Motion of the dayside polar cap boundary during substorm cycles: I. Observations of pulses in the magnetopause reconnection rate

Using data from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter) VHF radar and DMSP (Defense Meteorological Satellite Program) spacecraft passes, we study the motion of the dayside open-closed field line boundary during two substorm cycles. The satellite data show that the motions of ion and electron temperature boundaries in EISCAT data, as reported by Moen et al. (2004), are not localised around the radar; rather, they reflect motions of the open-closed field line boundary at all MLT throughout the dayside auroral ionosphere. The boundary is shown to erode equatorward when the IMF points southward, consistent with the effect of magnetopause reconnection. During the substorm expansion and recovery phases, the dayside boundary returns poleward, whether the IMF points northward or southward. However, the poleward retreat was much faster during the substorm for which the IMF had returned to northward than for the substorm for which the IMF remained southward – even though the former substorm is much the weaker of the two. These poleward retreats are consistent with the destruction of open flux at the tail current sheet. Application of a new analysis of the peak ion energies at the equatorward edge of the cleft/cusp/mantle dispersion seen by the DMSP satellites identifies the dayside reconnection merging gap to extend in MLT from about 9.5 to 15.5 h for most of the interval. Analysis of the boundary motion, and of the convection velocities seen near the boundary by EISCAT, allows calculation of the reconnection rate (mapped down to the ionosphere) from the flow component normal to the boundary in its own rest frame. This reconnection rate is not, in general, significantly different from zero before 06:45 UT (MLT<9.5 h) – indicating that the X line footprint expands over the EISCAT field-of-view to earlier MLT only occasionally and briefly. Between 06:45 UT and 12:45UT (9.5

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field.

Excess open solar magnetic flux from satellite data: 1. Analysis of the third perihelion Ulysses pass

We use the third perihelion pass by the Ulysses spacecraft to illustrate and investigate the “flux excess” effect, whereby open solar flux estimates from spacecraft increase with increasing heliocentric distance. We analyze the potential effects of small-scale structure in the heliospheric field (giving fluctuations in the radial component on timescales smaller than 1 h) and kinematic time-of-flight effects of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow. We show that the flux excess is explained by neither very small-scale structure (timescales < 1 h) nor by the kinematic “bunching effect” on spacecraft sampling. The observed flux excesses is, however, well explained by the kinematic effect of larger-scale (>1 day) solar wind speed variations on the frozen-in heliospheric field. We show that averaging over an interval T (that is long enough to eliminate structure originating in the heliosphere yet small enough to avoid cancelling opposite polarity radial field that originates from genuine sector structure in the coronal source field) is only an approximately valid way of allowing for these effects and does not adequately explain or account for differences between the streamer belt and the polar coronal holes.

Genetic parameters and evaluations from single- and multiple-trait analysis of dairy cow fertility and milk production

Genetic parameters and breeding values for dairy cow fertility were estimated from 62 443 lactation records. Two-trait analysis of fertility and milk yield was investigated as a method to estimate fertility breeding values when culling or selection based on milk yield in early lactation determines presence or absence of fertility observations in later lactations. Fertility traits were calving interval, intervals from calving to first service, calving to conception and first to last service, conception success to first service and number of services per conception. Milk production traits were 305-day milk, fat and protein yield. For fertility traits, range of estimates of heritability (h(2)) was 0.012 to 0.028 and of permanent environmental variance (c(2)) was 0.016 to 0.032. Genetic correlations (r(g)) among fertility traits were generally high ( > 0.70). Genetic correlations of fertility with milk production traits were unfavourable (range -0.11 to 0.46). Single and two-trait analyses of fertility were compared using the same data set. The estimates of h(2) and c(2) were similar for two types of analyses. However, there were differences between estimated breeding values and rankings for the same trait from single versus multi-trait analyses. The range for rank correlation was 0.69-0.83 for all animals in the pedigree and 0.89-0.96 for sires with more than 25 daughters. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of the calving pattern of herds in small-scale dairy systems in central Mexico

This study sets out to find the best calving pattern for small-scale dairy systems in Michoacan State, central Mexico. Two models were built. First, a linear programming model was constructed to optimize calving pattern and herd structure according to metabolizable energy availability. Second, a Markov chain model was built to investigate three reproductive scenarios (good, average and poor) in order to suggest factors that maintain the calving pattern given by the linear programming model. Though it was not possible to maintain the optimal linear programming pattern, the Markov chain model suggested adopting different reproduction strategies according to period of the year that the cow is expected to calve. Comparing different scenarios, the Markov model indicated the effect of calving interval on calving pattern and herd structure.

Donepezil for the symptomatic treatment of patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials

Background: The objective was to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) compared with placebo in alleviating manifestations of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). Method: A systematic review of individual patient data from Phase II and III double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled studies of up to 24 weeks and completed by 20 December 1999. The main outcome measures were the ADAS-cog, the CIBIC-plus, and reports of adverse events. Results: A total of 2376 patients from ten trials were randomised to either donepezil 5 mg/day (n = 821), 10 mg/day (n = 662) or placebo (n = 893). Cognitive performance was better in patients receiving donepezil than in patients receiving placebo. At 12 weeks the differences in ADAS-cog scores were 5 mg/day-placebo: - 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI), - 2.6 to - 1.6; p < 0.001], 10 mg/day-placebo: - 2.5 ( - 3.1 to - 2.0; p < 0.001). The corresponding results at 24 weeks were - 2.0 ( - 2.7 to - 1.3; p < 0.001) and - 3.1 ( - 3.9 to - 2.4; p < 0.001). The difference between the 5 and 10 mg/day doses was significant at 24 weeks (p = 0.005). The odds ratios (OR) of improvement on the CIBIC-plus at 12 weeks were: 5 mg/day-placebo 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1; p < 0.001), 10 mg/day-placebo 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p < 0.001). The corresponding values at 24 weeks were 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p = 0.001) and 2.1 (1.6 to 2.8; p < 0.001). Donepezil was well tolerated; adverse events were cholinergic in nature and generally of mild severity and brief in duration. Conclusion: Donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) provides meaningful benefits in alleviating deficits in cognitive and clinician-rated global function in AD patients relative to placebo. Increased improvements in cognition were indicated for the higher dose. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A parametric model for the interval censored survival times of Acacia mangium plantation in a spacing trial

Survival times for the Acacia mangium plantation in the Segaliud Lokan Project, Sabah, East Malaysia were analysed based on 20 permanent sample plots (PSPs) established in 1988 as a spacing experiment. The PSPs were established following a complete randomized block design with five levels of spacing randomly assigned to units within four blocks at different sites. The survival times of trees in years are of interest. Since the inventories were only conducted annually, the actual survival time for each tree was not observed. Hence, the data set comprises censored survival times. Initial analysis of the survival of the Acacia mangium plantation suggested there is block by spacing interaction; a Weibull model gives a reasonable fit to the replicate survival times within each PSP; but a standard Weibull regression model is inappropriate because the shape parameter differs between PSPs. In this paper we investigate the form of the non-constant Weibull shape parameter. Parsimonious models for the Weibull survival times have been derived using maximum likelihood methods. The factor selection for the parameters is based on a backward elimination procedure. The models are compared using likelihood ratio statistics. The results suggest that both Weibull parameters depend on spacing and block.

Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies

Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally Occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting Nine European countries. Subjects 7148 cases Of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic incite (Bq/m(3)) Of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in tire control group was 97 Bq/m(3), with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m(3). For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m(3). The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in measured radon (P = 0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in usual radon-that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P=0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m(3). The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m(3) would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe.

Who benefits from reducing the cost of formality? Quantile regression discontinuity analysis

This paper studies the effects of increasing formality via tax reduction and simplification schemes on micro-firm performance. It uses the 1997 Brazilian SIMPLES program. We develop a simple theoretical model to show that SIMPLES has an impact only on a segment of the micro-firm population, for which the effect of formality on firm performance can be identified, and that can be analyzed along the single dimensional quantiles of the conditional firm revenues. To estimate the effect of formality, we use an econometric approach that compares eligible and non-eligible firms, born before and after SIMPLES in a local interval about the introduction of SIMPLES. We use an estimator that combines both quantile regression and the regression discontinuity identification strategy. The empirical results corroborate the positive effect of formality on microfirms' performance and produce a clear characterization of who benefits from these programs.

Spectral analysis of diffusions with jump boundary

In this paper we consider one-dimensional diffusions with constant coefficients in a finite interval with jump boundary and a certain deterministic jump distribution. We use coupling methods in order to identify the spectral gap in the case of a large drift and prove that there is a threshold drift above which the bottom of the spectrum no longer depends on the drift. As a corollary to our result we are able to answer two questions concerning elliptic eigenvalue problems with non-local boundary conditions formulated previously by Iddo Ben-Ari and Ross Pinsky.

Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000–2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a presentday direct aerosol forcing of −0.49Wm−2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of −1.17Wm−2 obtained with GLOMAP-mode is 20% weaker than with CLASSIC. Results suggest that mass-based schemes such as CLASSIC lack the necessary sophistication to provide realistic input to aerosol-cloud interaction schemes. Furthermore, the importance of the 1850 baseline highlights how model skill in predicting present-day aerosol does not guarantee reliable forcing estimates. Those findings suggest that the more complex representation of aerosol processes in microphysical schemes improves the fidelity of simulated aerosol forcings.

The Gly482Ser genotype at the PPARGC1A gene and elevated blood pressure: a meta-analysis involving 13,949 individuals.

The protein encoded by the PPARGC1A gene is expressed at high levels in metabolically active tissues and is involved in the control of oxidative stress via reactive oxygen species detoxification. Several recent reports suggest that the PPARGC1A Gly482Ser (rs8192678) missense polymorphism may relate inversely with blood pressure. We used conventional meta-analysis methods to assess the association between Gly482Ser and systolic (SBP) or diastolic blood pressures (DBP) or hypertension in 13,949 individuals from 17 studies, of which 6,042 were previously unpublished observations. The studies comprised cohorts of white European, Asian, and American Indian adults, and adolescents from South America. Stratified analyses were conducted to control for population stratification. Pooled genotype frequencies were 0.47 (Gly482Gly), 0.42 (Gly482Ser), and 0.11 (Ser482Ser). We found no evidence of association between Gly482Ser and SBP [Gly482Gly: mean = 131.0 mmHg, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 130.5-131.5 mmHg; Gly482Ser mean = 133.1 mmHg, 95% CI = 132.6-133.6 mmHg; Ser482Ser: mean = 133.5 mmHg, 95% CI = 132.5-134.5 mmHg; P = 0.409] or DBP (Gly482Gly: mean = 80.3 mmHg, 95% CI = 80.0-80.6 mmHg; Gly482Ser mean = 81.5 mmHg, 95% CI = 81.2-81.8 mmHg; Ser482Ser: mean = 82.1 mmHg, 95% CI = 81.5-82.7 mmHg; P = 0.651). Contrary to previous reports, we did not observe significant effect modification by sex (SBP, P = 0.966; DBP, P = 0.715). We were also unable to confirm the previously reported association between the Ser482 allele and hypertension [odds ratio: 0.97, 95% CI = 0.87-1.08, P = 0.585]. These results were materially unchanged when analyses were focused on whites only. However, statistical evidence of gene-age interaction was apparent for DBP [Gly482Gly: 73.5 (72.8, 74.2), Gly482Ser: 77.0 (76.2, 77.8), Ser482Ser: 79.1 (77.4, 80.9), P = 4.20 x 10(-12)] and SBP [Gly482Gly: 121.4 (120.4, 122.5), Gly482Ser: 125.9 (124.6, 127.1), Ser482Ser: 129.2 (126.5, 131.9), P = 7.20 x 10(-12)] in individuals <50 yr (n = 2,511); these genetic effects were absent in those older than 50 yr (n = 5,088) (SBP, P = 0.41; DBP, P = 0.51). Our findings suggest that the PPARGC1A Ser482 allele may be associated with higher blood pressure, but this is only apparent in younger adults.

N1 enhancement in synesthesia during visual and audio-visual perception in semantic cross-modal conflict situations: an ERP study

Synesthesia entails a special kind of sensory perception, where stimulation in one sensory modality leads to an internally generated perceptual experience of another, not stimulated sensory modality. This phenomenon can be viewed as an abnormal multisensory integration process as here the synesthetic percept is aberrantly fused with the stimulated modality. Indeed, recent synesthesia research has focused on multimodal processing even outside of the specific synesthesia-inducing context and has revealed changed multimodal integration, thus suggesting perceptual alterations at a global level. Here, we focused on audio-visual processing in synesthesia using a semantic classification task in combination with visually or auditory-visually presented animated and in animated objects in an audio-visual congruent and incongruent manner. Fourteen subjects with auditory-visual and/or grapheme-color synesthesia and 14 control subjects participated in the experiment. During presentation of the stimuli, event-related potentials were recorded from 32 electrodes. The analysis of reaction times and error rates revealed no group differences with best performance for audio-visually congruent stimulation indicating the well-known multimodal facilitation effect. We found enhanced amplitude of the N1 component over occipital electrode sites for synesthetes compared to controls. The differences occurred irrespective of the experimental condition and therefore suggest a global influence on early sensory processing in synesthetes.

The dependence of high-latitude dayside ionospheric flows on the North-South component of the IMF: A high time resolution correlation analysis using EISCAT “Polar” and AMPTE UKS and IRM data

In 1984 and 1985 a series of experiments was undertaken in which dayside ionospheric flows were measured by the EISCAT “Polar” experiment, while observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) were made by the AMPTE UKS and IRM spacecraft upstream from the Earth's bow shock. As a result, 40 h of simultaneous data were acquired, which are analysed in this paper to investigate the relationship between the ionospheric flow and the North-South (Bz) component of the IMF. The ionospheric flow data have 2.5 min resolution, and cover the dayside local time sector from ∼ 09:30 to ∼ 18:30 M.L.T. and the latitude range from 70.8° to 74.3°. Using cross-correlation analysis it is shown that clear relationships do exist between the ionospheric flow and IMF Bz, but that the form of the relations depends strongly on latitude and local time. These dependencies are readily interpreted in terms of a twinvortex flow pattern in which the magnitude and latitudinal extent of the flows become successively larger as Bz becomes successively more negative. Detailed maps of the flow are derived for a range of Bz values (between ± 4 nT) which clearly demonstrate the presence of these effects in the data. The data also suggest that the morning reversal in the East-West component of flow moves to earlier local times as Bz, declines in value and becomes negative. The correlation analysis also provides information on the ionospheric response time to changes in IMF Bz, it being found that the response is very rapid indeed. The most rapid response occurs in the noon to mid-afternoon sector, where the westward flows of the dusk cell respond with a delay of 3.9 ± 2.2 min to changes in the North-South field at the subsolar magnetopause. The flows appear to evolve in form over the subsequent ~ 5 min interval, however, as indicated by the longer response times found for the northward component of flow in this sector (6.7 ±2.2 min), and in data from earlier and later local times. No evidence is found for a latitudinal gradient in response time; changes in flow take place coherently in time across the entire radar field-of-view.

Treatment of child anxiety in the context of maternal anxiety disorder: a randomised controlled trial and economic analysis

Background Cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT) for childhood anxiety disorders is associated with modest outcomes in the context of parental anxiety disorder. Objectives This study evaluated whether or not the outcome of CBT for children with anxiety disorders in the context of maternal anxiety disorders is improved by the addition of (i) treatment of maternal anxiety disorders, or (ii) treatment focused on maternal responses. The incremental cost-effectiveness of the additional treatments was also evaluated. Design Participants were randomised to receive (i) child cognitive–behavioural therapy (CCBT); (ii) CCBT with CBT to target maternal anxiety disorders [CCBT + maternal cognitive–behavioural therapy (MCBT)]; or (iii) CCBT with an intervention to target mother–child interactions (MCIs) (CCBT + MCI). Setting A NHS university clinic in Berkshire, UK. Participants Two hundred and eleven children with a primary anxiety disorder, whose mothers also had an anxiety disorder. Interventions All families received eight sessions of individual CCBT. Mothers in the CCBT + MCBT arm also received eight sessions of CBT targeting their own anxiety disorders. Mothers in the MCI arm received 10 sessions targeting maternal parenting cognitions and behaviours. Non-specific interventions were delivered to balance groups for therapist contact. Main outcome measures Primary clinical outcomes were the child’s primary anxiety disorder status and degree of improvement at the end of treatment. Follow-up assessments were conducted at 6 and 12 months. Outcomes in the economic analyses were identified and measured using estimated quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). QALYS were combined with treatment, health and social care costs and presented within an incremental cost–utility analysis framework with associated uncertainty. Results MCBT was associated with significant short-term improvement in maternal anxiety; however, after children had received CCBT, group differences were no longer apparent. CCBT + MCI was associated with a reduction in maternal overinvolvement and more confident expectations of the child. However, neither CCBT + MCBT nor CCBT + MCI conferred a significant post-treatment benefit over CCBT in terms of child anxiety disorder diagnoses [adjusted risk ratio (RR) 1.18, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.87 to 1.62, p = 0.29; adjusted RR CCBT + MCI vs. control: adjusted RR 1.22, 95% CI 0.90 to 1.67, p = 0.20, respectively] or global improvement ratings (adjusted RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.00 to 1.59, p = 0.05; adjusted RR 1.20, 95% CI 0.95 to 1.53, p = 0.13). CCBT + MCI outperformed CCBT on some secondary outcome measures. Furthermore, primary economic analyses suggested that, at commonly accepted thresholds of cost-effectiveness, the probability that CCBT + MCI will be cost-effective in comparison with CCBT (plus non-specific interventions) is about 75%. Conclusions Good outcomes were achieved for children and their mothers across treatment conditions. There was no evidence of a benefit to child outcome of supplementing CCBT with either intervention focusing on maternal anxiety disorder or maternal cognitions and behaviours. However, supplementing CCBT with treatment that targeted maternal cognitions and behaviours represented a cost-effective use of resources, although the high percentage of missing data on some economic variables is a shortcoming. Future work should consider whether or not effects of the adjunct interventions are enhanced in particular contexts. The economic findings highlight the utility of considering the use of a broad range of services when evaluating interventions with this client group. Trial registration Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN19762288. Funding This trial was funded by the Medical Research Council (MRC) and Berkshire Healthcare Foundation Trust and managed by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) on behalf of the MRC–NIHR partnership (09/800/17) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 19, No. 38.