Spin spaces and positive decomposition of linear maps on ordered Banach spaces

Spin factors and generalizations are used to revisit positive generation of B(E, F), where E and F are ordered Banach spaces. Interior points of B(E, F)+ are discussed and in many cases it is seen that positive generation of B(E, F) is controlled by spin structure in F when F is a JBW-algebra.

The life history legacy of evolutionary body size change in carnivores

We estimate the body sizes of direct ancestors of extant carnivores, and examine selected aspects of life history as a function not only of species' current size, but also of recent changes in size. Carnivore species that have undergone marked recent evolutionary size change show life history characteristics typically associated with species closer to the ancestral body size. Thus, phyletic giants tend to mature earlier and have larger litters of smaller offspring at shorter intervals than do species of the same body size that are not phyletic giants. Phyletic dwarfs, by contrast, have slower life histories than nondwarf species of the same body size. We discuss two possible mechanisms for the legacy of recent size change: lag (in which life history variables cannot evolve as quickly as body size, leading to species having the 'wrong' life history for their body size) and body size optimization (in which life history and hence body size evolve in response to changes in energy availability); at present, we cannot distinguish between these alternatives. Our finding that recent body size changes help explain residual variation around life history allometries shows that a more dynamic view of character change enables comparative studies to make more precise predictions about species traits in the context of their evolutionary background.

Are differences in life history parameters of the pine beauty moth Panolis flammea modified by host plant quality or gender?

Pine beauty moth (Panolis flammea D&S, Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) were reared individually from egg hatch to pupation on one of three host plants, Pinus sylvestris (native host plant), Pinus contorta (Central Interior seed origin - good quality introduced host) and P. contorta (Alaskan seed origin - poor quality introduced host). After emerging from the pupae the adult moths were confined to a Skeena River seed origin of P. contorta. Female pupal weight and adult life span were significantly higher on P. sylvestris than on the two lodgepole pine seed origins. Development time was, however, not significantly different between treatments, but larval mean relative growth rate was found to be negatively correlated with birth weight and positively correlated with pupal weight. The time to emerge from the pupa was also not significantly different between treatments. However, there were marked differences between the genders. Male moths lost a significantly greater proportion of their weight over the pupal stage but lived significantly longer as adults than the females. Female moths emerged from the pupal stage significantly sooner than male moths. There was no apparent advantage of lai-ge birth size when looked at in terms of subsequent performance. These results are discussed in light of current life history theory.

Quantifying chaos: a tale of two maps

In many applications, there is a desire to determine if the dynamics of interest are chaotic or not. Since positive Lyapunov exponents are a signature for chaos, they are often used to determine this. Reliable estimates of Lyapunov exponents should demonstrate evidence of convergence; but literature abounds in which this evidence lacks. This paper presents two maps through which it highlights the importance of providing evidence of convergence of Lyapunov exponent estimates. The results suggest cautious conclusions when confronted with real data. Moreover, the maps are interesting in their own right.

Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation

We consider whether survey respondents’ probability distributions, reported as histograms, provide reliable and coherent point predictions, when viewed through the lens of a Bayesian learning model. We argue that a role remains for eliciting directly-reported point predictions in surveys of professional forecasters.