A review of measurement-based assessments of the aerosol direct radiative effect and forcing

Aerosols affect the Earth's energy budget directly by scattering and absorbing radiation and indirectly by acting as cloud condensation nuclei and, thereby, affecting cloud properties. However, large uncertainties exist in current estimates of aerosol forcing because of incomplete knowledge concerning the distribution and the physical and chemical properties of aerosols as well as aerosol-cloud interactions. In recent years, a great deal of effort has gone into improving measurements and datasets. It is thus feasible to shift the estimates of aerosol forcing from largely model-based to increasingly measurement-based. Our goal is to assess current observational capabilities and identify uncertainties in the aerosol direct forcing through comparisons of different methods with independent sources of uncertainties. Here we assess the aerosol optical depth (τ), direct radiative effect (DRE) by natural and anthropogenic aerosols, and direct climate forcing (DCF) by anthropogenic aerosols, focusing on satellite and ground-based measurements supplemented by global chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The multi-spectral MODIS measures global distributions of aerosol optical depth (τ) on a daily scale, with a high accuracy of ±0.03±0.05τ over ocean. The annual average τ is about 0.14 over global ocean, of which about 21%±7% is contributed by human activities, as estimated by MODIS fine-mode fraction. The multi-angle MISR derives an annual average AOD of 0.23 over global land with an uncertainty of ~20% or ±0.05. These high-accuracy aerosol products and broadband flux measurements from CERES make it feasible to obtain observational constraints for the aerosol direct effect, especially over global the ocean. A number of measurement-based approaches estimate the clear-sky DRE (on solar radiation) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) to be about -5.5±0.2 Wm-2 (median ± standard error from various methods) over the global ocean. Accounting for thin cirrus contamination of the satellite derived aerosol field will reduce the TOA DRE to -5.0 Wm-2. Because of a lack of measurements of aerosol absorption and difficulty in characterizing land surface reflection, estimates of DRE over land and at the ocean surface are currently realized through a combination of satellite retrievals, surface measurements, and model simulations, and are less constrained. Over the oceans the surface DRE is estimated to be -8.8±0.7 Wm-2. Over land, an integration of satellite retrievals and model simulations derives a DRE of -4.9±0.7 Wm-2 and -11.8±1.9 Wm-2 at the TOA and surface, respectively. CTM simulations derive a wide range of DRE estimates that on average are smaller than the measurement-based DRE by about 30-40%, even after accounting for thin cirrus and cloud contamination. A number of issues remain. Current estimates of the aerosol direct effect over land are poorly constrained. Uncertainties of DRE estimates are also larger on regional scales than on a global scale and large discrepancies exist between different approaches. The characterization of aerosol absorption and vertical distribution remains challenging. The aerosol direct effect in the thermal infrared range and in cloudy conditions remains relatively unexplored and quite uncertain, because of a lack of global systematic aerosol vertical profile measurements. A coordinated research strategy needs to be developed for integration and assimilation of satellite measurements into models to constrain model simulations. Enhanced measurement capabilities in the next few years and high-level scientific cooperation will further advance our knowledge.

Satellite-based estimate of the direct and indirect aerosol climate forcing

The main uncertainty in anthropogenic forcing of the Earth’s climate stems from pollution aerosols, particularly their ‘‘indirect effect’’ whereby aerosols modify cloud properties. We develop a new methodology to derive a measurement-based estimate using almost exclusively information from an Earth radiation budget instrument (CERES) and a radiometer (MODIS). We derive a statistical relationship between planetary albedo and cloud properties, and, further, between the cloud properties and column aerosol concentration. Combining these relationships with a data set of satellite-derived anthropogenic aerosol fraction, we estimate an anthropogenic radiative forcing of �-0.9 ± 0.4 Wm�-2 for the aerosol direct effect and of �-0.2 ± 0.1 Wm�-2 for the cloud albedo effect. Because of uncertainties in both satellite data and the method, the uncertainty of this result is likely larger than the values given here which correspond only to the quantifiable error estimates. The results nevertheless indicate that current global climate models may overestimate the cloud albedo effect.

Global estimates of snow water equivalent from passive microwave instruments: history, challenges and future developments

Snow properties have been retrieved from satellite data for many decades. While snow extent is generally felt to be obtained reliably from visible-band data, there is less confidence in the measurements of snow mass or water equivalent derived from passive microwave instruments. This paper briefly reviews historical passive microwave instruments and products, and compares the large-scale patterns from these sources to those of general circulation models and leading reanalysis products. Differences are seen to be large between the datasets, particularly over Siberia. A better understanding of the errors in both the model-based and measurement-based datasets is required to exploit both fully. Techniques to apply to the satellite measurements for improved large-scale snow data are suggested.

Precise analysis of array usage in scientific programs

The automatic transformation of sequential programs for efficient execution on parallel computers involves a number of analyses and restructurings of the input. Some of these analyses are based on computing array sections, a compact description of a range of array elements. Array sections describe the set of array elements that are either read or written by program statements. These sections can be compactly represented using shape descriptors such as regular sections, simple sections, or generalized convex regions. However, binary operations such as Union performed on these representations do not satisfy a straightforward closure property, e.g., if the operands to Union are convex, the result may be nonconvex. Approximations are resorted to in order to satisfy this closure property. These approximations introduce imprecision in the analyses and, furthermore, the imprecisions resulting from successive operations have a cumulative effect. Delayed merging is a technique suggested and used in some of the existing analyses to minimize the effects of approximation. However, this technique does not guarantee an exact solution in a general setting. This article presents a generalized technique to precisely compute Union which can overcome these imprecisions.

The use of computer-based learning tools for teaching and clinical purposes: Interactive computing strategy for Iraq

Medical universities and teaching hospitals in Iraq are facing a lack of professional staff due to the ongoing violence that forces them to flee the country. The professionals are now distributed outside the country which reduces the chances for the staff and students to be physically in one place to continue the teaching and limits the efficiency of the consultations in hospitals. A survey was done among students and professional staff in Iraq to find the problems in the learning and clinical systems and how Information and Communication Technology could improve it. The survey has shown that 86% of the participants use the Internet as a learning resource and 25% for clinical purposes while less than 11% of them uses it for collaboration between different institutions. A web-based collaborative tool is proposed to improve the teaching and clinical system. The tool helps the users to collaborate remotely to increase the quality of the learning system as well as it can be used for remote medical consultation in hospitals.

MULTIMODE quantum calculations of intramolecular vibrational energies of the water dimer and trimer using ab initio-based potential energy surfaces

We report vibrational configuration interaction calculations of the monomer fundamentals of (H2O)(2), (D2O)(2), (H2O)(3), and (D2O)(3) using the code MULTIMODE and full dimensional ab initio-based global potential energies surfaces (PESs). For the dimer the HBB PES [Huang , J. Chem. Phys 128, 034312 (2008)] is used and for the trimer a new PES, reported here, is used. The salient properties of the new trimer PES are presented and compared to previous single-point calculations and the vibrational energies are compared with experiments. (C) 2008 American Institute of Physics.

A cluster-based implementation of a fault-tolerant parallel reduction algorithm using swarm-array computing

Recent research in multi-agent systems incorporate fault tolerance concepts. However, the research does not explore the extension and implementation of such ideas for large scale parallel computing systems. The work reported in this paper investigates a swarm array computing approach, namely ‘Intelligent Agents’. In the approach considered a task to be executed on a parallel computing system is decomposed to sub-tasks and mapped onto agents that traverse an abstracted hardware layer. The agents intercommunicate across processors to share information during the event of a predicted core/processor failure and for successfully completing the task. The agents hence contribute towards fault tolerance and towards building reliable systems. The feasibility of the approach is validated by simulations on an FPGA using a multi-agent simulator and implementation of a parallel reduction algorithm on a computer cluster using the Message Passing Interface.

An improved lesion detection approach based on similarity measurement between fuzzy intensity segmentation and spatial probability maps

The application of automatic segmentation methods in lesion detection is desirable. However, such methods are restricted by intensity similarities between lesioned and healthy brain tissue. Using multi-spectral magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) modalities may overcome this problem but it is not always practicable. In this article, a lesion detection approach requiring a single MRI modality is presented, which is an improved method based on a recent publication. This new method assumes that a low similarity should be found in the regions of lesions when the likeness between an intensity based fuzzy segmentation and a location based tissue probabilities is measured. The usage of a normalized similarity measurement enables the current method to fine-tune the threshold for lesion detection, thus maximizing the possibility of reaching high detection accuracy. Importantly, an extra cleaning step is included in the current approach which removes enlarged ventricles from detected lesions. The performance investigation using simulated lesions demonstrated that not only the majority of lesions were well detected but also normal tissues were identified effectively. Tests on images acquired in stroke patients further confirmed the strength of the method in lesion detection. When compared with the previous version, the current approach showed a higher sensitivity in detecting small lesions and had less false positives around the ventricle and the edge of the brain

Consumer-based brand equity conceptualisation and measurement: a literature review

Although there is a large body of research on brand equity, little in terms of a literature review has been published on this since Feldwick's (1996) paper. To address this gap, this paper brings together the scattered literature on consumer-based brand equity's conceptualisation and measurement. Measures of consumer-based brand equity are classified as either direct or indirect. Indirect measures assess consumer-based brand equity through its demonstrable dimensions and are superior from a diagnostic level. The paper concludes with directions for future research and managerial pointers for setting up a brand equity measurement system.

Molecular modelling studies of binding of DACD derivatives into G-Quadruplex DNA: comparison of force field and quantum polarized ligand docking methods

The DNA G-qadruplexes are one of the targets being actively explored for anti-cancer therapy by inhibiting them through small molecules. This computational study was conducted to predict the binding strengths and orientations of a set of novel dimethyl-amino-ethyl-acridine (DACA) analogues that are designed and synthesized in our laboratory, but did not diffract in Synchrotron light.Thecrystal structure of DNA G-Quadruplex(TGGGGT)4(PDB: 1O0K) was used as target for their binding properties in our studies.We used both the force field (FF) and QM/MM derived atomic charge schemes simultaneously for comparing the predictions of drug binding modes and their energetics. This study evaluates the comparative performance of fixed point charge based Glide XP docking and the quantum polarized ligand docking schemes. These results will provide insights on the effects of including or ignoring the drug-receptor interfacial polarization events in molecular docking simulations, which in turn, will aid the rational selection of computational methods at different levels of theory in future drug design programs. Plenty of molecular modelling tools and methods currently exist for modelling drug-receptor or protein-protein, or DNA-protein interactionssat different levels of complexities.Yet, the capasity of such tools to describevarious physico-chemical propertiesmore accuratelyis the next step ahead in currentresearch.Especially, the usage of most accurate methods in quantum mechanics(QM) is severely restricted by theirtedious nature. Though the usage of massively parallel super computing environments resulted in a tremendous improvement in molecular mechanics (MM) calculations like molecular dynamics,they are still capable of dealing with only a couple of tens to hundreds of atoms for QM methods. One such efficient strategy that utilizes thepowers of both MM and QM are the QM/MM hybrid methods. Lately, attempts have been directed towards the goal of deploying several different QM methods for betterment of force field based simulations, but with practical restrictions in place. One of such methods utilizes the inclusion of charge polarization events at the drug-receptor interface, that is not explicitly present in the MM FF.

The Impact of office productivity cloud computing on energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Cloud computing is usually regarded as being energy efficient and thus emitting less greenhouse gases (GHG) than traditional forms of computing. When the energy consumption of Microsoft’s cloud computing Office 365 (O365) and traditional Office 2010 (O2010) software suites were tested and modeled, some cloud services were found to consume more energy than the traditional form. The developed model in this research took into consideration the energy consumption at the three main stages of data transmission; data center, network, and end user device. Comparable products from each suite were selected and activities were defined for each product to represent a different computing type. Microsoft provided highly confidential data for the data center stage, while the networking and user device stages were measured directly. A new measurement and software apportionment approach was defined and utilized allowing the power consumption of cloud services to be directly measured for the user device stage. Results indicated that cloud computing is more energy efficient for Excel and Outlook which consumed less energy and emitted less GHG than the standalone counterpart. The power consumption of the cloud based Outlook (8%) and Excel (17%) was lower than their traditional counterparts. However, the power consumption of the cloud version of Word was 17% higher than its traditional equivalent. A third mixed access method was also measured for Word which emitted 5% more GHG than the traditional version. It is evident that cloud computing may not provide a unified way forward to reduce energy consumption and GHG. Direct conversion from the standalone package into the cloud provision platform can now consider energy and GHG emissions at the software development and cloud service design stage using the methods described in this research.

Trends in adult body-mass index in 200 countries from 1975 to 2014: a pooled analysis of 1698 population-based measurement studies with 19·2 million participants

Background Underweight and severe and morbid obesity are associated with highly elevated risks of adverse health outcomes. We estimated trends in mean body-mass index (BMI), which characterises its population distribution, and in the prevalences of a complete set of BMI categories for adults in all countries. Methods We analysed, with use of a consistent protocol, population-based studies that had measured height and weight in adults aged 18 years and older. We applied a Bayesian hierarchical model to these data to estimate trends from 1975 to 2014 in mean BMI and in the prevalences of BMI categories (<18·5 kg/m2 [underweight], 18·5 kg/m2 to <20 kg/m2, 20 kg/m2 to <25 kg/m2, 25 kg/m2 to <30 kg/m2, 30 kg/m2 to <35 kg/m2, 35 kg/m2 to <40 kg/m2, ≥40 kg/m2 [morbid obesity]), by sex in 200 countries and territories, organised in 21 regions. We calculated the posterior probability of meeting the target of halting by 2025 the rise in obesity at its 2010 levels, if post-2000 trends continue. Findings We used 1698 population-based data sources, with more than 19·2 million adult participants (9·9 million men and 9·3 million women) in 186 of 200 countries for which estimates were made. Global age-standardised mean BMI increased from 21·7 kg/m2 (95% credible interval 21·3–22·1) in 1975 to 24·2 kg/m2 (24·0–24·4) in 2014 in men, and from 22·1 kg/m2 (21·7–22·5) in 1975 to 24·4 kg/m2 (24·2–24·6) in 2014 in women. Regional mean BMIs in 2014 for men ranged from 21·4 kg/m2 in central Africa and south Asia to 29·2 kg/m2 (28·6–29·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia; for women the range was from 21·8 kg/m2 (21·4–22·3) in south Asia to 32·2 kg/m2 (31·5–32·8) in Polynesia and Micronesia. Over these four decades, age-standardised global prevalence of underweight decreased from 13·8% (10·5–17·4) to 8·8% (7·4–10·3) in men and from 14·6% (11·6–17·9) to 9·7% (8·3–11·1) in women. South Asia had the highest prevalence of underweight in 2014, 23·4% (17·8–29·2) in men and 24·0% (18·9–29·3) in women. Age-standardised prevalence of obesity increased from 3·2% (2·4–4·1) in 1975 to 10·8% (9·7–12·0) in 2014 in men, and from 6·4% (5·1–7·8) to 14·9% (13·6–16·1) in women. 2·3% (2·0–2·7) of the world's men and 5·0% (4·4–5·6) of women were severely obese (ie, have BMI ≥35 kg/m2). Globally, prevalence of morbid obesity was 0·64% (0·46–0·86) in men and 1·6% (1·3–1·9) in women. Interpretation If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global obesity target is virtually zero. Rather, if these trends continue, by 2025, global obesity prevalence will reach 18% in men and surpass 21% in women; severe obesity will surpass 6% in men and 9% in women. Nonetheless, underweight remains prevalent in the world's poorest regions, especially in south Asia.

Filter for Car Tracking Based on Acceleration and Steering Angle

The motion of a car is described using a stochastic model in which the driving processes are the steering angle and the tangential acceleration. The model incorporates exactly the kinematic constraint that the wheels do not slip sideways. Two filters based on this model have been implemented, namely the standard EKF, and a new filter (the CUF) in which the expectation and the covariance of the system state are propagated accurately. Experiments show that i) the CUF is better than the EKF at predicting future positions of the car; and ii) the filter outputs can be used to control the measurement process, leading to improved ability to recover from errors in predictive tracking.

Model-based vehicle detection and classification using orthographic approximations

This paper reports the current state of work to simplify our previous model-based methods for visual tracking of vehicles for use in a real-time system intended to provide continuous monitoring and classification of traffic from a fixed camera on a busy multi-lane motorway. The main constraints of the system design were: (i) all low level processing to be carried out by low-cost auxiliary hardware, (ii) all 3-D reasoning to be carried out automatically off-line, at set-up time. The system developed uses three main stages: (i) pose and model hypothesis using 1-D templates, (ii) hypothesis tracking, and (iii) hypothesis verification, using 2-D templates. Stages (i) & (iii) have radically different computing performance and computational costs, and need to be carefully balanced for efficiency. Together, they provide an effective way to locate, track and classify vehicles.