Development and validation of the Morphing Fear Questionnaire (MFQ)

Morphing fears (also called transformation obsessions) involve concerns that a person may become contaminated by and acquire undesirable characteristics of others. These symptoms are found in patients with OCD and are thought to be related to mental contamination. Given the high levels of distress and interference morphing fears can cause, a reliable and valid assessment measure is needed. This article describes the development and evaluation of the Morphing Fear Questionnaire (MFQ), a 13-item measure designed to assess for the presence and severity of morphing fears. A sample of 900 participants took part in the research. Of these, 140 reported having a current diagnosis of OCD (SR-OCD) and 760 reported never having had OCD (N-OCD; of whom 24 reported a diagnosis of an anxiety disorder and 23 reported a diagnosis of depression). Factor structure, reliability, and construct and criterion related validity were investigated. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses supported a one-factor structure replicable across the N-OCD and SR-OCD group. The MFQ was found to have high internal consistency and good temporal stability, and showed significantly greater associations with convergent measures (assessing obsessive-compulsive symptoms, mental contamination, thought-action fusion and magical thinking) than with divergent measures (assessing depression and anxiety). Moreover, the MFQ successfully discriminated between the SR-OCD sample and the N-OCD group, anxiety disorder sample, and depression sample. These findings suggest that the MFQ has sound psychometric properties and that it can be used to assess morphing fear. Clinical implications are discussed.

Vision of the body and the differentiation of perceived body side in touch

Although tactile representations of the two body sides are initially segregated into opposite hemispheres of the brain, behavioural interactions between body sides exist and can be revealed under conditions of tactile double simultaneous stimulation (DSS) at the hands. Here we examined to what extent vision can affect body side segregation in touch. To this aim, we changed hand-related visual input while participants performed a go/no-go task to detect a tactile stimulus delivered to one target finger (e.g., right index), stimulated alone or with a concurrent non-target finger either on the same hand (e.g., right middle finger) or on the other hand (e.g., left index finger = homologous; left middle finger = non-homologous). Across experiments, the two hands were visible or occluded from view (Experiment 1), images of the two hands were either merged using a morphing technique (Experiment 2), or were shown in a compatible vs incompatible position with respect to the actual posture (Experiment 3). Overall, the results showed reliable interference effects of DSS, as compared to target-only stimulation. This interference varied as a function of which non-target finger was stimulated, and emerged both within and between hands. These results imply that the competition between tactile events is not clearly segregated across body sides. Crucially, non-informative vision of the hand affected overall tactile performance only when a visual/proprioceptive conflict was present, while neither congruent nor morphed hand vision affected tactile DSS interference. This suggests that DSS operates at a tactile processing stage in which interactions between body sides can occur regardless of the available visual input from the body.

Investigation of discrepancies in satellite rainfall estimates over Ethiopia

Tropical Applications of Meteorology Using Satellite and Ground-Based Observations (TAMSAT) rainfall estimates are used extensively across Africa for operational rainfall monitoring and food security applications; thus, regional evaluations of TAMSAT are essential to ensure its reliability. This study assesses the performance of TAMSAT rainfall estimates, along with the African Rainfall Climatology (ARC), version 2; the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 product; and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH), against a dense rain gauge network over a mountainous region of Ethiopia. Overall, TAMSAT exhibits good skill in detecting rainy events but underestimates rainfall amount, while ARC underestimates both rainfall amount and rainy event frequency. Meanwhile, TRMM consistently performs best in detecting rainy events and capturing the mean rainfall and seasonal variability, while CMORPH tends to overdetect rainy events. Moreover, the mean difference in daily rainfall between the products and rain gauges shows increasing underestimation with increasing elevation. However, the distribution in satellite–gauge differences demon- strates that although 75% of retrievals underestimate rainfall, up to 25% overestimate rainfall over all eleva- tions. Case studies using high-resolution simulations suggest underestimation in the satellite algorithms is likely due to shallow convection with warm cloud-top temperatures in addition to beam-filling effects in microwave- based retrievals from localized convective cells. The overestimation by IR-based algorithms is attributed to nonraining cirrus with cold cloud-top temperatures. These results stress the importance of understanding re- gional precipitation systems causing uncertainties in satellite rainfall estimates with a view toward using this knowledge to improve rainfall algorithms.

The impact of uncertain precipitation data on insurance loss estimates using a flood catastrophe model

Catastrophe risk models used by the insurance industry are likely subject to significant uncertainty, but due to their proprietary nature and strict licensing conditions they are not available for experimentation. In addition, even if such experiments were conducted, these would not be repeatable by other researchers because commercial confidentiality issues prevent the details of proprietary catastrophe model structures from being described in public domain documents. However, such experimentation is urgently required to improve decision making in both insurance and reinsurance markets. In this paper we therefore construct our own catastrophe risk model for flooding in Dublin, Ireland, in order to assess the impact of typical precipitation data uncertainty on loss predictions. As we consider only a city region rather than a whole territory and have access to detailed data and computing resources typically unavailable to industry modellers, our model is significantly more detailed than most commercial products. The model consists of four components, a stochastic rainfall module, a hydrological and hydraulic flood hazard module, a vulnerability module, and a financial loss module. Using these we undertake a series of simulations to test the impact of driving the stochastic event generator with four different rainfall data sets: ground gauge data, gauge-corrected rainfall radar, meteorological reanalysis data (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis-Interim; ERA-Interim) and a satellite rainfall product (The Climate Prediction Center morphing method; CMORPH). Catastrophe models are unusual because they use the upper three components of the modelling chain to generate a large synthetic database of unobserved and severe loss-driving events for which estimated losses are calculated. We find the loss estimates to be more sensitive to uncertainties propagated from the driving precipitation data sets than to other uncertainties in the hazard and vulnerability modules, suggesting that the range of uncertainty within catastrophe model structures may be greater than commonly believed.

The new Hollywood, 1981–1999: special/visual effects

The emergence and development of digital imaging technologies and their impact on mainstream filmmaking is perhaps the most familiar special effects narrative associated with the years 1981-1999. This is in part because some of the questions raised by the rise of the digital still concern us now, but also because key milestone films showcasing advancements in digital imaging technologies appear in this period, including Tron (1982) and its computer generated image elements, the digital morphing in The Abyss (1989) and Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991), computer animation in Jurassic Park (1993) and Toy Story (1995), digital extras in Titanic (1997), and ‘bullet time’ in The Matrix (1999). As a result it is tempting to characterize 1981-1999 as a ‘transitional period’ in which digital imaging processes grow in prominence and technical sophistication, and what we might call ‘analogue’ special effects processes correspondingly become less common. But such a narrative risks eliding the other practices that also shape effects sequences in this period. Indeed, the 1980s and 1990s are striking for the diverse range of effects practices in evidence in both big budget films and lower budget productions, and for the extent to which analogue practices persist independently of or alongside digital effects work in a range of production and genre contexts. The chapter seeks to document and celebrate this diversity and plurality, this sustaining of earlier traditions of effects practice alongside newer processes, this experimentation with materials and technologies old and new in the service of aesthetic aspirations alongside budgetary and technical constraints. The common characterization of the period as a series of rapid transformations in production workflows, practices and technologies will be interrogated in relation to the persistence of certain key figures as Douglas Trumbull, John Dykstra, and James Cameron, but also through a consideration of the contexts for and influences on creative decision-making. Comparative analyses of the processes used to articulate bodies, space and scale in effects sequences drawn from different generic sites of special effects work, including science fiction, fantasy, and horror, will provide a further frame for the chapter’s mapping of the commonalities and specificities, continuities and variations in effects practices across the period. In the process, the chapter seeks to reclaim analogue processes’ contribution both to moments of explicit spectacle, and to diegetic verisimilitude, in the decades most often associated with the digital’s ‘arrival’.