Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

A grounded investigation of Chinese employees' psychological capital

Purpose – This paper explores the “Western” concept of psychological capital in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and highlights critical areas of divergence and notable dimensions of similarity. Design/methodology/approach – This is an empirical study conducted in a wide range of Chinese organisational forms, employing an inductive approach based on critical incident technique. Findings – This research showed that the concept of psychological capital appears to have a degree of applicability and salience in China. A series of dimensions common in Western organisations were found in our research, including Optimism, Creativity, Resiliency, Self-confidence, Forgiveness and Gratitude, Courage and Ambition (Hope). These were found to be common types of psychological capital both in China and in the West. However, the dimensions of Courtesy and Humility (Qian-gong-you-li in Chinese), Self-possession and Sincerity fell into the “different” category. Originality/value – This paper is a first attempt to examine psychological capital in a range of organisational forms and industrial sectors in China using a grounded theory approach. It not only reports various dimensions of Chinese psychological capital, some unique to this research, but also compares and contrasts these dimensions between China and the West, highlighting further research opportunities.

A battle of elephants: (I)legitimate ethical voices?

In this paper, we aim to distil myriad stakeholder voices through a Foucaudian theoretical apparatus in the establishment of ethical stakeholder voices amidst a takeover of a Ghanaian National Bank with ownership control by the state National Pension Fund and Insurance Company. Resonating with Foucault’s position that, the prove and an actual practice of ethical principles despite risk is non-existent within a democracy, this paper reveals how stakeholders in a takeover further their own interest to the neglect of the very germane societal expectation of a salient stakeholder role. We further fill an existing gap within the stakeholder literature that posit of stakeholders as always possessing the right and ethical voices. We conclude that, despite Foucault’s last lecture of The Courage of Truth: The Government of the Self and others having proven of a robust apparatus in distilling ethical voices from non-ethical within the realm of a democratic field, its idealist nature demands a counterfactual position.

Behavioural responses of the seven-spot ladybird Coccinella septempunctata to plant headspace chemicals collected from four crop Brassicas and Arabidopsis thaliana, infested with Myzus persicae

1 Insects using olfactory stimuli to forage for prey/hosts are proposed to encounter a ‘reliability–detectability problem’, where the usability of a stimulus depends on its reliability as an indicator of herbivore presence and its detectability. 2 We investigated this theory using the responses of female seven-spot ladybirds Coccinella septempunctata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) to plant headspace chemicals collected from the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae and four commercially available Brassica cultivars; Brassica rapa L. cultivar ‘turnip purple top’, Brassica juncea L. cultivar ‘red giant mustard’, Brassica napus L. cultivar ‘Apex’, Brassica napus L. cultivar ‘Courage’ and Arabidopsis thaliana. For each cultivar/species, responses to plants that were undamaged, previously infested by M. persicae and infested with M. persicae, were investigated using dual-choice Petri dish bioassays and circular arenas. 3 There was no evidence that ladybirds responded to headspace chemicals from aphids alone. Ladybirds significantly preferred headspace chemicals from B. napus cv. Apex that were undamaged compared with those from plants infested with aphids. For the other four species/cultivars, there was a consistent trend of the predators being recorded more often in the half of the Petri dish containing plant headspace chemicals from previously damaged and infested plants compared with those from undamaged ones. Furthermore, the mean distance ladybirds walked to reach aphid-infested A. thaliana was significantly shorter than to reach undamaged plants. These results suggest that aphid-induced plant chemicals could act as an arrestment or possibly an attractant stimulus to C. septempunctata. However, it is also possible that C. septempunctata could have been responding to aphid products, such as honeydew, transferred to the previously damaged and infested plants. 4 The results provide evidence to support the ‘reliability–detectability’ theory and suggest that the effectiveness of C. septempunctata as a natural enemy of aphids may be strongly affected by which species and cultivar of Brassica are being grown.

Foraging strategies of natural enemies of the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae

The foraging strategies of two natural enemies of the peach-potato aphid Myzus persicae: the seven-spot ladybird Coccinella septempunctata and the parasitoid wasp Diaeretiella rapae, were investigated. Specifically the roles of plant semiochemicals in the location of plants infested with M. persicae by these natural enemies were examined. I investigated the olfactory responses of female C. septempunctata to volatiles collected from M. persicae and four Brassica cultivars; Brassica rapa, B. juncea, B. napus cultivar ‘Apex’ and B. napus cultivar ‘Courage’ and wild-type Arabidopsis thaliana that were: undamaged, previously infested by M. persicae and infested with M. persicae. C. septempunctata showed no attraction to volatiles from M. persicae alone. C. septempunctata significantly changed its searching behaviour in response to plant volatiles from B. rapa, B. napus cv. ‘Apex’ and Arabidopsis infested with M. persicae. C. septempunctata was also found to display a significant turning bias when foraging on a branching horizontal wire stem. A model was developed to investigate how turning biases affect the foraging efficiency of C. septempunctata in dichotomous branched environments. Simulations using this model indicated that turning biases could potentially increase searching efficiency. D. rapae showed a significant preference for volatiles from M. persicae infested wild-type Arabidopsis but no preference to volatiles from M. persicae alone or M. persicae honeydew. Volatile emissions by Arabidopsis were shown to be localised to the area of aphid-infestation rather than systemic. Using gas chromatography plants infested with M. persicae were shown to emit a quantitatively different volatile blend than undamaged plants. In experiments with jasmonate mutants of Arabidopsis the jasmonate (octadecanoid) wound response pathway was implicated as being important for the production of M. persicae induced volatiles, attractive to D. rapae. Other wound response pathways were also found to be involved in the production of the full blend of M. persicae induced volatiles.