Non-existence of competitive equilibria with dynamically inconsistent preferences

This paper shows the robust non-existence of competitive equilibria even in a simple three period representative agent economy with dynamically inconsistent preferences. We distinguish between a sophisticated and naive representative agent. Even when underlying preferences are monotone and convex, at given prices, we show by example that the induced preference of the sophisticated representative agent over choices in first-period markets is both non-convex and satiated. Even allowing for negative prices, the market-clearing allocation is not contained in the convex hull of demand. Finally, with a naive representative agent, we show that perfect foresight is incompatible with market clearing and individual optimization at given prices.

What's in a name? Lexical knowledge drives infants' visual preferences in the absence of referential input

Seventeen-month-old infants were presented with pairs of images, in silence or with the non-directive auditory stimulus 'look!'. The images had been chosen so that one image depicted an item whose name was known to the infant, and the other image depicted an image whose name was not known to the infant. Infants looked longer at images for which they had names than at images for which they did not have names, despite the absence of any referential input. The experiment controlled for the familiarity of the objects depicted: in each trial, image pairs presented to infants had previously been judged by caregivers to be of roughly equal familiarity. From a theoretical perspective, the results indicate that objects with names are of intrinsic interest to the infant. The possible causal direction for this linkage is discussed and it is concluded that the results are consistent with Whorfian linguistic determinism, although other construals are possible. From a methodological perspective, the results have implications for the use of preferential looking as an index of early word comprehension.

Bayesian estimation of willingness-to-pay where respondents mis-report their preferences

We introduce a modified conditional logit model that takes account of uncertainty associated with mis-reporting in revealed preference experiments estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). Like Hausman et al. [Journal of Econometrics (1988) Vol. 87, pp. 239-269], our model captures the extent and direction of uncertainty by respondents. Using a Bayesian methodology, we apply our model to a choice modelling (CM) data set examining UK consumer preferences for non-pesticide food. We compare the results of our model with the Hausman model. WTP estimates are produced for different groups of consumers and we find that modified estimates of WTP, that take account of mis-reporting, are substantially revised downwards. We find a significant proportion of respondents mis-reporting in favour of the non-pesticide option. Finally, with this data set, Bayes factors suggest that our model is preferred to the Hausman model.

Comparative advantage in demand: Experimental evidence of preferences for genetically modified food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union (EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers' attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large-scale, cross-Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non-hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focusses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on-going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.

Mixed Logit Model Performance and Distributional Assumptions: Preferences and GM foods

Using mixed logit models to analyse choice data is common but requires ex ante specification of the functional forms of preference distributions. We make the case for greater use of bounded functional forms and propose the use of the Marginal Likelihood, calculated using Bayesian techniques, as a single measure of model performance across non nested mixed logit specifications. Using this measure leads to very different rankings of model specifications compared to alternative rule of thumb measures. The approach is illustrated using data from a choice experiment regarding GM food types which provides insights regarding the recent WTO dispute between the EU and the US, Canada and Argentina and whether labelling and trade regimes should be based on the production process or product composition.

Amino acid pairing preferences in parallel beta-sheets in proteins

Statistical approaches have been applied to examine amino acid pairing preferences within parallel beta-sheets. The main chain hydrogen bonding pattern in parallel beta-sheets means that, for each residue pair, only one of the residues is involved in main chain hydrogen bonding with the strand containing the partner residue. We call this the hydrogen bonded (HB) residue and the partner residue the non-hydrogen bonded (nHB) residue, and differentiate between the favorability of a pair and that of its reverse pair, e.g. Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB)versus Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB). Significantly (p < or = 0.000001) favoured pairings were rationalised using stereochemical arguments. For instance, Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB) and Arg(HB)-Thr(nHB) were favoured pairs, where the residues adopted favoured chi1 rotamer positions that allowed side-chain interactions to occur. In contrast, Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB) and Thr(HB)-Arg(nHB) were not significantly favoured, and could only form side-chain interactions if the residues involved adopted less favourable chi1 conformations. The favourability of hydrophobic pairs e.g. Ile(HB)-Ile(nHB), Val(HB)-Val(nHB) and Leu(HB)-Ile(nHB) was explained by the residues adopting their most preferred chi1 and chi2 conformations, which enabled them to form nested arrangements. Cysteine-cysteine pairs are significantly favoured, although these do not form intrasheet disulphide bridges. Interactions between positively and negatively charged residues were asymmetrically preferred: those with the negatively charged residue at the HB position were more favoured. This trend was accounted for by the presence of general electrostatic interactions, which, based on analysis of distances between charged atoms, were likely to be stronger when the negatively charged residue is the HB partner. The Arg(HB)-Asp(nHB) interaction was an exception to this trend and its favorability was rationalised by the formation of specific side-chain interactions. This research provides rules that could be applied to protein structure prediction, comparative modelling and protein engineering and design. The methods used to analyse the pairing preferences are automated and detailed results are available (http://www.rubic.rdg.ac.uk/betapairprefsparallel/).

Amino acid pairing preferences in parallel beta-sheets in proteins

Statistical approaches have been applied to examine amino acid pairing preferences within parallel beta-sheets. The main chain hydrogen bonding pattern in parallel beta-sheets means that, for each residue pair, only one of the residues is involved in main chain hydrogen bonding with the strand containing the partner residue. We call this the hydrogen bonded (HB) residue and the partner residue the non-hydrogen bonded (nHB) residue, and differentiate between the favourability of a pair and that of its reverse pair, e.g. Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB) versus Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB). Significantly (p <= 0.000001) favoured pairings were rationalised using stereochemical arguments. For instance, Asn(HB)-Thr(nHB) and Arg(HB)-Thr(nHB) were favoured pairs, where the residues adopted favoured chi(1) rotamer positions that allowed side-chain interactions to occur. In contrast, Thr(HB)-Asn(nHB) and Thr(HB)-Arg(nHB) were not significantly favoured, and could only form side-chain interactions if the residues involved adopted less favourable chi(1) conformations. The favourability of hydrophobic pairs e.g. Ile(HB)-Ile(nHB), Val(HB)-Val(nHB) and Leu(HB)-Ile(nHB) was explained by the residues adopting their most preferred chi(1) and chi(2) conformations, which enabled them to form nested arrangements. Cysteine-cysteine pairs are significantly favoured, although these do not form intrasheet disulphide bridges. Interactions between positively and negatively charged residues were asymmetrically preferred: those with the negatively charged residue at the HB position were more favoured. This trend was accounted for by the presence of general electrostatic interactions, which, based on analysis of distances between charged atoms, were likely to be stronger when the negatively charged residue is the HB partner. The Arg(HB)-Asp(nHB) interaction was an exception to this trend and its favourability was rationalised by the formation of specific side-chain interactions. This research provides rules that could be applied to protein structure prediction, comparative modelling and protein engineering and design. The methods used to analyse the pairing preferences are automated and detailed results are available (http:// www.rubic.rdg.ac.uk/betapairprefsparallel/). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Divided attention, selective attention and drawing: processing preferences in Williams syndrome are dependent on the task administered

The visuo-spatial abilities of individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) have consistently been shown to be generally weak. These poor visuo-spatial abilities have been ascribed to a local processing bias by some [R. Rossen, E.S. Klima, U. Bellugi, A. Bihrle, W. Jones, Interaction between language and cognition: evidence from Williams syndrome, in: J. Beitchman, N. Cohen, M. Konstantareas, R. Tannock (Eds.), Language, Learning and Behaviour disorders: Developmental, Behavioural and Clinical Perspectives, Cambridge University Press, New York, 1996, pp. 367-392] and conversely, to a global processing bias by others [Psychol. Sci. 10 (1999) 453]. In this study, two identification versions and one drawing version of the Navon hierarchical processing task, a non-verbal task, were employed to investigate this apparent contradiction. The two identification tasks were administered to 21 individuals with WS, 21 typically developing individuals, matched by non-verbal ability, and 21 adult participants matched to the WS group by mean chronological age (CA). The third, drawing task was administered to the WS group and the typically developing (TD) controls only. It was hypothesised that the WS group would show differential processing biases depending on the type of processing the task was measuring. Results from two identification versions of the Navon task measuring divided and selective attention showed that the WS group experienced equal interference from global to local as from local to global levels, and did not show an advantage of one level over another. This pattern of performance was broadly comparable to that of the control groups. The third task, a drawing version of the Navon task, revealed that individuals with WS were significantly better at drawing the local form in comparison to the global figure, whereas the typically developing control group did not show a bias towards either level. In summary, this study demonstrates that individuals with WS do not have a local or a global processing bias when asked to identify stimuli, but do show a local bias in their drawing abilities. This contrast may explain the apparently contrasting findings from previous studies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Exploring farmer preferences for contagious bovine pleuropneumonia vaccination: a case study of Narok District, Kenya

Contagious bovine pleuropneumonia (CBPP) is an economically important disease in most of sub-Saharan Africa. A conjoint analysis and ordered probit regression models were used to measure the preferences of farmers for CBPP vaccine and vaccination attributes. This was with regard to inclusion or not of an indicator in the vaccine, vaccine safety, vaccine stability as well as frequency of vaccination, vaccine administration and the nature of vaccination. The analysis was carried out in 190 households in Narok District of Kenya between October and December 2006 using structured questionnaires, 16 attribute profiles and a five-point Likert scale. The factors affecting attribute valuation were shown through a two-way location interaction model. The study also demonstrated the relative importance (RI) of attributes and the compensation value of attribute levels. The attribute coefficient estimates showed that farmers prefer a vaccine that has an indicator, is 100% safe and is administered by the government (p<0.0001). The preferences for the vaccine attributes were consistent with expectations. Preferences for stability, frequency of vaccination and nature of vaccination differed amongst farmers (p>0.05). While inclusion of an indicator in the vaccine was the most important attribute (RI=43.6%), price was the least important (RI=0.5%). Of the 22 household factors considered, 15 affected attribute valuation. The compensation values for a change from non inclusion to inclusion of an indicator, 95-100% safety, 2h to greater than 2h stability and from compulsory to elective vaccination were positive while those for a change from annual to biannual vaccination and from government to private administration were negative. The study concluded that the farmers in Narok District had preferences for specific vaccine and vaccination attributes. These preferences were conditioned by various household characteristics and disease risk factors. On average the farmers would need to be compensated or persuaded to accept biannual and private vaccination against CBPP. There is need for consideration of farmer preferences for vaccine attribute levels during vaccine formulations and farmer preferences for vaccination attribute levels when designing delivery of vaccines.

Formulaic sequences in native and non-native argumentative writing in German

Whereas there is substantial scholarship on formulaic language in L1 and L2 English, there is less research on formulaicity in other languages. The aim of this paper is to contribute to learner corpus research into formulaic language in native and non-native German. To this effect, a corpus of argumentative essays written by advanced British students of German (WHiG) was compared with a corpus of argumentative essays written by German native speakers (Falko-L1). A corpus-driven analysis reveals a larger number of 3-grams in WHiG than in Falko-L1, which suggests that British advanced learners of German are more likely to use formulaic language in argumentative writing than their native-speaker counterparts. Secondly, by classifying the formulaic sequences according to their functions, this study finds that native speakers of German prefer discourse-structuring devices to stance expressions, whilst British advanced learners display the opposite preferences. Thirdly, the results show that learners of German make greater use of macro-discourse-structuring devices and cautious language, whereas native speakers favour micro-discourse structuring devices and tend to use more direct language. This study increases our understanding of formulaic language typical of British advanced learners of German and reveals how diverging cultural paradigms can shape written native speaker and learner output.

Joint use of attribute importance rankings and non-attendance data in choice experiments

The joint and alternative uses of attribute non-attendance and importance ranking data within discrete choice experiments are investigated using data from Lebanon examining consumers’ preferences for safety certification in food. We find that both types of information; attribute non-attendance and importance rankings, improve estimates of respondent utility. We introduce a method of integrating both types of information simultaneously and find that this outperforms models where either importance ranking or non-attendance data are used alone. As in previous studies, stated non-attendance of attributes was not found to be consistent with respondents having zero marginal utility for those attributes