On the natural variability of the pre-industrial European climate

We suggest that climate variability in Europe for the “pre-industrial” period 1500–1900 is fundamentally a consequence of internal fluctuations of the climate system. This is because a model simulation, using fixed pre-industrial forcing, in several important aspects is consistent with recent observational reconstructions at high temporal resolution. This includes extreme warm and cold seasonal events as well as different measures of the decadal to multi-decadal variance. Significant trends of 50-year duration can be seen in the model simulation. While the global temperature is highly correlated with ENSO (El Nino- Southern Oscillation), European seasonal temperature is only weakly correlated with the global temperature broadly consistent with data from ERA-40 reanalyses. Seasonal temperature anomalies of the European land area are largely controlled by the position of the North Atlantic storm tracks. We believe the result is highly relevant for the interpretation of past observational records suggesting that the effect of external forcing appears to be of secondary importance. That variations in the solar irradiation could have been a credible cause of climate variations during the last centuries, as suggested in some previous studies, is presumably due to the fact that the models used in these studies may have underestimated the internal variability of the climate. The general interpretation from this study is that the past climate is just one of many possible realizations and thus in many respects not reproducible in its time evolution with a general circulation model but only reproducible in a statistical sense.

Intra-specific variation affects the structure of the natural enemy assemblage attacking pea aphid colonies

1. Intra-specific variation in plant defence traits has been shown to profoundly affect herbivore community structure. Here we describe two experiments designed to test whether similar effects occur at higher trophic levels, by studying pea aphid–natural enemy interactions in a disused pasture in southern England. 2. In the first experiment, the numbers and identity of natural enemies attacking different monoclonal pea aphid colonies were recorded in a series of assays throughout the period of pea aphid activity. 3. In the summer assay, there was a significant effect of clone on the numbers of aphidophagous hoverfly larvae and the total number of non-hoverfly natural enemies recruited. Clone also appeared to influence the attack rate suffered by the primary predator in the system, the hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, by Diplazon laetatorius, an ichneumonid parasitoid. Colonies were generally driven to extinction by hoverfly attack, resulting in the recording of low numbers of parasitoids and entomopathogens, suggesting intense intra-guild predation. 4. To further examine the influence of clonal variation on the recruitment of natural enemies, a second experiment was performed to monitor the temporal dynamics of community development. Colonies were destructively sampled every other day and the numbers of natural enemies attacking aphid colonies were recorded. These data demonstrated that clonal variation influenced the timing, abundance, and identity of natural enemies attacking aphid colonies. 5. Taken together, these data suggest that clonal variation may have a significant influence on the patterns of interactions between aphids and their natural enemies, and that such effects are likely to affect our understanding of the ecology and biological control of these insect herbivores.

Repeated challenge with prion disease: The risk of infection and impact on incubation period

Natural exposure to prion disease is likely to occur throughout successive challenges, yet most experiments focus on single large doses of infectious material. We analyze the results from an experiment in which rodents were exposed to multiple doses of feed contaminated with the scrapie agent. We formally define hypotheses for how the doses combine in terms of statistical models. The competing hypotheses are that only the total dose of infectivity is important (cumulative model), doses act independently, or a general alternative that interaction between successive doses occurs (to raise or lower the risk of infection). We provide sample size calculations to distinguish these hypotheses. In the experiment, a fixed total dose has a significantly reduced probability of causing infection if the material is presented as multiple challenges, and as the time between challenges lengthens. Incubation periods are shorter and less variable if all material is consumed on one occasion. We show that the probability of infection is inconsistent with the hypothesis that each dose acts as a cumulative or independent challenge. The incubation periods are inconsistent with the independence hypothesis. Thus, although a trend exists for the risk of infection with prion disease to increase with repeated doses, it does so to a lesser degree than is expected if challenges combine independently or in a cumulative manner.

Noncompetitive plasma biokinetics of deuterium-labeled natural and synthetic alpha-tocopherol in healthy men with an apoE4 genotype

Previous studies comparing the biokinetics of deuterated natural (RRR) and synthetic (all-rac) α-tocopherol (vitamin E) used a simultaneous ingestion or competitive uptake approach and reported relative bioavailability ratios close to 2:1, higher than the accepted biopotency ratio of 1.36:1. The aim of the current study was to compare the biokinetics of deuterated natural and synthetic vitamin E using a noncompetitive uptake model both before and after vitamin E supplementation in a distinct population. Healthy men (n = 10) carrying the apolipoprotein (apo)E4 genotype completed a randomized crossover study, comprised of two 4-wk treatments with 400 mg/d (RRR-α-tocopheryl and all-rac-α-tocopheryl acetate) with a 12-wk washout period between treatments. Before and after each treatment period, the subjects consumed a capsule containing 150 mg deuterated α-tocopheryl acetate in either the PRR or all-rac form depending on their treatment regimen. Blood was obtained up to 48 h after ingestion, and tocopherols analyzed by LC/MS. After deuterated all-rac administration, plasma deuterated tocopherol maximum concentrations and area under the concentration vs. time curves (AUC) were lower than those following RRR administration. The RRR:all-rac ratios determined from the deuterated biokinetic profiles (maximum concentration; C-max) and AUCs were 1.35:1 &PLUSMN; 0.17 and 1.33:1 &PLUSMN; 0.18, respectively. The 4-wk supplementation with either PRR or all-rac significantly increased plasma a-tocopherol concentrations (P < 0.001), but decreased the plasma response to newly absorbed deuterated RRR or all-rac α-tocopherol. Using a noncompetitive uptake approach, the relative bioavailability of natural to synthetic vitamin E in apoE4 males was close to the currently accepted biopotency ratio of 1.36:1.

Cigarette smokers differ in their handling of natural (RRR) and synthetic (all rac) alpha-tocopherol: a biokinetic study in apoE4 male subjects

We have compared the biokinetics of deuterated natural (RPR) and synthetic (all rac) alpha-tocopherol in male apoE4-carrying smokers and nonsmokers. In a randomized, crossover study subjects underwent two 4-week treatments (400 mg/day) with undeuterated RRR- and all rac-alpha-tocopheryl acetate around a 12-week washout. Before and after each supplementation period subjects underwent a biokinetic protocol (48 h) with 150 mg deuterated RRR- or all rac-alpha-tocopheryl acetate. During the biokinetic protocols, the elimination of endogenous plasma alpha-tocopherol was significantly faster in smokers (P < 0.05). However, smokers had a lower uptake of deuterated RRR than nonsmokers, but there was no difference in uptake of deuterated all rac. The supplementation regimes significantly raised plasma alpha-tocopherol (P < 0.001) with no differences in response between smokers and nonsmokers or between alpha-tocopherol forms. Smokers had significantly lower excretion of alpha-carboxyethyl-hydroxychroman than nonsmokers following supplementation (P < 0.05). Nonsmokers excreted more alpha-carboxyethyl-hydroxychroman following RRR than all rac; however, smokers did not differ in excretion between forms. At baseline, smokers had significantly lower ascorbate (P < 0.01) and higher F(2-)isoprostarres (P < 0.05). F-2-isoprostanes in smokers remained unchanged during the study, but increased in nonsmokers following alpha-tocopherol supplementation. These data suggest that apoE4-carrying smokers and nonsmokers differ in their handling of natural and synthetic alpha-tocopherol. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dietary supplementation with a natural carotenoid mixture decreases oxidative stress

Objective: To determine whether dietary supplementation with a natural carotenoid mixture counteracts the enhancement of oxidative stress induced by consumption of fish oil. Design: A randomised double-blind crossover dietary intervention. Setting: Hugh Sinclair Unit of Human Nutrition, School of Food Biosciences, The University of Reading, Whiteknights PO Box 226, Reading RG6 6AP, UK. Subjects and intervention: A total of 32 free-living healthy nonsmoking volunteers were recruited by posters and e-mails in The University of Reading. One volunteer withdrew during the study. The volunteers consumed a daily supplement comprising capsules containing fish oil (4 x 1 g) or fish oil (4 x 1 g) containing a natural carotenoid mixture (4 x 7.6 mg) for 3 weeks in a randomised crossover design separated by a 12 week washout phase. The carotenoid mixture provided a daily intake of beta-carotene (6.0 mg), alpha-carotene (1.4 mg), lycopene (4.5 mg), bixin (11.7 mg), lutein (4.4 mg) and paprika carotenoids (2.2 mg). Blood and urine samples were collected on days 0 and 21 of each dietary period. Results: The carotenoid mixture reduced the fall in ex vivo oxidative stability of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) induced by the fish oil (P = 0.045) and it reduced the extent of DNA damage assessed by the concentration of 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine in urine (P = 0.005). There was no effect on the oxidative stability of plasma ex vivo assessed by the oxygen radical absorbance capacity test. beta- Carotene, alpha-carotene, lycopene and lutein were increased in the plasma of subjects consuming the carotenoid mixture. Plasma triglyceride levels were reduced significantly more than the reduction for the fish oil control (P = 0.035), but total cholesterol, HDL and LDL levels were not significantly changed by the consumption of the carotenoid mixture. Conclusions: Consumption of the natural carotenoid mixture lowered the increase in oxidative stress induced by the fish oil as assessed by ex vivo oxidative stability of LDL and DNA degradation product in urine. The carotenoid mixture also enhanced the plasma triglyceride-lowering effect of the fish oil.

The effects of pre- and postnatal depression in fathers: a natural experiment comparing the effects of exposure to depression on offspring

Background: Depression in fathers in the postnatal period is associated with an increased risk of behavioural problems in their offspring, particularly for boys. The aim of this study was to examine for differential effects of depression in fathers on children's subsequent psychological functioning via a natural experiment comparing prenatal and postnatal exposure. Methods:In a longitudinal population cohort study (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)) we examined the associations between depression in fathers measured in the prenatal and postnatal period (measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale), and later behavioural/emotional and psychiatric problems in their children, assessed at ages 31/2 and 7 years. Results: Children whose fathers were depressed in both the prenatal and postnatal periods had the highest risks of subsequent psychopathology, measured by total problems at age 31/2 years (Odds Ratio 3.55; 95% confidence interval 2.07, 6.08) and psychiatric diagnosis at age 7 years (OR 2.54; 1.19, 5.41). Few differences emerged when prenatal and postnatal depression exposure were directly compared, but when compared to fathers who were not depressed, boys whose fathers had postnatal depression only had higher rates of conduct problems aged 31/2 years (OR 2.14; 1.22, 3.72) whereas sons of the prenatal group did not (OR 1.41; .75, 2.65). These associations changed little when controlling for maternal depression and other potential confounding factors. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that the increased risk of later conduct problems, seen particularly in the sons of depressed fathers, maybe partly mediated through environmental means. In addition, children whose fathers are more chronically depressed appear to be at a higher risk of emotional and behavioural problems. Efforts to identify the precise mechanisms by which transmission of risk may occur should be encouraged to enable the development of focused interventions to mitigate risks for young children.

The structure and evolution of the stratospheric vortex in response to natural forcings

The structure and evolution of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex is assessed during opposing phases of, primarily, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), but the 11 year solar cycle and winters following large volcanic eruptions are also examined. The analysis is performed by taking 2-D moments of vortex potential vorticity (PV) fields which allow the area and centroid of the vortex to be calculated throughout the ERA-40 reanalysis data set (1958–2002). Composites of these diagnostics for the different phases of the natural forcings are then considered. Statistically significant results are found regarding the structure and evolution of the vortex during, in particular, the ENSO and QBO phases. When compared with the more traditional zonal mean zonal wind diagnostic at 60°N, the moment-based diagnostics are far more robust and contain more information regarding the state of the vortex. The study details, for the first time, a comprehensive sequence of events which map the evolution of the vortex during each of the forcings throughout an extended winter period.

Exploring the interplay between natural decadal variability and anthropogenic climate change in summer rainfall over China. Part I: Observational evidence

Summer rainfall over China has experienced substantial variability on longer time scales during the last century, and the question remains whether this is due to natural, internal variability or is part of the emerging signal of anthropogenic climate change. Using the best available observations over China, the decadal variability and recent trends in summer rainfall are investigated with the emphasis on changes in the seasonal evolution and on the temporal characteristics of daily rainfall. The possible relationships with global warming are reassessed. Substantial decadal variability in summer rainfall has been confirmed during the period 1958–2008; this is not unique to this period but is also seen in the earlier decades of the twentieth century. Two dominant patterns of decadal variability have been identified that contribute substantially to the recent trend of southern flooding and northern drought. Natural decadal variability appears to dominate in general but in the cases of rainfall intensity and the frequency of rainfall days, particularly light rain days, then the dominant EOFs have a rather different character, being of one sign over most of China, and having principal components (PCs) that appear more trendlike. The increasing intensity of rainfall throughout China and the decrease in light rainfall days, particularly in the north, could at least partially be of anthropogenic origin, both global and regional, linked to increased greenhouse gases and increased aerosols.