The prediction of extratropical storm tracks by the ECMWF and NCEP ensemble prediction systems

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) has been investigated using an objective feature tracking methodology to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Overall the results show that the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of skill than the NCEP EPS in the northern hemisphere (NH). However in the southern hemisphere (SH), NCEP has higher predictive skill than ECMWF for the intensity of the cyclones. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. Further analysis shows that the predicted propagation speed of cyclones is generally too slow for the ECMWF EPS and show a slight bias for the intensity of the cyclones to be overpredicted. This is also true for the NCEP EPS in the SH. For the NCEP EPS in the NH the intensity of the cyclones is underpredicted. There is small bias in both the EPS for the cyclones to be displaced towards the poles. For each ensemble forecast of each cyclone, the predictive skill of the ensemble member that best predicts the cyclones position and intensity was computed. The results are very encouraging showing that the predictive skill of the best ensemble member is significantly higher than that of the control forecast in terms of both the position and intensity of the cyclones. The prediction of cyclones before they are identified as 850 hPa vorticity centers in the analysis cycle was also considered. It is shown that an indication of extratropical cyclones can be given by at least 1 ensemble member 7 days before they are identified in the analysis. Further analysis of the ECMWF EPS shows that the ensemble mean has a higher level of skill than the control forecast, particularly for the intensity of the cyclones, 2 from day 3 of the forecast. There is a higher level of skill in the NH than the SH and the spread in the SH is correspondingly larger. The difference between the ensemble mean and spread is very small for the position of the cyclones, but the spread of the ensemble is smaller than the ensemble mean error for the intensity of the cyclones in both hemispheres. Results also show that the ECMWF control forecast has ½ to 1 day more skill than the perturbed members, for both the position and intensity of the cyclones, throughout the forecast.

Molecular genetic differentiation in earthworms inhabiting a heterogeneous Pb-polluted landscape

A Pb-mine site situated on acidic soil, but comprising of Ca-enriched islands around derelict buildings was used to study the spatial pattern of genetic diversity in Lumbricus rubellus. Two distinct genetic lineages ('A' and 'B'), differentiated at both the mitochondrial (mtDNA COII) and nuclear level (AFLPs) were revealed with a mean inter-lineage mtDNA sequence divergence of approximately 13%, indicative of a cryptic species complex. AFLP analysis indicates that lineage A individuals within one central 'ecological island' site are uniquely clustered, with little genetic overlap with lineage A individuals at the two peripheral sites. FTIR microspectroscopy of Pb-sequestering chloragocytes revealed different phosphate profiles in residents of adjacent acidic and calcareous islands. Bioinformatics found over-representation of Ca pathway genes in ESTPb libraries. Subsequent sequencing of a Ca-transport gene, SERCA, revealed mutations in the protein's cytosolic domain. We recommend the mandatory genotyping of all individuals prior to field-based ecotoxicological assays, particularly those using discriminating genomic technologies.

Secular trends in daily precipitation characteristics: greenhouse gas simulation with a coupled AOGCM

Secular trends of daily precipitation characteristics are considered in the transient climate change experiment with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model ECHAM4/OPYC3 for 1900-2099. The climate forcing is due to increasing concentrations of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Mean daily precipitation, precipitation intensity, probability of wet days and parameters of the gamma distribution are analyzed. Particular attention is paid to the changes of heavy precipitation, Analysis of the annual mean precipitation trends for 1900-1999 revealed general agreement with observations with significant positive trends in mean precipitation over continental areas. In the 2000-2099 period precipitation trend patterns followed the tendency obtained for 1900-1999 but with significantly increased magnitudes. Unlike the annual mean precipitation trends for which negative values were found for some continental areas, the mean precipitation intensity and scale parameter of the fitted gamma distribution increased over all land territories . Negative trends in the number of wet days were found over most of the land areas except high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. The shape parameter of the gamma distribution in general revealed a slight negative trend in the areas of the precipitation increase. Investigation of daily precipitation revealed an unproportional increase of heavy precipitation events for the land areas including local maxima in Europe and the eastern United States.

Assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of auditory brainstem response

Abstract Background: The analysis of the Auditory Brainstem Response (ABR) is of fundamental importance to the investigation of the auditory system behaviour, though its interpretation has a subjective nature because of the manual process employed in its study and the clinical experience required for its analysis. When analysing the ABR, clinicians are often interested in the identification of ABR signal components referred to as Jewett waves. In particular, the detection and study of the time when these waves occur (i.e., the wave latency) is a practical tool for the diagnosis of disorders affecting the auditory system. Significant differences in inter-examiner results may lead to completely distinct clinical interpretations of the state of the auditory system. In this context, the aim of this research was to evaluate the inter-examiner agreement and variability in the manual classification of ABR. Methods: A total of 160 ABR data samples were collected, for four different stimulus intensity (80dBHL, 60dBHL, 40dBHL and 20dBHL), from 10 normal-hearing subjects (5 men and 5 women, from 20 to 52 years). Four examiners with expertise in the manual classification of ABR components participated in the study. The Bland-Altman statistical method was employed for the assessment of inter-examiner agreement and variability. The mean, standard deviation and error for the bias, which is the difference between examiners’ annotations, were estimated for each pair of examiners. Scatter plots and histograms were employed for data visualization and analysis. Results: In most comparisons the differences between examiner’s annotations were below 0.1 ms, which is clinically acceptable. In four cases, it was found a large error and standard deviation (>0.1 ms) that indicate the presence of outliers and thus, discrepancies between examiners. Conclusions: Our results quantify the inter-examiner agreement and variability of the manual analysis of ABR data, and they also allows for the determination of different patterns of manual ABR analysis.

The ocean’s role in setting the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone

Through study of observations and coupled climate simulations, it is argued that the mean position of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) north of the equator is a consequence of a northwards heat transport across the equator by ocean circulation. Observations suggest that the hemispheric net radiative forcing of climate at the top of the atmosphere is almost perfectly symmetric about the equator, and so the total (atmosphere plus ocean) heat transport across the equator is small (order 0.2 PW northwards). Due to the Atlantic ocean’s meridional overturning circulation, however, the ocean carries significantly more heat northwards across the equator (order 0.4 PW) than does the coupled system. There are two primary consequences. First, atmospheric heat transport is southwards across the equator to compensate (0.2 PW southwards), resulting in the ITCZ being displaced north of the equator. Second, the atmosphere, and indeed the ocean, is slightly warmer (by perhaps 2 °C) in the northern hemisphere than in the southern hemisphere. This leads to the northern hemisphere emitting slightly more outgoing longwave radiation than the southern hemisphere by virtue of its relative warmth, supporting the small northward heat transport by the coupled system across the equator. To conclude, the coupled nature of the problem is illustrated through study of atmosphere–ocean–ice simulations in the idealized setting of an aquaplanet, resolving the key processes at work.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in a multi-model ensemble

The modelled El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle interactions in 23 coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs, including the recent IPCC AR4 models, are assessed and compared to observations and theory. The models show a clear improvement over previous generations in simulating the tropical Pacific climatology. Systematic biases still include too strong mean and seasonal cycle of trade winds. El Nino amplitude is shown to be an inverse function of the mean trade winds in agreement with the observed shift of 1976 and with theoretical studies. El Nino amplitude is further shown to be an inverse function of the relative strength of the seasonal cycle. When most of the energy is within the seasonal cycle, little is left for inter-annual signals and vice versa. An interannual coupling strength (ICS) is defined and its relation with the modelled El Nino frequency is compared to that predicted by theoretical models. An assessment of the modelled El Nino in term of SST mode (S-mode) or thermocline mode (T-mode) shows that most models are locked into a S-mode and that only a few models exhibit a hybrid mode, like in observations. It is concluded that several basic El Nino-mean state-seasonal cycle relationships proposed by either theory or analysis of observations seem to be reproduced by CGCMs. This is especially true for the amplitude of El Nino and is less clear for its frequency. Most of these relationships, first established for the pre-industrial control simulations, hold for the double and quadruple CO2 stabilized scenarios. The models that exhibit the largest El Nino amplitude change in these greenhouse gas (GHG) increase scenarios are those that exhibit a mode change towards a T-mode (either from S-mode to hybrid or hybrid to T-mode). This follows the observed 1976 climate shift in the tropical Pacific, and supports the-still debated-finding of studies that associated this shift to increased GHGs. In many respects, these models are also among those that best simulate the tropical Pacific climatology (ECHAM5/MPI-OM, GFDL-CM2.0, GFDL-CM2.1, MRI-CGM2.3.2, UKMO-HadCM3). Results from this large subset of models suggest the likelihood of increased El Nino amplitude in a warmer climate, though there is considerable spread of El Nino behaviour among the models and the changes in the subsurface thermocline properties that may be important for El Nino change could not be assessed. There are no clear indications of an El Nino frequency change with increased GHG.

Predictions of the arrival time of coronal mass ejections at 1AU: an analysis of the causes of errors

Three existing models of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejection (ICME) transit between the Sun and the Earth are compared to coronagraph and in situ observations: all three models are found to perform with a similar level of accuracy (i.e. an average error between observed and predicted 1AU transit times of approximately 11 h). To improve long-term space weather prediction, factors influencing CME transit are investigated. Both the removal of the plane of sky projection (as suffered by coronagraph derived speeds of Earth directed CMEs) and the use of observed values of solar wind speed, fail to significantly improve transit time prediction. However, a correlation is found to exist between the late/early arrival of an ICME and the width of the preceding sheath region, suggesting that the error is a geometrical effect that can only be removed by a more accurate determination of a CME trajectory and expansion. The correlation between magnetic field intensity and speed of ejecta at 1AU is also investigated. It is found to be weak in the body of the ICME, but strong in the sheath, if the upstream solar wind conditions are taken into account.

Effects of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation

The effect of fluctuating daily surface fluxes on the time-mean oceanic circulation is studied using an empirical flux model. The model produces fluctuating fluxes resulting from atmospheric variability and includes oceanic feedbacks on the fluxes. Numerical experiments were carried out by driving an ocean general circulation model with three different versions of the empirical model. It is found that fluctuating daily fluxes lead to an increase in the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the Atlantic of about 1 Sv and a decrease in the Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC) of about 32 Sv. The changes are approximately 7% of the MOC and 16% of the ACC obtained without fluctuating daily fluxes. The fluctuating fluxes change the intensity and the depth of vertical mixing. This, in turn, changes the density field and thus the circulation. Fluctuating buoyancy fluxes change the vertical mixing in a non-linear way: they tend to increase the convective mixing in mostly stable regions and to decrease the convective mixing in mostly unstable regions. The ACC changes are related to the enhanced mixing in the subtropical and the mid-latitude Southern Ocean and reduced mixing in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. The enhanced mixing is related to an increase in the frequency and the depth of convective events. As these events bring more dense water downward, the mixing changes lead to a reduction in meridional gradient of the depth-integrated density in the Southern Ocean and hence the strength of the ACC. The MOC changes are related to more subtle density changes. It is found that the vertical mixing in a latitudinal strip in the northern North Atlantic is more strongly enhanced due to fluctuating fluxes than the mixing in a latitudinal strip in the South Atlantic. This leads to an increase in the density difference between the two strips, which can be responsible for the increase in the Atlantic MOC.

Changes in light intensity during the rearing period can influence egg production in domestic fowl

1. A total of 240 Shaver White and 240 ISA Brown pullets that had been reared in multi-bird cages on a 10-h photoperiod, and maintained at a light intensity of 3 or 25 lux, or changed from 3 to 25 lux or from 25 to 3 lux at 9 or 16 weeks of age, were moved into individual-bird cages at 20 weeks and transferred to 15-h photoperiods at 25 lux. 2. In both breeds, birds transferred from 3 to 25 lux at 16 or 20 weeks laid significantly more eggs than birds maintained on the brighter intensity from one day or increased to it at 9 weeks. 3. Mean egg weight, shell deformation, albumen height, feed intake and body weight gain in lay were not significantly affected by the light intensity treatments during the rearing period. There was, however, a small, but significant, negative correlation of egg numbers with mean egg weight, although this only partially explained the difference in egg numbers. The differences in egg production were unrelated to rate of sexual maturation.

Inter-laboratory variation of in vitro cumulative gas production profiles of feeds using manual and automated methods

A study was conducted to estimate variation among laboratories and between manual and automated techniques of measuring pressure on the resulting gas production profiles (GPP). Eight feeds (molassed sugarbeet feed, grass silage, maize silage, soyabean hulls, maize gluten feed, whole crop wheat silage, wheat, glucose) were milled to pass a I mm screen and sent to three laboratories (ADAS Nutritional Sciences Research Unit, UK; Institute of Grassland and Environmental Research (IGER), UK; Wageningen University, The Netherlands). Each laboratory measured GPP over 144 h using standardised procedures with manual pressure transducers (MPT) and automated pressure systems (APS). The APS at ADAS used a pressure transducer and bottles in a shaking water bath, while the APS at Wageningen and IGER used a pressure sensor and bottles held in a stationary rack. Apparent dry matter degradability (ADDM) was estimated at the end of the incubation. GPP were fitted to a modified Michaelis-Menten model assuming a single phase of gas production, and GPP were described in terms of the asymptotic volume of gas produced (A), the time to half A (B), the time of maximum gas production rate (t(RM) (gas)) and maximum gas production rate (R-M (gas)). There were effects (P<0.001) of substrate on all parameters. However, MPT produced more (P<0.001) gas, but with longer (P<0.001) B and t(RM gas) (P<0.05) and lower (P<0.001) R-M gas compared to APS. There was no difference between apparatus in ADDM estimates. Interactions occurred between substrate and apparatus, substrate and laboratory, and laboratory and apparatus. However, when mean values for MPT were regressed from the individual laboratories, relationships were good (i.e., adjusted R-2 = 0.827 or higher). Good relationships were also observed with APS, although they were weaker than for MPT (i.e., adjusted R-2 = 0.723 or higher). The relationships between mean MPT and mean APS data were also good (i.e., adjusted R 2 = 0. 844 or higher). Data suggest that, although laboratory and method of measuring pressure are sources of variation in GPP estimation, it should be possible using appropriate mathematical models to standardise data among laboratories so that data from one laboratory could be extrapolated to others. This would allow development of a database of GPP data from many diverse feeds. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Air flow influences on local climate: observed and simulated mean relationships for the United Kingdom

Synoptic-scale air flow variability over the United Kingdom is measured on a daily time scale by following previous work to define 3 indices: geostrophic flow strength, vorticity and direction. Comparing the observed distribution of air flow index values with those determined from a simulation with the Hadley Centre’s global climate model (HadCM2) identifies some minor systematic biases in the model’s synoptic circulation but demonstrates that the major features are well simulated. The relationship between temperature and precipitation from parts of the United Kingdom and these air flow indices (either singly or in pairs) is found to be very similar in both the observations and model output; indeed the simulated and observed precipitation relationships are found to be almost interchangeable in a quantitative sense. These encouraging results imply that some reliability can be assumed for single grid-box and regional output from this climate model; this applies only to those grid boxes evaluated here (which do not have high or complex orography), only to the portion of variability that is controlled by synoptic air flow variations, and only to those surface variables considered here (temperature and precipitation).

Multi-satellite observed responses of precipitation and its extremes to interannual climate variability

The consistency of precipitation variability estimated from the multiple satellite-based observing systems is assessed. There is generally good agreement between TRMM TMI, SSM/I, GPCP and AMSRE datasets for the inter-annual variability of precipitation since 1997 but the HOAPS dataset appears to overestimate the magnitude of variability. Over the tropical ocean the TRMM 3B42 dataset produces unrealistic variabilitys. Based upon deseasonalised GPCP data for the period 1998-2008, the sensitivity of global mean precipitation (P) to surface temperature (T) changes (dP/dT) is about 6%/K, although a smaller sensitivity of 3.6%/K is found using monthly GPCP data over the longer period 1989-2008. Over the tropical oceans dP/dT ranges from 10-30%/K depending upon time-period and dataset while over tropical land dP/dT is -8 to -11%/K for the 1998-2008 period. Analyzing the response of the tropical ocean precipitation intensity distribution to changes in T we find the wetter area P shows a strong positive response to T of around 20%/K. The response over the drier tropical regimes is less coherent and varies with datasets, but responses over the tropical land show significant negative relationships over an interannual time-scale. The spatial and temporal resolutions of the datasets strongly influence the precipitation responses over the tropical oceans and help explain some of the discrepancy between different datasets. Consistency between datasets is found to increase on averaging from daily to 5-day time-scales and considering a 1o (or coarser) spatial resolution. Defining the wet and dry tropical ocean regime by the 60th percentile of P intensity, the 5-day average, 1o TMI data exhibits a coherent drying of the dry regime at the rate of -20%/K and the wet regime becomes wetter at a similar rate with warming.

An investigation of the impact of time of generation on carbon savings from PV systems in Great Britain

PV only generates electricity during daylight hours and primarily generates over summer. In the UK, the carbon intensity of grid electricity is higher during the daytime and over winter. This work investigates whether the grid electricity displaced by PV is high or low carbon compared to the annual mean carbon intensity using carbon factors at higher temporal resolutions (half-hourly and daily). UK policy for carbon reporting requires savings to be calculated using the annual mean carbon intensity of grid electricity. This work offers an insight into whether this technique is appropriate. Using half hourly data on the generating plant supplying the grid from November 2008 to May 2010, carbon factors for grid electricity at half-hourly and daily resolution have been derived using technology specific generation emission factors. Applying these factors to generation data from PV systems installed on schools, it is possible to assess the variation in the carbon savings from displacing grid electricity with PV generation using carbon factors with different time resolutions. The data has been analyzed for a period of 363 to 370 days and so cannot account for inter-year variations in the relationship between PV generation and carbon intensity of the electricity grid. This analysis suggests that PV displaces more carbon intensive electricity using half-hourly carbon factors than using daily factors but less compared with annual ones. A similar methodology could provide useful insights on other variable renewable and demand-side technologies and in other countries where PV performance and grid behavior are different.