Case study part 2: probabilistic modelling of long-term effects of pesticides on individual breeding success in birds and mammals

Abstract: Long-term exposure of skylarks to a fictitious insecticide and of wood mice to a fictitious fungicide were modelled probabilistically in a Monte Carlo simulation. Within the same simulation the consequences of exposure to pesticides on reproductive success were modelled using the toxicity-exposure-linking rules developed by R.S. Bennet et al. (2005) and the interspecies extrapolation factors suggested by R. Luttik et al.(2005). We built models to reflect a range of scenarios and as a result were able to show how exposure to pesticide might alter the number of individuals engaged in any given phase of the breeding cycle at any given time and predict the numbers of new adults at the season’s end.

Individual Differences in Amygdala and Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Activity are Associated with Evaluation Speed and Psychological Well-being

Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we examined whether individual differences in amygdala activation in response to negative relative to neutral information are related to differences in the speed with which such information is evaluated, the extent to which such differences are associated with medial prefrontal cortex function, and their relationship with measures of trait anxiety and psychological well-being (PWB). Results indicated that faster judgments of negative relative to neutral information were associated with increased left and right amygdala activation. In the prefrontal cortex, faster judgment time was associated with relative decreased activation in a cluster in the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC, BA 24). Furthermore, people who were slower to evaluate negative versus neutral information reported higher PWB. Importantly, higher PWB was strongly associated with increased activation in the ventral ACC for negative relative to neutral information. Individual differences in trait anxiety did not predict variation in judgment time or in amygdala or ventral ACC activity. These findings suggest that people high in PWB effectively recruit the ventral ACC when confronted with potentially aversive stimuli, manifest reduced activity in subcortical regions such as the amygdala, and appraise such information as less salient as reflected in slower evaluative speed.

Early social experience and individual differences in infants' joint attention

Fifty-nine healthy infants were filmed with their mothers and with a researcher at two, four, six and nine months in face-to-face play, and in toy-play at six and nine months. During toy-play at both ages, two indices of joint attention (JA)—infant bids for attention, and percent of time in shared attention—were assessed, along with other behavioural measures. Global ratings were made at all four ages of infants’ and mothers’ interactive style. The mothers varied in psychiatric history (e.g., half had experienced postpartum depression) and socioeconomic status, so their interactive styles were diverse. Variation in nine-month infant JA — with mother and with researcher — was predicted by variation in maternal behaviour and global ratings at six months, but not at two or four months. Concurrent adult behaviour also influenced nine-month JA, independent of infant ratings. Six-month maternal behaviours that positively predicted later JA (some of which remained important at nine months) included teaching, conjoint action on a toy, and global sensitivity. Other behaviours (e.g., entertaining) negatively predicted later JA. Findings are discussed in terms of social-learning and neurobiological accounts of JA emergence.

Developmental changes in the germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and longevity of individual seeds of Trifolium ambiguum

Background and Aims: Using two parental clones of outcrossing Trifolium ambiguum as a potential model system, we examined how during seed development the maternal parent, number of seeds per pod, seed position within the pod, and pod position within the inflorescence influenced individual seed fresh weight, dry weight, water content, germinability, desiccation tolerance, hardseededness, and subsequent longevity of individual seeds. Methods: Near simultaneous, manual reciprocal crosses were carried out between clonal lines for two experiments. Infructescences were harvested at intervals during seed development. Each individual seed was weighed and then used to determine dry weight or one of the physiological behaviour traits. Key Results: Whilst population mass maturity was reached at 33–36 days after pollination (DAP), seed-to-seed variation in maximum seed dry weight, when it was achieved, and when maturation drying commenced, was considerable. Individual seeds acquired germinability between 14 and 44 DAP, desiccation tolerance between 30 and 40 DAP, and the capability to become hardseeded between 30 and 47 DAP. The time for viability to fall to 50 % (p50) at 60 % relative humidity and 45 °C increased between 36 and 56 DAP, when the seed coats of most individuals had become dark orange, but declined thereafter. Individual seed f. wt at harvest did not correlate with air-dry storage survival period. Analysing survival data for cohorts of seeds reduced the standard deviation of the normal distribution of seed deaths in time, but no sub-population showed complete uniformity of survival period. Conclusions: Variation in individual seed behaviours within a developing population is inherent and inevitable. In this outbreeder, there is significant variation in seed longevity which appears dependent on embryo genotype with little effect of maternal genotype or architectural factors.

Initial results from Phase 2 of the international urban energy balance model comparison

Urban land surface schemes have been developed to model the distinct features of the urban surface and the associated energy exchange processes. These models have been developed for a range of purposes and make different assumptions related to the inclusion and representation of the relevant processes. Here, the first results of Phase 2 from an international comparison project to evaluate 32 urban land surface schemes are presented. This is the first large-scale systematic evaluation of these models. In four stages, participants were given increasingly detailed information about an urban site for which urban fluxes were directly observed. At each stage, each group returned their models' calculated surface energy balance fluxes. Wide variations are evident in the performance of the models for individual fluxes. No individual model performs best for all fluxes. Providing additional information about the surface generally results in better performance. However, there is clear evidence that poor choice of parameter values can cause a large drop in performance for models that otherwise perform well. As many models do not perform well across all fluxes, there is need for caution in their application, and users should be aware of the implications for applications and decision making.

Plant species and functional group effects on abiotic and microbial soil properties and plant-soil feedback responses in two grasslands

1 Plant species differ in their capacity to influence soil organic matter, soil nutrient availability and the composition of soil microbial communities. Their influences on soil properties result in net positive or negative feedback effects, which influence plant performance and plant community composition. 2 For two grassland systems, one on a sandy soil in the Netherlands and one on a chalk soil in the United Kingdom, we investigated how individual plant species grown in monocultures changed abiotic and biotic soil conditions. Then, we determined feedback effects of these soils to plants of the same or different species. Feedback effects were analysed at the level of plant species and plant taxonomic groups (grasses vs. forbs). 3 In the sandy soils, plant species differed in their effects on soil chemical properties, in particular potassium levels, but PLFA (phospholipid fatty acid) signatures of the soil microbial community did not differ between plant species. The effects of soil chemical properties were even greater when grasses and forbs were compared, especially because potassium levels were lower in grass monocultures. 4 In the chalk soil, there were no effects of plant species on soil chemical properties, but PLFA profiles differed significantly between soils from different monocultures. PLFA profiles differed between species, rather than between grasses and forbs. 5 In the feedback experiment, all plant species in sandy soils grew less vigorously in soils conditioned by grasses than in soils conditioned by forbs. These effects correlated significantly with soil chemical properties. None of the seven plant species showed significant differences between performance in soil conditioned by the same vs. other plant species. 6 In the chalk soil, Sanguisorba minor and in particular Briza media performed best in soil collected from conspecifics, while Bromus erectus performed best in soil from heterospecifics. There was no distinctive pattern between soils collected from forb and grass monocultures, and plant performance could not be related to soil chemical properties or PLFA signatures. 7 Our study shows that mechanisms of plant-soil feedback can depend on plant species, plant taxonomic (or functional) groups and site-specific differences in abiotic and biotic soil properties. Understanding how plant species can influence their rhizosphere, and how other plant species respond to these changes, will greatly enhance our understanding of the functioning and stability of ecosystems.

Whole crop cereals 2. Prediction of apparent digestibility and energy value from in vitro digestion techniques and near infrared reflectance spectroscopy and of chemical composition by near infrared reflectance spectroscopy

Samples of whole crop wheat (WCW, n = 134) and whole crop barley (WCB, n = 16) were collected from commercial farms in the UK over a 2-year period (2003/2004 and 2004/2005). Near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) was compared with laboratory and in vitro digestibility measures to predict digestible organic matter in the dry matter (DOMD) and metabolisable energy (ME) contents measured in vivo using sheep. Spectral models using the mean spectra of two scans were compared with those using individual spectra (duplicate spectra). Overall NIRS accurately predicted the concentration of chemical components in whole crop cereals apart from crude protein. ammonia-nitrogen, water-soluble carbohydrates, fermentation acids and solubility values. In addition. the spectral models had higher prediction power for in vivo DOMD and ME than chemical components or in vitro digestion methods. Overall there Was a benefit from the use of duplicate spectra rather than mean spectra and this was especially so for predicting in vivo DOMD and ME where the sample population size was smaller. The spectral models derived deal equally well with WCW and WCB and Would he of considerable practical value allowing rapid determination of nutritive value of these forages before their use in diets of productive animals. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Seeds of change: The value of using Rhinanthus minor in grassland restoration

Question: What is the value of using Rhinanthus minor in grassland restoration and can restrictions on its establishment be overcome? Location: England (United Kingdom). Methods: Two experiments were established to determine the efficacy of inoculating R. minor on a suite of four agriculturally improved grasslands and the efficacy of using R. minor in grassland restoration. In Experiment 1, the effect of herbicide gap creation on the establishment and persistence of R. minor in grasslands ranging in productivity was investigated with respect to sward management. In Exp. 2, R. minor was sown at 1000 seeds/m(2) in conjunction with a standard meadow mix over a randomized plot design into Lolium perenne grassland of moderate productivity. The treatment of scarification was investigated as a treatment to promote R. minor. Results: Gap size had a significant role in the establishment and performance of R. minor, especially the 30 cm diameter gaps (Exp. 1). However, R. minor failed to establish long-term persistent populations in all of the agriculturally improved grasslands. In Exp. 2, establishment of R. minor was increased by scarification and its presence was associated with a significant increase in Shannon diversity and the number of sown and unsown species. Values of grass above-ground biomass were significantly lower in plots sown with R. minor, but values of total above-ground biomass (including R. minor) and forb biomass (not including R. minor) were not affected. Conclusions: The value of introducing R. minor into species-poor grassland to increase diversity has been demonstrated, but successful establishment was dependent on grassland type. The scope for using R. minor in grassland restoration schemes is therefore conditional, although establishment can be enhanced through disturbance such as sward scarification.

The impact of Rhinanthus minor in newly established meadows on a productive site

Question: What is the impact of the presence of Rhinanthus minor on forb abundance in newly established swards? Location: Wetherby, West Yorkshire, UK (53 degrees 55' N, 1 degrees 22(1) W). Method: A standard meadow mix containing six forbs and six grasses was sown on an ex-arable field and immediately over-sown using a randomised plot design with three densities of Rhinanthus minor (0, 600, and 1000 seeds per m(2)). Above-ground biomass was analysed over a period of three years, while detailed assessments of sward composition were performed during the first two years. Results: Values of grass biomass were reduced in the presence of Rhinanthus, especially at the higher sowing density. The ratio of grass: forb biomass was also lower in association with Rhinanthus, but only at the higher sowing density. The presence of Rhinanthus, had no effect on species number or diversity, which decreased between years regardless of treatment. Conclusions: Although not tested in a multi-site experiment, the benefit of introducing Rhinanthus into newly established swards to promote for abundance was determined. The efficacy of Rhinanthus presence is likely to depend on whether species not susceptible to the effects of parasitism are present.

Donepezil for the symptomatic treatment of patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease: a meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised controlled trials

Background: The objective was to evaluate the efficacy and tolerability of donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) compared with placebo in alleviating manifestations of mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). Method: A systematic review of individual patient data from Phase II and III double-blind, randomised, placebo-controlled studies of up to 24 weeks and completed by 20 December 1999. The main outcome measures were the ADAS-cog, the CIBIC-plus, and reports of adverse events. Results: A total of 2376 patients from ten trials were randomised to either donepezil 5 mg/day (n = 821), 10 mg/day (n = 662) or placebo (n = 893). Cognitive performance was better in patients receiving donepezil than in patients receiving placebo. At 12 weeks the differences in ADAS-cog scores were 5 mg/day-placebo: - 2.1 [95% confidence interval (CI), - 2.6 to - 1.6; p < 0.001], 10 mg/day-placebo: - 2.5 ( - 3.1 to - 2.0; p < 0.001). The corresponding results at 24 weeks were - 2.0 ( - 2.7 to - 1.3; p < 0.001) and - 3.1 ( - 3.9 to - 2.4; p < 0.001). The difference between the 5 and 10 mg/day doses was significant at 24 weeks (p = 0.005). The odds ratios (OR) of improvement on the CIBIC-plus at 12 weeks were: 5 mg/day-placebo 1.8 (1.5 to 2.1; p < 0.001), 10 mg/day-placebo 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p < 0.001). The corresponding values at 24 weeks were 1.9 (1.5 to 2.4; p = 0.001) and 2.1 (1.6 to 2.8; p < 0.001). Donepezil was well tolerated; adverse events were cholinergic in nature and generally of mild severity and brief in duration. Conclusion: Donepezil (5 and 10 mg/day) provides meaningful benefits in alleviating deficits in cognitive and clinician-rated global function in AD patients relative to placebo. Increased improvements in cognition were indicated for the higher dose. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Meta-analysis of individual patient data from randomised trials: a review of methods used in practice

Background: Meta-analyses based on individual patient data (IPD) are regarded as the gold standard for systematic reviews. However, the methods used for analysing and presenting results from IPD meta-analyses have received little discussion. Methods We review 44 IPD meta-analyses published during the years 1999–2001. We summarize whether they obtained all the data they sought, what types of approaches were used in the analysis, including assumptions of common or random effects, and how they examined the effects of covariates. Results: Twenty-four out of 44 analyses focused on time-to-event outcomes, and most analyses (28) estimated treatment effects within each trial and then combined the results assuming a common treatment effect across trials. Three analyses failed to stratify by trial, analysing the data is if they came from a single mega-trial. Only nine analyses used random effects methods. Covariate-treatment interactions were generally investigated by subgrouping patients. Seven of the meta-analyses included data from less than 80% of the randomized patients sought, but did not address the resulting potential biases. Conclusions: Although IPD meta-analyses have many advantages in assessing the effects of health care, there are several aspects that could be further developed to make fuller use of the potential of these time-consuming projects. In particular, IPD could be used to more fully investigate the influence of covariates on heterogeneity of treatment effects, both within and between trials. The impact of heterogeneity, or use of random effects, are seldom discussed. There is thus considerable scope for enhancing the methods of analysis and presentation of IPD meta-analysis.

Flavonoids inhibit the platelet TxA(2) signalling pathway and antagonize TxA(2) receptors (TP) in platelets and smooth muscle cells

What is already known about this subject center dot Flavonoids are largely recognized as potential inhibitors of platelet function, through nonspecific mechanisms such as antioxidant activity and/or inhibition of several enzymes and signalling proteins. center dot In addition, we, and few others, have shown that certain antiaggregant flavonoids may behave as specific TXA2 receptor (TP) ligands in platelets. center dot Whether flavonoids interact with TP isoforms in other cell types is not known, and direct evidence that flavonoid-TP interaction inhibits signalling downstream TP has not been shown. What this study adds center dot This study first demonstrates that certain flavonoids behave as ligands for both TP isoforms, not only in platelets, but also in human myometrium and in TP-transfected HEK 293T cells. center dot Differences in the effect of certain flavonoids in platelet signalling, induced by either U46619 or thrombin, suggest that abrogation of downstream TP signalling is related to their specific blockage of the TP, rather than to a nonspecific effect on tyrosine kinases or other signalling proteins. Flavonoids may affect platelet function by several mechanisms, including antagonism of TxA(2) receptors (TP). These TP are present in many tissues and modulate different signalling cascades. We explored whether flavonoids affect platelet TP signalling, and if they bind to TP expressed in other cell types. Platelets were treated with flavonoids, or other selected inhibitors, and then stimulated with U46619. Similar assays were performed in aspirinized platelets activated with thrombin. Effects on calcium release were analysed by fluorometry and changes in whole protein tyrosine phosphorylation and activation of ERK 1/2 by Western blot analysis. The binding of flavonoids to TP in platelets, human myometrium and TP alpha- and TP beta-transfected HEK 293T cells was explored using binding assays and the TP antagonist H-3-SQ29548. Apigenin, genistein, luteolin and quercetin impaired U46619-induced calcium mobilization in a concentration-dependent manner (IC50 10-30 mu M). These flavonoids caused a significant impairment of U46619-induced platelet tyrosine phosphorylation and of ERK 1/2 activation. By contrast, in aspirin-treated platelets all these flavonoids, except quercetin, displayed minor effects on thrombin-induced calcium mobilization, ERK 1/2 and total tyrosine phosphorylation. Finally, apigenin, genistein and luteolin inhibited by > 50% H-3-SQ29548 binding to different cell types. These data further suggest that flavonoids may inhibit platelet function by binding to TP and by subsequent abrogation of downstream signalling. Binding of these compounds to TP occurs in human myometrium and in TP-transfected HEK 293T cells and suggests that antagonism of TP might mediate the effects of flavonoids in different tissues.

Analysis of protein-protein interactions in the feline calicivirus replication complex

Caliciviruses are a major cause of gastroenteritis in humans and cause a wide variety of other diseases in animals. Here, the characterization of protein-protein interactions between the individual proteins of Feline calicivirus (FCV), a model system for other members of the family Caliciviridae, is reported. Using the yeast two-hybrid system combined with a number of other approaches, it is demonstrated that the p32 protein (the picornavirus 2B analogue) of FCV interacts with p39 (2C), p30 (3A) and p76 (3CD). The FCV protease/RNA polymerase (ProPol) p76 was found to form homo-oligomers, as well as to interact with VPg and ORF2, the region encoding the major capsid protein VP1. A weak interaction was also observed between p76 and the minor capsid protein encoded by ORF3 (VP2). ORF2 protein was found to interact with VPg, p76 and VP2. The potential roles of the interactions in calicivirus replication are discussed.

Genotypic and phenotypic diversity of a baculovirus population within an individual insect host

It is becoming increasingly apparent that many pathogen populations, including those of insects, show high levels of genotypic variation. Baculoviruses are known to be highly variable, with isolates collected from the same species in different geographical locations frequently showing genetic variation and differences in their biology. More recent Studies at smaller scales have also shown that virus DNA profiles from individual larvae can show polymorphisms within and between populations of the same species. Here, we investigate the genotypic and phenotypic variation of an insect baculovirus infection within a single insect host. Twenty four genotypically distinct nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) variants were isolated from an individual pine beauty moth, Panolis flammea, caterpillar by in vivo cloning techniques. No variant appeared to be dominant in the population. The Pafl NPV variants have been mapped using three restriction endonucleases and shown to contain three hypervariable regions containing insertions of 70-750 bp. Comparison of seven of these variants in an alternative host, Mamestra brassicae, demonstrated that the variants differed significantly in both pathogenicity and speed of kill. The generation and maintenance of pathogen heterogeneity are discussed. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Radon in homes and risk of lung cancer: collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 European case-control studies

Objective: To determine the risk of lung cancer associated with exposure at home to the radioactive disintegration products of naturally Occurring radon gas. Design: Collaborative analysis of individual data from 13 case-control studies of residential radon and lung cancer. Setting Nine European countries. Subjects 7148 cases Of lung cancer and 14 208 controls. Main outcome measures: Relative risks of lung cancer and radon gas concentrations in homes inhabited during the previous 5-34 years measured in becquerels (radon disintegrations per second) per cubic incite (Bq/m(3)) Of household air. Results: The mean measured radon concentration in homes of people in tire control group was 97 Bq/m(3), with 11% measuring > 200 and 4% measuring > 400 Bq/m(3). For cases of lung cancer the mean concentration was 104 Bq/m(3). The risk of lung cancer increased by 8.4% (95% confidence interval 3.0% to 15.8%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in measured radon (P = 0.0007). This corresponds to an increase of 16% (5% to 31%) per 100 Bq/m(3) increase in usual radon-that is, after correction for the dilution caused by random uncertainties in measuring radon concentrations. The dose-response relation seemed to be linear with no threshold and remained significant (P=0.04) in analyses limited to individuals from homes with measured radon < 200 Bq/m(3). The proportionate excess risk did not differ significantly with study, age, sex, or smoking. In the absence of other causes of death, the absolute risks of lung cancer by age 75 years at usual radon concentrations of 0, 100, and 400 Bq/m(3) would be about 0.4%, 0.5%, and 0.7%, respectively, for lifelong non-smokers, and about 25 times greater (10%, 12%, and 16%) for cigarette smokers. Conclusions: Collectively, though not separately, these studies show appreciable hazards from residential radon, particularly for smokers and recent ex-smokers, and indicate that it is responsible for about 2% of all deaths from cancer in Europe.