Correlated observation errors in data assimilation

Data assimilation provides techniques for combining observations and prior model forecasts to create initial conditions for numerical weather prediction (NWP). The relative weighting assigned to each observation in the analysis is determined by its associated error. Remote sensing data usually has correlated errors, but the correlations are typically ignored in NWP. Here, we describe three approaches to the treatment of observation error correlations. For an idealized data set, the information content under each simplified assumption is compared with that under correct correlation specification. Treating the errors as uncorrelated results in a significant loss of information. However, retention of an approximated correlation gives clear benefits.

Deforming glassy polystyrene: Influence of pressure, thermal history, and deformation mode on yielding and hardening

The toughness of a polymer glass is determined by the interplay of yielding, strain softening, and strain hardening. Molecular-dynamics simulations of a typical polymer glass, atactic polystyrene, under the influence of active deformation have been carried out to enlighten these processes. It is observed that the dominant interaction for the yield peak is of interchain nature and for the strain hardening of intrachain nature. A connection is made with the microscopic cage-to-cage motion. It is found that the deformation does not lead to complete erasure of the thermal history but that differences persist at large length scales. Also we find that the strain-hardening modulus increases with increasing external pressure. This new observation cannot be explained by current theories such as the one based on the entanglement picture and the inclusion of this effect will lead to an improvement in constitutive modeling.

Microscopic Mechanisms of Strain Hardening in Glassy Polymers

The mechanisms underlying the increase in stress for large mechanical strains of a polymer glass, quantified by the strain-hardening modulus, are still poorly understood. In the present paper we aim to elucidate this matter and present new mechanisms. Molecular-dynamics simulations of two polymers with very different strain-hardening moduli (polycarbonate and polystyrene) have been carried out. Nonaffine displacements occur because of steric hindrances and connectivity constraints. We argue that it is not necessary to introduce the concept of entanglements to understand strain hardening, but that hardening is rather coupled with the increase in the rate of nonaffine particle displacements. This rate increases faster for polycarbonate, which has the higher strain-hardening modulus. Also more nonaffine chain stretching is present for polycarbonate. It is shown that the inner distances of such a nonaffinely deformed chain can be well described by the inner distances of the worm-like chain, but with an effective stiffness length (equal to the Kuhn length for an infinite worm-like chain) that increases during deformation. It originates from the finite extensibility of the chain. In this way the increase in nonaffine particle displacement can be understood as resulting from an increase in the effective stiffness length of the perturbed chain during deformation, so that at larger strains a higher rate of plastic events in terms of nonaffine displacement is necessary, causing in turn the observed strain hardening in polymer glasses.

A cost-effective high-throughput digital system for observation and acquisition of animal behavioral data

We have designed and implemented a low-cost digital system using closed-circuit television cameras coupled to a digital acquisition system for the recording of in vivo behavioral data in rodents and for allowing observation and recording of more than 10 animals simultaneously at a reduced cost, as compared with commercially available solutions. This system has been validated using two experimental rodent models: one involving chemically induced seizures and one assessing appetite and feeding. We present observational results showing comparable or improved levels of accuracy and observer consistency between this new system and traditional methods in these experimental models, discuss advantages of the presented system over conventional analog systems and commercially available digital systems, and propose possible extensions to the system and applications to nonrodent studies.

The use of earth observation techniques to improve catchment-scale pollution predictions

Remote sensing can potentially provide information useful in improving pollution transport modelling in agricultural catchments. Realisation of this potential will depend on the availability of the raw data, development of information extraction techniques, and the impact of the assimilation of the derived information into models. High spatial resolution hyperspectral imagery of a farm near Hereford, UK is analysed. A technique is described to automatically identify the soil and vegetation endmembers within a field, enabling vegetation fractional cover estimation. The aerially-acquired laser altimetry is used to produce digital elevation models of the site. At the subfield scale the hypothesis that higher resolution topography will make a substantial difference to contaminant transport is tested using the AGricultural Non-Point Source (AGNPS) model. Slope aspect and direction information are extracted from the topography at different resolutions to study the effects on soil erosion, deposition, runoff and nutrient losses. Field-scale models are often used to model drainage water, nitrate and runoff/sediment loss, but the demanding input data requirements make scaling up to catchment level difficult. By determining the input range of spatial variables gathered from EO data, and comparing the response of models to the range of variation measured, the critical model inputs can be identified. Response surfaces to variation in these inputs constrain uncertainty in model predictions and are presented. Although optical earth observation analysis can provide fractional vegetation cover, cloud cover and semi-random weather patterns can hinder data acquisition in Northern Europe. A Spring and Autumn cloud cover analysis is carried out over seven UK sites close to agricultural districts, using historic satellite image metadata, climate modelling and historic ground weather observations. Results are assessed in terms of probability of acquisition probability and implications for future earth observation missions. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I. Observation and modelling

In this study, the oceanic regions that are associated with anomalous Ethiopian summer rains were identified and the teleconnection mechanisms that give rise to these associations have been investigated. Because of the complexities of rainfall climate in the horn of Africa, Ethiopia has been subdivided into six homogeneous rainfall zones and the influence of SST anomalies was analysed separately for each zone. The investigation made use of composite analysis and modelling experiments. Two sets of composites of atmospheric fields were generated, one based on excess/deficit rainfall anomalies and the other based on warm/cold SST anomalies in specific oceanic regions. The aim of the composite analysis was to determine the link between SST and rainfall in terms of large scale features. The modelling experiments were intended to explore the causality of these linkage. The results show that the equatorial Pacific, the midlatitude northwest Pacific and the Gulf of Guinea all exert an influence on the summer rainfall in various part of the country. The results demonstrate that different mechanisms linked to sea surface temperature control variations in rainfall in different parts of Ethiopia. This has important consequences for seasonal forecasting models which are based on statistical correlations between SST and seasonal rainfall totals. It is clear that such statistical models should take account of the local variations in teleconnections.