Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sediment magnetic properties of glacial till deposited since the Little Ice Age maximum for selected glaciers at Svartisen and Okstindan, northern Norway

Samples of glacial till deposited since the Little Ice Age (LIA) maximum by two glaciers, North Bogbre at Svartisen and Corneliussen-breen at Okstindan, northern Norway, were obtained from transects running from the current glacier snout to the LIA (c. AD 1750) limit. The samples were analysed to determine their sediment magnetic properties, which display considerable variability. Significant trends in some magnetic parameters are evident with distance from the glacier margin and hence length of subaerial exposure. Magnetic susceptibility (X) decreases away from the contemporary snout, perhaps due to the weathering of ferrimagnetic minerals into antiferromagnetic forms, although this trend is generally not statistically significant. Trends in the ratios of soft IRM/hard IRM which are statistically significant support this hypothesis, suggesting that antiferromagnetic minerals are increasing relative to ferrimagnetic minerals towards the LIA maximum. Backfield ratios (IRM -100 mT/SIRM) also display a significant and strong trend towards magnetically harder behaviour with proximity to the LIA maximum. Thus, by employing a chronosequence approach, it may be possible to use sediment magnetics data as a tool for reconstructing glacier retreat in areas where more traditional techniques, such as lichenometry, are not applicable.

Comparing sampling needs for variograms of soil properties computed by the method of moments and residual maximum likelihood

It has been generally accepted that the method of moments (MoM) variogram, which has been widely applied in soil science, requires about 100 sites at an appropriate interval apart to describe the variation adequately. This sample size is often larger than can be afforded for soil surveys of agricultural fields or contaminated sites. Furthermore, it might be a much larger sample size than is needed where the scale of variation is large. A possible alternative in such situations is the residual maximum likelihood (REML) variogram because fewer data appear to be required. The REML method is parametric and is considered reliable where there is trend in the data because it is based on generalized increments that filter trend out and only the covariance parameters are estimated. Previous research has suggested that fewer data are needed to compute a reliable variogram using a maximum likelihood approach such as REML, however, the results can vary according to the nature of the spatial variation. There remain issues to examine: how many fewer data can be used, how should the sampling sites be distributed over the site of interest, and how do different degrees of spatial variation affect the data requirements? The soil of four field sites of different size, physiography, parent material and soil type was sampled intensively, and MoM and REML variograms were calculated for clay content. The data were then sub-sampled to give different sample sizes and distributions of sites and the variograms were computed again. The model parameters for the sets of variograms for each site were used for cross-validation. Predictions based on REML variograms were generally more accurate than those from MoM variograms with fewer than 100 sampling sites. A sample size of around 50 sites at an appropriate distance apart, possibly determined from variograms of ancillary data, appears adequate to compute REML variograms for kriging soil properties for precision agriculture and contaminated sites. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimating the spatial scale of herbicide and soil interactions by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

An unbalanced nested sampling design was used to investigate the spatial scale of soil and herbicide interactions at the field scale. A hierarchical analysis of variance based on residual maximum likelihood (REML) was used to analyse the data and provide a first estimate of the variogram. Soil samples were taken at 108 locations at a range of separating distances in a 9 ha field to explore small and medium scale spatial variation. Soil organic matter content, pH, particle size distribution, microbial biomass and the degradation and sorption of the herbicide, isoproturon, were determined for each soil sample. A large proportion of the spatial variation in isoproturon degradation and sorption occurred at sampling intervals less than 60 m, however, the sampling design did not resolve the variation present at scales greater than this. A sampling interval of 20-25 m should ensure that the main spatial structures are identified for isoproturon degradation rate and sorption without too great a loss of information in this field.

Estimating the spatial scales of regionalized variables by nested sampling, hierarchical analysis of variance and residual maximum likelihood

The variogram is essential for local estimation and mapping of any variable by kriging. The variogram itself must usually be estimated from sample data. The sampling density is a compromise between precision and cost, but it must be sufficiently dense to encompass the principal spatial sources of variance. A nested, multi-stage, sampling with separating distances increasing in geometric progression from stage to stage will do that. The data may then be analyzed by a hierarchical analysis of variance to estimate the components of variance for every stage, and hence lag. By accumulating the components starting from the shortest lag one obtains a rough variogram for modest effort. For balanced designs the analysis of variance is optimal; for unbalanced ones, however, these estimators are not necessarily the best, and the analysis by residual maximum likelihood (REML) will usually be preferable. The paper summarizes the underlying theory and illustrates its application with data from three surveys, one in which the design had four stages and was balanced and two implemented with unbalanced designs to economize when there were more stages. A Fortran program is available for the analysis of variance, and code for the REML analysis is listed in the paper. (c) 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The significance of volcanic eruption strength and frequency for climate

A simple physical model of the atmospheric effects of large explosive volcanic eruptions is developed. Using only one input parameter - the initial amount of sulphur dioxide injected into the stratosphere - the global-average stratospheric optical-depth perturbation and surface temperature response are modelled. The simplicity of this model avoids issues of incomplete data (applicable to more comprehensive models), making it a powerful and useful tool for atmospheric diagnostics of this climate forcing mechanism. It may also provide a computationally inexpensive and accurate way of introducing volcanic activity into larger climate models. The modelled surface temperature response for an initial sulphur-dioxide injection, coupled with emission-history statistics, is used to demonstrate that the most climatically significant volcanic eruptions are those of sufficient explosivity to just reach into the stratosphere (and achieve longevity). This study also highlights the fact that this measure of significance is highly sensitive to the representation of the climatic response and the frequency data used, and that we are far from producing a definitive history of explosive volcanism for at least the past 1000 years. Given this high degree of uncertainty, these results suggest that eruptions that release around and above 0.1 Mt SO2 into the stratosphere have the maximum climatic impact.

The rise and fall of open solar flux during the current grand solar maximum

We use geomagnetic activity data to study the rise and fall over the past century of the solar wind flow speed VSW, the interplanetary magnetic field strength B, and the open solar flux FS. Our estimates include allowance for the kinematic effect of longitudinal structure in the solar wind flow speed. As well as solar cycle variations, all three parameters show a long-term rise during the first half of the 20th century followed by peaks around 1955 and 1986 and then a recent decline. Cosmogenic isotope data reveal that this constitutes a grand maximum of solar activity which began in 1920, using the definition that such grand maxima are when 25-year averages of the heliospheric modulation potential exceeds 600 MV. Extrapolating the linear declines seen in all three parameters since 1985, yields predictions that the grand maximum will end in the years 2013, 2014, or 2027 using VSW, FS, or B, respectively. These estimates are consistent with predictions based on the probability distribution of the durations of past grand solar maxima seen in cosmogenic isotope data. The data contradict any suggestions of a floor to the open solar flux: we show that the solar minimum open solar flux, kinematically corrected to allow for the excess flux effect, has halved over the past two solar cycles.

The climatic effects of the direct injection of water vapour into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions

We describe a novel mechanism that can significantly lower the amplitude of the climatic response to certain large volcanic eruptions and examine its impact with a coupled ocean-atmosphere climate model. If sufficiently large amounts of water vapour enter the stratosphere, a climatically significant amount of water vapour can be left over in the lower stratosphere after the eruption, even after sulphate aerosol formation. This excess stratospheric humidity warms the tropospheric climate, and acts to balance the climatic cooling induced by the volcanic aerosol, especially because the humidity anomaly lasts for a period that is longer than the residence time of aerosol in the stratosphere. In particular, northern hemisphere high latitude cooling is reduced in magnitude. We discuss this mechanism in the context of the discrepancy between the observed and modelled cooling following the Krakatau eruption in 1883. We hypothesize that moist coignimbrite plumes caused by pyroclastic flows travelling over ocean rather than land, resulting from an eruption close enough to the ocean, might provide the additional source of stratospheric water vapour.

The long-term effect of active immunization against inhibin in goats

This experiment addresses the long-term effect of active immunization of goats against a recombinant ovine inhibin alpha subunit (roIHN-alpha). In late anestrus 100 mu g of roINH-alpha was administered to 40 pluriparous Boer goat does, followed, 4 weeks later, by a booster injection. Weekly blood samples were drawn to monitor the inhibin binding capacity with the aid of a radio-tracer binding assay. From the onset until 48 h after the end of each estrus, follicular development and ovulation rate were monitored at 24 h intervals by transrectal ultrasonography. Beginning in August and continuing into January, does were mated at every other estrus, and submitted to transcervical embryo collection. Seven months after the first immunization, the does were mated again and permitted to carry to term. All immunized does produced inhibin antibodies, an elevated titre being first detected 2 weeks after primary immunization. Maximum titres were reached after 6 weeks, i.e. 2 weeks after the booster injection. Thereafter, in the course of the following 32 weeks, the titre subsided gradually. The does started cycling by mid-August. At that stage the average number of follicles more than 4 mm in diameter, ovulations and total embryos and ova recovered were 14.7 (+/- 2.3), 5.3 (+/- 0.7) and 4.4 (+/- 1.0), respectively. A steady decline followed and in January the corresponding means were: 5.2 (+/- 0.6) follicles, 3.1 (+/- 0.6) ovulations and 1.2 (+/- 0.4) embryos and ova recovered. When mated toward the end of the breeding season, 85% of the does became pregnant to the first mating and 73% went to term. Healthy kids were born, the average litter size being 2.2 (+/- 0.1). In conclusion, immunization of goats against a recombinant inhibin alpha-subunit proved to be a practicable means of producing embryos for transfer purposes. After about half a year, when the inhibin antibody titre has subsided, it is possible to return the does to the breeding flock without risking complications with normal breeding activity. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Superovulation and embryo collection in nulliparous Boer goat does immunized against a recombinant ovine alpha-subunit inhibin

With the purpose of eliciting a superovulatory response, 12 adult nulliparous Boer goat does were actively immunized against a recombinant a-subunit of ovine inhibin (roIHN-alpha; two injections of 100 mg 4 weeks apart). Another 12 control Boer goat does were treated with physiological saline and acted as controls. One year later the immunized animals were boostered by the administration of another dose (100 mg) of the immunogen. Following treatment, blood samples were collected twice weekly for the periods of 16 and 12 weeks, respectively, to monitor the inhibin binding ability with the aid of a radio-tracer binding assay. Throughout the experiment, estrus detection was conducted twice daily with the aid of an aproned intact buck. From the first day after treatment to 48 h after standing estrus, ovarian activity was monitored daily by transrectal ultrasonography. On alternate estrous cycles, does were mated and 6 days later flushed transcervically to recover embryos. All goats treated with the roIHN-alpha produced antibodies reactive to the native bovine inhibin tracer-the titre increasing from 2.9 +/- 0.4 to a maximum of 21.9 +/- 2.9% binding after the second injection. The antibody titre gradually subsided over the next 16 weeks. The booster injection restored an elevated antibody titre (11.7 +/- 0.4%), which was maintained until the end of the sampling period 12 weeks later. In the control goats only trace amounts of antibody were recorded throughout the trial. In the roIHN-alpha-immunized goats the number of follicles reaching a diameter of > 4 mm was 14.6 +/- 1.2 per doe. A positive correlation was recorded between the follicle number and antibody titre (r=0.61; P < 0.01). The number of follicles ovulating per doe (6.9 +/- 0.7) followed the same tendency-however, the proportion decreased with increasing follicle numbers. A relatively weak correlation was recorded between the inhibin binding ability and number of ovulations (r=0.27; P < 0.05). In the control goats the majority (92%) of follicles exceeding 4 mm in diameter ovulated (2.5 +/- 0.1 follicles/doe). Embryo collection proved unsatisfactory (42% versus 39% recovery for immunized and control animals, respectively)-presumably because the uterine lumen of the nulliparous does was too narrow to permit effective flushing. In the group of immunized goats the occurrence of short estrous cycles (< 15 days) recorded was 34% versus only 6% in the controls. Overall, immunization of goats against roIHN-alpha led to an almost six-fold increase in number of ovarian follicles, a three-fold increase in ovulations and, despite the low recovery rate, a more than three-fold increase in ova or embryos recovered. It may be concluded that treatment of female goats with roIHN-alpha leads to an inhibin antibody response, accompanied by enhanced ovarian activity. The response was, however, accompanied by a large proportion of retained follicles and a high incidence of short estrous cycles. These problems need to be further investigated before rendering the method fit for application in embryo transfer programs in goats. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Engineering Pt in ceria for a maximum metal-support interaction in catalysis

Conventional supported metal catalysts are metal nanoparticles deposited on high surface area oxide supports with a poorly defined metal−support interface. Typically, the traditionally prepared Pt/ceria catalyzes both methanation (H2/CO to CH4) and water−gas shift (CO/H2O to CO2/H2) reactions. By using simple nanochemistry techniques, we show for the first time that Pt or PtAu metal can be created inside each CeO2 particle with tailored dimensions. The encapsulated metal is shown to interact with the thin CeO2 overlayer in each single particle in an optimum geometry to create a unique interface, giving high activity and excellent selectivity for the water−gas shift reaction, but is totally inert for methanation. Thus, this work clearly demonstrates the significance of nanoengineering of a single catalyst particle by a bottom-up construction approach in modern catalyst design which could enable exploitation of catalyst site differentiation, leading to new catalytic properties.