The impact of 21st century Arctic sea ice decline on the climate and mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet and Svalbard’s glaciers and ice caps

The Arctic is a region particularly susceptible to rapid climate change. General circulation models (GCMs) suggest a polar amplification of any global warming signal by a factor of about 1.5 due, in part, to sea ice feedbacks. The dramatic recent decline in multi-year sea ice cover lies outside the standard deviation of the CMIP3 ensemble GCM predictions. Sea ice acts as a barrier between cold air and warmer oceans during winter, as well as inhibiting evaporation from the ocean surface water during the summer. An ice free Arctic would likely have an altered hydrological cycle with more evaporation from the ocean surface leading to changes in precipitation distribution and amount. Using the U.K. Met Office Regional Climate Model (RCM), HadRM3, the atmospheric effects of the observed and projected reduction in Arctic sea ice are investigated. The RCM is driven by the atmospheric GCM HadAM3. Both models are forced with sea surface temperature and sea ice for the period 2061-2090 from the CMIP3 HadGEM1 experiments. Here we use an RCM at 50km resolution over the Arctic and 25km over Svalbard, which captures well the present-day pattern of precipitation and provides a detailed picture of the projected changes in the behaviour of the oceanic-atmosphere moisture fluxes and how they affect precipitation. These experiments show that the projected 21stCentury sea ice decline alone causes large impacts to the surface mass balance (SMB) on Svalbard. However Greenland’s SMB is not significantly affected by sea ice decline alone, but responds with a strongly negative shift in SMB when changes to SST are incorporated into the experiments. This is the first study to characterise the impact of changes in future sea ice to Arctic terrestrial cryosphere mass balance.

Propeptide-mediated inhibition of myostatin increases muscle mass through inhibiting proteolytic pathways in aged mice

Mammalian aging is accompanied by a progressive loss of skeletal muscle, a process called sarcopenia. Myostatin, a secreted member of the transforming growth factor-β family of signaling molecules, has been shown to be a potent inhibitor of muscle growth. Here, we examined whether muscle growth could be promoted in aged animals by antagonizing the activity of myostatin through the neutralizing activity of the myostatin propeptide. We show that a single injection of an AAV8 virus expressing the myostatin propeptide induced an increase in whole body weights and all muscles examined within 7 weeks of treatment. Our cellular studies demonstrate that muscle enlargement was due to selective fiber type hypertrophy, which was accompanied by a shift toward a glycolytic phenotype. Our molecular investigations elucidate the mechanism underpinning muscle hypertrophy by showing a decrease in the expression of key genes that control ubiquitin-mediated protein breakdown. Most importantly, we show that the hypertrophic muscle that develops as a consequence of myostatin propeptide in aged mice has normal contractile properties. We suggest that attenuating myostatin signaling could be a very attractive strategy to halt and possibly reverse age-related muscle loss.

Statistical inference of OH concentrations and air mass dilution rates from successive observations of non-methane hydrocarbons in single air masses

Bayesian inference has been used to determine rigorous estimates of hydroxyl radical concentrations () and air mass dilution rates (K) averaged following air masses between linked observations of nonmethane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) spanning the North Atlantic during the Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT)-Lagrangian-2K4 experiment. The Bayesian technique obtains a refined (posterior) distribution of a parameter given data related to the parameter through a model and prior beliefs about the parameter distribution. Here, the model describes hydrocarbon loss through OH reaction and mixing with a background concentration at rate K. The Lagrangian experiment provides direct observations of hydrocarbons at two time points, removing assumptions regarding composition or sources upstream of a single observation. The estimates are sharpened by using many hydrocarbons with different reactivities and accounting for their variability and measurement uncertainty. A novel technique is used to construct prior background distributions of many species, described by variation of a single parameter . This exploits the high correlation of species, related by the first principal component of many NMHC samples. The Bayesian method obtains posterior estimates of , K and following each air mass. Median values are typically between 0.5 and 2.0 × 106 molecules cm−3, but are elevated to between 2.5 and 3.5 × 106 molecules cm−3, in low-level pollution. A comparison of estimates from absolute NMHC concentrations and NMHC ratios assuming zero background (the “photochemical clock” method) shows similar distributions but reveals systematic high bias in the estimates from ratios. Estimates of K are ∼0.1 day−1 but show more sensitivity to the prior distribution assumed.

General relationships between pressure, weight, and mass of a hydrostatic fluid

In curved geometries the hydrostatic pressure in a fluid does not equal the weight per unit area of the fluid above it. General weight–pressure and mass–pressure relationships for hydrostatic fluids in any geometry are derived. As an example of the mass–pressure relationship, we find a geometric reduction in surface pressure as large as 5 mbar on Earth and 39 mbar on Titan. We also present a thermodynamic interpretation of the geometric correction which, as a corollary, provides an independent proof of the hydrostatic relationship for general geometries.

Impact of mass lumping on gravity and Rossby waves in 2D finite-element shallow-water models

The goal of this study is to evaluate the effect of mass lumping on the dispersion properties of four finite-element velocity/surface-elevation pairs that are used to approximate the linear shallow-water equations. For each pair, the dispersion relation, obtained using the mass lumping technique, is computed and analysed for both gravity and Rossby waves. The dispersion relations are compared with those obtained for the consistent schemes (without lumping) and the continuous case. The P0-P1, RT0 and P-P1 pairs are shown to preserve good dispersive properties when the mass matrix is lumped. Test problems to simulate fast gravity and slow Rossby waves are in good agreement with the analytical results.

Shear controlled crystal size definition in a low molar mass compound using a polymeric solvent

We show that close to monodisperse crystalline fibrils of dibenzylidene sorbitol can be obtained by preparation in a polymeric solvent subjected to extended shear flow.

A review of the theoretical basis for bulk mass flux convective parameterization

Most parameterizations for precipitating convection in use today are bulk schemes, in which an ensemble of cumulus elements with different properties is modelled as a single, representative entraining-detraining plume. We review the underpinning mathematical model for such parameterizations, in particular by comparing it with spectral models in which elements are not combined into the representative plume. The chief merit of a bulk model is that the representative plume can be described by an equation set with the same structure as that which describes each element in a spectral model. The equivalence relies on an ansatz for detrained condensate introduced by Yanai et al. (1973) and on a simplified microphysics. There are also conceptual differences in the closure of bulk and spectral parameterizations. In particular, we show that the convective quasi-equilibrium closure of Arakawa and Schubert (1974) for spectral parameterizations cannot be carried over to a bulk parameterization in a straightforward way. Quasi-equilibrium of the cloud work function assumes a timescale separation between a slow forcing process and a rapid convective response. But, for the natural bulk analogue to the cloud-work function (the dilute CAPE), the relevant forcing is characterised by a different timescale, and so its quasi-equilibrium entails a different physical constraint. Closures of bulk parameterization that use the non-entraining parcel value of CAPE do not suffer from this timescale issue. However, the Yanai et al. (1973) ansatz must be invoked as a necessary ingredient of those closures.

Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

Mass and size distribution measurement of particulates from a gas turbine combustor using modern mobility analyzer and particle sizer

SMPS and DMS500 analysers were used to measure particulate size distributions in the exhaust of a fully annular aero gas turbine engine at two operating conditions to compare and analyse sources of discrepancy. A number of different dilution ratio values were utilised for the comparative analysis, and a Dekati hot diluter operating at a temperature of 623°K was also utilised to remove volatile PM prior to measurements being made. Additional work focused on observing the effect of varying the sample line temperatures to ascertain the impact. Explanations are offered for most of the trends observed, although a new, repeatable event identified in the range from 417°K to 423°K – where there was a three order of magnitude increase in the nucleation mode of the sample – requires further study.

Over-parameterised, uncertain 'mathematical marionettes' - How can we best use catchment water quality models? An example of an 80-year catchment-scale nutrient balance

The Integrated Catchment Model of Nitrogen (INCA-N) was applied to the River Lambourn, a Chalk river-system in southern England. The model's abilities to simulate the long-term trend and seasonal patterns in observed stream water nitrate concentrations from 1920 to 2003 were tested. This is the first time a semi-distributed, daily time-step model has been applied to simulate such a long time period and then used to calculate detailed catchment nutrient budgets which span the conversion of pasture to arable during the late 1930s and 1940s. Thus, this work goes beyond source apportionment and looks to demonstrate how such simulations can be used to assess the state of the catchment and develop an understanding of system behaviour. The mass-balance results from 1921, 1922, 1991, 2001 and 2002 are presented and those for 1991 are compared to other modelled and literature values of loads associated with nitrogen soil processes and export. The variations highlighted the problem of comparing modelled fluxes with point measurements but proved useful for identifying the most poorly understood inputs and processes thereby providing an assessment of input data and model structural uncertainty. The modelled terrestrial and instream mass-balances also highlight the importance of the hydrological conditions in pollutant transport. Between 1922 and 2002, increased inputs of nitrogen from fertiliser, livestock and deposition have altered the nitrogen balance with a shift from possible reduction in soil fertility but little environmental impact in 1922, to a situation of nitrogen accumulation in the soil, groundwater and instream biota in 2002. In 1922 and 2002 it was estimated that approximately 2 and 18 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1) respectively were exported from the land to the stream. The utility of the approach and further considerations for the best use of models are discussed. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Searching for the perfect surface area normalizing term - a comparison of BET surface area-, geometric surface area- and mass-normalized dissolution rates of anorthite and biotite

Dissolution rates were calculated for a range of grain sizes of anorthite and biotite dissolved under far from equilibrium conditions at pH 3, T = 20 degrees C. Dissolution rates were normalized to initial and final BET surface area, geometric surface area, mass and (for biotite only) geometric edge surface area. Constant (within error) dissolution rates were only obtained by normalizing to initial BET surface area for biotite. The normalizing term that gave the smallest variation about the mean for anorthite was initial BET surface area. In field studies, only current (final) surface area is measurable. In this study, final geometric surface area gave the smallest variation for anorthite dissolution rates and final geometric edge surface area for biotite dissolution rates. (c) 2005 Published by Elsevier B.V.