilizer and seed rate effects on Hagberg failing number of hybrid wheats and their parents are associated with alpha-amylase activity, grain cavity size and dormancy

Field experiments were carried out to assess the effects of nitrogen fertilization and seed rate on the Hagberg falling number (HFN) of commercial wheat hybrids and their parents. Applying nitrogen (200 kg N ha(-1)) increased HFN in two successive years. The HFN of the hybrid Hyno Esta was lower than either of its parents (Estica and Audace), particularly when nitrogen was not applied. Treatment effects on HFN were negatively associated with a-amylase activity. Phadebas grain blotting suggested two populations of grains with different types of a-amylase activity: Estica appeared to have a high proportion of grains with low levels of late maturity endosperm a-amylase activity (LMEA); Audace had a few grains showing high levels of germination amylase; and the hybrid, Hyno Esta, combined the sources from both parents to show heterosis for a-amylase activity. Applying nitrogen reduced both apparent LMEA and germination amylase. The effects on LMEA were associated with the size and disruption of the grain cavity, which was greater in Hyno Esta and Estica and in zero-nitrogen treatments. External grain morphology failed to explain much of the variation in LMEA and cavity size, but there was a close negative correlation between cavity size and protein content. Applying nitrogen increased post-harvest dormancy of the grain. Dormancy was greatest in Estica and least in Audace. It is proposed that effects of seed rate, genotype and nitrogen fertilizer on HFN are mediated through factors affecting the size and disruption of the grain cavity and therefore LMEA, and through factors affecting dormancy and therefore germination amylase. (c) 2004 Society of Chemical Industry.

Choosing the number of doses and the cohort size for phase I dose-escalation studies

This paper reviews Bayesian procedures for phase 1 dose-escalation studies and compares different dose schedules and cohort sizes. The methodology described is motivated by the situation of phase 1 dose-escalation studiesin oncology, that is, a single dose administered to each patient, with a single binary response ("toxicity"' or "no toxicity") observed. It is likely that a wider range of applications of the methodology is possible. In this paper, results from 10000-fold simulation runs conducted using the software package Bayesian ADEPT are presented. Four designs were compared under six scenarios. The simulation results indicate that there are slight advantages of having more dose levels and smaller cohort sizes.

Estimating the hidden number of scrapie affected holdings in great Britain using a simple, truncated count model allowing for heterogeneity

None of the current surveillance streams monitoring the presence of scrapie in Great Britain provide a comprehensive and unbiased estimate of the prevalence of the disease at the holding level. Previous work to estimate the under-ascertainment adjusted prevalence of scrapie in Great Britain applied multiple-list capture-recapture methods. The enforcement of new control measures on scrapie-affected holdings in 2004 has stopped the overlapping between surveillance sources and, hence, the application of multiple-list capture-recapture models. Alternative methods, still under the capture-recapture methodology, relying on repeated entries in one single list have been suggested in these situations. In this article, we apply one-list capture-recapture approaches to data held on the Scrapie Notifications Database to estimate the undetected population of scrapie-affected holdings with clinical disease in Great Britain for the years 2002, 2003, and 2004. For doing so, we develop a new diagnostic tool for indication of heterogeneity as well as a new understanding of the Zelterman and Chao's lower bound estimators to account for potential unobserved heterogeneity. We demonstrate that the Zelterman estimator can be viewed as a maximum likelihood estimator for a special, locally truncated Poisson likelihood equivalent to a binomial likelihood. This understanding allows the extension of the Zelterman approach by means of logistic regression to include observed heterogeneity in the form of covariates-in case studied here, the holding size and country of origin. Our results confirm the presence of substantial unobserved heterogeneity supporting the application of our two estimators. The total scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain is around 300 holdings per year. None of the covariates appear to inform the model significantly.

The severity of malarial anaemia in Plasmodium chabaudi infections of BALB/c mice is determined independently of the number of circulating parasites

Background: Severe malarial anaemia is a major complication of malaria infection and is multifactorial resulting from loss of circulating red blood cells (RBCs) from parasite replication, as well as immune-mediated mechanisms. An understanding of the causes of severe malarial anaemia is necessary to develop and implement new therapeutic strategies to tackle this syndrome of malaria infection. Methods: Using analysis of variance, this work investigated whether parasite-destruction of RBCs always accounts for the severity of malarial anaemia during infections of the rodent malaria model Plasmodium chabaudi in mice of a BALB/c background. Differences in anaemia between two different clones of P. chabaudi were also examined. Results: Circulating parasite numbers were not correlated with the severity of anaemia in either BALB/c mice or under more severe conditions of anaemia in BALB/c RAG2 deficient mice (lacking T and B cells). Mice infected with P. chabaudi clone CB suffered more severe anaemia than mice infected with clone AS, but this was not correlated with the number of parasites in the circulation. Instead, the peak percentage of parasitized RBCs was higher in CB-infected animals than in AS-infected animals, and was correlated with the severity of anaemia, suggesting that the availability of uninfected RBCs was impaired in CB-infected animals. Conclusion: This work shows that parasite numbers are a more relevant measure of parasite levels in P. chabaudi infection than % parasitaemia, a measure that does not take anaemia into account. The lack of correlation between parasite numbers and the drop in circulating RBCs in this experimental model of malaria support a role for the host response in the impairment or destruction of uninfected RBC in P. chabaudi infections, and thus development of acute anaemia in this malaria model.

Optimal 3D surface reconstruction from a small number of conventional 2D X-ray images

This paper describes a method for reconstructing 3D frontier points, contour generators and surfaces of anatomical objects or smooth surfaces from a small number, e. g. 10, of conventional 2D X-ray images. The X-ray images are taken at different viewing directions with full prior knowledge of the X-ray source and sensor configurations. Unlike previous works, we empirically demonstrate that if the viewing directions are uniformly distributed around the object's viewing sphere, then the reconstructed 3D points automatically cluster closely on a highly curved part of the surface and are widely spread on smooth or flat parts. The advantage of this property is that the reconstructed points along a surface or a contour generator are not under-sampled or under-represented because surfaces or contours should be sampled or represented with more densely points where their curvatures are high. The more complex the contour's shape, the greater is the number of points required, but the greater the number of points is automatically generated by the proposed method. Given that the number of viewing directions is fixed and the viewing directions are uniformly distributed, the number and distribution of the reconstructed points depend on the shape or the curvature of the surface regardless of the size of the surface or the size of the object. The technique may be used not only in medicine but also in industrial applications.

Detecting the number of signals using antenna array: a single threshold solution

A new approach is presented to identify the number of incoming signals in antenna array processing. The new method exploits the inherent properties existing in the noise eigenvalues of the covariance matrix of the array output. A single threshold has been established concerning information about the signal and noise strength, data length, and array size. When the subspace-based algorithms are adopted the computation cost of the signal number detector can almost be neglected. The performance of the threshold is robust against low SNR and short data length.

Olive oil increases the number of triacylglycerol-rich chylomicron particles compared with other oils: an effect retained when a second standard meal is fed

Background: Compared with the postprandial events after a single meal, different events occur when a second meal is ingested 4–6 h after a first meal. There is a rapid appearance of chylomicrons in the circulation carrying fat ingested with the first meal, with a peak 1 h after the second meal. Objective: Our goal was to examine whether different dietary oils have effects on the storage of triacylglycerol as a result of differences in their digestion, absorption, and incorporation into chylomicrons. Design: A single-blind, randomized, within-subject crossover design was used to study the effects of palm oil, safflower oil, a mixture of fish and safflower oil, and olive oil on postprandial apolipoprotein (apo) B-48, retinyl ester, and triacylglycerol in the Sf > 400 fraction with the use of a sequential meal protocol. Results: For triacylglycerol, retinyl ester, and apo B-48, the time to reach peak concentration was significantly earlier after the second meal than after the first meal (P < 0.005). This was apparent with each of the dietary oils. The pattern of the apo B-48 response differed significantly among the dietary oils, with olive oil resulting in higher concentrations after both meals (P = 0.003). The ratio of triacylglycerol to apo B-48 was significantly lower after olive oil feeding than after feeding with the other oils (P = 0.02). Conclusions: The rapid entry of chylomicrons after the ingestion of a second meal 5 h after a first meal was seen with all of the oils investigated. The short-term ingestion of olive oil produced more chylomicrons than did the other dietary oils, which may have been due to differences in the metabolic handling of olive oil within the gut.

Reduced height alleles (Rht) and Hagberg falling number of wheat

Near isogenic lines varying for alleles for reduced height (Rht) and photoperiod insensitivity (Ppd-D1) in cv. Mercia (2005/6 to 2010/11; rht (tall), Rht-B1b, Rht-D1b, Rht-B1c, Rht8c+Ppd-D1a, Rht-D1c, Rht12) and cvs Maris Huntsman and Maris Widgeon (2007/8 to 2010/11; rht (tall), Rht-B1b, Rht-D1b, Rht-B1c, Rht-B1b+Rht-D1b, Rht-D1b+Rht-B1c) were compared at one field site, but within different systems (‘organic’, O, 2005/6 to 2007/8 v ‘intensive’, I, 2005/6 to 2010/11). Further experiments at the site (2006/7 to 2008/9) compared 64 lines of a doubled haploid (DH) population [Savannah (Rht-D1b) × Renesansa (Rht-8c+Ppd-D1a)]. Gibberellin (GA) insensitive dwarfing alleles (Rht-B1b; Rht-B1c; Rht-D1b; Rht-D1c) could reduce α-amylase activity and/or increase Hagberg falling number (HFN) but effects depended greatly on system, background and season. Only Rht-B1c increased grain dormancy despite producing plants taller than Rht-D1c. The GA-sensitive Rht8c+Ppd-D1a in Mercia was associated with reduced HFN but analysis of the DH population suggested this was more closely linked with Ppd-D1a, rather than Rht8c. The severe GA-sensitive dwarfing allele Rht12 was associated with reduced HFN. Instability in HFN over season tended to increase with degree of dwarfing. There was a negative association between mean grain weight and HFN that was in addition to effects of Rht and Ppd-D1 allele.

Social equality in the number of choice options is represented in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex

A distinct aspect of the sense of fairness in humans is that we care not only about equality in material rewards but also about equality in non-material values. One such value is the opportunity to choose freely among many options, often regarded as a fundamental right to economic freedom. In modern developed societies, equal opportunities in work, living, and lifestyle are enforced by anti-discrimination laws. Despite the widespread endorsement of equal opportunity, no studies have explored how people assign value to it. We used functional magnetic resonance imaging to identify the neural substrates for subjective valuation of equality in choice opportunity. Participants performed a two-person choice task in which the number of choices available was varied across trials independently of choice outcomes. By using this procedure, we manipulated the degree of equality in choice opportunity between players and dissociated it from the value of reward outcomes and their equality. We found that activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex tracked the degree to which the number of options between the two players was equal. In contrast, activation in the ventral striatum tracked the number of options available to participants themselves but not the equality between players. Our results demonstrate that the vmPFC, a key brain region previously implicated in the processing of social values, is also involved in valuation of equality in choice opportunity between individuals. These findings may provide valuable insight into the human ability to value equal opportunity, a characteristic long emphasized in politics, economics, and philosophy.

Competitive fitness in coronaviruses is not correlated with size or number of double-membrane vesicles under reduced-temperature growth conditions

Positive-stranded viruses synthesize their RNA in membrane-bound organelles, but it is not clear how this benefits the virus or the host. For coronaviruses, these organelles take the form of double-membrane vesicles (DMVs) interconnected by a convoluted membrane network. We used electron microscopy to identify murine coronaviruses with mutations in nsp3 and nsp14 that replicated normally while producing only half the normal amount of DMVs. Viruses with mutations in nsp5 and nsp16 produced small DMVs but also replicated normally. Quantitative RT-PCR confirmed that the most strongly affected of these, the nsp3 mutant, produced more viral RNA than wild-type virus. Competitive growth assays were carried out in both continuous and primary cells to better understand the contribution of DMVs to viral fitness. Surprisingly, several viruses that produced fewer or smaller DMVs showed a higher relative fitness compared to wild-type virus, suggesting that larger and more numerous DMVs do not necessarily confer a competitive advantage in primary or continuous cell culture. For the first time, this directly demonstrates that replication and organelle formation may be, at least in part, studied separately during positive-stranded RNA virus infection.

Occurrence probability, width and number of steps of cusp precipitation for fully pulsed reconnection at the dayside magnetopause

We discuss the characteristics of magnetosheath plasma precipitation in the “cusp” ionosphere for when the reconnection at the dayside magnetopause takes place only in a series of pulses. It is shown that even in this special case, the low-altitude cusp precipitation is continuous, unless the intervals between the pulses are longer than observed intervals between magnetopause flux transfer event (FTE) signatures. We use FTE observation statistics to predict, for this case of entirely pulsed reconnection, the occurrence frequency, the distribution of latitudinal widths, and the number of ion dispersion steps of the cusp precipitation for a variety of locations of the reconnection site and a range of values of the local de-Hoffman Teller velocity. It is found that the cusp occurrence frequency is comparable with observed values for virtually all possible locations of the reconnection site. The distribution of cusp width is also comparable with observations and is shown to be largely dependent on the distribution of the mean reconnection rate, but pulsing the reconnection does very slightly increase the width of that distribution compared with the steady state case. We conclude that neither cusp occurrence probability nor width can be used to evaluate the relative occurrence of reconnection behaviors that are entirely pulsed, pulsed but continuous and quasi-steady. We show that the best test of the relative frequency of these three types of reconnection is to survey the distribution of steps in the cusp ion dispersion characteristics.

Analysis of the distribution of the number of bidders in construction contract auctions

The number of bidders, N, involved in a construction procurement auction is known to have an important effect on the value of the lowest bid and the mark-up applied by bidders. In practice, for example, it is important for a bidder to have a good estimate of N when bidding for a current contract. One approach, instigated by Friedman in 1956, is to make such an estimate by statistical analysis and modelling. Since then, however, finding a suitable model for N has been an enduring problem for researchers and, despite intensive research activity in the subsequent 30 years, little progress has been made, due principally to the absence of new ideas and perspectives. The debate is resumed by checking old assumptions, providing new evidence relating to concomitant variables and proposing a new model. In doing this and in order to ensure universality, a novel approach is developed and tested by using a unique set of 12 construction tender databases from four continents. This shows the new model provides a significant advancement on previous versions. Several new research questions are also posed and other approaches identified for future study.