How well can we measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography from space?

Recent gravity missions have produced a dramatic improvement in our ability to measure the ocean’s mean dynamic topography (MDT) from space. To fully exploit this oceanic observation, however, we must quantify its error. To establish a baseline, we first assess the error budget for an MDT calculated using a 3rd generation GOCE geoid and the CLS01 mean sea surface (MSS). With these products, we can resolve MDT spatial scales down to 250 km with an accuracy of 1.7 cm, with the MSS and geoid making similar contributions to the total error. For spatial scales within the range 133–250 km the error is 3.0 cm, with the geoid making the greatest contribution. For the smallest resolvable spatial scales (80–133 km) the total error is 16.4 cm, with geoid error accounting for almost all of this. Relative to this baseline, the most recent versions of the geoid and MSS fields reduce the long and short-wavelength errors by 0.9 and 3.2 cm, respectively, but they have little impact in the medium-wavelength band. The newer MSS is responsible for most of the long-wavelength improvement, while for the short-wavelength component it is the geoid. We find that while the formal geoid errors have reasonable global mean values they fail capture the regional variations in error magnitude, which depend on the steepness of the sea floor topography.

Seasonal trends in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater runoff in a subarctic catchment at Okstindan, Norway

Seasonal variations in the stable isotopic composition of snow and meltwater were investigated in a sub-arctic, mountainous, but non-glacial, catchment at Okstindan in northern Norway based on analyses of delta(18)O and deltaD. Samples were collected during four field periods (August 1998; April 1999; June 1999 and August 1999) at three sites lying on an altitudinal transect (740-970 m a.s.l.). Snowpack data display an increase in the mean values of delta(18)O (increasing from a mean value of - 13.51 to - 11.49% between April and August), as well as a decrease in variability through the melt period. Comparison with a regional meteoric water line indicates that the slope of the delta(18)O - deltaD line for the snowpacks decreases over the same period, dropping from 7.49 to approximately 6.2. This change points to the role of evaporation in snowpack ablation and is confirmed by the vertical profile of deuterium excess. Snowpack seepage data, although limited, also suggest reduced values of deltaD, as might be associated with local evaporation during meltwater generation. In general, meltwaters were depleted in delta(18)O relative to the source snowpack at the peak of the melt (June), but later in the year (August) the difference between the two was not statistically significant. The diurnal pattern of isotopic composition indicates that the most depleted meltwaters coincide with the peak in temperature and, hence, meltwater production.

Record of natural and anthropogenic changes in reef environments (Barbados West Indies) using laser ablation ICP-MS and sclerochronology on coral cores

Coral growth rate can be affected by environmental parameters such as seawater temperature, depth, and light intensity. The natural reef environment is also disturbed by human influences such as anthropogenic pollutants, which in Barbados are released close to the reefs. Here we describe a relatively new method of assessing the history of pollution and explain how these effects have influenced the coral communities off the west coast of Barbados. We evaluate the relative impact of both anthropogenic pollutants and natural stresses. Sclerochronology documents framework and skeletal growth rate and records pollution history (recorded as reduced growth) for a suite of sampled Montastraea annularis coral cores. X-radiography shows annual growth band patterns of the corals extending back over several decades and indicates significantly lower growth rate in polluted sites. Results using laser-ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) on the whole sample (aragonite, organic matter, trapped particulate matter, etc.), have shown contrasting concentrations of the trace elements (Cu, Sn, Zn, and Pb) between corals at different locations and within a single coral. Deepwater corals 7 km apart, record different levels of Pb and Sn, suggesting that a current transported the metal pollution in the water. In addition, the 1995 hurricanes are associated with anomalous values for Sn and Cu from most sites. These are believed to result from dispersion of nearshore polluted water. We compared the concentrations of trace elements in the coral growth of particular years to those in the relevant contemporaneous seawater. Mean values for the concentration factor in the coral, relative to the water, ranged from 10 for Cu and Ni to 2.4 and 0.7 for Cd and Zn, respectively. Although the uncertainties are large (60-80%), the coral record enabled us to demonstrate the possibility of calculating a history of seawater pollution for these elements from the 1940s to 1997. Our values were much higher than those obtained from analysis of carefully cleaned coral aragonite; they demonstrate the incorporation of more contamination including that from particulate material as well as dissolved metals.

Tolerance of ruminant animals to high dose in-feed administration of a selenium-enriched yeast

The objective of the study was to determine if there were adverse effects on animal health and performance when a range of ruminant animals species were fed at least 10 times the maximum permitted European Union (EU) selenium (Se) dietary inclusion rate (0.568 mg Se/kg DM) in the form of selenium enriched yeast (SY) derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae CNCM I-3060. In a series of studies, dairy cows, beef cattle, calves and lambs were offered either a control diet which contained no Se supplement or a treatment diet which contained the same basal feed ingredients plus a SY supplement which increased total dietary Se from 0.15 to 6.25, 0.20 to 6.74, 0.15 to 5.86 and 0.14 to 6.63 mg Se/kg DM, respectively. The inclusion of the SY supplement (P < 0.001) increased whole blood Se concentrations, reaching maximum mean values of 716, 1,505, 1,377, and 724 ng Se/mL for dairy cattle, beef cattle, calves and lambs, respectively. Selenomethionine accounted for 10% of total whole blood Se in control animals whereas the proportion in SY animals ranged between 40 and 75%. Glutathione peroxidase (EC 1.11.1.9) activity was higher (P < 0.05) in SY animals when compared with controls. A range of other biochemical and hematological parameters were assessed, but few differences of biological significance were established between treatments groups. There were no differences between treatment groups within each species with regard to animal physical performance or overall animal health. It was concluded that there were no adverse effects on animal health, performance and voluntary feed intake to the administration of at least ten times the EU maximum, or approximately twenty times the US FDA permitted concentration of dietary Se in the form of SY derived from a specific strain of Saccharomyces cerevisiae CNCM I-3060.

Stratospheric temperature trends: impact of ozone variability and the QBO

In most climate simulations used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2007 fourth assessment report, stratospheric processes are only poorly represented. For example, climatological or simple specifications of time-varying ozone concentrations are imposed and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of equatorial stratospheric zonal wind is absent. Here we investigate the impact of an improved stratospheric representation using two sets of perturbed simulations with the Hadley Centre coupled ocean atmosphere model HadGEM1 with natural and anthropogenic forcings for the 1979–2003 period. In the first set of simulations, the usual zonal mean ozone climatology with superimposed trends is replaced with a time series of observed zonal mean ozone distributions that includes interannual variability associated with the solar cycle, QBO and volcanic eruptions. In addition to this, the second set of perturbed simulations includes a scheme in which the stratospheric zonal wind in the tropics is relaxed to appropriate zonal mean values obtained from the ERA-40 re-analysis, thus forcing a QBO. Both of these changes are applied strictly to the stratosphere only. The improved ozone field results in an improved simulation of the stepwise temperature transitions observed in the lower stratosphere in the aftermath of the two major recent volcanic eruptions. The contribution of the solar cycle signal in the ozone field to this improved representation of the stepwise cooling is discussed. The improved ozone field and also the QBO result in an improved simulation of observed trends, both globally and at tropical latitudes. The Eulerian upwelling in the lower stratosphere in the equatorial region is enhanced by the improved ozone field and is affected by the QBO relaxation, yet neither induces a significant change in the upwelling trend.

A Bayesian approach for multi-model downscaling: Seasonal forecasting of regional rainfall and river flows in South America

This study addresses three issues: spatial downscaling, calibration, and combination of seasonal predictions produced by different coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models. It examines the feasibility Of using a Bayesian procedure for producing combined, well-calibrated downscaled seasonal rainfall forecasts for two regions in South America and river flow forecasts for the Parana river in the south of Brazil and the Tocantins river in the north of Brazil. These forecasts are important for national electricity generation management and planning. A Bayesian procedure, referred to here as forecast assimilation, is used to combine and calibrate the rainfall predictions produced by three climate models. Forecast assimilation is able to improve the skill of 3-month lead November-December-January multi-model rainfall predictions over the two South American regions. Improvements are noted in forecast seasonal mean values and uncertainty estimates. River flow forecasts are less skilful than rainfall forecasts. This is partially because natural river flow is a derived quantity that is sensitive to hydrological as well as meteorological processes, and to human intervention in the form of reservoir management.

Influence of foliar diseases and their control by fungicides on grain yield and quality in wheat

Twenty-eight field experiments on sandy-loam soils in the UK (1982-2003) are reviewed by relating the extension of the green area duration of the flag leaf (GLADF) by fungicides to effects on yield and quality of winter wheat. Over all experiments mean grain yield = 8.85t ha(-1) at 85% DM. With regards quality, mean values were: thousand grain weight (TGW) = 44.5 g; specific weight (SWT) = 76.9 kg hl(-1); crude protein concentration (CP (N x 5.7)) = 12.5 % DM; Hagberg falling number (HFN) = 285 s; and sodium dodecyl sulphate (SDS)-sedimentation volume = 69ml. For each day (d) that fungicides increased GLADF there were associated average increases in yield (0.144 1 ha(-1) d(-1), se 0.0049, df = 333), TGW (0.56 gd(-1), se = 0.017) and SWT (0.22 kg hl(-1) d(-1), se 0.011). Some curvature was evident in all these relationships. When GLADF was delayed beyond 700 degrees Cd after anthesis, as was possible in cool wet seasons, responses were curtailed, or less reliable. Despite this apparent terminal sink limitation, fungicide effects on sink size, eg endosperm cell numbers or maximum water mass per grain, were not prerequisites for large effects on grain yield, TGW or SWT. Fungicide effects on CP were variable. Although the average response of CP was negative (-0.029%DM/d; se = 0.00338), this depended on cultivar and disease controlled. Controlling biotrophs such as rusts, (Puccinia spp.) tended to increase CP, whereas controlling a more necrotrophic pathogen (Septoria tritici) usually reducedCP. Irrespective of pathogen controlled, delaying senescence of the flag leaf was associated with increased nitrogen yields in the grain (averaging 2.24 kg N ha-1 d(-1), se = 0.0848) due to both increased N uptake into the above ground crop, and also more efficient remobilisation of N from leaf laminas. When sulphur availability appeared to be adequate, fungicide x cultivar interactions were similar on S as for CP, although N:S ratios tended to decline (i.e. improve for bread making) when S. tritici was controlled. On average, SDS-sedimentation volume declined (-0. 18 ml/d, se = 0.027) with increased GLADF, broadly commensurate with the average effect on CP. Hagberg falling number decreased as fungicide increased GLADF (-2.73 s/d, se = 0.178), indicating an increase in alpha-amylase activity.

Inter-laboratory variation of in vitro cumulative gas production profiles of feeds using manual and automated methods

A study was conducted to estimate variation among laboratories and between manual and automated techniques of measuring pressure on the resulting gas production profiles (GPP). Eight feeds (molassed sugarbeet feed, grass silage, maize silage, soyabean hulls, maize gluten feed, whole crop wheat silage, wheat, glucose) were milled to pass a I mm screen and sent to three laboratories (ADAS Nutritional Sciences Research Unit, UK; Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research (IGER), UK; Wageningen University, The Netherlands). Each laboratory measured GPP over 144 h using standardised procedures with manual pressure transducers (MPT) and automated pressure systems (APS). The APS at ADAS used a pressure transducer and bottles in a shaking water bath, while the APS at Wageningen and IGER used a pressure sensor and bottles held in a stationary rack. Apparent dry matter degradability (ADDM) was estimated at the end of the incubation. GPP were fitted to a modified Michaelis-Menten model assuming a single phase of gas production, and GPP were described in terms of the asymptotic volume of gas produced (A), the time to half A (B), the time of maximum gas production rate (t(RM) (gas)) and maximum gas production rate (R-M (gas)). There were effects (P<0.001) of substrate on all parameters. However, MPT produced more (P<0.001) gas, but with longer (P<0.001) B and t(RM gas) (P<0.05) and lower (P<0.001) R-M gas compared to APS. There was no difference between apparatus in ADDM estimates. Interactions occurred between substrate and apparatus, substrate and laboratory, and laboratory and apparatus. However, when mean values for MPT were regressed from the individual laboratories, relationships were good (i.e., adjusted R-2 = 0.827 or higher). Good relationships were also observed with APS, although they were weaker than for MPT (i.e., adjusted R-2 = 0.723 or higher). The relationships between mean MPT and mean APS data were also good (i.e., adjusted R 2 = 0. 844 or higher). Data suggest that, although laboratory and method of measuring pressure are sources of variation in GPP estimation, it should be possible using appropriate mathematical models to standardise data among laboratories so that data from one laboratory could be extrapolated to others. This would allow development of a database of GPP data from many diverse feeds. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Transport impacts on atmosphere and climate: metrics

The transport sector emits a wide variety of gases and aerosols, with distinctly different characteristics which influence climate directly and indirectly via chemical and physical processes. Tools that allow these emissions to be placed on some kind of common scale in terms of their impact on climate have a number of possible uses such as: in agreements and emission trading schemes; when considering potential trade-offs between changes in emissions resulting from technological or operational developments; and/or for comparing the impact of different environmental impacts of transport activities. Many of the non-CO2 emissions from the transport sector are short-lived substances, not currently covered by the Kyoto Protocol. There are formidable difficulties in developing metrics and these are particularly acute for such short-lived species. One difficulty concerns the choice of an appropriate structure for the metric (which may depend on, for example, the design of any climate policy it is intended to serve) and the associated value judgements on the appropriate time periods to consider; these choices affect the perception of the relative importance of short- and long-lived species. A second difficulty is the quantification of input parameters (due to underlying uncertainty in atmospheric processes). In addition, for some transport-related emissions, the values of metrics (unlike the gases included in the Kyoto Protocol) depend on where and when the emissions are introduced into the atmosphere – both the regional distribution and, for aircraft, the distribution as a function of altitude, are important. In this assessment of such metrics, we present Global Warming Potentials (GWPs) as these have traditionally been used in the implementation of climate policy. We also present Global Temperature Change Potentials (GTPs) as an alternative metric, as this, or a similar metric may be more appropriate for use in some circumstances. We use radiative forcings and lifetimes from the literature to derive GWPs and GTPs for the main transport-related emissions, and discuss the uncertainties in these estimates. We find large variations in metric (GWP and GTP) values for NOx, mainly due to the dependence on location of emissions but also because of inter-model differences and differences in experimental design. For aerosols we give only global-mean values due to an inconsistent picture amongst available studies regarding regional dependence. The uncertainty in the presented metric values reflects the current state of understanding; the ranking of the various components with respect to our confidence in the given metric values is also given. While the focus is mostly on metrics for comparing the climate impact of emissions, many of the issues are equally relevant for stratospheric ozone depletion metrics, which are also discussed.

Unusually high differential attenuation at C band: Results from a two-year analysis of the French Trappes polarimetric radar data

The differential phase (ΦDP) measured by polarimetric radars is recognized to be a very good indicator of the path integrated by rain. Moreover, if a linear relationship is assumed between the specific differential phase (KDP) and the specific attenuation (AH) and specific differential attenuation (ADP), then attenuation can easily be corrected. The coefficients of proportionality, γH and γDP, are, however, known to be dependent in rain upon drop temperature, drop shapes, drop size distribution, and the presence of large drops causing Mie scattering. In this paper, the authors extensively apply a physically based method, often referred to as the “Smyth and Illingworth constraint,” which uses the constraint that the value of the differential reflectivity ZDR on the far side of the storm should be low to retrieve the γDP coefficient. More than 30 convective episodes observed by the French operational C-band polarimetric Trappes radar during two summers (2005 and 2006) are used to document the variability of γDP with respect to the intrinsic three-dimensional characteristics of the attenuating cells. The Smyth and Illingworth constraint could be applied to only 20% of all attenuated rays of the 2-yr dataset so it cannot be considered the unique solution for attenuation correction in an operational setting but is useful for characterizing the properties of the strongly attenuating cells. The range of variation of γDP is shown to be extremely large, with minimal, maximal, and mean values being, respectively, equal to 0.01, 0.11, and 0.025 dB °−1. Coefficient γDP appears to be almost linearly correlated with the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), and specific differential phase (KDP) and correlation coefficient (ρHV) of the attenuating cells. The temperature effect is negligible with respect to that of the microphysical properties of the attenuating cells. Unusually large values of γDP, above 0.06 dB °−1, often referred to as “hot spots,” are reported for 15%—a nonnegligible figure—of the rays presenting a significant total differential phase shift (ΔϕDP > 30°). The corresponding strongly attenuating cells are shown to have extremely high ZDR (above 4 dB) and ZH (above 55 dBZ), very low ρHV (below 0.94), and high KDP (above 4° km−1). Analysis of 4 yr of observed raindrop spectra does not reproduce such low values of ρHV, suggesting that (wet) ice is likely to be present in the precipitation medium and responsible for the attenuation and high phase shifts. Furthermore, if melting ice is responsible for the high phase shifts, this suggests that KDP may not be uniquely related to rainfall rate but can result from the presence of wet ice. This hypothesis is supported by the analysis of the vertical profiles of horizontal reflectivity and the values of conventional probability of hail indexes.

Representativity of in situ precipitation measurements - a case study for the LITFASS area in North-Eastern Germany

In situ precipitation measurements can extremely differ in space and time. Taking into account the limited spatial–temporal representativity and the uncertainty of a single station is important for validating mesoscale numerical model results as well as for interpreting remote sensing data. In situ precipitation data from a high resolution network in North-Eastern Germany are analysed to determine their temporal and spatial representativity. For the dry year 2003 precipitation amounts were available with 10 min resolution from 14 rain gauges distributed in an area of 25 km 25 km around the Meteorological Observatory Lindenberg (Richard-Aßmann Observatory). Our analysis reveals that short-term (up to 6 h) precipitation events dominate (94% of all events) and that the distribution is skewed with a high frequency of very low precipitation amounts. Long-lasting precipitation events are rare (6% of all precipitation events), but account for nearly 50% of the annual precipitation. The spatial representativity of a single-site measurement increases slightly for longer measurement intervals and the variability decreases. Hourly precipitation amounts are representative for an area of 11 km 11 km. Daily precipitation amounts appear to be reliable with an uncertainty factor of 3.3 for an area of 25 km 25 km, and weekly and monthly precipitation amounts have uncertainties of a factor of 2 and 1.4 when compared to 25 km 25 km mean values.

A comparison among four different retrieval methods for ice-cloud properties using data from CloudSat, CALIPSO, and MODIS

The A-Train constellation of satellites provides a new capability to measure vertical cloud profiles that leads to more detailed information on ice-cloud microphysical properties than has been possible up to now. A variational radar–lidar ice-cloud retrieval algorithm (VarCloud) takes advantage of the complementary nature of the CloudSat radar and Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO) lidar to provide a seamless retrieval of ice water content, effective radius, and extinction coefficient from the thinnest cirrus (seen only by the lidar) to the thickest ice cloud (penetrated only by the radar). In this paper, several versions of the VarCloud retrieval are compared with the CloudSat standard ice-only retrieval of ice water content, two empirical formulas that derive ice water content from radar reflectivity and temperature, and retrievals of vertically integrated properties from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) radiometer. The retrieved variables typically agree to within a factor of 2, on average, and most of the differences can be explained by the different microphysical assumptions. For example, the ice water content comparison illustrates the sensitivity of the retrievals to assumed ice particle shape. If ice particles are modeled as oblate spheroids rather than spheres for radar scattering then the retrieved ice water content is reduced by on average 50% in clouds with a reflectivity factor larger than 0 dBZ. VarCloud retrieves optical depths that are on average a factor-of-2 lower than those from MODIS, which can be explained by the different assumptions on particle mass and area; if VarCloud mimics the MODIS assumptions then better agreement is found in effective radius and optical depth is overestimated. MODIS predicts the mean vertically integrated ice water content to be around a factor-of-3 lower than that from VarCloud for the same retrievals, however, because the MODIS algorithm assumes that its retrieved effective radius (which is mostly representative of cloud top) is constant throughout the depth of the cloud. These comparisons highlight the need to refine microphysical assumptions in all retrieval algorithms and also for future studies to compare not only the mean values but also the full probability density function.

Canopy characteristics of contrasting clones of cacao (Theobroma cacao)

Canopy characteristics (leaf area index, fractional light interception, extinction coefficient) of mature trees of ten clonally propagated cacao cultivars were measured over a period of 14 months at an experimental site in Bahia, Brazil. Differences in leaf area index between clones became more pronounced over time. When an approximately constant leaf area index was reached (after about nine months), LAI varied between clones from 2.8 to 4.5. Clonal differences in the relationship between leaf area index and fractional light interception implied differences in canopy architecture, as reflected by the range of extinction coefficients (mean values ranged from 0.63 for the clone TSH-565 to 0.82 for CC-10). The results demonstrate the potential for breeding more photosynthetically efficient cacao canopies.

Design of a forecasting system for ECMWF

As laid out in its convention there are 8 different objectives for ECMWF. One of the major objectives will consist of the preparation, on a regular basis, of the data necessary for the preparation of medium-range weather forecasts. The interpretation of this item is that the Centre will make forecasts once a day for a prediction period of up to 10 days. It is also evident that the Centre should not carry out any real weather forecasting but merely disseminate to the member countries the basic forecasting parameters with an appropriate resolution in space and time. It follows from this that the forecasting system at the Centre must from the operational point of view be functionally integrated with the Weather Services of the Member Countries. The operational interface between ECMWF and the Member Countries must be properly specified in order to get a reasonable flexibility for both systems. The problem of making numerical atmospheric predictions for periods beyond 4-5 days differs substantially from 2-3 days forecasting. From the physical point we can define a medium range forecast as a forecast where the initial disturbances have lost their individual structure. However we are still interested to predict the atmosphere in a similar way as in short range forecasting which means that the model must be able to predict the dissipation and decay of the initial phenomena and the creation of new ones. With this definition, medium range forecasting is indeed very difficult and generally regarded as more difficult than extended forecasts, where we usually only predict time and space mean values. The predictability of atmospheric flow has been extensively studied during the last years in theoretical investigations and by numerical experiments. As has been discussed elsewhere in this publication (see pp 338 and 431) a 10-day forecast is apparently on the fringe of predictability.

A method for under-sampled ecological network data analysis: plant-pollination as case study

In this paper, we develop a method, termed the Interaction Distribution (ID) method, for analysis of quantitative ecological network data. In many cases, quantitative network data sets are under-sampled, i.e. many interactions are poorly sampled or remain unobserved. Hence, the output of statistical analyses may fail to differentiate between patterns that are statistical artefacts and those which are real characteristics of ecological networks. The ID method can support assessment and inference of under-sampled ecological network data. In the current paper, we illustrate and discuss the ID method based on the properties of plant-animal pollination data sets of flower visitation frequencies. However, the ID method may be applied to other types of ecological networks. The method can supplement existing network analyses based on two definitions of the underlying probabilities for each combination of pollinator and plant species: (1), pi,j: the probability for a visit made by the i’th pollinator species to take place on the j’th plant species; (2), qi,j: the probability for a visit received by the j’th plant species to be made by the i’th pollinator. The method applies the Dirichlet distribution to estimate these two probabilities, based on a given empirical data set. The estimated mean values for pi,j and qi,j reflect the relative differences between recorded numbers of visits for different pollinator and plant species, and the estimated uncertainty of pi,j and qi,j decreases with higher numbers of recorded visits.