Propagation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation through the Maritime Continent and scale interaction with the diurnal cycle of precipitation

The convectively active part of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) propagates eastward through the warm pool, from the Indian Ocean through the Maritime Continent (the Indonesian archipelago) to the western Pacific. The Maritime Continent's complex topography means the exact nature of the MJO propagation through this region is unclear. Model simulations of the MJO are often poor over the region, leading to local errors in latent heat release and global errors in medium-range weather prediction and climate simulation. Using 14 northern winters of TRMM satellite data it is shown that, where the mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is strong, 80% of the MJO precipitation signal in the Maritime Continent is accounted for by changes in the amplitude of the diurnal cycle. Additionally, the relationship between outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and precipitation is weakened here, such that OLR is no longer a reliable proxy for precipitation. The canonical view of the MJO as the smooth eastward propagation of a large-scale precipitation envelope also breaks down over the islands of the Maritime Continent. Instead, a vanguard of precipitation (anomalies of 2.5 mm day^-1 over 10^6 km^2) jumps ahead of the main body by approximately 6 days or 2000 km. Hence, there can be enhanced precipitation over Sumatra, Borneo or New Guinea when the large-scale MJO envelope over the surrounding ocean is one of suppressed precipitation. This behaviour can be accommodated into existing MJO theories. Frictional and topographic moisture convergence and relatively clear skies ahead of the main convective envelope combine with the low thermal inertia of the islands, to allow a rapid response in the diurnal cycle which rectifies onto the lower-frequency MJO. Hence, accurate representations of the diurnal cycle and its scale interaction appear to be necessary for models to simulate the MJO successfully.

A reversal of climatic trends in the North Atlantic since 2005

In the mid-1990s the North Atlantic subpolar gyre warmed rapidly, which had important climate impacts, such as increased hurricane numbers, and changes to rainfall over Africa, Europe and North America. Evidence suggests that the warming was largely due to a strengthening of the ocean circulation, particularly the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Since the mid-1990s direct and indirect measurements have suggested a decline in the strength of the ocean circulation, which is expected to lead to a reduction in northward heat transport. Here we show that since 2005 a large volume of the upper North Atlantic Ocean has cooled significantly by approximately -0.45C or 1.5x10^22 J, reversing the previous warming trend. By analysing observations and a state-of-the-art climate model, we show that this cooling is consistent with a reduction in the strength of the ocean circulation and heat transport, linked to record low densities in the deep Labrador Sea. The low density in the deep Labrador Sea is primarily due to deep ocean warming since 1995, but a long-term freshening also played a role. The observed upper ocean cooling since 2005 is not consistent with the hypothesis that anthropogenic aerosols directly drive Atlantic temperatures.

Subseasonal extremes of precipitation and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon in a climate-change scenario

Changes to the behaviour of subseasonal precipitation extremes and active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon are assessed in this study using pre-industrial and 2 × CO2 integrations of the Hadley Centre coupled model HadCM3, which is able to simulate the monsoon seasonal cycle reasonably. At 2 × CO2, mean summer rainfall increases slightly, especially over central and northern India. The mean intensity of daily precipitation during the monsoon is found to increase, consistent with fewer wet days, and there are increases to heavy rain events beyond changes in the mean alone. The chance of reaching particular thresholds of heavy rainfall is found to approximately double over northern India, increasing the likelihood of damaging floods on a seasonal basis. The local distribution of such projections is uncertain, however, given the large spread in mean monsoon rainfall change and associated extremes amongst even the most recent coupled climate models. The measured increase of the heaviest precipitation events over India is found to be broadly in line with the degree of atmospheric warming and associated increases in specific humidity, lending a degree of predictability to changes in rainfall extremes. Active-break cycles of the Indian summer monsoon, important particularly due to their effect on agricultural output, are shown to be reasonably represented in HadCM3, in particular with some degree of northward propagation. We note an intensification of both active and break events, particularly when measured against the annual cycle, although there is no suggestion of any change to the duration or likelihood of monsoon breaks. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Benchmarking or business opportunity: Using milk recording data to expose your clients' weaknesses

Routine milk recording data, often covering many years, are available for approximately half the dairy herds of England and Wales. In addition to milk yield and quality, these data include production events that can be used to derive objective Key Performance Indicators (KPI) describing a herd's fertility and production. Recent developments in information systems give veterinarians and other technical advisers access to these KPIs on-line. In addition to reviewing individual herd performance, advisers can establish local benchmark groups to demonstrate the relative performance of similar herds in the vicinity. The use of existing milk recording data places no additional demands on farmer's time or resources. These developments could also readily be exploited by universities to introduce veterinary undergraduates to the realities of commercial dairy production.

Effect of feeding supplemental fibrolytic enzymes or soluble sugars with malic acid on milk production

Two trials were conducted to evaluate effects of feeding supplemental fibrolytic enzymes or soluble sugars and malic acid on milk production. In trial 1, 257 cows at four sites were fed a basal diet consisting of no more than 60% of forage DM as corn silage and less than 40% as alfalfa hay. Cows were assigned randomly within site, parity, and two stages of lactation to: 1) control; 2) enzyme A; 3) enzyme B; and 4) soluble sugars and malic acid. There was a 14-d pretreatment and an 84-d treatment period. Enzyme solutions were sprayed on either the forage component or the TMR each day while mixing feed. Trial 2 was similar, except 122 cows at one site in the United Kingdom were fed diets containing forage that was 75% corn silage and 25% grass silage, and all cows began the study between 25 to 31 DIM. Mean milk productions for 233 cows that completed trial 1 were 32.9, 32.5, 32.4, and 32.9 kg/d for control, enzyme A, enzyme B, and soluble sugars and malic acid, respectively. Mean milk productions for 116 cows that completed trial 2 were 28.2, 27.9, 28.8, and 28.4 kg/d, respectively. In vitro analyses of the activities of enzyme solutions indicated that all major cellulose and hemicellulose degrading activities were present; however, the pH optima (approximate pH = 4 to 5) were more acidic, and the temperature optimum (approximately 50 C) was greater than normal pH and temperature in the rumen. If fibrolytic activity in the rumen is a major mechanism of action of supplemental fibrolytic enzymes, it appears that considerable activity of these preparations was lost due to conditions in the rumen. In conclusion, feeding supplemental fibrolytic enzymes or malic acid with soluble sugars had no effect on milk production under the conditions used in this study.

Estimation of population growth or decline in genetically monitored populations

This article introduces a new general method for genealogical inference that samples independent genealogical histories using importance sampling (IS) and then samples other parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It is then possible to more easily utilize the advantages of importance sampling in a fully Bayesian framework. The method is applied to the problem of estimating recent changes in effective population size from temporally spaced gene frequency data. The method gives the posterior distribution of effective population size at the time of the oldest sample and at the time of the most recent sample, assuming a model of exponential growth or decline during the interval. The effect of changes in number of alleles, number of loci, and sample size on the accuracy of the method is described using test simulations, and it is concluded that these have an approximately equivalent effect. The method is used on three example data sets and problems in interpreting the posterior densities are highlighted and discussed.

Incorporation of cis-9, trans-11 or trans-10, cis-12 conjugated linoleic acid into human erythrocytes in vivo

The purpose of this study was to determine the incorporation into erythrocytes of cis (c)-9,trans (t)-11 conjugated linoleic acid (CLA) and t10,c12 CLA consumed as supplements highly enriched in these isomers. Healthy men (31 8 years) consumed 1, 2, and 4 capsules containing approximately 80 g/100 g of either c9,t11 CLA or t10,c12 CLA for sequential 8-week periods. Fatty acid concentrations in erythrocyte total lipids were determined at baseline and after consumption of the highest dose. The increase in c9,t11 CLA concentration (0.31 g/100 g) was significantly greater than that in t10,c12 CLA (0.19 g/100 g). This was associated with minor changes in concentrations of some fatty acids of chain length greater than 20 carbons. These data suggest selective assimilation of individual CLA isomers into erythrocyte lipids and partial substitution for specific saturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids. (C) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Fighting in fig wasps: do males avoid killing brothers or do they never meet them?

1. In many fig wasp species, armoured wingless males regularly engage in lethal fights for access to females inside figs, which act as discrete mating patches. 2. Kin selection generally opposes killing brothers, because their reproductive success provides indirect genetic benefits (inclusive fitness). However, siblicide may be avoided if (i) brothers do not occur in the same figs, or (ii) males avoid fighting brothers in the same fig. Alternatively, (iii) siblicide may occur because intense mate competition between brothers at the local scale overcomes kin selection effects, or (iv) males do not recognise kin. 3. A fig may also contain wasps from other closely related species and it is not known if males also fight with these individuals. 4. Nine microsatellite loci were used in the first genetic analysis of fighting in fig wasps. We assigned species and sibling identities to males and tested alternative fighting scenarios for three Sycoscapter wasp species in figs of Ficus rubiginosa. 5. Approximately 60% of figs contained males frommore than one Sycoscapter species and approximately 80% of fights were between conspecifics, but a surprising 20% were between heterospecific males. 6.Within species, fewfigs contained brothers, suggesting that females typically lay one son per fig. Overall, most males do not compete with brothers and all fights observed were between unrelated males. Key words:Competition, fighting, genetics, kin selection, microsatellites, relatedness.