Institutional sustainability: at what price? UNDP and the new cost-sharing model in Brazil

By the turn of the twenty-first century, UNDP had embraced a new form of funding based on ‘cost-sharing’, with this source accounting for 51 per cent of the organisation’s total expenditure worldwide in 2000. Unlike the traditional donor - recipient relationship so common with development projects, the new cost-sharing modality has created a situation whereby UNDP local offices become ‘subcontractors’ and agencies of the recipient countries become ‘clients’. This paper explores this transition in the context of Brazil, focusing on how the new modality may have compromised UNDP’s ability to promote Sustainable Human Development, as established in its mandate. The great enthusiasm for this modality within the UN system and its potential application to other developing countries increase the importance of a systematic assessment of its impact and developmental consequences.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Differential effects of temperature on fruit development and bean quality of contrasting genotypes of cacao (Theobroma cacao)

The effects of temperature and light integral on fruit growth and development of five cacao genotypes (Amelonado, AMAZ 15/15, SCA 6, SPEC 54/1 and UF 676) were studied in semi-controlled environment glasshouses in which the thermal regimes of cacao-growing regions of Brazil, Ghana and Malaysia were simulated. Fruit losses because of physiological will (cherelle will) were greater at higher temperatures and also differed significantly between genotypes, reflecting genetic differences in competition for assimilates between vegetative and reproductive components. Short-term measurements of fruit growth indicated faster growth rates at higher temperatures. In addition, a significant negative linear relationship between temperature and development time was observed. There was an effect of genotype on this relationship, such that time to fruit maturation at a given temperature was greatest for the clone UF 676 and least for AMAZ 15/15. Analysis of base temperatures, derived from these relationships indicated genetic variability in sensitivity of cacao fruit growth to temperature (base temperatures ranged from 7.5 degrees C for Amelonado and AMAZ 15/15 to 12.9 for SPEC 54/1). Final fruit size was a positive function of beam number for all genotypes and a positive function of light integral for Amelonado in the Malaysia simulated environment (where the temperature was almost constant). In simulated environments where temperature was the main variable (Brazil and Ghana) increases in temperature resulted in a significant decrease in final pod size for one genotype (Amelonado) in Brazil and for two genotypes (SPEC 54/1 and UF 676) in Ghana. It was hypothesised that pod growth duration (mediated by temperature), assimilation and beam number are all determinants of final pod size but that under specific conditions one of these factors may override the others. There was variability between genotypes in the response of beam size and beam lipid content to temperature. Negative relationships between temperature and bean size were found for Amelonado and UF 676. Lipid concentration was a curvilinear function of temperature for Amelonado and UF 676, with optimal temperatures of 23 degrees C and 24 degrees C, respectively. The variability observed here of different cacao genotypes to temperature highlights the need and opportunities for appropriate matching of planting material with local environments.

Analysis of precipitation climatology simulated by high resolution coupled global models over the South America

The results of coupled high resolution global models (CGCMs) over South America are discussed. HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 simulations, with horizontal resolution of ~90 and 135 km, respectively, are compared. Precipitation estimations from CMAP (Climate Prediction Center—Merged Analysis of Precipitation), CPC (Climate Prediction Center) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project) are used for validation. HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 simulated seasonal mean precipitation spatial patterns similar to the CMAP. The positioning and migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone and of the Pacific and Atlantic subtropical highs are correctly simulated by the models. In HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2, the intensity and locations of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone are in agreement with the observed dataset. The simulated annual cycles are in phase with estimations of rainfall for most of the six regions considered. An important result is that HiGEM1.2 and HadGEM1.2 eliminate a common problem of coarse resolution CGCMs, which is the simulation of a semiannual cycle of precipitation due to the semiannual solar forcing. Comparatively, the use of high resolution in HiGEM1.2 reduces the dry biases in the central part of Brazil during austral winter and spring and in most part of the year over an oceanic box in eastern Uruguay.

Observations of the eruption of the Sarychev volcano and simulations using the HadGEM2 climate model

In June 2009 the Sarychev volcano located in the Kuril Islands to the northeast of Japan erupted explosively, injecting ash and an estimated 1.2 ± 0.2 Tg of sulfur dioxide into the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, making it arguably one of the 10 largest stratospheric injections in the last 50 years. During the period immediately after the eruption, we show that the sulfur dioxide (SO2) cloud was clearly detected by retrievals developed for the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument and that the resultant stratospheric sulfate aerosol was detected by the Optical Spectrograph and Infrared Imaging System (OSIRIS) limb sounder and CALIPSO lidar. Additional surface‐based instrumentation allows assessment of the impact of the eruption on the stratospheric aerosol optical depth. We use a nudged version of the HadGEM2 climate model to investigate how well this state‐of‐the‐science climate model can replicate the distributions of SO2 and sulfate aerosol. The model simulations and OSIRIS measurements suggest that in the Northern Hemisphere the stratospheric aerosol optical depth was enhanced by around a factor of 3 (0.01 at 550 nm), with resultant impacts upon the radiation budget. The simulations indicate that, in the Northern Hemisphere for July 2009, the magnitude of the mean radiative impact from the volcanic aerosols is more than 60% of the direct radiative forcing of all anthropogenic aerosols put together. While the cooling induced by the eruption will likely not be detectable in the observational record, the combination of modeling and measurements would provide an ideal framework for simulating future larger volcanic eruptions.

Classification of seed storage behaviour of 67 Amazonian tree species

Information was collated on the seed storage behaviour of 67 tree species native to the Amazon rainforest of Brazil; 38 appeared to show orthodox, 23 recalcitrant and six intermediate seed storage behaviour. A double-criteria key based on thousand-seed weight and seed moisture content at shedding to estimate likely seed storage behaviour, developed previously, showed good agreement with the above classifications. The key can aid seed storage behaviour identification considerably.