Food consumption impacts of adherence to dietary norms in the United States: a quantitative assessment

Promotion of adherence to healthy-eating norms has become an important element of nutrition policy in the United States and other developed countries. We assess the potential consumption impacts of adherence to a set of recommended dietary norms in the United States using a mathematical programming approach. We find that adherence to recommended dietary norms would involve significant changes in diets, with large reductions in the consumption of fats and oils along with large increases in the consumption of fruits, vegetables, and cereals. Compliance with norms recommended by the World Health Organization for energy derived from sugar would involve sharp reductions in sugar intakes. We also analyze how dietary adjustments required vary across demographic groups. Most socio-demographic characteristics appear to have relatively little influence on the pattern of adjustment required to comply with norms, Income levels have little effect on required dietary adjustments. Education is the only characteristic to have a significant influence on the magnitude of adjustments required. The least educated rather than the poorest have to bear the highest burden of adjustment. Out- analysis suggests that fiscal measures like nutrient-based taxes may not be as regressive as commonly believed. Dissemination of healthy-eating norms to the less educated will be a key challenge for nutrition policy.

Food consumption impacts of adherence to dietary norms in the United States: a quantitative assessment

Promotion of adherence to healthy-eating norms has become an important element of nutrition policy in the United States and other developed countries. We assess the potential consumption impacts of adherence to a set of recommended dietary norms in the United States using a mathematical programming approach. We find that adherence to recommended dietary norms would involve significant changes in diets, with large reductions in the consumption of fats and oils along with large increases in the consumption of fruits, vegetables, and cereals. Compliance with norms recommended by the World Health Organization for energy derived from sugar would involve sharp reductions in sugar intakes. We also analyze how dietary adjustments required vary across demographic groups. Most socio-demographic characteristics appear to have relatively little influence on the pattern of adjustment required to comply with norms, Income levels have little effect on required dietary adjustments. Education is the only characteristic to have a significant influence on the magnitude of adjustments required. The least educated rather than the poorest have to bear the highest burden of adjustment. Out- analysis suggests that fiscal measures like nutrient-based taxes may not be as regressive as commonly believed. Dissemination of healthy-eating norms to the less educated will be a key challenge for nutrition policy.

An assessment of the potential consumption impacts of WHO dietary norms in OECD countries

The member countries of the World Health Organization (WHO) have recently endorsed its global strategy on diet, physical activity and health. The strategy emphasises the need to limit the consumption of saturated fats and trans-fatty acids, salt and sugars, and to increase consumption of fruits and vegetables in order to combat the growing burden of non-communicable diseases. This paper attempts a broad quantitative assessment of the consumption impacts of these norms in OECD countries using a mathematical programming approach. We find that adherence to the WHO norms would involve a significant decrease in the consumption of vegetable oils (30%), dairy products (28%), sugar (24%), animal fats (30%) and meat (pig meat, 13.5%, mutton and goat 14.5%) and a significant increase in the human consumption of cereals (31%), fruits (25%) and vegetables (21%). (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessment of CloudSat reflectivity measurements and ice cloud properties using ground-based and airborne cloud radar observations

A quantitative assessment of Cloudsat reflectivities and basic ice cloud properties (cloud base, top, and thickness) is conducted in the present study from both airborne and ground-based observations. Airborne observations allow direct comparisons on a limited number of ocean backscatter and cloud samples, whereas the ground-based observations allow statistical comparisons on much longer time series but with some additional assumptions. Direct comparisons of the ocean backscatter and ice cloud reflectivities measured by an airborne cloud radar and Cloudsat during two field experiments indicate that, on average, Cloudsat measures ocean backscatter 0.4 dB higher and ice cloud reflectivities 1 dB higher than the airborne cloud radar. Five ground-based sites have also been used for a statistical evaluation of the Cloudsat reflectivities and basic cloud properties. From these comparisons, it is found that the weighted-mean difference ZCloudsat − ZGround ranges from −0.4 to +0.3 dB when a ±1-h time lag around the Cloudsat overpass is considered. Given the fact that the airborne and ground-based radar calibration accuracy is about 1 dB, it is concluded that the reflectivities of the spaceborne, airborne, and ground-based radars agree within the expected calibration uncertainties of the airborne and ground-based radars. This result shows that the Cloudsat radar does achieve the claimed sensitivity of around −29 dBZ. Finally, an evaluation of the tropical “convective ice” profiles measured by Cloudsat has been carried out over the tropical site in Darwin, Australia. It is shown that these profiles can be used statistically down to approximately 9-km height (or 4 km above the melting layer) without attenuation and multiple scattering corrections over Darwin. It is difficult to estimate if this result is applicable to all types of deep convective storms in the tropics. However, this first study suggests that the Cloudsat profiles in convective ice need to be corrected for attenuation by supercooled liquid water and ice aggregates/graupel particles and multiple scattering prior to their quantitative use.

Private industrial project management: a systems-based case study

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private industrial development consisting of an extension to existing buildings to provide a warehouse, services block and packing line. The organizational structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from systems theory which are included in Walker's theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations (Walker, 1981). This model proposes that the process of building provision can be viewed as systems and subsystems which are differentiated from each other at decision points. Further to this, the subsystems can be viewed as the interaction of managing system and operating system. Using Walker's model, a systematic analysis of the relationships between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficacy of the organizational structure used. The causes of the client's dissatisfaction with the outcome of the project were lack of integration and complexity of the managing system. However, there was a high level of satisfaction with the completed project and this is reflected by the way in which the organization structure corresponded to the model's propositions.

A conventionally managed project: a systems based case study

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private development consisting of an extension to an existing building to provide a wholesale butchery facility. The project used a conventionally organized management process. The organization structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from the systems theory, which are included in Walkers theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations. This model proposes that the process of building provision can be viewed as systems and sub-systems that are differentiated from each other at decision points. Further to this, the sub-systems can be viewed as the interaction of managing system and operating system. Using Walkers model, a systematic analysis of the relationships between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficiency of the organizational structure used. The project's organization structure diverged from the models propositions resulting in delay to the project's completion and cost overrun but the client was satisfied with the project functionally.

A project managed by a multi disciplinary practice: a systems based case study.

The technique of linear responsibility analysis is used for a retrospective case study of a private industrial development consisting of an engineering factory and offices. A multi-disciplinary professional practice was used to manage and design the project. The organizational structure adopted on the project is analysed using concepts from systems theory which are included in Walker's theoretical model of the structure of building project organizations (Walker, 1981). This model proposes that the process of buildings provision can be viewed as systems and sub-systems which are differentiated form each other at decision points. Further to this, the sub-systematic analysis of the relationship between the contributors gives a quantitative assessment of the efficiency of the organizational structure used. There was a high level of satisfaction with the completed project and this is reflected by the way in which the organization structure corresponded to the model's proposition. However, the project was subject to string environmental forces which the project organization was not capable of entirely overcoming.

Reproductive conflict delays the recovery of an endangered social species

Evolutionary theory predicts that individuals, in order to increase their relative fitness, can evolve behaviours that are detrimental for the group or population. This mismatch is particularly visible in social organisms. Despite its potential to affect the population dynamics of social animals, this principle has not yet been applied to real-life conservation. Social group structure has been argued to stabilize population dynamics due to the buffering effects of nonreproducing subordinates. However, competition for breeding positions in such species can also interfere with the reproduction of breeding pairs. Seychelles magpie robins, Copsychus sechellarum, live in social groups where subordinate individuals do not breed. Analysis of long-term individual-based data and short-term behavioural observations show that subordinates increase the territorial takeover frequency of established breeders. Such takeovers delay offspring production and decrease territory productivity. Individual-based simulations of the Seychelles magpie robin population parameterized with the long-term data show that this process has significantly postponed the recovery of the species from the Critically Endangered status. Social conflict thus can extend the period of high extinction risk, which we show to have population consequences that should be taken into account in management programmes. This is the first quantitative assessment of the effects of social conflict on conservation.

A novel approach to the detection of synchronisation in EEG based on empirical mode decomposition

Transient neural assemblies mediated by synchrony in particular frequency ranges are thought to underlie cognition. We propose a new approach to their detection, using empirical mode decomposition (EMD), a data-driven approach removing the need for arbitrary bandpass filter cut-offs. Phase locking is sought between modes. We explore the features of EMD, including making a quantitative assessment of its ability to preserve phase content of signals, and proceed to develop a statistical framework with which to assess synchrony episodes. Furthermore, we propose a new approach to ensure signal decomposition using EMD. We adapt the Hilbert spectrum to a time-frequency representation of phase locking and are able to locate synchrony successfully in time and frequency between synthetic signals reminiscent of EEG. We compare our approach, which we call EMD phase locking analysis (EMDPL) with existing methods and show it to offer improved time-frequency localisation of synchrony.

Assessing the spatial and temporal variation in the skill of precipitation forecasts from an NWP model

It is becoming increasingly important to be able to verify the spatial accuracy of precipitation forecasts, especially with the advent of high-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. In this article, the fractions skill score (FSS) approach has been used to perform a scale-selective evaluation of precipitation forecasts during 2003 from the Met Office mesoscale model (12 km grid length). The investigation shows how skill varies with spatial scale, the scales over which the data assimilation (DA) adds most skill, and how the loss of that skill is dependent on both the spatial scale and the rainfall coverage being examined. Although these results come from a specific model, they demonstrate how this verification approach can provide a quantitative assessment of the spatial behaviour of new finer-resolution models and DA techniques.

A mixed-phase bulk orographic precipitation model with embedded convection

A novel analytical model for mixed-phase, unblocked and unseeded orographic precipitation with embedded convection is developed and evaluated. The model takes an idealised background flow and terrain geometry, and calculates the area-averaged precipitation rate and other microphysical quantities. The results provide insight into key physical processes, including cloud condensation, vapour deposition, evaporation, sublimation, as well as precipitation formation and sedimentation (fallout). To account for embedded convection in nominally stratiform clouds, diagnostics for purely convective and purely stratiform clouds are calculated independently and combined using weighting functions based on relevant dynamical and microphysical time scales. An in-depth description of the model is presented, as well as a quantitative assessment of its performance against idealised, convection-permitting numerical simulations with a sophisticated microphysics parameterisation. The model is found to accurately reproduce the simulation diagnostics over most of the parameter space considered.

Towards an assessment of multiple ecosystem processes and services via functional traits

Managing ecosystems to ensure the provision of multiple ecosystem services is a key challenge for applied ecology. Functional traits are receiving increasing attention as the main ecological attributes by which different organisms and biological communities influence ecosystem services through their effects on underlying ecosystem processes. Here we synthesize concepts and empirical evidence on linkages between functional traits and ecosystem services across different trophic levels. Most of the 247 studies reviewed considered plants and soil invertebrates, but quantitative trait–service associations have been documented for a range of organisms and ecosystems, illustrating the wide applicability of the trait approach. Within each trophic level, specific processes are affected by a combination of traits while particular key traits are simultaneously involved in the control of multiple processes. These multiple associations between traits and ecosystem processes can help to identify predictable trait–service clusters that depend on several trophic levels, such as clusters of traits of plants and soil organisms that underlie nutrient cycling, herbivory, and fodder and fibre production. We propose that the assessment of trait–service clusters will represent a crucial step in ecosystem service monitoring and in balancing the delivery of multiple, and sometimes conflicting, services in ecosystem management.

A model-based assessment of the effects of projected climate change on the water resources of Jordan

This paper is concerned with the quantification of the likely effect of anthropogenic climate change on the water resources of Jordan by the end of the twenty-first century. Specifically, a suite of hydrological models are used in conjunction with modelled outcomes from a regional climate model, HadRM3, and a weather generator to determine how future flows in the upper River Jordan and in the Wadi Faynan may change. The results indicate that groundwater will play an important role in the water security of the country as irrigation demands increase. Given future projections of reduced winter rainfall and increased near-surface air temperatures, the already low groundwater recharge will decrease further. Interestingly, the modelled discharge at the Wadi Faynan indicates that extreme flood flows will increase in magnitude, despite a decrease in the mean annual rainfall. Simulations projected no increase in flood magnitude in the upper River Jordan. Discussion focuses on the utility of the modelling framework, the problems of making quantitative forecasts and the implications of reduced water availability in Jordan.

Reproducibility of a short semi-quantitative food group questionnaire and its performance in estimating nutrient intake compared with a 7-day diet diary in the Million Women Study

Objectives: To assess the short- and long-term reproducibility of a short food group questionnaire, and to compare its performance for estimating nutrient intakes in comparison with a 7-day diet diary. Design: Participants for the reproducibility study completed the food group questionnaire at two time points, up to 2 years apart. Participants for the performance study completed both the food group questionnaire and a 7-day diet diary a few months apart. Reproducibility was assessed by kappa statistics and percentage change between the two questionnaires; performance was assessed by kappa statistics, rank correlations and percentages of participants classified into the same and opposite thirds of intake. Setting: A random sample of participants in the Million Women Study, a population-based prospective study in the UK. Subjects: In total, 12 221 women aged 50-64 years. Results: in the reproducibility study, 75% of the food group items showed at least moderate agreement for all four time-point comparisons. Items showing fair agreement or worse tended to be those where few respondents reported eating them more than once a week, those consumed in small amounts and those relating to types of fat consumed. Compared with the diet diary, the food group questionnaire showed consistently reasonable performance for the nutrients carbohydrate, saturated fat, cholesterol, total sugars, alcohol, fibre, calcium, riboflavin, folate and vitamin C. Conclusions: The short food group questionnaire used in this study has been shown to be reproducible over time and to perform reasonably well for the assessment of a number of dietary nutrients.