Why high seed densities within buried mesh bags may overestimate depletion rates of soil seed banks

1. Estimates of seed bank depletion rates are essential for modelling and management of plant populations. The seed bag burial method is often used to measure seed mortality in the soil. However, the density of seeds within seed bags is higher than densities in natural seed banks, which may elevate levels of pathogens and influence seed mortality. The aim of this study was to quantify the effects of fungi and seed density within buried mesh bags on the mortality of seeds. Striga hermonthica was chosen as the study species because it has been widely studied but different methods for measuring seed mortality in the soil have yielded contradictory estimates. 2. Seed bags were buried in soil and exhumed at regular time intervals to monitor mortality of the seeds in three field experiments during two rainy seasons. The effect of fungal activity on seed mortality was evaluated in a fungi exclusion experiment. Differences in seed-to-seed interaction were obtained by using two and four densities within the seed bags in consecutive years. Densities were created by mixing 1000 seeds with 0, 10, 100 or 1000 g of coarse sand. 3. The mortality rate was significantly lower when fungi were excluded, indicating the possible role of pathogenic fungi. 4. Decreasing the density of seeds in bags significantly reduced seed mortality, most probably because of decreased seed-to-seed contamination by pathogenic fungi. 5. Synthesis and applications. Models of plant populations in general and annual weeds in particular often use values from the literature for seed bank depletion rates. These depletion rates have often been estimated by the seed bag burial method, yet seed density within seed bags may be unrealistically high. Consequently, estimates of seed mortality rates may be too high because of an overestimation of the effects of soil or seed-borne pathogens. Species that have been classified from such studies as having short-lived seed banks may need to be re-assessed using realistic densities either within seed bags or otherwise. Similarly, models of seed bank dynamics based on such overestimated depletion rates may lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the seed banks and, perhaps, the management of weeds and rare species.

A concept of approximated densities for efficient nonlinear estimation

This paper presents the theoretical development of a nonlinear adaptive filter based on a concept of filtering by approximated densities (FAD). The most common procedures for nonlinear estimation apply the extended Kalman filter. As opposed to conventional techniques, the proposed recursive algorithm does not require any linearisation. The prediction uses a maximum entropy principle subject to constraints. Thus, the densities created are of an exponential type and depend on a finite number of parameters. The filtering yields recursive equations involving these parameters. The update applies the Bayes theorem. Through simulation on a generic exponential model, the proposed nonlinear filter is implemented and the results prove to be superior to that of the extended Kalman filter and a class of nonlinear filters based on partitioning algorithms.

Motion estimation through approximated densities

Many techniques are currently used for motion estimation. In the block-based approaches the most common procedure applied is the block-matching based on various algorithms. To refine the motion estimates resulting from the full search or any coarse search algorithm, one can find few applications of Kalman filtering, mainly in the intraframe scheme. The Kalman filtering technique applicability for block-based motion estimation is rather limited due to discontinuities in the dynamic behaviour of the motion vectors. Therefore, we propose an application of the concept of the filtering by approximated densities (FAD). The FAD, originally introduced to alleviate limitations due to conventional Kalman modelling, is applied to interframe block-motion estimation. This application uses a simple form of FAD involving statistical characteristics of multi-modal distributions up to second order.

Retrieval of mesospheric electron densities using an optimal estimation inverse method

We present a new method to determine mesospheric electron densities from partially reflected medium frequency radar pulses. The technique uses an optimal estimation inverse method and retrieves both an electron density profile and a gradient electron density profile. As well as accounting for the absorption of the two magnetoionic modes formed by ionospheric birefringence of each radar pulse, the forward model of the retrieval parameterises possible Fresnel scatter of each mode by fine electronic structure, phase changes of each mode due to Faraday rotation and the dependence of the amplitudes of the backscattered modes upon pulse width. Validation results indicate that known profiles can be retrieved and that χ2 tests upon retrieval parameters satisfy validity criteria. Application to measurements shows that retrieved electron density profiles are consistent with accepted ideas about seasonal variability of electron densities and their dependence upon nitric oxide production and transport.

Tillage and herbicide treatments with inter-row cultivation influence weed densities and yield of three industrial crops

Field experiments were conducted in northern Greece in 2003 and 2004 to evaluate effects of tillage regimes (moldboard plowing, chisel plowing, and rotary tilling), cropping sequences(continuous cotton, cotton-sugar beet rotation,and continuous tobacco) and herbicide treatments with inter-row hand hoeing on weed population densities. Total weed densities were not affected by tillage treatment except that of barnyardgrass (Echinochloa crus-galli), which increased only in moldboard plowing treated plots during 2003. Redroot pigweed (Amaranthus retroflexus)and black nightshade (Solanum nigrum) densities were reduced in continuous cotton, while purple nutsedge (Cyperus rotundus), E. crus-galli, S. nigrum, and johnsongras(Sorghum halepense) densities were reduced in tobacco. A. retroflexus and S. nigrum were effectively controlled by all herbicide treatments with inter-row hand hoeing,whereas E. crus-galli was effectively reduced by herbicides applied to cotton and tobacco. S. halepense density reduction was a result of herbicide applied to tobacco with inter-row hand hoeing. Yield of all crops was higher under moldboard plowing and herbicide treatments. Pre-sowing and pre-emergence herbicide treatments in cotton and pre-transplant in tobacco integrated with inter-row cultivation resulted in efficient control of annual weed species and good crop yields. These observations are of practical relevance to crop selection by farmers in order to maintain weed populations at economically acceptable densities through the integration of various planting dates, sustainable herbicide use and inter-row cultivation; tools of great importance in integrated weed management systems. Keywords: cropping sequence, herbicide, integrated weed management, inter-row cultivation,tillage.

(Non)differentiability and asymptotics for potential densities of subordinators

For subordinators with positive drift we extend recent results on the structure of the potential measures and the renewal densities. Applying Fourier analysis a new representation of the potential densities is derived from which we deduce asymptotic results and show how the atoms of the Lévy measure translate into points of (non)differentiability of the potential densities.

The asymptotic behavior of densities related to the supremum of a stable process

If X is a stable process of index α∈(0, 2) whose Lévy measure has density cx−α−1 on (0, ∞), and S1=sup0x)∽Aα−1x−α as x→∞ and P(S1≤x)∽Bα−1ρ−1xαρ as x↓0. [Here ρ=P(X1>0) and A and B are known constants.] It is also known that S1 has a continuous density, m say. The main point of this note is to show that m(x)∽Ax−(α+1) as x→∞ and m(x)∽Bxαρ−1 as x↓0. Similar results are obtained for related densities.

Housing densities and consumer choice

From 2001, the construction of flats and high-density developments increased in England and the building of houses declined. Does this indicate a change in taste or is it a result of government planning policies? In this paper, an analysis is made of the long-term effects of the policy of constraint which has existed for the past 50 years but the increase in density is identified as occurring primarily after new, revised, planning guidance was issued in England in 2000 which discouraged low-density development. To substantiate this, it is pointed out that the change which occurred in England did not occur in Scotland where guidance was not changed to encourage high-density residential development. The conclusion that the change is the result of planning policies and not of a change in taste is confirmed by surveys of the occupants of new high-rise developments in Leeds. The new flat-dwellers were predominantly young and childless and expressed the intention, in the near future, when they could, of moving out of the city centre and into houses. From recent changes in guidance by the new coalition government, it is expected that the construction of flats in England will fall back to earlier levels over the next few years.

Evaluating multivariate forecast densities: a comparison of two approaches

We consider methods of evaluating multivariate density forecasts. A recently proposed method is found to lack power when the correlation structure is mis-specified. Tests that have good power to detect mis-specifications of this sort are described. We also consider the properties of the tests in the presence of more general mis-specifications.