Forecast convergence score: a forecaster's approach to analysing hydro-meteorological forecast systems.

In this paper the properties of a hydro-meteorological forecasting system for forecasting river flows have been analysed using a probabilistic forecast convergence score (FCS). The focus on fixed event forecasts provides a forecaster's approach to system behaviour and adds an important perspective to the suite of forecast verification tools commonly used in this field. A low FCS indicates a more consistent forecast. It can be demonstrated that the FCS annual maximum decreases over the last 10 years. With lead time, the FCS of the ensemble forecast decreases whereas the control and high resolution forecast increase. The FCS is influenced by the lead time, threshold and catchment size and location. It indicates that one should use seasonality based decision rules to issue flood warnings.

Bis amide-aromatic-ureasd - highly effective hydro- and organogelator systems

A series of hydro- and organo-supergelators have been synthesised via coupling of simple bis aromaticureas via alkyl amide linkages. These bis amide-aromatic-ureas exhibited reduced critical gelator concentrations, improved gelator stability, mechanical and dye removal properties for potential use in water purification, in comparison to related bis aromatic-ureas. Systematic structure studies via variation of the bis amide-aromatic-urea linker length as well as functionalization of the terminal aromatic moieties have enabled control over the gel properties.

Bis amide-aromatic-ureasd highly effective hydro- and organogelator systems

A series of hydro- and organo-supergelators have been synthesised via coupling of simple bis aromaticureas via alkyl amide linkages. These bis amide-aromatic-ureas exhibited reduced critical gelator concentrations, improved gelator stability, mechanical and dye removal properties for potential use in water purification, in comparison to related bis aromatic-ureas. Systematic structure studies via variation of the bis amide-aromatic-urea linker length as well as functionalization of the terminal aromatic moieties have enabled control over the gel properties.

HESS Opinions: On forecast (in)consistency in a hydro-meteorological chain: curse or blessing?

Flood forecasting increasingly relies on numerical weather prediction forecasts to achieve longer lead times. One of the key difficulties that is emerging in constructing a decision framework for these flood forecasts is what to dowhen consecutive forecasts are so different that they lead to different conclusions regarding the issuing of warnings or triggering other action. In this opinion paper we explore some of the issues surrounding such forecast inconsistency (also known as "Jumpiness", "Turning points", "Continuity" or number of "Swings"). In thsi opinion paper we define forecast inconsistency; discuss the reasons why forecasts might be inconsistent; how we should analyse inconsistency; and what we should do about it; how we should communicate it and whether it is a totally undesirable property. The property of consistency is increasingly emerging as a hot topic in many forecasting environments.

Platelet 12-lipoxygenase activation via glycoprotein VI: involvement of multiple signaling pathways in agonist control of H(P)ETE synthesis

Lipoxygenases (LOX) contribute to vascular disease and inflammation through generation of bioactive lipids, including 12-hydro(pero xyeicosatetraenoic acid (12-H(P)ETE). The physiological mechanisms that acutely control LOX product generation in mammalian cells are uncharacterized. Human platelets that contain a 12-LOX isoform (p12-LOX) were used to define pathways that activate H(P)ETE synthesis in the vasculature. Collagen and collagen-related peptide (CRP) (1 to 10 g/mL) acutely induced platelet 12-H(P)ETE synthesis. This implicated the collagen receptor glycoprotein VI (GPVI), which signals via the immunoreceptor-based activatory motif (ITAM)- containing FcR chain. Conversely, thrombin only activated at high concentrations ( 0.2 U/mL), whereas U46619 and ADP alone were ineffective. Collagen or CRP-stimulated 12-H(P)ETE generation was inhibited by staurosporine, PP2, wortmannin, BAPTA/AM, EGTA, and L-655238, implicating src-tyrosine kinases, PI3-kinase, Ca2 mobilization, and p12-LOX translocation. In contrast, protein kinase C (PKC) inhibition potentiated 12-H(P)ETE generation. Finally, activation of the immunoreceptor tyrosine-based inhibitory motif (ITIM)– containing platelet endothelial cell adhesion molecule (PECAM-1) inhibited p12-LOX product generation. This study characterizes a receptor-dependent pathway for 12-H(P)ETE synthesis via the collagen receptor GPVI, which is negatively regulated by PECAM-1 and PKC, and demonstrates a novel link between immune receptor signaling and lipid mediator generation in the vasculature. (Circ Res. 2004;94:1598-1605.)

Energy generation and consumption in Ghana

Electricity consumption in Ghana is estimated to be increasing by 10% per annum due to the demand from the growing population. However, current sources of production (hydro and thermal facilities) generate only 66% of the current demand. Considering current trends, it is difficult to substantiate these basic facts, because of the lack of information. As a result, research into the existing sources of generating electricity, electricity consumption and prospective projects has been performed. This was achieved using three key techniques; review of literature, empirical studies and modelling. The results presented suggest that, current annual installed capacity of energy generation (i.e. 1960 MW) must be increased to 9,405.59 MW, assuming 85% plant availability. This is then capable to coop with the growing demand and it would give access to the entire population as well as support commercial and industrial activities for the growth of the economy. The prospect of performing this research is with the expectation to present an academic research agenda for further exploration into the subject area, without which the growth of the country would be stagnant.

Thermobaric control of gravitational potential energy generation by diapycnal mixing in the deep ocean

Sources and sinks of gravitational potential energy (GPE) play a rate-limiting role in the large scale ocean circulation. A key source is turbulent diapycnal mixing, whereby irre- versible mixing across isoneutral surfaces is enhanced by turbulent straining of these surfaces. This has motivated international observational efforts to map diapycnal mixing in the global ocean. However, in order to accurately relate the GPE supplied to the large scale circulation by diapycnal mixing to the mixing energy source, it is first necessary to determine the ratio, ξ , of the GPE generation rate to the available potential energy dissipation rate associated with turbulent mixing. Here, the link between GPE and hydro- static pressure is used to derive the GPE budget for a com- pressible ocean with a nonlinear equation of state. The role of diapycnal mixing is isolated and from this a global cli- matological distribution of ξ is calculated. It is shown that, for a given source of mixing energy, typically three times as much GPE is generated if the mixing takes place in bottom waters rather than in the pycnocline. This is due to GPE destruction by cabbelling in the pycnocline, as opposed to thermobaric enhancement of GPE generation by diapycnal mixing in the deep ocean.

Evaluation of ECMWF medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation for river basins

Providing probabilistic forecasts using Ensemble Prediction Systems has become increasingly popular in both the meteorological and hydrological communities. Compared to conventional deterministic forecasts, probabilistic forecasts may provide more reliable forecasts of a few hours to a number of days ahead, and hence are regarded as better tools for taking uncertainties into consideration and hedging against weather risks. It is essential to evaluate performance of raw ensemble forecasts and their potential values in forecasting extreme hydro-meteorological events. This study evaluates ECMWF’s medium-range ensemble forecasts of precipitation over the period 2008/01/01-2012/09/30 on a selected mid-latitude large scale river basin, the Huai river basin (ca. 270,000 km2) in central-east China. The evaluation unit is sub-basin in order to consider forecast performance in a hydrologically relevant way. The study finds that forecast performance varies with sub-basin properties, between flooding and non-flooding seasons, and with the forecast properties of aggregated time steps and lead times. Although the study does not evaluate any hydrological applications of the ensemble precipitation forecasts, its results have direct implications in hydrological forecasts should these ensemble precipitation forecasts be employed in hydrology.

First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Infrared and millimetre-wave scintillometry in the suburban environment – Part 2: Large-area sensible and latent heat fluxes

A millimetre-wave scintillometer was paired with an infrared scintillometer, enabling estimation of large-area evapotranspiration across northern Swindon, a suburban area in the UK. Both sensible and latent heat fluxes can be obtained using this "two-wavelength" technique, as it is able to provide both temperature and humidity structure parameters, offering a major advantage over conventional single-wavelength scintillometry. The first paper of this two-part series presented the measurement theory and structure parameters. In this second paper, heat fluxes are obtained and analysed. These fluxes, estimated using two-wavelength scintillometry over an urban area, are the first of their kind. Source area modelling suggests the scintillometric fluxes are representative of 5–10 km2. For comparison, local-scale (0.05–0.5 km2) fluxes were measured by an eddy covariance station. Similar responses to seasonal changes are evident at the different scales but the energy partitioning varies between source areas. The response to moisture availability is explored using data from 2 consecutive years with contrasting rainfall patterns (2011–2012). This extensive data set offers insight into urban surface-atmosphere interactions and demonstrates the potential for two-wavelength scintillometry to deliver fluxes over mixed land cover, typically representative of an area 1–2 orders of magnitude greater than for eddy covariance measurements. Fluxes at this scale are extremely valuable for hydro-meteorological model evaluation and assessment of satellite data products

Does fertilizer type and method of application cause significant differences in essential oil yield and composition in rosemary (Rosmarinus officinalis L.)?

Organic fertilizers based on seaweed extract potentially have beneficial effects on many crop plants. Herewe investigate the impact of organic fertilizer on Rosmarinus officinalis measured by both yield and oilquality. Plants grown in a temperature-controlled greenhouse with a natural photoperiod and a controlledirrigation system were treated with seaweed fertilizer and an inorganic fertilizer of matching mineralcomposition but with no organic content. Treatments were either by spraying on to the foliage or wateringdirect to the compost. The essential oil was extracted by hydro-distillation with a Clevenger apparatusand analysed by gas-chromatography mass-spectrometry (GC–MS) and NMR. The chemical composi-tions of the plants were compared, and qualitative differences were found between fertilizer treatmentsand application methods. Thus sprayed seaweed fertilizer showed a significantly higher percentage of�-pinene, �-phellandrene, �-terpinene (monoterpenes) and 3-methylenecycloheptene than other treat-ments. Italicene, �-bisabolol (sesquiterpenes), �-thujene, and E-isocitral (monoterpenes) occurred insignificantly higher percentages for plants watered with the seaweed extract. Each was significantly dif-ferent to the inorganic fertilizer and to controls. The seaweed treatments caused a significant increasein oil amount and leaf area as compared with both inorganic treatments and the control regardless ofapplication method.

Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: a risk-based decision-making game

Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecastuncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty to transform the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called “How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?”. The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydrometeorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants’ willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers.