Global biomass burning: a synthesis and review of Holocene paleofire records and their controls.

We synthesize existing sedimentary charcoal records to reconstruct Holocene fire history at regional, continental and global scales. The reconstructions are compared with the two potential controls of burning at these broad scales – changes in climate and human activities – to assess their relative importance on trends in biomass burning. Here we consider several hypotheses that have been advanced to explain the Holocene record of fire, including climate, human activities and synergies between the two. Our results suggest that 1) episodes of high fire activity were relatively common in the early Holocene and were consistent with climate changes despite low global temperatures and low levels of biomass burning globally; 2) there is little evidence from the paleofire record to support the Early Anthropocene Hypothesis of human modification of the global carbon cycle; 3) there was a nearly-global increase in fire activity from 3 to 2 ka that is difficult to explain with either climate or humans, but the widespread and synchronous nature of the increase suggests at least a partial climate forcing; and 4) burning during the past century generally decreased but was spatially variable; it declined sharply in many areas, but there were also large increases (e.g., Australia and parts of Europe). Our analysis does not exclude an important role for human activities on global biomass burning during the Holocene, but instead provides evidence for a pervasive influence of climate across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Civilian casualties – do we really care? The failure of the revolution in military affairs of non-lethal weapons in the U.S., Russia and Israel

Causing civilian casualties during military operations has become a much politicised topic in international relations since the Second World War. Since the last decade of the 20th century, different scholars and political analysts have claimed that human life is valued more and more among the general international community. This argument has led many researchers to assume that democratic culture and traditions, modern ethical and moral issues have created a desire for a world without war or, at least, a demand that contemporary armed conflicts, if unavoidable, at least have to be far less lethal forcing the military to seek new technologies that can minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage. Non-Lethal Weapons (NLW) – weapons that are intended to minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage – are based on the technology that, during the 1990s, was expected to revolutionise the conduct of warfare making it significantly less deadly. The rapid rise of interest in NLW, ignited by the American military twenty five years ago, sparked off an entirely new military, as well as an academic, discourse concerning their potential contribution to military success on the 21st century battlefields. It seems, however, that except for this debate, very little has been done within the military forces themselves. This research suggests that the roots of this situation are much deeper than the simple professional misconduct of the military establishment, or the poor political behaviour of political leaders, who had sent them to fight. Following the story of NLW in the U.S., Russia and Israel this research focuses on the political and cultural aspects that have been supposed to force the military organisations of these countries to adopt new technologies and operational and organisational concepts regarding NLW in an attempt to minimise enemy civilian casualties during their military operations. This research finds that while American, Russian and Israeli national characters are, undoubtedly, products of the unique historical experience of each one of these nations, all of three pay very little regard to foreigners’ lives. Moreover, while it is generally argued that the international political pressure is a crucial factor that leads to the significant reduction of harmed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure, the findings of this research suggest that the American, Russian and Israeli governments are well prepared and politically equipped to fend off international criticism. As the analyses of the American, Russian and Israeli cases reveal, the political-military leaderships of these countries have very little external or domestic reasons to minimise enemy civilian casualties through fundamental-revolutionary change in their conduct of war. In other words, this research finds that employment of NLW have failed because the political leadership asks the militaries to reduce the enemy civilian casualties to a politically acceptable level, rather than to the technologically possible minimum; as in the socio-cultural-political context of each country, support for the former appears to be significantly higher than for the latter.

National and sub-national assessments of soil organic carbon stocks and changes: The GEFSOC modelling system

Soil organic carbon (SOC) plays a vital role in ecosystem function, determining soil fertility, water holding capacity and susceptibility to land degradation. In addition, SOC is related to atmospheric CO, levels with soils having the potential for C release or sequestration, depending on land use, land management and climate. The United Nations Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol, and other United Nations Conventions to Combat Desertification and on Biodiversity all recognize the importance of SOC and point to the need for quantification of SOC stocks and changes. An understanding of SOC stocks and changes at the national and regional scale is necessary to further our understanding of the global C cycle, to assess the responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change and to aid policy makers in making land use/management decisions. Several studies have considered SOC stocks at the plot scale, but these are site specific and of limited value in making inferences about larger areas. Some studies have used empirical methods to estimate SOC stocks and changes at the regional scale, but such studies are limited in their ability to project future changes, and most have been carried out using temperate data sets. The computational method outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been used to estimate SOC stock changes at the regional scale in several studies, including a recent study considering five contrasting eco regions. This 'one step' approach fails to account for the dynamic manner in which SOC changes are likely to occur following changes in land use and land management. A dynamic modelling approach allows estimates to be made in a manner that accounts for the underlying processes leading to SOC change. Ecosystem models, designed for site scale applications can be linked to spatial databases, giving spatially explicit results that allow geographic areas of change in SOC stocks to be identified. Some studies have used variations on this approach to estimate SOC stock changes at the sub-national and national scale for areas of the USA and Europe and at the watershed scale for areas of Mexico and Cuba. However, a need remained for a national and regional scale, spatially explicit system that is generically applicable and can be applied to as wide a range of soil types, climates and land uses as possible. The Global Environment Facility Soil Organic Carbon (GEFSOC) Modelling System was developed in response to this need. The GEFSOC system allows estimates of SOC stocks and changes to be made for diverse conditions, providing essential information for countries wishing to take part in an emerging C market, and bringing us closer to an understanding of the future role of soils in the global C cycle. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Crystal structures of [PhLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2), [PhOLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2), and the mixed aggregate [PhLi center dot PhOLi center dot 2(-)-sparteine]

Crystal structure determination of adducts of sparteine and PhLi, (-)-sparteine and PhOLi and of sparteine and PhLi/PhOLi reveal a four-membered ring with two lithium centers, each capped by a (-)-sparteine ligand, as central motif of all structure. Quantum-chemical calculations show that the mixed aggregate [PhLi center dot PhOLi center dot 2(-)-sparteine] is energetically more favorable than the model system {1/2[PhLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2) + 1/2[PhOLi center dot(-)-sparteine](2)}.

The UK Department of National Heritage: a model for the development and integration of leisure policy in the new Europe?

Leisure is in the vanguard of a social and cultural revolution which is replacing the former East/West political bipolarity with a globalised economic system in which the new Europe has a central rôle. Within this revolution, leisure, including recreation, culture and tourism, is constructed as the epitome of successful capitalist development; the very legitimisation of the global transmogrification from a production to a consumption orientation. While acting as a direct encouragement to the political transformation in many eastern European states, it is uncertain how the issue of leisure policy is being handled, given its centrality to the new economic order. This paper therefore examines the experience of western Europe, considering in particular the degree to which the newly-created Department of National Heritage in the UK provides a potential model for leisure development and policy integration in the new Europe. Despite an official rhetoric of support and promotion of leisure activities, reflecting the growing economic significance of tourism and the positive relationship between leisure provision and regional economic development, the paper establishes that in the place of the traditional rôle of the state in promoting leisure interests, the introduction of the Department has signified a shift to the use of leisure to promote the Government's interests, particularly in regenerating citizen rights claims towards the market. While an institution such as the Department of National Heritage may have relevance to emerging states as a element in the maintenance of political hegemony, therefore, it is questionable how far it can be viewed as a promoter or protector of leisure as a signifier of a newly-won political, economic and cultural freedom throughout Europe.

Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.

Climate variability and human impact in South America during the last 2000 years: synthesis and perspectives from pollen records

An improved understanding of present-day climate variability and change relies on high-quality data sets from the past 2 millennia. Global efforts to model regional climate modes are in the process of being validated against, and integrated with, records of past vegetation change. For South America, however, the full potential of vegetation records for evaluating and improving climate models has hitherto not been sufficiently acknowledged due to an absence of information on the spatial and temporal coverage of study sites. This paper therefore serves as a guide to high-quality pollen records that capture environmental variability during the last 2 millennia. We identify 60 vegetation (pollen) records from across South America which satisfy geochronological requirements set out for climate modelling, and we discuss their sensitivity to the spatial signature of climate modes throughout the continent. Diverse patterns of vegetation response to climate change are observed, with more similar patterns of change in the lowlands and varying intensity and direction of responses in the highlands. Pollen records display local-scale responses to climate modes; thus, it is necessary to understand how vegetation–climate interactions might diverge under variable settings. We provide a qualitative translation from pollen metrics to climate variables. Additionally, pollen is an excellent indicator of human impact through time. We discuss evidence for human land use in pollen records and provide an overview considered useful for archaeological hypothesis testing and important in distinguishing natural from anthropogenically driven vegetation change. We stress the need for the palynological community to be more familiar with climate variability patterns to correctly attribute the potential causes of observed vegetation dynamics. This manuscript forms part of the wider LOng-Term multi-proxy climate REconstructions and Dynamics in South America – 2k initiative that provides the ideal framework for the integration of the various palaeoclimatic subdisciplines and palaeo-science, thereby jump-starting and fostering multidisciplinary research into environmental change on centennial and millennial timescales.

Assessing species’ habitat associations from occurrence records, standardised monitoring data and expert opinion: a test with British butterflies

Accurate knowledge of species’ habitat associations is important for conservation planning and policy. Assessing habitat associations is a vital precursor to selecting appropriate indicator species for prioritising sites for conservation or assessing trends in habitat quality. However, much existing knowledge is based on qualitative expert opinion or local scale studies, and may not remain accurate across different spatial scales or geographic locations. Data from biological recording schemes have the potential to provide objective measures of habitat association, with the ability to account for spatial variation. We used data on 50 British butterfly species as a test case to investigate the correspondence of data-derived measures of habitat association with expert opinion, from two different butterfly recording schemes. One scheme collected large quantities of occurrence data (c. 3 million records) and the other, lower quantities of standardised monitoring data (c. 1400 sites). We used general linear mixed effects models to derive scores of association with broad-leaf woodland for both datasets and compared them with scores canvassed from experts. Scores derived from occurrence and abundance data both showed strongly positive correlations with expert opinion. However, only for occurrence data did these fell within the range of correlations between experts. Data-derived scores showed regional spatial variation in the strength of butterfly associations with broad-leaf woodland, with a significant latitudinal trend in 26% of species. Sub-sampling of the data suggested a mean sample size of 5000 occurrence records per species to gain an accurate estimation of habitat association, although habitat specialists are likely to be readily detected using several hundred records. Occurrence data from recording schemes can thus provide easily obtained, objective, quantitative measures of habitat association.

Benchmarking and setting intervention targets for key cell count parameters

Herd Companion uses routine milk‐recording records to generate twelve‐month rolling averages that indicate performance trends. This article looks at Herd Somatic Cell Count (SCC) and four other SCC‐related parameters from 252 National Milk Records (NMR) recorded herds to assess how each parameter correlates with the Herd SCC. The analysis provides evidence for the importance of targeting individual cows with high SCC recordings (>200,000 cells/ml and >500,000 cells/ml) and/or individual cows with repeatedly high SCC recordings (chronic high SCC) and/or cows that begin lactation with a high SCC recording (dry period infection) in order to achieve bulk milk Herd SCC below 200,000 cells/ml.