Multiple-scattering in radar systems: a review

Although extensively studied within the lidar community, the multiple scattering phenomenon has always been considered a rare curiosity by radar meteorologists. Up to few years ago its appearance has only been associated with two- or three-body-scattering features (e.g. hail flares and mirror images) involving highly reflective surfaces. Recent atmospheric research aimed at better understanding of the water cycle and the role played by clouds and precipitation in affecting the Earth's climate has driven the deployment of high frequency radars in space. Examples are the TRMM 13.5 GHz, the CloudSat 94 GHz, the upcoming EarthCARE 94 GHz, and the GPM dual 13-35 GHz radars. These systems are able to detect the vertical distribution of hydrometeors and thus provide crucial feedbacks for radiation and climate studies. The shift towards higher frequencies increases the sensitivity to hydrometeors, improves the spatial resolution and reduces the size and weight of the radar systems. On the other hand, higher frequency radars are affected by stronger extinction, especially in the presence of large precipitating particles (e.g. raindrops or hail particles), which may eventually drive the signal below the minimum detection threshold. In such circumstances the interpretation of the radar equation via the single scattering approximation may be problematic. Errors will be large when the radiation emitted from the radar after interacting more than once with the medium still contributes substantially to the received power. This is the case if the transport mean-free-path becomes comparable with the instrument footprint (determined by the antenna beam-width and the platform altitude). This situation resembles to what has already been experienced in lidar observations, but with a predominance of wide- versus small-angle scattering events. At millimeter wavelengths, hydrometeors diffuse radiation rather isotropically compared to the visible or near infrared region where scattering is predominantly in the forward direction. A complete understanding of radiation transport modeling and data analysis methods under wide-angle multiple scattering conditions is mandatory for a correct interpretation of echoes observed by space-borne millimeter radars. This paper reviews the status of research in this field. Different numerical techniques currently implemented to account for higher order scattering are reviewed and their weaknesses and strengths highlighted. Examples of simulated radar backscattering profiles are provided with particular emphasis given to situations in which the multiple scattering contributions become comparable or overwhelm the single scattering signal. We show evidences of multiple scattering effects from air-borne and from CloudSat observations, i.e. unique signatures which cannot be explained by single scattering theory. Ideas how to identify and tackle the multiple scattering effects are discussed. Finally perspectives and suggestions for future work are outlined. This work represents a reference-guide for studies focused at modeling the radiation transport and at interpreting data from high frequency space-borne radar systems that probe highly opaque scattering media such as thick ice clouds or precipitating clouds.

Standards of university teaching

A set of standards is proposed for university teaching. Embedding these within the Higher Education Academy UK Professional Standards Framework (UKPSF) would allow a more robust assessment of whether a university teacher has met a minimum acceptable threshold.

Threshold effects in price transmission: The case of Brazilian wheat, maize, and soya prices

Recent studies into price transmission have recognized the important role played by transport and transaction costs. Threshold models are one approach to accommodate such costs. We develop a generalized Threshold Error Correction Model to test for the presence and form of threshold behavior in price transmission that is symmetric around equilibrium. We use monthly wheat, maize, and soya prices from the United States, Argentina, and Brazil to demonstrate this model. Classical estimation of these generalized models can present challenges but Bayesian techniques avoid many of these problems. Evidence for thresholds is found in three of the five commodity price pairs investigated.

Landscape gene flow, coexistence and threshold effect: The case of genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (Brassica napus)

Globally there have been a number of concerns about the development of genetically modified crops many of which relate to the implications of gene flow at various levels. In Europe these concerns have led the European Union (EU) to promote the concept of 'coexistence' to allow the freedom to plant conventional and genetically modified (GM) varieties but to minimise the presence of transgenic material within conventional crops. Should a premium for non-GM varieties emerge on the market, the presence of transgenes would generate a 'negative externality' to conventional growers. The establishment of maximum tolerance level for the adventitious presence of GM material in conventional crops produces a threshold effect in the external costs. The existing literature suggests that apart from the biological characteristics of the plant under consideration (e.g. self-pollination rates, entomophilous species, anemophilous species, etc.), gene flow at the landscape level is affected by the relative size of the source and sink populations and the spatial arrangement of the fields in the landscape. In this paper, we take genetically modified herbicide tolerant oilseed rape (GM HT OSR) as a model crop. Starting from an individual pollen dispersal function, we develop a spatially explicit numerical model in order to assess the effect of the size of the source/sink populations and the degree of spatial aggregation on the extent of gene flow into conventional OSR varieties under two alternative settings. We find that when the transgene presence in conventional produce is detected at the field level, the external cost will increase with the size of the source area and with the level of spatial disaggregation. on the other hand when the transgene presence is averaged among all conventional fields in the landscape (e.g. because of grain mixing before detection), the external cost will only depend on the relative size of the source area. The model could readily be incorporated into an economic evaluation of policies to regulate adoption of GM HT OSR. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Was UV spectral solar irradiance lower during the recent low sunspot minimum?

A detailed analysis is presented of solar UV spectral irradiance for the period between May 2003 and August 2005, when data are available from both the Solar Ultraviolet pectral Irradiance Monitor (SUSIM) instrument (on board the pper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) spacecraft) and the Solar Stellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) instrument (on board the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite). The ultimate aim is to develop a data composite that can be used to accurately determine any differences between the “exceptional” solar minimum at the end of solar cycle 23 and the previous minimum at the end of solar cycle 22 without having to rely on proxy data to set the long‐term change. SUSIM data are studied because they are the only data available in the “SOLSTICE gap” between the end of available UARS SOLSTICE data and the start of the SORCE data. At any one wavelength the two data sets are considered too dissimilar to be combined into a meaningful composite if any one of three correlations does not exceed a threshold of 0.8. This criterion removes all wavelengths except those in a small range between 156 nm and 208 nm, the longer wavelengths of which influence ozone production and heating in the lower stratosphere. Eight different methods are employed to intercalibrate the two data sequences. All methods give smaller changes between the minima than are seen when the data are not adjusted; however, correcting the SUSIM data to allow for an exponentially decaying offset drift gives a composite that is largely consistent with the unadjusted data from the SOLSTICE instruments on both UARS and SORCE and in which the recent minimum is consistently lower in the wave band studied.

Bayesian estimation of the double hurdle model in the presence of fixed costs

We present a model of market participation in which the presence of non-negligible fixed costs leads to random censoring of the traditional double-hurdle model. Fixed costs arise when household resources must be devoted a priori to the decision to participate in the market. These costs, usually of time, are manifested in non-negligible minimum-efficient supplies and supply correspondence that requires modification of the traditional Tobit regression. The costs also complicate econometric estimation of household behavior. These complications are overcome by application of the Gibbs sampler. The algorithm thus derived provides robust estimates of the fixed-costs, double-hurdle model. The model and procedures are demonstrated in an application to milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands.

Land/sea warming ratio in response to climate change: IPCC AR4 model results and comparison with observations

Climate model simulations consistently show that in response to greenhouse gas forcing surface temperatures over land increase more rapidly than over sea. The enhanced warming over land is not simply a transient effect, since it is also present in equilibrium conditions. We examine 20 models from the IPCC AR4 database. The global land/sea warming ratio varies in the range 1.36–1.84, independent of global mean temperature change. In the presence of increasing radiative forcing, the warming ratio for a single model is fairly constant in time, implying that the land/sea temperature difference increases with time. The warming ratio varies with latitude, with a minimum in equatorial latitudes, and maxima in the subtropics. A simple explanation for these findings is provided, and comparisons are made with observations. For the low-latitude (40°S–40°N) mean, the models suggest a warming ratio of 1.51 ± 0.13, while recent observations suggest a ratio of 1.54 ± 0.09.

Life-cycle simulations of shallow frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain

The life-cycle of shallow frontal waves and the impact of deformation strain on their development is investigated using the idealised version of the Met Office non-hydrostatic Unified Model which includes the same physics and dynamics as the operational forecast model. Frontal wave development occurs in two stages; first, a deformation strain is applied to a front and a positive potential vorticity (PV) strip forms, generated by latent heat release in the frontal updraft; second, as the deformation strain is reduced the PV strip breaks up into individual anomalies. The circulations associated with the PV anomalies cause shallow frontal waves to form. The structure of the simulated frontal waves is consistent with the conceptual model of a frontal cyclone. Deeper frontal waves are simulated if the stability of the atmosphere is reduced. Deformation strain rates of different strengths are applied to the PV strip to determine whether a deformation strain threshold exists above which frontal wave development is suppressed. An objective method of frontal wave activity is defined and frontal wave development was found to be suppressed by deformation strain rates $\ge 0.4\times10^{-5}\mbox{s}^{-1}$. This value compares well with observed deformation strain rate thresholds and the analytical solution for the minimum deformation strain rate needed to suppress barotropic frontal wave development. The deformation strain rate threshold is dependent on the strength of the PV strip with strong PV strips able to overcome stronger deformation strain rates (leading to frontal wave development) than weaker PV strips.

Implicit learning: Below the subjective threshold?

In this review, we consider three possible criteria by which knowledge might be regarded as implicit or inaccessible: It might be implicit only in the sense that it is difficult to articulate freely, or it might be implicit according to either an objective threshold or a subjective threshold. We evaluate evidence for these criteria in relation to artificial grammar learning, the control of complex systems, and sequence learning, respectively. We argue that the convincing evidence is not yet in, but construing the implicit nature of implicit learning in terms of a subjective threshold is most likely to prove fruitful for future research. Furthermore, the subjective threshold criterion may demarcate qualitatively different types of knowledge. We argue that (1) implicit, rather than explicit, knowledge is often relatively inflexible in transfer to different domains, (2) implicit, rather than explicit, learning occurs when attention is focused on specific items and not underlying rules, and (3) implicit learning and the resulting knowledge are often relatively robust.

The omega equation and potential vorticity

Two fundamental perspectives on the dynamics of midlatitude weather systems are provided by potential vorticity (PV) and the omega equation. The aim of this paper is to investigate the link between the two perspectives, which has so far received very little attention in the meteorological literature. It also aims to give a quantitative basis for discussion of quasi-geostrophic vertical motion in terms of components associated with system movement, maintaining a constant thermal structure, and with the development of that structure. The former links with the isentropic relative-flow analysis technique. Viewed in a moving frame of reference, the measured development of a system depends on the velocity of that frame of reference. The requirement that the development should be a minimum provides a quantitative method for determining the optimum system velocity. The component of vertical velocity associated with development is shown to satisfy an omega equation with forcing determined from the relative advection of interior PV and boundary temperature. The analysis carries through in the presence of diabatic heating provided the omega equation forcing is based on the interior PV and boundary thermal tendencies, including the heating effect. The analysis is shown to be possible also at the level of the semi-geostrophic approximation. The analysis technique is applied to a number of idealized problems that can be considered to be building blocks for midlatitude synoptic-scale dynamics. They focus on the influences of interior PV, boundary temperature, an interior boundary, baroclinic instability associated with two boundaries, and also diabatic heating. In each case, insights yielded by the new perspective are sought into the dynamical behaviour, especially that related to vertical motion. Copyright © 2003 Royal Meteorological Society

Galactic cosmic ray hazard in the unusual extended solar minimum between solar cycle 23 and 24

Galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) are extremely difficult to shield against and pose one of the most severe long-term hazards for human exploration of space. The recent solar minimum between solar cycles 23 and 24 shows a prolonged period of reduced solar activity and low interplanetary magnetic field strengths. As a result, the modulation of GCRs is very weak, and the fluxes of GCRs are near their highest levels in the last 25 years in the fall of 2009. Here we explore the dose rates of GCRs in the current prolonged solar minimum and make predictions for the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Cosmic Ray Telescope for the Effects of Radiation (CRaTER), which is now measuring GCRs in the lunar environment. Our results confirm the weak modulation of GCRs leading to the largest dose rates seen in the last 25 years over a prolonged period of little solar activity.

Solar change and climate: an update in the light of the current exceptional solar minimum

Solar outputs during the current solar minimum are setting record low values for the space age. Evidence is here reviewed that this is part of a decline in solar activity from a grand solar maximum and that the Sun has returned to a state that last prevailed in 1924. Recent research into what this means, and does not mean, for climate change is reviewed.