Introduction and the problems of weather interpretation

Numerical forecasts of the atmosphere based on the fundamental dynamical and thermodynamical equations have now been carried for almost 30 years. The very first models which were used were drastic simplifications of the governing equations and permitting only the prediction of the geostrophic wind in the middle of the troposphere based on the conservation of absolute vorticity. Since then we have seen a remarkable development in models predicting the large-scale synoptic flow. Verification carried out at NMC Washington indicates an improvement of about 40% in 24h forecasts for the 500mb geopotential since the end of the 1950’s. The most advanced models of today use the equations of motion in their more original form (i.e. primitive equations) which are better suited to predicting the atmosphere at low latitudes as well as small scale systems. The model which we have developed at the Centre, for instance, will be able to predict weather systems from a scale of 500-1000 km and a vertical extension of a few hundred millibars up to global weather systems extending through the whole depth of the atmosphere. With a grid resolution of 1.5 and 15 vertical levels and covering the whole globe it is possible to describe rather accurately the thermodynamical processes associated with cyclone development. It is further possible to incorporate sub-grid-scale processes such as radiation, exchange of sensible heat, release of latent heat etc. in order to predict the development of new weather systems and the decay of old ones. Later in this introduction I will exemplify this by showing some results of forecasts by the Centre’s model.

Forecast uncertainty—ex Ante and ex Post: U.S. inflation and output growth

Survey respondents who make point predictions and histogram forecasts of macro-variables reveal both how uncertain they believe the future to be, ex ante, as well as their ex post performance. Macroeconomic forecasters tend to be overconfident at horizons of a year or more, but overestimate (i.e., are underconfident regarding) the uncertainty surrounding their predictions at short horizons. Ex ante uncertainty remains at a high level compared to the ex post measure as the forecast horizon shortens. There is little evidence of a link between individuals’ ex post forecast accuracy and their ex ante subjective assessments.

Sensory enhancement, a pilot perceptual study of subdermal magnetic implants

Subdermal magnetic implants originated as an art form in the world of body modification. To date an in depth scientific analysis of the benefits of this implant has yet to be established. This research explores the concept of sensory extension of the tactile sense utilising this form of implantation. This relatively simple procedure enables the tactile sense to respond to static and alternating magnetic fields. This is not to say that the underlying biology of the system has changed; i.e. the concept does not increase our tactile frequency response range or sensitivity to pressure, but now does invoke a perceptual response to a stimulus that is not innately available to humans. Within this research two social surveys have been conducted in order to ascertain one, the social acceptance of the general notion of human enhancement, and two the perceptual experiences of individuals with the magnetic implants themselves. In terms of acceptance to the notion of sensory improvement (via implantation) ~39% of the general population questioned responded positively with a further ~25% of the respondents answering with the indecisive response. Thus with careful dissemination a large proportion of individuals may adopt this technology much like this if it were to become available for consumers. Interestingly of the responses collected from the magnetic implants survey ~60% of the respondents actually underwent the implant for magnetic vision purposes. The main contribution of this research however comes from a series of psychophysical testing. In which 7 subjects with subdermal magnetic implants, were cross compared with 7 subjects that had similar magnets superficially attached to their dermis. The experimentation examined multiple psychometric thresholds of the candidates including intensity, frequency and temporal. Whilst relatively simple, the experimental setup for the perceptual experimentation conducted was novel in that custom hardware and protocols were created in order to determine the subjective thresholds of the individuals. Abstract iv The overall purpose of this research is to utilise this concept in high stress scenarios, such as driving or piloting; whereby alerts and warnings could be relayed to an operator without intruding upon their other (typically overloaded) exterior senses (i.e. the auditory and visual senses). Hence each of the thresholding experiments were designed with the intention of utilising the results in the design of signals for information transfer. The findings from the study show that the implanted group of subjects significantly outperformed the superficial group in the absolute intensity threshold experiment, i.e. the implanted group required significantly less force than the superficial group in order to perceive the stimulus. The results for the frequency difference threshold showed no significant difference in the two groups tested. Interestingly however at low frequencies, i.e. 20 and 50 Hz, the ability of the subjects tested to discriminate frequencies significantly increased with more complex waveforms i.e. square and sawtooth, when compared against the typically used sinewave. Furthermore a novel protocol for establishing the temporal gap detection threshold during a temporal numerosity study has been established in this thesis. This experiment measured the subjects’ capability to correctly determine the number of concatenated signals presented to them whilst the time between the signals, referred to as pulses, tended to zero. A significant finding was that when altering the length of, the frequency of, and the number of cycles of the pulses, the time between pulses for correct recognition altered. This finding will ultimately aid in the design of the tactile alerts for this method of information transfer. Preliminary development work for the use of this method of input to the body, in an automotive scenario, is also presented within this thesis in the form of a driving simulation. The overall goal of which is to present warning alerts to a driver, such as rear-to-end collision, or excessive speeds on roads, in order to prevent incidents and penalties from occurring. Discussion on the broader utility of this implant has been presented, reflecting on its potential use as a basis for vibrotactile, and sensory substitution, devices. This discussion furthers with postulations on its use as a human machine interface, as well as how a similar implant could be used within the ear as a hearing aid device.

Moving towards a more mechanistic approach in the determination of soil heat flux from remote measurements - I. A universal approach to calculate thermal inertia

In this paper we pledge that physically based equations should be combined with remote sensing techniques to enable a more theoretically rigorous estimation of area-average soil heat flux, G. A standard physical equation (i.e. the analytical or exact method) for the estimation of G, in combination with a simple, but theoretically derived, equation for soil thermal inertia (F), provides the basis for a more transparent and readily interpretable method for the estimation of G; without the requirement for in situ instrumentation. Moreover, such an approach ensures a more universally applicable method than those derived from purely empirical studies (employing vegetation indices and albedo, for example). Hence, a new equation for the estimation of Gamma(for homogeneous soils) is discussed in this paper which only requires knowledge of soil type, which is readily obtainable from extant soil databases and surveys, in combination with a coarse estimate of moisture status. This approach can be used to obtain area-averaged estimates of Gamma(and thus G, as explained in paper II) which is important for large-scale energy balance studies that employ aircraft or satellite data. Furthermore, this method also relaxes the instrumental demand for studies at the plot and field scale (no requirement for in situ soil temperature sensors, soil heat flux plates and/or thermal conductivity sensors). In addition, this equation can be incorporated in soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer models that use the force restore method to update surface temperatures (such as the well-known ISBA model), to replace the thermal inertia coefficient.

Food geographies I: relational foodscapes and the busy-ness of being more-than-food

The study of foodscapes has spread throughout geography at the same time as food scholarship has spearheaded post-disciplinary research. This report argues that geographers have taken to post-disciplinarity to explore the ways that food is ‘more-than-food’ through analyses of the visceral nature of eating and politics and the vital (re)materializations of food’s cultural geographies. Visceral food geographies illuminate what I call the ‘contingent relationalities’ of food in the critical evaluation of the indeterminate, situated politics of ‘feeling food’ and those of the embodied collectivities of obesity. Questions remain, however, about how a visceral framework might be deployed for broader critiques within foodscapes and the study of human geography. The study of food’s vital materialisms opens up investigation into the practices of the ‘makings’ of meat, food waste and eating networks. Analysis of affect, embodiment and cultural practices is central to these theorizations and suggests consideration of the multiple materialisms of food, space and eating. There is, I contend, in the more radical, ‘post-relational’ approaches to food, the need for a note of caution. Exuberant claims for the ontological, vital agency of food should be tempered by, or at least run parallel to, critical questions of the real politik of political and practical agency in light of recent struggles over austerity, food poverty and food justice.