Assessment of the Wind Gust Estimate Method in mesoscale modelling of storm events over West Germany

A physically based gust parameterisation is added to the atmospheric mesoscale model FOOT3DK to estimate wind gusts associated with storms over West Germany. The gust parameterisation follows the Wind Gust Estimate (WGE) method and its functionality is verified in this study. The method assumes that gusts occurring at the surface are induced by turbulent eddies in the planetary boundary layer, deflecting air parcels from higher levels down to the surface under suitable conditions. Model simulations are performed with horizontal resolutions of 20 km and 5 km. Ten historical storm events of different characteristics and intensities are chosen in order to include a wide range of typical storms affecting Central Europe. All simulated storms occurred between 1990 and 1998. The accuracy of the method is assessed objectively by validating the simulated wind gusts against data from 16 synoptic stations by means of “quality parameters”. Concerning these parameters, the temporal and spatial evolution of the simulated gusts is well reproduced. Simulated values for low altitude stations agree particularly well with the measured gusts. For orographically exposed locations, the gust speeds are partly underestimated. The absolute maximum gusts lie in most cases within the bounding interval given by the WGE method. Focussing on individual storms, the performance of the method is better for intense and large storms than for weaker ones. Particularly for weaker storms, the gusts are typically overestimated. The results for the sample of ten storms document that the method is generally applicable with the mesoscale model FOOT3DK for mid-latitude winter storms, even in areas with complex orography.

The integrated WRF/urban modelling system: development, evaluation, and applications to urban environmental problems

To bridge the gaps between traditional mesoscale modelling and microscale modelling, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, in collaboration with other agencies and research groups, has developed an integrated urban modelling system coupled to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model as a community tool to address urban environmental issues. The core of this WRF/urban modelling system consists of the following: (1) three methods with different degrees of freedom to parameterize urban surface processes, ranging from a simple bulk parameterization to a sophisticated multi-layer urban canopy model with an indoor–outdoor exchange sub-model that directly interacts with the atmospheric boundary layer, (2) coupling to fine-scale computational fluid dynamic Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes and Large-Eddy simulation models for transport and dispersion (T&D) applications, (3) procedures to incorporate high-resolution urban land use, building morphology, and anthropogenic heating data using the National Urban Database and Access Portal Tool (NUDAPT), and (4) an urbanized high-resolution land data assimilation system. This paper provides an overview of this modelling system; addresses the daunting challenges of initializing the coupled WRF/urban model and of specifying the potentially vast number of parameters required to execute the WRF/urban model; explores the model sensitivity to these urban parameters; and evaluates the ability of WRF/urban to capture urban heat islands, complex boundary-layer structures aloft, and urban plume T&D for several major metropolitan regions. Recent applications of this modelling system illustrate its promising utility, as a regional climate-modelling tool, to investigate impacts of future urbanization on regional meteorological conditions and on air quality under future climate change scenarios. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society

Trade-offs and responsiveness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization in WRF: an offline evaluation using the MOSCEM optimization algorithm and field observations

For an increasing number of applications, mesoscale modelling systems now aim to better represent urban areas. The complexity of processes resolved by urban parametrization schemes varies with the application. The concept of fitness-for-purpose is therefore critical for both the choice of parametrizations and the way in which the scheme should be evaluated. A systematic and objective model response analysis procedure (Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (MOSCEM) algorithm) is used to assess the fitness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme is evaluated regarding its ability to simulate observed surface energy fluxes and the sensitivity to input parameters. Recent amendments are described, focussing on features which improve its applicability to numerical weather prediction, such as a reduced and physically more meaningful list of input parameters. The study shows a high sensitivity of the scheme to parameters characterizing roof properties in contrast to a low response to road-related ones. Problems in partitioning of energy between turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are also emphasized. Some initial guidelines to prioritize efforts to obtain urban land-cover class characteristics in WRF are provided. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

Joint modelling of obstacle induced and mesoscale changes: current limits and challenges

Obstacles considerably influence boundary layer processes. Their influences have been included in mesoscale models (MeM) for a long time. Methods used to parameterise obstacle effects in a MeM are summarised in this paper using results of the mesoscale model METRAS as examples. Besides the parameterisation of obstacle influences it is also possible to use a joint modelling approach to describe obstacle induced and mesoscale changes. Three different methods may be used for joint modelling approaches: The first method is a time-slice approach, where steady basic state profiles are used in an obstacle resolving microscale model (MiM, example model MITRAS) and diurnal cycles are derived by joining steady-state MITRAS results. The second joint modelling approach is one-way nesting, where the MeM results are used to initialise the MiM and to drive the boundary values of the MiM dependent on time. The third joint modelling approach is to apply multi-scale models or two-way nesting approaches, which include feedbacks from the MiM to the MeM. The advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches and remaining problems with joint Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes modelling approaches are summarised in the paper.

Observations of the depth of ice particle evaporation beneath frontal cloud to improve NWP modelling

The evaporation (sublimation) of ice particles beneath frontal ice cloud can provide a significant source of diabatic cooling which can lead to enhanced slantwise descent below the frontal surface. The strength and vertical extent of the cooling play a role in determining the dynamic response of the atmosphere, and an adequate representation is required in numerical weather-prediction (NWP) models for accurate forecasts of frontal dynamics. In this paper, data from a vertically pointing 94 GHz radar are used to determine the characteristic depth-scale of ice particle sublimation beneath frontal ice cloud. A statistical comparison is made with equivalent data extracted from the NWP mesoscale model operational at the Met Office, defining the evaporation depth-scale as the distance for the ice water content to fall to 10% of its peak value in the cloud. The results show that the depth of the ice evaporation zone derived from observations is less than 1 km for 90% of the time. The model significantly overestimates the sublimation depth-scales by a factor of between two and three, and underestimates the local ice water content by a factor of between two and four. Consequently the results suggest the model significantly underestimates the strength of the evaporative cooling, with implications for the prediction of frontal dynamics. A number of reasons for the model discrepancy are suggested. A comparison with radiosonde relative humidity data suggests part of the overestimation in evaporation depth may be due to a high RH bias in the dry slot beneath the frontal cloud, but other possible reasons include poor vertical resolution and deficiencies in the evaporation rate or ice particle fall-speed parametrizations.

Modelling the effects of gravity waves on stratocumulus clouds observed during VOCALS-UK

During the VOCALS campaign spaceborne satellite observations showed that travelling gravity wave packets, generated by geostrophic adjustment, resulted in perturbations to marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds over the south-east Pacific Ocean (SEP). Often, these perturbations were reversible in that passage of the wave resulted in the clouds becoming brighter (in the wave crest), then darker (in the wave trough) and subsequently recovering their properties after the passage of the wave. However, occasionally the wave packets triggered irreversible changes to the clouds, which transformed from closed mesoscale cellular convection to open form. In this paper we use large eddy simulation (LES) to examine the physical mechanisms that cause this transition. Specifically, we examine whether the clearing of the cloud is due to (i) the wave causing additional cloud-top entrainment of warm, dry air or (ii) whether the additional condensation of liquid water onto the existing drops and the subsequent formation of drizzle are the important mechanisms. We find that, although the wave does cause additional drizzle formation, this is not the reason for the persistent clearing of the cloud; rather it is the additional entrainment of warm, dry air into the cloud followed by a reduction in longwave cooling, although this only has a significant effect when the cloud is starting to decouple from the boundary layer. The result in this case is a change from a stratocumulus to a more patchy cloud regime. For the simulations presented here, cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) scavenging did not play an important role in the clearing of the cloud. The results have implications for understanding transitions between the different cellular regimes in marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds.

Progress in observing and modelling the urban boundary layer

The urban boundary layer (UBL) is the part of the atmosphere in which most of the planet’s population now lives, and is one of the most complex and least understood microclimates. Given potential climate change impacts and the requirement to develop cities sustainably, the need for sound modelling and observational tools becomes pressing. This review paper considers progress made in studies of the UBL in terms of a conceptual framework spanning microscale to mesoscale determinants of UBL structure and evolution. Considerable progress in observing and modelling the urban surface energy balance has been made. The urban roughness sub-layer is an important region requiring attention as assumptions about atmospheric turbulence break down in this layer and it may dominate coupling of the surface to the UBL due to its considerable depth. The upper 90% of the UBL (mixed and residual layers) remains under-researched but new remote sensing methods and high resolution modelling tools now permit rapid progress. Surface heterogeneity dominates from neighbourhood to regional scales and should be more strongly considered in future studies. Specific research priorities include humidity within the UBL, high-rise urban canopies and the development of long-term, spatially extensive measurement networks coupled strongly to model development.

Impact of Laptev Sea flaw polynyas on the atmospheric boundary layer and ice production using idealized mesoscale simulations

The interaction between polynyas and the atmospheric boundary layer is examined in the Laptev Sea using the regional, non-hydrostatic Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) atmosphere model. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is used to consider the response of sea-ice surface temperature to idealized atmospheric forcing. The idealized regimes represent atmospheric conditions that are typical for the Laptev Sea region. Cold wintertime conditions are investigated with sea-ice–ocean temperature differences of up to 40 K. The Laptev Sea flaw polynyas strongly modify the atmospheric boundary layer. Convectively mixed layers reach heights of up to 1200 m above the polynyas with temperature anomalies of more than 5 K. Horizontal transport of heat expands to areas more than 500 km downstream of the polynyas. Strong wind regimes lead to a more shallow mixed layer with strong near-surface modifications, while weaker wind regimes show a deeper, well-mixed convective boundary layer. Shallow mesoscale circulations occur in the vicinity of ice-free and thin-ice covered polynyas. They are forced by large turbulent and radiative heat fluxes from the surface of up to 789 W m−2, strong low-level thermally induced convergence and cold air flow from the orographic structure of the Taimyr Peninsula in the western Laptev Sea region. Based on the surface energy balance we derive potential sea-ice production rates between 8 and 25 cm d−1. These production rates are mainly determined by whether the polynyas are ice-free or covered by thin ice and by the wind strength.

Distribution and statistics of African mesoscale convective weather systems based on the ISCCP Meteosat imagery

This paper provides for the first time an objective short-term (8 yr) climatology of African convective weather systems based on satellite imagery. Eight years of infrared International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project-European Space Agency's Meteorological Satellite (ISCCP-Meteosat) satellite imagery has been analyzed using objective feature identification, tracking, and statistical techniques for the July, August, and September periods and the region of Africa and the adjacent Atlantic ocean. This allows various diagnostics to be computed and used to study the distribution of mesoscale and synoptic-scale convective weather systems from mesoscale cloud clusters and squall lines to tropical cyclones. An 8-yr seasonal climatology (1983-90) and the seasonal cycle of this convective activity are presented and discussed. Also discussed is the dependence of organized convection for this region, on the orography, convective, and potential instability and vertical wind shear using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis data.

Use of fused airborne scanning laser altimetry and digital map data for urban flood modelling

Flood modelling of urban areas is still at an early stage, partly because until recently topographic data of sufficiently high resolution and accuracy have been lacking in urban areas. However, Digital Surface Models (DSMs) generated from airborne scanning laser altimetry (LiDAR) having sub-metre spatial resolution have now become available, and these are able to represent the complexities of urban topography. The paper describes the development of a LiDAR post-processor for urban flood modelling based on the fusion of LiDAR and digital map data. The map data are used in conjunction with LiDAR data to identify different object types in urban areas, though pattern recognition techniques are also employed. Post-processing produces a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) for use as model bathymetry, and also a friction parameter map for use in estimating spatially-distributed friction coefficients. In vegetated areas, friction is estimated from LiDAR-derived vegetation height, and (unlike most vegetation removal software) the method copes with short vegetation less than ~1m high, which may occupy a substantial fraction of even an urban floodplain. The DTM and friction parameter map may also be used to help to generate an unstructured mesh of a vegetated urban floodplain for use by a 2D finite element model. The mesh is decomposed to reflect floodplain features having different frictional properties to their surroundings, including urban features such as buildings and roads as well as taller vegetation features such as trees and hedges. This allows a more accurate estimation of local friction. The method produces a substantial node density due to the small dimensions of many urban features.

Stochastic modelling of rainfall from satellite data

Satellite-based rainfall monitoring is widely used for climatological studies because of its full global coverage but it is also of great importance for operational purposes especially in areas such as Africa where there is a lack of ground-based rainfall data. Satellite rainfall estimates have enormous potential benefits as input to hydrological and agricultural models because of their real time availability, low cost and full spatial coverage. One issue that needs to be addressed is the uncertainty on these estimates. This is particularly important in assessing the likely errors on the output from non-linear models (rainfall-runoff or crop yield) which make use of the rainfall estimates, aggregated over an area, as input. Correct assessment of the uncertainty on the rainfall is non-trivial as it must take account of • the difference in spatial support of the satellite information and independent data used for calibration • uncertainties on the independent calibration data • the non-Gaussian distribution of rainfall amount • the spatial intermittency of rainfall • the spatial correlation of the rainfall field This paper describes a method for estimating the uncertainty on satellite-based rainfall values taking account of these factors. The method involves firstly a stochastic calibration which completely describes the probability of rainfall occurrence and the pdf of rainfall amount for a given satellite value, and secondly the generation of ensemble of rainfall fields based on the stochastic calibration but with the correct spatial correlation structure within each ensemble member. This is achieved by the use of geostatistical sequential simulation. The ensemble generated in this way may be used to estimate uncertainty at larger spatial scales. A case study of daily rainfall monitoring in the Gambia, west Africa for the purpose of crop yield forecasting is presented to illustrate the method.