Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Uniqueness of signature for simple curves

We propose a topological approach to the problem of determining a curve from its iterated integrals. In particular, we prove that a family of terms in the signature series of a two dimensional closed curve with finite p-variation, 1≤p<2, are in fact moments of its winding number. This relation allows us to prove that the signature series of a class of simple non-smooth curves uniquely determine the curves. This implies that outside a Chordal SLEκ null set, where 0<κ≤4, the signature series of curves uniquely determine the curves. Our calculations also enable us to express the Fourier transform of the n-point functions of SLE curves in terms of the expected signature of SLE curves. Although the techniques used in this article are deterministic, the results provide a platform for studying SLE curves through the signatures of their sample paths.

Approximations to the scattering of water waves by steep topography

A new method is developed for approximating the scattering of linear surface gravity waves on water of varying quiescent depth in two dimensions. A conformal mapping of the fluid domain onto a uniform rectangular strip transforms steep and discontinuous bed profiles into relatively slowly varying, smooth functions in the transformed free-surface condition. By analogy with the mild-slope approach used extensively in unmapped domains, an approximate solution of the transformed problem is sought in the form of a modulated propagating wave which is determined by solving a second-order ordinary differential equation. This can be achieved numerically, but an analytic solution in the form of a rapidly convergent infinite series is also derived and provides simple explicit formulae for the scattered wave amplitudes. Small-amplitude and slow variations in the bedform that are excluded from the mapping procedure are incorporated in the approximation by a straightforward extension of the theory. The error incurred in using the method is established by means of a rigorous numerical investigation and it is found that remarkably accurate estimates of the scattered wave amplitudes are given for a wide range of bedforms and frequencies.

Torque in mooring chain. Part 1: Background and theory

Chain in both its forms - common (or stud-less) and stud-link - has many engineering applications. It is widely used as a component in the moorings of offshore floating systems, where its ruggedness and corrosion resistance make it an attractive choice. Chain exhibits some interesting behaviour in that when straight and subject to an axial load it does not twist or generate any torque, but if twisted or loaded when in a twisted condition it behaves in a highly non-linear manner, with the torque dependent upon the level of twist and axial load. Clearly an understanding of the way in which chains may behave and interact with other mooring components (such as wire rope, which also exhibits coupling between axial load and generated torque) when they are in service is essential. However, the sizes of chain that are in use in offshore moorings (typical bar diameters are 75 mm and greater) are too large to allow easy testing. This paper, which is in two parts, aims to address the issues and considerations relevant to torque in mooring chain. The first part introduces a frictionless theory that predicts the resultant torques and 'lift' in the links as non-dimensionalized functions of the angle of twist. Fortran code is presented in an Appendix, which allows the reader to make use of the analysis. The second part of the paper presents results from experimental work on both stud-less (41 mm) and stud-link (20.5 and 56 mm) chains. Torsional data are presented in both 'constant twist' and 'constant load' forms, as well as considering the lift between the links.

Torque in mooring chain. Part 2: Experimental investigation

Chain is a commonly used component in offshore moorings where its ruggedness and corrosion resistance make it an attractive choice. Another attractive property is that a straight chain is inherently torque balanced. Having said this, if a chain is loaded in a twisted condition, or twisted when under load, it exhibits highly non-linear torsional behaviour. The consequences of this behaviour can cause handling difficulties or may compromise the integrity of the mooring system, and care must be taken to avoid problems for both the chain and any components to which it is connected. Even with knowledge of the potential problems, there will always be occasions where, despite the utmost care, twist is unavoidable. Thus it is important for the engineer to be able to determine the effects. A frictionless theory has been developed in Part 1 of the paper that may be used to predict the resultant torques and movement or 'lift' in the links as non-dimensional functions of the angle of twist. The present part of the paper describes a series of experiments undertaken on both studless and stud-link chain to allow comparison of this theoretical model with experimental data. Results are presented for the torsional response and link lift for 'constant twist' and 'constant load' type tests on chains of three different link sizes.

A note on an integration by parts formula for the generators of uniform translations on configuration space

An integration by parts formula is derived for the first order differential operator corresponding to the action of translations on the space of locally finite simple configurations of infinitely many points on Rd. As reference measures, tempered grand canonical Gibbs measures are considered corresponding to a non-constant non-smooth intensity (one-body potential) and translation invariant potentials fulfilling the usual conditions. It is proven that such Gibbs measures fulfill the intuitive integration by parts formula if and only if the action of the translation is not broken for this particular measure. The latter is automatically fulfilled in the high temperature and low intensity regime.

Bootstrapping prediction intervals for autoregressive models

Methods of improving the coverage of Box–Jenkins prediction intervals for linear autoregressive models are explored. These methods use bootstrap techniques to allow for parameter estimation uncertainty and to reduce the small-sample bias in the estimator of the models’ parameters. In addition, we also consider a method of bias-correcting the non-linear functions of the parameter estimates that are used to generate conditional multi-step predictions.

Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) inhibit vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation via differential effects on the cell cycle

Abnormal vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation plays an important role in the pathogenesis of both atherosclerosis and restenosis. Recent studies suggest that high-dose salicylates, in addition to inhibiting cyclooxygenase activity, exert an antiproliferative effect on VSMC growth both in-vitro and in-vivo. However, whether all non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) exert similar anti proliferative effects on VSMCs, and do so via a common mechanism of action, remains to be shown. In this study, we demonstrate that the NSAIDs aspirin, sodium salicylate, diclofenac, ibuprofen, indometacin and sulindac induce a dose-dependent inhibition of proliferation in rat A10 VSMCs in the absence of significant cytotoxicity. Flow cytometric analyses showed that exposure of A10 cells to diclofenac, indometacin, ibuprofen and sulindac, in the presence of the mitotic inhibitor, nocodazole, led to a significant G0/G1 arrest. In contrast, the salicylates failed to induce a significant G1 arrest since flow cytometry profiles were not significantly different from control cells. Cyclin A levels were elevated, and hyperphosphorylated p107 was present at significant levels, in salicylate-treated A10 cells, consistent with a post-G1/S block, whereas cyclin A levels were low, and hypophosphorylated p107 was the dominant form, in cells treated with other NSAIDs consistent with a G1 arrest. The ubiquitously expressed cyclin-dependent kinase (CDK) inhibitors, p21 and p27, were increased in all NSAID-treated cells. Our results suggest that diclofenac, indometacin, ibuprofen and sulindac inhibit VSMC proliferation by arresting the cell cycle in the G1 phase, whereas the growth inhibitory effect of salicylates probably affects the late S and/or G2/M phases. Irrespective of mechanism, our results suggest that NSAIDs might be of benefit in the treatment of certain vasculoproliferative disorders.

Inhibition of vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation by non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs

Abnormal vascular smooth muscle cell (VSMC) proliferation is known to play an important role in the pathogenesis of atherosclerosis, restenosis and instent stenosis. Recent studies suggest that salicylates, in addition to inhibiting cyclooxygenase activity, exert an antiproliferative effect on VSMC growth both in vitro and in vivo. However, whether all non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAID) exert similar antiproliferative effects on VSMCs, and do so via a common mechanism of action, remains unknown. In the present study, we demonstrated that the NSAIDs, aspirin, ibuprofen and sulindac induced a dose-dependent inhibition of proliferation in rat A10 VSMCs (IC50 = 1666 mumol/L, 937 mumol/L and 520 mumol/L, respectively). These drugs did not show significant cytotoxic effects as determined by LDH release assay, even at the highest concentrations tested (aspirin, 5000 mumol/L; ibuprofen, 2500 mumol/L; and sulindac, 1000 mumol/L). Flow cytometric analyses showed that a 48 h exposure of A10 VSMCs to ibuprofen (1000 mumol/L) and sulindac (750 mumol/L) led to a significant G1 arrest (from 68.7 +/- 2.0% of cells in G1 to 76.6 +/- 2.2% and 75.8 +/- 2.2%, respectively, p < 0.05). In contrast, aspirin (2500 mumol/L) failed to induce a significant G1 arrest (68.1 +/- 5.2%). Clearer evidence of a G1 block was obtained by treatment of cells with the mitotic inhibitor, nocodazole (40 ng/ml), for the final 24 h of the experiment. Under these conditions, aspirin still failed to induce a G1 arrest (from 25.9 +/- 10.9% of cells in G1 to 19.6 +/- 2.3%) whereas ibuprofen and sulindac led to a significant accumulation of cells in G1(51.8% +/- 17.2% and 54.1% +/- 10.6%, respectively, p < 0.05). These results indicate that ibuprofen and sulindac inhibit VSMC proliferation by arresting the cell cycle in the G1 phase whereas the effect of aspirin appears to be independent of any special phase of the cell cycle. Irrespective of mechanism, our results suggest that NSAIDs might be of benefit to the treatment of vascular proliferative disorders.

Rhinocetin, a venom-derived integrin-specific antagonist inhibits collagen-induced platelet and endothelial cell functions

Snaclecs are small non-enzymatic proteins present in viper venoms reported to modulate haemostasis of victims through effects on platelets, vascular endothelial and smooth muscle cells. In this study, we have isolated and functionally characterised a snaclec which we named rhinocetin from the venom of West African gaboon viper, Bitis gabonica rhinoceros. Rhinocetin was shown to comprise α and β chains with the molecular masses of 13.5 and 13kDa respectively. Sequence and immunoblot analysis of rhinocetin confirmed this to be a novel snaclec. Rhinocetin inhibited collagen-stimulated activation of human platelets in dose dependent manner, but displayed no inhibitory effects on glycoprotein VI (collagen receptor) selective agonist, CRP-XL-, ADP- or thrombin-induced platelet activation. Rhinocetin antagonised the binding of monoclonal antibodies against the α2 subunit of integrin α2β1 to platelets and coimmunoprecipitation analysis confirmed integrin α2β1 as a target for this venom protein. Rhinocetin inhibited a range of collagen induced platelet functions such as fibrinogen binding, calcium mobilisation, granule secretion, aggregation and thrombus formation. It also inhibited integrin α2β1 dependent functions of human endothelial cells. Together, our data suggest rhinocetin to be a modulator of integrin α2β1 function and thus may provide valuable insights into the role of this integrin in physiological and pathophysiological scenarios including haemostasis, thrombosis and envenomation.

Conditional mean functions of non-linear models of US output

We compare a number of models of post War US output growth in terms of the degree and pattern of non-linearity they impart to the conditional mean, where we condition on either the previous period's growth rate, or the previous two periods' growth rates. The conditional means are estimated non-parametrically using a nearest-neighbour technique on data simulated from the models. In this way, we condense the complex, dynamic, responses that may be present in to graphical displays of the implied conditional mean.

Roles of the non-medical prescribing leads within organisations across a Strategic Health Authority: perceived functions and factors supporting the role

Objectives Extending the roles of nurses, pharmacists and allied health professionals to include prescribing has been identified as one way of improving service provision. In the UK, over 50 000 non-medical healthcare professionals are now qualified to prescribe. Implementation of non-medical prescribing ( NMP) is crucial to realise the potential return on investment. The UK Department of Health recommends a NMP lead to be responsible for the implementation of NMP within organisations. The aim of this study was to explore the role of NMP leads in organisations across one Strategic Health Authority (SHA) and to inform future planning with regards to the criteria for those adopting this role, the scope of the role and factors enabling the successful execution of the role. Methods Thirty-nine NMP leads across one SHA were approached. Semi-structured telephone interviews were conducted. Issues explored included the perceived role of the NMP lead, safety and clinical governance procedures and facilitators to the role. Transcribed audiotapes were coded and analysed using thematic analytical techniques. Key findings In total, 27/39 (69.2%) NMP leads were interviewed. The findings highlight the key role that the NMP lead plays with regards to the support and development of NMP within National Health Service trusts. Processes used to appoint NMP leads lacked clarity and varied between trusts. Only two NMP leads had designated or protected time for their role. Strategic influence, operational management and clinical governance were identified as key functions. Factors that supported the role included organisational support, level of influence and dedicated time. Conclusion The NMP lead plays a significant role in the development and implementation of NMP. Clear national guidance is needed with regards to the functions of this role, the necessary attributes for individuals recruited into this post and the time that should be designated to it. This is important as prescribing is extended to include other groups of non-medical healthcare professionals.

A comparative evaluation of functions for partitioning nitrogen and amino acid intake between maintenance and growth in broilers

The results from three types of study with broilers, namely nitrogen (N) balance, bioassays and growth experiments, provided the data used herein. Sets of data on N balance and protein accretion (bioassay studies) were used to assess the ability of the monomolecular equation to describe the relationship between (i) N balance and amino acid (AA) intake and (ii) protein accretion and AA intake. The model estimated the levels of isoleucine, lysine, valine, threonine, methionine, total sulphur AAs and tryptophan resulting in zero balance to be 58, 59, 80, 96, 23, 85 and 32 mg/kg live weight (LW)/day, respectively. These estimates show good agreement with those obtained in previous studies. For the growth experiments, four models, specifically re-parameterized for analysing energy balance data, were evaluated for their ability to determine crude protein (CP) intake at maintenance and efficiency of utilization of CP intake for producing gain. They were: a straight line, two equations representing diminishing returns behaviour (monomolecular and rectangular hyperbola) and one equation describing smooth sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflexion (Gompertz). The estimates of CP requirement for maintenance and efficiency of utilization of CP intake for producing gain varied from 5.4 to 5.9 g/kg LW/day and 0.60 to 0.76, respectively, depending on the models.

A comparative evaluation of functions for the analysis of growth in male broilers

Data from six studies with male broilers fed diets covering a wide range of energy and protein were used in the current two analyses. In the first analysis, five models, specifically re-parameterized for analysing energy balance data, were evaluated for their ability to determine metabolizable energy intake at maintenance and efficiency of utilization of metabolizable energy intake for producing gain. In addition to the straight line, two types of functional form were used. They were forms describing (i) diminishing returns behaviour (monomolecular and rectangular hyperbola) and (ii) sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflection (Gompertz and logistic). These models determined metabolizable energy requirement for maintenance to be in the range 437-573 kJ/kg of body weight/day depending on the model. The values determined for average net energy requirement for body weight gain varied from 7(.)9 to 11(.)2 kJ/g of body weight. These values show good agreement with previous studies. In the second analysis, three types of function were assessed as candidates for describing the relationship between body weight and cumulative metabolizable energy intake. The functions used were: (a) monomolecular (diminishing returns behaviour), (b) Gompertz (smooth sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflection) and (c) Lopez, France and Richards (diminishing returns and sigmoidal behaviour with a variable point of inflection). The results of this analysis demonstrated that equations capable of mimicking the law of diminishing returns describe accurately the relationship between body weight and cumulative metabolizable energy intake in broilers.

A comparative evaluation of functions for describing the relationship between live-weight gain and metabolizable energy intake in turkeys

The suitability of models specifically re-parameterized for analyzing energy balance data relating metabolizable energy intake to growth rate has recently been investigated in male broilers. In this study, the more adequate of those models was applied to growing turkeys to provide estimates of their energy needs for maintenance and growth. Three functional forms were used. They were: two equations representing diminishing returns behaviour (monomolecular and rectangular hyperbola); and one equation describing smooth sigmoidal behaviour with a fixed point of inflexion (Gompertz). The models estimated the metabolizable energy requirement for maintenance in turkeys to be 359-415 kJ/kg of live-weight/day. The predicted values of average net energy requirement for producing 1 g of gain in live-weight, between 1 and 4 times maintenance, varied from 8.7 to 10.9 kJ. These results and those previously reported for broilers are a basis for accepting the general validity of these models.