Twentieth-century global-mean sea-level rise: is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

On the spectra of certain integro-differential-delay problems with applications in neurodynamics

We investigate the spectrum of certain integro-differential-delay equations (IDDEs) which arise naturally within spatially distributed, nonlocal, pattern formation problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the relevant dispersion relations with the use of the Lambert function. As a particular application of this approach, we consider the case of the Amari delay neural field equation which describes the local activity of a population of neurons taking into consideration the finite propagation speed of the electric signal. We show that if the kernel appearing in this equation is symmetric around some point a= 0 or consists of a sum of such terms, then the relevant dispersion relation yields spectra with an infinite number of branches, as opposed to finite sets of eigenvalues considered in previous works. Also, in earlier works the focus has been on the most rightward part of the spectrum and the possibility of an instability driven pattern formation. Here, we numerically survey the structure of the entire spectra and argue that a detailed knowledge of this structure is important within neurodynamical applications. Indeed, the Amari IDDE acts as a filter with the ability to recognise and respond whenever it is excited in such a way so as to resonate with one of its rightward modes, thereby amplifying such inputs and dampening others. Finally, we discuss how these results can be generalised to the case of systems of IDDEs.

Separating the dynamical effects of climate change and ozone depletion. Part I: Southern Hemisphere stratosphere

A version of the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model that is coupled to an ocean is used to investigate the separate effects of climate change and ozone depletion on the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere. This is achieved by performing three sets of simulations extending from 1960 to 2099: 1) greenhouse gases (GHGs) fixed at 1960 levels and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) varying in time, 2) ODSs fixed at 1960 levels and GHGs varying in time, and 3) both GHGs and ODSs varying in time. The response of various dynamical quantities to theGHGand ODS forcings is shown to be additive; that is, trends computed from the sum of the first two simulations are equal to trends from the third. Additivity is shown to hold for the zonal mean zonal wind and temperature, the mass flux into and out of the stratosphere, and the latitudinally averaged wave drag in SH spring and summer, as well as for final warming dates. Ozone depletion and recovery causes seasonal changes in lower-stratosphere mass flux, with reduced polar downwelling in the past followed by increased downwelling in the future in SH spring, and the reverse in SH summer. These seasonal changes are attributed to changes in wave drag caused by ozone-induced changes in the zonal mean zonal winds. Climate change, on the other hand, causes a steady decrease in wave drag during SH spring, which delays the breakdown of the vortex, resulting in increased wave drag in summer

Hierarchical modeling of entangled polymers

We demonstrate that it is possible to link multi-chain molecular dynamics simulations with the tube model using a single chain slip-links model as a bridge. This hierarchical approach allows significant speed up of simulations, permitting us to span the time scales relevant for a comparison with the tube theory. Fitting the mean-square displacement of individual monomers in molecular dynamics simulations with the slip-spring model, we show that it is possible to predict the stress relaxation. Then, we analyze the stress relaxation from slip-spring simulations in the framework of the tube theory. In the absence of constraint release, we establish that the relaxation modulus can be decomposed as the sum of contributions from fast and longitudinal Rouse modes, and tube survival. Finally, we discuss some open questions regarding possible future directions that could be profitable in rendering the tube model quantitative, even for mildly entangled polymers

The analysis of ranked observations of soil structure using indicator geostatistics

Structure is an important physical feature of the soil that is associated with water movement, the soil atmosphere, microorganism activity and nutrient uptake. A soil without any obvious organisation of its components is known as apedal and this state can have marked effects on several soil processes. Accurate maps of topsoil and subsoil structure are desirable for a wide range of models that aim to predict erosion, solute transport, or flow of water through the soil. Also such maps would be useful to precision farmers when deciding how to apply nutrients and pesticides in a site-specific way, and to target subsoiling and soil structure stabilization procedures. Typically, soil structure is inferred from bulk density or penetrometer resistance measurements and more recently from soil resistivity and conductivity surveys. To measure the former is both time-consuming and costly, whereas observations made by the latter methods can be made automatically and swiftly using a vehicle-mounted penetrometer or resistivity and conductivity sensors. The results of each of these methods, however, are affected by other soil properties, in particular moisture content at the time of sampling, texture, and the presence of stones. Traditional methods of observing soil structure identify the type of ped and its degree of development. Methods of ranking such observations from good to poor for different soil textures have been developed. Indicator variograms can be computed for each category or rank of structure and these can be summed to give the sum of indicator variograms (SIV). Observations of the topsoil and subsoil structure were made at four field sites where the soil had developed on different parent materials. The observations were ranked by four methods and indicator and the sum of indicator variograms were computed and modelled for each method of ranking. The individual indicators were then kriged with the parameters of the appropriate indicator variogram model to map the probability of encountering soil with the structure represented by that indicator. The model parameters of the SIVs for each ranking system were used with the data to krige the soil structure classes, and the results are compared with those for the individual indicators. The relations between maps of soil structure and selected wavebands from aerial photographs are examined as basis for planning surveys of soil structure. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Moving towards a more mechanistic approach in the determination of soil heat flux from remote measurements - II. Diurnal shape of soil heat flux

For vegetated surfaces, calculation of soil heat flux, G, with the Exact or Analytical method requires a harmonic analysis of below-canopy soil surface temperature, to obtain the shape of the diurnal course of G. When determining G with remote sensing methods, only composite (vegetation plus soil) radiometric brightness temperature is available. This paper presents a simple equation that relates the sum of the harmonic terms derived for the composite radiometric surface temperature to that of belowcanopy soil surface temperature. The thermal inertia, Gamma(,) for which a simple equation has been presented in a companion paper, paper I, is used to set the magnitude of G. To assess the success of the method proposed in this paper for the estimation of the diurnal shape of G, a comparison was made between 'remote' and in situ calculated values from described field sites. This indicated that the proposed method was suitable for the estimation of the shape of G for a variety of vegetation types and densities. The approach outlined in paper I, to obtain Gamma, was then combined with the estimated harmonic terms to predict estimates of G, which were compared to values predicted by empirical remote methods found in the literature. This indicated that the method proposed in the combination of papers I and II gave reliable estimates of G, which, in comparison to the other methods, resulted in more realistic predictions for vegetated surfaces. This set of equations can also be used for bare and sparsely vegetated soils, making it a universally applicable method. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mineral and geochemical characterization of a leptic aluandic soil and a thapto aluandic-ferralsol developed on trachytes in Mount Bambouto (Cameroon volcanic line)

Mineral and geochemical investigations were carried out on soil samples and fresh rock (trachytes) from two selected soil profiles (TM profile on leptic aluandic soils and TL profile on thapto aluandic-ferralsols) from Mount Bambouto to better understand geochemical processes and mineral paragenesis involved in the development of soils in this environment. In TM profile, the hydrated halloysites and goethite occur in the weathered saprolite boulders of BC horizon while dehydrated halloysite, gibbsite and goethite dominate the soils matrices of BC and A horizons. In TL profile, the dehydrated halloysites and goethite are the most abundant secondary minerals in the weathered saprolites of C and BC horizons while gibbsite, hematite and kaolinite occur in the soil matrices of BC, B and A horizons. The highest gibbsite content is in the platy nodules of B horizon. In both soil profiles, organo-metal complexes (most likely of AI and Fe) are present in the surface A horizon. Geochemically, between the fresh rock and the weathered saprolites in both soils, SiO2, K2O, CaO, Na2O and MgO contents decrease strongly while Fe2O3 and Al2O3 tend to accumulate. The molar ratio of SiO2/Al2O3 (Ki) and the sum of Ca, Mg, K and Na ions (TRB) also decreases abruptly between fresh rocks and the weathered saprolites, but increases significantly at the soil surface. The TM profile shows intense Al enrichment whereas the TL profile highlights enrichment in both AI and Fe as the weathering progresses upwards. Both soil profiles are enriched in Ni, Cu, Ba and Co and depleted in U, Th, Ta, Hf, Y, Sr, Pb, Zr and Zn relative to fresh rock. They also show a relatively low fractionation of the rare earth elements (REE: La, Nd, Sm, Eu, Tb, Yb and Lu), except for Ce which tends to be enriched in soils compared to CI chondrite. All these results give evidence of intense hydrolysis at soil deep in Mount Bambouto resulting in the formation of halloysite which progressively transforms into gibbsite and/or dehydrated halloysite. At the soil surface, the prominent pedogenetic process refers to andosolization with formation of organo-metal complexes. In TL profile, the presence of kaolinite in soil matrices BC and B horizons is consistent with ferralitization at soil deep. In conclusion, soil forming processes in Mount Bambouto are strongly influenced by local climate: (i) in the upper mountain (>2000 m), the fresh, misty and humid climate favors andosolization; whereas (ii) in the middle lands (1700-2000 m) with a relatively dry climate, both andosolization at the soil surface and ferralitization at soil deep act together. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The potential for the use of agent-based models in ecotoxicology

This chapter introduces ABMs, their construction, and the pros and cons of their use. Although relatively new, agent-basedmodels (ABMs) have great potential for use in ecotoxicological research – their primary advantage being the realistic simulations that can be constructed and particularly their explicit handling of space and time in simulations. Examples are provided of their use in ecotoxicology primarily exemplified by different implementations of the ALMaSS system. These examples presented demonstrate how multiple stressors, landscape structure, details regarding toxicology, animal behavior, and socioeconomic effects can and should be taken into account when constructing simulations for risk assessment. Like ecological systems, in ABMs the behavior at the system level is not simply the mean of the component responses, but the sum of the often nonlinear interactions between components in the system; hence this modeling approach opens the door to implementing and testing much more realistic and holistic ecotoxicological models than are currently used.

The use of image analysis to estimate population growth rate in Daphnia magna

1. Population growth rate (PGR) is central to the theory of population ecology and is crucial for projecting population trends in conservation biology, pest management and wildlife harvesting. Furthermore, PGR is increasingly used to assess the effects of stressors. Image analysis that can automatically count and measure photographed individuals offers a potential methodology for estimating PGR. 2. This study evaluated two ways in which the PGR of Daphnia magna, exposed to different stressors, can be estimated using an image analysis system. The first method estimated PGR as the ratio of counts of individuals obtained at two different times, while the second method estimated PGR as the ratio of population sizes at two different times, where size is measured by the sum of the individuals' surface areas, i.e. total population surface area. This method is attractive if surface area is correlated with reproductive value (RV), as it is for D. magna, because of the theoretical result that PGR is the rate at which the population RV increases. 3. The image analysis system proved reliable and reproducible in counting populations of up to 440 individuals in 5 L of water. Image counts correlated well with manual counts but with a systematic underestimate of about 30%. This does not affect accuracy when estimating PGR as the ratio of two counts. Area estimates of PGR correlated well with count estimates, but were systematically higher, possibly reflecting their greater accuracy in the study situation. 4. Analysis of relevant scenarios suggested the correlation between RV and body size will generally be good for organisms in which fecundity correlates with body size. In these circumstances, area estimation of PGR is theoretically better than count estimation. 5. Synthesis and applications. There are both theoretical and practical advantages to area estimation of population growth rate when individuals' reproductive values are consistently well correlated with their surface areas. Because stressors may affect both the number and quality of individuals, area estimation of population growth rate should improve the accuracy of predicting stress impacts at the population level.

Detection of frailty in Weibull lifetime data using Outlier tests

Heterogeneity in lifetime data may be modelled by multiplying an individual's hazard by an unobserved frailty. We test for the presence of frailty of this kind in univariate and bivariate data with Weibull distributed lifetimes, using statistics based on the ordered Cox-Snell residuals from the null model of no frailty. The form of the statistics is suggested by outlier testing in the gamma distribution. We find through simulation that the sum of the k largest or k smallest order statistics, for suitably chosen k , provides a powerful test when the frailty distribution is assumed to be gamma or positive stable, respectively. We provide recommended values of k for sample sizes up to 100 and simple formulae for estimated critical values for tests at the 5% level.

Hydroponic isotope labelling of entire plants (HILEP) for quantitative plant proteomics; an oxidative stress case study

Hydroponic isotope labelling of entire plants (HILEP) is a cost-effective method enabling metabolic labelling of whole and mature plants with a stable isotope such as N-15. By utilising hydroponic media that contain N-15 inorganic salts as the sole nitrogen source, near to 100% N-15-labelling of proteins can be achieved. In this study, it is shown that HILEP, in combination with mass spectrometry, is suitable for relative protein quantitation of seven week-old Arabidopsis plants submitted to oxidative stress. Protein extracts from pooled N-14- and N-15-hydroponically grown plants were fractionated by SDS-PAGE, digested and analysed by liquid chromatography electrospray ionisation tandem mass spectrometry (LC-ESI-MS/MS). Proteins were identified and the spectra of N-14/N-15 peptide pairs were extracted using their m/z chromatographic retention time, isotopic distributions, and the m/z difference between the N-14 and N-15 peptides. Relative amounts were calculated as the ratio of the sum of the peak areas of the two distinct N-14 and N-15 peptide isotope envelopes. Using Mascot and the open source trans-proteomic pipeline (TPP), the data processing was automated for global proteome quantitation down to the isoform level by extracting isoform specific peptides. With this combination of metabolic labelling and mass spectrometry it was possible to show differential protein expression in the apoplast of plants submitted to oxidative stress. Moreover, it was possible to discriminate between differentially expressed isoforms belonging to the same protein family, such as isoforms of xylanases and pathogen-related glucanases (PR 2). (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

LIPGENE food-exchange model for alteration of dietary fat quantity and quality in free-living participants from eight European countries

Controlled human intervention trials are required to confirm the hypothesis that dietary fat quality may influence insulin action. The aim was to develop a food-exchange model, suitable for use in free-living volunteers, to investigate the effects of four experimental diets distinct in fat quantity and quality: high SFA (HSFA); high MUFA (HMUFA) and two low-fat (LF) diets, one supplemented with 1.24g EPA and DHA/d (LFn-3). A theoretical food-exchange model was developed. The average quantity of exchangeable fat was calculated as the sum of fat provided by added fats (spreads and oils), milk, cheese, biscuits, cakes, buns and pastries using data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey of UK adults. Most of the exchangeable fat was replaced by specifically designed study foods. Also critical to the model was the use of carbohydrate exchanges to ensure the diets were isoenergetic. Volunteers from eight centres across Europe completed the dietary intervention. Results indicated that compositional targets were largely achieved with significant differences in fat quantity between the high-fat diets (39.9 (SEM 0.6) and 38.9 (SEM 0.51) percentage energy (%E) from fat for the HSFA and HMUFA diets respectively) and the low-fat diets (29.6 (SEM 0.6) and 29.1 (SEM 0.5) %E from fat for the LF and LFn-3 diets respectively) and fat quality (17.5 (SEM 0.3) and 10.4 (SEM 0.2) %E front SFA and 12.7 (SEM 0.3) and 18.7 (SEM 0.4) %E MUFA for the HSFA and HMUFA diets respectively). In conclusion, a robust, flexible food-exchange model was developed and implemented successfully in the LIPGENE dietary intervention trial.

Profiling of composition and metabolic activities of the colonic microflora of growing pigs fed diets supplemented with prebiotic oligosaccharides

It is evident that quantitative information on different microbial groups and their contribution in terms of activity in the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of humans and animals is required in order to formulate functional diets targeting improved gut function and host health. In this work, quantitative information on levels and spatial distributions of Bacteroides spp, Eubacterium spp, Clostridium spp, Escherichia coli, Bifidobacterium spp and Lactobacillus/Enterococcus spp. along the porcine large intestine was investigated using 16S rRNA targeted probes and fluorescent in situ hybridisation (FISH). Caecum, ascending colon (AC) and rectum luminal digesta from three groups of individually housed growing pigs fed either a corn-soybean basal diet (CON diet) or a prebiotic diet containing 10 g/kg oligofructose (FOS diet) or trans-galactooligosaccharides (TOS diet) at the expense of cornstarch were analysed. DAPI staining was used to enumerate total number of cells in the samples. Populations of total cells, Bacteroides, Eubacterium, Clostridium and Bifidobacterium, declined significantly (P < 0.05) from caecum to rectum, and were not affected by dietary treatments. Populations of Lactobacillus/ Enterococcus and E coli did not differ throughout the large intestine. The relative percent (%) contribution of each bacterial group to the total cell count did not differ between caecum and rectum, with the exception of Eubacterium that was higher in the AC digesta. FISH analysis showed that the sum of all bacterial groups made up a small percentage of the total cells, which was 12.4%, 21.8% and 10.3% in caecum, AC and rectum, respectively. This supports the view that in swine, the diversity of GI microflora might be higher compared to other species. In terms of microflora metabolic activity, the substantially higher numerical trends seen in FOS and TOS treatments regarding total volatile fatty acid, acetate concentrations and glycolytic activities, it could be postulated that FOS and TOS promoted saccharolytic activities in the porcine colon. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.