Use and abuse of mathematical models: an illustration from the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic in the United Kingdom

Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is a major threat, not only to countries whose economies rely on agricultural exports, but also to industrialised countries that maintain a healthy domestic livestock industry by eliminating major infectious diseases from their livestock populations. Traditional methods of controlling diseases such as FMD require the rapid detection and slaughter of infected animals, and any susceptible animals with which they may have been in contact, either directly or indirectly. During the 2001 epidemic of FMD in the United Kingdom (UK), this approach was supplemented by a culling policy driven by unvalidated predictive models. The epidemic and its control resulted in the death of approximately ten million animals, public disgust with the magnitude of the slaughter, and political resolve to adopt alternative options, notably including vaccination, to control any future epidemics. The UK experience provides a salutary warning of how models can be abused in the interests of scientific opportunism.

Risk of foot and mouth disease associated with proximity in space and time to infected premises and the implications for control policy during the 2001 epidemic in Cumbria

An analysis was made that calculated the risk of disease for premises in the most heavily affected parts of the county of Cumbria during the foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in the UK in 2001. In over half the cases the occurrence of the disease was not directly attributable to a recently infected premises being located within 1.5 km. Premises more than 1.5 km from recently infected premises faced sufficiently high infection risks that culling within a 1.5 km radius of the infected premises alone could not have prevented the progress of the epidemic. A comparison of the final outcome in two areas of the county, south Penrith and north Cumbria, indicated that focusing on controlling the potential spread of the disease over short distances by culling premises contiguous to infected premises, while the disease continued to spread over longer distances, may have resulted in excessive numbers of premises being culled. Even though the contiguous cull in south Penrith appeared to have resulted in a smaller proportion of premises becoming infected, the overall proportion of premises culled was considerably greater than in north Cumbria, where, because of staff and resource limitations, a smaller proportion of premises contiguous to infected premises was culled

Factors required for the uridylylation of the foot-and-mouth disease virus 3B1, 3B2, and 3B3 peptides by the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (3D(pol)) in vitro

The 5' terminus of picornavirus genomic RNA is covalently linked to the virus-encoded peptide 313 (VTg). Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is unique in encoding and using 3 distinct forms of this peptide. These peptides each act as primers for RNA synthesis by the virus-encoded RNA polymerase 3D(pol). To act as the primer for positive-strand RNA synthesis, the 3B peptides have to be uridylylated to form VPgpU(pU). For certain picornaviruses, it has been shown that this reaction is achieved by the 3D(pol) in the presence of the 3CD precursor plus an internal RNA sequence termed a cis-acting replication element (cre). The FMDV ere has been identified previously to be within the 5' untranslated region, whereas all other picornavirus cre structures are within the viral coding region. The requirements for the in vitro uridylylation of each of the FMDV 313 peptides has now been determined, and the role of the FMDV ere (also known as the 3B-uridylylation site, or bus) in this reaction has been analyzed. The poly(A) tail does not act as a significant template for FMDV 3B uridylylation.

Efficient production of foot-and-mouth disease virus empty capsids in insect cells following down regulation of 3C protease activity

Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) is a significant economically and distributed globally pathogen of Artiodactyla. Current vaccines are chemically inactivated whole virus particles that require large-scale virus growth in strict bio-containment with the associated risks of accidental release or incomplete inactivation. Non-infectious empty capsids are structural mimics of authentic particles with no associated risk and constitute an alternate vaccine candidate. Capsids self-assemble from the processed virus structural proteins, VP0, VP3 and VP1, which are released from the structural protein precursor P1-2A by the action of the virus-encoded 3C protease. To date recombinant empty capsid assembly has been limited by poor expression levels, restricting the development of empty capsids as a viable vaccine. Here expression of the FMDV structural protein precursor P1-2A in insect cells is shown to be efficient but linkage of the cognate 3C protease to the C-terminus reduces expression significantly. Inactivation of the 3C enzyme in a P1-2A-3C cassette allows expression and intermediate levels of 3C activity resulted in efficient processing of the P1-2A precursor into the structural proteins which assembled into empty capsids. Expression was independent of the insect host cell background and leads to capsids that are recognised as authentic by a range of anti-FMDV bovine sera suggesting their feasibility as an alternate vaccine.

Perception of thickness, mouth-coating and mouth-drying of dairy beverages by younger and older volunteer

Sensory perception has been found to change during ageing. The perception of mouth feel by older adults, and the role of ageing on the sensory perception of texture attributes is uncertain. . This study investigated perception of the textural attributes of thickness, mouth-coating and mouth-drying, in the context of dairy beverages, by older and younger adults. Just noticeable differences (JND) of a starch thickener and for cream concentration within milk were established for thickness and mouth-coating perception, finding no age-related differences between participant groups. Mouth-drying was assessed through the directional paired comparison of a mouth-drying milk beverage to a skimmed milk sample. The older adults were found to be more sensitive to mouth-drying (p=0.03) than the younger adults. This study found no age-related decline in texture perception with older adults finding perception of some attributes such as mouth-drying enhanced by ageing.

Drivers of in-group and out-of-group electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM)

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to address a recent call for additional research on electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM). In response to this call, this study draws on the social network paradigm and the uses and gratification theory (UGT) to propose and empirically test a conceptual framework of key drivers of two types of eWOM, namely in-group and out-of-group. Design/methodology/approach – The proposed model, which examines the impact of usage motivations on eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group, is tested in a sample of 302 internet users in Portugal. Findings – Results from the survey show that the different drivers (i.e. mood-enhancement, escapism, experiential learning and social interaction) vary in terms of their impact on the two different types of eWOM. Surprisingly, while results show a positive relationship between experiential learning and eWOM out-of-group, no relationship is found between experiential learning and eWOM in-group. Research limitations/implications – This is the first study investigating the drivers of both eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group. Additional research in this area will contribute to the development of a general theory of eWOM. Practical implications – By understanding the drivers of different eWOM types, this study provides guidance to marketing managers on how to allocate resources more efficiently in order to achieve the company's strategic objectives. Originality/value – No published study has investigated the determinants of these two types of eWOM. This is the first study offering empirical considerations of how the various drivers differentially impact eWOM in-group and eWOM out-of-group.

Potential sources of mouth drying in beverages fortified with dairy proteins: a comparison of casein and whey-rich ingredients

Oral nutritional supplement drinks (ONS) are beverages high in dairy proteins that are prescribed to individuals at risk of malnutrition. Consumption of ONS is poor in elderly care facilities, with patients commenting that the sensory attributes of these drinks reduce their enjoyment and willingness to consume. Mouth drying is an attribute of ONS found to build with repeated consumption, which may further limit liking of these products. This study investigated the sources of drying sensations by sequential profiling, with a trained sensory panel rating a range of model milk systems and ONS over repeated sips and during after-effects. Sequential profiling found that fortification of milk with both caseinate and whey protein concentrate significantly increased the perception of mouth drying over repeated consumption, increasing by between 35 and 85% over consumption of 40mL. Enrichment of ONS with either whey protein concentrate or milk protein concentrate to a total protein content of 8.7% (wt/wt) resulted in whey and casein levels of 4.3:4.4% and 1.7:7.0% respectively. The product higher in whey protein was substantially more mouth drying, implying that whey proteins may be the most important contributor to mouth drying in ONS. However, efforts to mask mouth drying of protein-fortified milk by increasing sweetness or fat level were unsuccessful at the levels tested. Increasing the viscosity of protein-fortified milk led to a small but significant reduction in mouth drying. However, this approach was not successful when tested within complete ONS. Further analysis is required into the mechanism of protein-derived mouth drying to mask negative sensations and improve the enjoyment and consumption of protein-rich ONS.

Drivers of in‐group and out‐of‐group electronic word‐of‐mouth (eWOM)

Purpose– The purpose of this study is to address a recent call for additional research on electronic word‐of‐mouth (eWOM). In response to this call, this study draws on the social network paradigm and the uses and gratification theory (UGT) to propose and empirically test a conceptual framework of key drivers of two types of eWOM, namely in‐group and out‐of‐group. Design/methodology/approach– The proposed model, which examines the impact of usage motivations on eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group, is tested in a sample of 302 internet users in Portugal. Findings– Results from the survey show that the different drivers (i.e. mood‐enhancement, escapism, experiential learning and social interaction) vary in terms of their impact on the two different types of eWOM. Surprisingly, while results show a positive relationship between experiential learning and eWOM out‐of‐group, no relationship is found between experiential learning and eWOM in‐group. Research limitations/implications– This is the first study investigating the drivers of both eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group. Additional research in this area will contribute to the development of a general theory of eWOM. Practical implications– By understanding the drivers of different eWOM types, this study provides guidance to marketing managers on how to allocate resources more efficiently in order to achieve the company's strategic objectives. Originality/value– No published study has investigated the determinants of these two types of eWOM. This is the first study offering empirical considerations of how the various drivers differentially impact eWOM in‐group and eWOM out‐of‐group.