Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Diagnosis of variability and trends in a global precipitation dataset using a physically motivated statistical model

A physically motivated statistical model is used to diagnose variability and trends in wintertime ( October - March) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) pentad (5-day mean) precipitation. Quasi-geostrophic theory suggests that extratropical precipitation amounts should depend multiplicatively on the pressure gradient, saturation specific humidity, and the meridional temperature gradient. This physical insight has been used to guide the development of a suitable statistical model for precipitation using a mixture of generalized linear models: a logistic model for the binary occurrence of precipitation and a Gamma distribution model for the wet day precipitation amount. The statistical model allows for the investigation of the role of each factor in determining variations and long-term trends. Saturation specific humidity q(s) has a generally negative effect on global precipitation occurrence and with the tropical wet pentad precipitation amount, but has a positive relationship with the pentad precipitation amount at mid- and high latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation, a proxy for the meridional temperature gradient, is also found to have a statistically significant positive effect on precipitation over much of the Atlantic region. Residual time trends in wet pentad precipitation are extremely sensitive to the choice of the wet pentad threshold because of increasing trends in low-amplitude precipitation pentads; too low a choice of threshold can lead to a spurious decreasing trend in wet pentad precipitation amounts. However, for not too small thresholds, it is found that the meridional temperature gradient is an important factor for explaining part of the long-term trend in Atlantic precipitation.

Cloacibacterium normanense gen. nov., sp nov., a novel bacterium in the family Flavobacteriaceae isolated from municipal wastewater

Phenotypic and phylogenetic studies were performed on three isolates of an unknown Gram-negative, facultatively anaerobic, non-motile, yellow-pigmented, rod-shaped organism isolated from raw sewage. 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis indicated that these strains were members of the Bergeyella-Chryseobacterium-Riemerella branch of the family Flavobacteriaceae. The unknown bacterium was readily distinguished from reference strains by 16S rRNA gene sequencing and biochemical tests. The organism contained menaquinone MK-6 as the predominant respiratory quinone and had a DNA G + C content of 31 mol%. A most probable number-PCR approach was developed to detect, and estimate the numbers of, this organism. Untreated wastewater from one plant yielded an estimated count of 1.4 x 10(5) cells ml(-1), and untreated wastewater from a second plant yielded an estimated count of 1.4 x 10(4) cells ml(-1). Signal was not detected from treated effluent or from human stool specimens. On the basis of the results of the study presented, it is proposed that the unknown bacterium be classified in a novel genus Cloacibacterium, as Cloacibacterium normanense gen. nov., sp. nov., which is also the type species. The type strain of Cloacibacterium normanense is strain NRS1(T) (=CCUG 46293(T)=CIP 108613(T) =ATCC BAA-825(T) = DSM 15886(T)).

Mothers' attributions following their child's diagnosis of autistic spectrum disorder: exploring links with maternal levels of stress, depression and expectations about their child's future

Although the impact of autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) on the family is well recognized, the way mothers attempt to make sense of the diagnosis is largely unexplored. However, in other disabilities, attributions have been shown to predict a variety of outcomes including maternal wellbeing and engagement in treatment. Using Weiner's (198S) three-dimensional model, 16 mothers were interviewed to examine the nature and impact of their beliefs about their child's ASD using semi-structured interviews and measures of depression, parenting stress and expectations for their child's future. The findings suggested that mothers made a diverse and complex range of attributions that were consistent with Weiner's dimensions of locus of cause, stability and controllability. The nature of their attributions reflected particular difficulties associated with ASDs, such as uncertainties regarding cause and prognosis. Taking account of mothers' search for meaning will better enable professionals to support families following diagnosis.