An experimental approach to project risk identification and prioritization

One of the aims of a broad ethnographic study into how the apportionment of risk influences pricing levels of contactors was to ascertain the significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana, and their impact on prices. To do this, in the context of contractors, the difference between expected and realized return on a project is the key dependent variable examined using documentary analyses and semi-structured interviews. Most work in this has focused on identifying and prioritising risks using relative importance indices generated from the analysis of questionnaire survey responses. However, this approach may be argued to constitute perceptions rather than direct measures of the project risk. Here, instead, project risk is investigated by examining two measures of the same quantity; one ‘before’ and one ‘after’ construction of a project has taken place. Risks events are identified by ascertaining the independent variables causing deviations between expected and actual rates of return. Risk impact is then measured by ascertaining additions or reductions to expected costs due to the occurrence of risk events. So far, data from eight substantially complete building projects indicates that consultants’ inefficiency, payment delays, subcontractor-related problems and changes in macroeconomic factors are significant risks affecting contractors in Ghana.

Livelihood adaptation to risk: Constraints and opportunities for pastoral development in Ethiopia's afar region

Development policies in the pastoral areas of Africa assume that pastoralists are poor. Using the Afar pastoralists of Ethiopia as the focus of research this article challenges this depiction of pastoralism by exploring pastoral livelihood goals and traditional strategies for managing risk. Investment in social institutions to minimise the risk of outright destitution, sometimes at the cost of increased poverty, and significant manipulation of local markets enable the Afar to exploit a highly uncertain and marginal environment. Improved development assistance and enhanced targeting of the truly vulnerable within pastoral societies demands an acceptance that pastoral poverty is neither uniform nor universal.

Identifying and quantifying nonconservative energy production/destruction terms in hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation models

This paper seeks to illustrate the point that physical inconsistencies between thermodynamics and dynamics usually introduce nonconservative production/destruction terms in the local total energy balance equation in numerical ocean general circulation models (OGCMs). Such terms potentially give rise to undesirable forces and/or diabatic terms in the momentum and thermodynamic equations, respectively, which could explain some of the observed errors in simulated ocean currents and water masses. In this paper, a theoretical framework is developed to provide a practical method to determine such nonconservative terms, which is illustrated in the context of a relatively simple form of the hydrostatic Boussinesq primitive equation used in early versions of OGCMs, for which at least four main potential sources of energy nonconservation are identified; they arise from: (1) the “hanging” kinetic energy dissipation term; (2) assuming potential or conservative temperature to be a conservative quantity; (3) the interaction of the Boussinesq approximation with the parameterizations of turbulent mixing of temperature and salinity; (4) some adiabatic compressibility effects due to the Boussinesq approximation. In practice, OGCMs also possess spurious numerical energy sources and sinks, but they are not explicitly addressed here. Apart from (1), the identified nonconservative energy sources/sinks are not sign definite, allowing for possible widespread cancellation when integrated globally. Locally, however, these terms may be of the same order of magnitude as actual energy conversion terms thought to occur in the oceans. Although the actual impact of these nonconservative energy terms on the overall accuracy and physical realism of the oceans is difficult to ascertain, an important issue is whether they could impact on transient simulations, and on the transition toward different circulation regimes associated with a significant reorganization of the different energy reservoirs. Some possible solutions for improvement are examined. It is thus found that the term (2) can be substantially reduced by at least one order of magnitude by using conservative temperature instead of potential temperature. Using the anelastic approximation, however, which was initially thought as a possible way to greatly improve the accuracy of the energy budget, would only marginally reduce the term (4) with no impact on the terms (1), (2) and (3).

Calibrating flood inundation models: identifying and addressing uncertainty in satellite observed flood extents

Improvements in the resolution of satellite imagery have enabled extraction of water surface elevations at the margins of the flood. Comparison between modelled and observed water surface elevations provides a new means for calibrating and validating flood inundation models, however the uncertainty in this observed data has yet to be addressed. Here a flood inundation model is calibrated using a probabilistic treatment of the observed data. A LiDAR guided snake algorithm is used to determine an outline of a flood event in 2006 on the River Dee, North Wales, UK, using a 12.5m ERS-1 image. Points at approximately 100m intervals along this outline are selected, and the water surface elevation recorded as the LiDAR DEM elevation at each point. With a planar water surface from the gauged upstream to downstream water elevations as an approximation, the water surface elevations at points along this flooded extent are compared to their ‘expected’ value. The pattern of errors between the two show a roughly normal distribution, however when plotted against coordinates there is obvious spatial autocorrelation. The source of this spatial dependency is investigated by comparing errors to the slope gradient and aspect of the LiDAR DEM. A LISFLOOD-FP model of the flood event is set-up to investigate the effect of observed data uncertainty on the calibration of flood inundation models. Multiple simulations are run using different combinations of friction parameters, from which the optimum parameter set will be selected. For each simulation a T-test is used to quantify the fit between modelled and observed water surface elevations. The points chosen for use in this T-test are selected based on their error. The criteria for selection enables evaluation of the sensitivity of the choice of optimum parameter set to uncertainty in the observed data. This work explores the observed data in detail and highlights possible causes of error. The identification of significant error (RMSE = 0.8m) between approximate expected and actual observed elevations from the remotely sensed data emphasises the limitations of using this data in a deterministic manner within the calibration process. These limitations are addressed by developing a new probabilistic approach to using the observed data.

Clinical and subclinical mastitis in smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania: Risk, intervention and knowledge transfer

In a cross-sectional study of 400 randomly selected smallholder dairy farms in the Tanga and Iringa regions of Tanzania, 14.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.6-17.3) of cows had developed clinical mastitis during the previous year. The point prevalence of subclinical mastitis, defined as a quarter positive by the California Mastitis Test (CMT) or by bacteriological culture, was 46.2% (95% Cl = 43.6-48.8) and 24.3% (95% Cl = 22.2-26.6), respectively. In a longitudinal disease study in Iringa, the incidence of clinical mastitis was 31.7 cases per 100 cow-years. A randomised intervention trial indicated that intramammary antibiotics significantly reduced the proportion of bacteriologically positive quarters in the short-term (14 days post-infusion) but teat dipping had no detectable effect on bacteriological infection and CMT positive quarters. Other risk and protective factors were identified from both the cross-sectional and longitudinal included animals with Boran breeding (odds ratio (OR) = 3,40, 95% CI = 1.00-11.57, P < 0.05 for clinical mastitis, and OR = 3.51, 95% CI = 1.299.55, P < 0.01 for a CMT positive quarter), while the practice of residual calf suckling was protective for a bacteriologically positive quarter (OR = 0.63, 95% Cl = 0.48-0.81, P <= 0.001) and for a CMT positive quarter (OR = 0.69, 95% Cl = 0.63-0.75, P < 0.001). A mastitis training course for farmers and extension officers was held, and the knowledge gained and use of different methods of dissemination were assessed over time. In a subsequent randomised controlled trial, there were strong associations between knowledge gained and both the individual question asked and the combination of dissemination methods (village meeting, video and handout) used. This study demonstrated that both clinical and subclinical mastitis is common in smallholder dairying in Tanzania, and that some of the risk and protective factors for mastitis can be addressed by practical management of dairy cows following effective knowledge transfer. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical and subclinical mastitis in smallholder dairy farms in Tanzania: Risk, intervention and knowledge transfer

In a cross-sectional study of 400 randomly selected smallholder dairy farms in the Tanga and Iringa regions of Tanzania, 14.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 11.6-17.3) of cows had developed clinical mastitis during the previous year. The point prevalence of subclinical mastitis, defined as a quarter positive by the California Mastitis Test (CMT) or by bacteriological culture, was 46.2% (95% Cl = 43.6-48.8) and 24.3% (95% Cl = 22.2-26.6), respectively. In a longitudinal disease study in Iringa, the incidence of clinical mastitis was 31.7 cases per 100 cow-years. A randomised intervention trial indicated that intramammary antibiotics significantly reduced the proportion of bacteriologically positive quarters in the short-term (14 days post-infusion) but teat dipping had no detectable effect on bacteriological infection and CMT positive quarters. Other risk and protective factors were identified from both the cross-sectional and longitudinal included animals with Boran breeding (odds ratio (OR) = 3,40, 95% CI = 1.00-11.57, P < 0.05 for clinical mastitis, and OR = 3.51, 95% CI = 1.299.55, P < 0.01 for a CMT positive quarter), while the practice of residual calf suckling was protective for a bacteriologically positive quarter (OR = 0.63, 95% Cl = 0.48-0.81, P <= 0.001) and for a CMT positive quarter (OR = 0.69, 95% Cl = 0.63-0.75, P < 0.001). A mastitis training course for farmers and extension officers was held, and the knowledge gained and use of different methods of dissemination were assessed over time. In a subsequent randomised controlled trial, there were strong associations between knowledge gained and both the individual question asked and the combination of dissemination methods (village meeting, video and handout) used. This study demonstrated that both clinical and subclinical mastitis is common in smallholder dairying in Tanzania, and that some of the risk and protective factors for mastitis can be addressed by practical management of dairy cows following effective knowledge transfer. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modelling risk perception and trust in food safety information within the theory of planned behaviour

This study suggests a statistical strategy for explaining how food purchasing intentions are influenced by different levels of risk perception and trust in food safety information. The modelling process is based on Ajzen's Theory of Planned Behaviour and includes trust and risk perception as additional explanatory factors. Interaction and endogeneity across these determinants is explored through a system of simultaneous equations, while the SPARTA equation is estimated through an ordered probit model. Furthermore, parameters are allowed to vary as a function of socio-demographic variables. The application explores chicken purchasing intentions both in a standard situation and conditional to an hypothetical salmonella scare. Data were collected through a nationally representative UK wide survey of 533 UK respondents in face-to-face, in-home interviews. Empirical findings show that interactions exist among the determinants of planned behaviour and socio-demographic variables improve the model's performance. Attitudes emerge as the key determinant of intention to purchase chicken, while trust in food safety information provided by media reduces the likelihood to purchase. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Noise, predation risk compensation and vigilance in the chaffinch Fringilla coelebs

Background noise should in theory hinder detection of auditory cues associated with approaching danger. We tested whether foraging chaffinches Fringilla coelebs responded to background noise by increasing vigilance, and examined whether this was explained by predation risk compensation or by a novel stimulus hypothesis. The former predicts that only inter-scan interval should be modified in the presence of background noise, not vigilance levels generally. This is because noise hampers auditory cue detection and increases perceived predation risk primarily when in the head-down position, and also because previous tests have shown that only interscan interval is correlated with predator detection ability in this system. Chaffinches only modified interscan interval supporting this hypothesis. At the same time they made significantly fewer pecks when feeding during the background noise treatment and so the increased vigilance led to a reduction in intake rate, suggesting that compensating for the increased predation risk could indirectly lead to a fitness cost. Finally, the novel stimulus hypothesis predicts that chaffinches should habituate to the noise, which did not occur within a trial or over 5 subsequent trials. We conclude that auditory cues may be an important component of the trade-off between vigilance and feeding, and discuss possible implications for anti-predation theory and ecological processes

Identifying and understanding factors influencing the uptake of new technologies on dairy farms in SW England using the theory of reasoned action

Whilst much is known of new technology adopters, little research has addressed the role of their attitudes in adoption decisions; particularly, for technologies with evident economic potential that have not been taken up by farmers. This paper presents recent research that has used a new approach which examines the role that adopters' attitudes play in identifying the drivers of and barriers to adoption. The study was concerned with technologies for livestock farming systems in SW England, specifically oestrus detection, nitrogen supply management, and, inclusion of white clover. The adoption behaviour is analysed using the social-psychology theory of reasoned action to identify factors that affect the adoption of technologies, which are confirmed using principal components analysis. The results presented here relate to the specific adoption behaviour regarding the Milk Development Council's recommended observation times for heat detection. The factors that affect the adoption of this technology are: cost effectiveness, improved detection and conception rates as the main drivers, whilst the threat to demean the personal knowledge and skills of a farmer in 'knowing' their cows is a barrier. This research shows clearly that promotion of a technology and transfer of knowledge for a farming system need to take account of the beliefs and attitudes of potential adopters. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Determinants of intention to purchase chicken in Italy: the role of consumer risk perception and trust in different information sources

The article investigates how purchasing intentions among a sample of Italian consumers are influenced by different levels of risk perception and their trust in food-safety information provided by different sources such as the food industry, government agencies, or consumers' associations. The assessment of the determinants of intention to purchase was carried out by estimating a causal model for the chicken case in which attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived risk play a major role in determining buyer's behavior. In particular, the role of trust in influencing risk perception is highlighted either as a general construct or as specific constructs targeting food chain, policy actors, and the media. [EconLit citations: Q130, Q190, D120]. (C) 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Gene flow, risk assessment and the environmental release of transgenic plants

The release of genetically modified plants is governed by regulations that aim to provide an assessment of potential impact on the environment. One of the most important components of this risk assessment is an evaluation of the probability of gene flow. In this review, we provide an overview of the current literature on gene flow from transgenic plants, providing a framework of issues for those considering the release of a transgenic plant into the environment. For some plants gene flow from transgenic crops is well documented, and this information is discussed in detail in this review. Mechanisms of gene flow vary from plant species to plant species and range from the possibility of asexual propagation, short- or long-distance pollen dispersal mediated by insects or wind and seed dispersal. Volunteer populations of transgenic plants may occur where seed is inadvertently spread during harvest or commercial distribution. If there are wild populations related to the transgenic crop then hybridization and eventually introgression in the wild may occur, as it has for herbicide resistant transgenic oilseed rape (Brassica napus). Tools to measure the amount of gene flow, experimental data measuring the distance of pollen dispersal, and experiments measuring hybridization and seed survivability are discussed in this review. The various methods that have been proposed to prevent gene flow from genetically modified plants are also described. The current "transgenic traits'! in the major crops confer resistance to herbicides and certain insects. Such traits could confer a selective advantage (an increase in fitness) in wild plant populations in some circumstances, were gene flow to occur. However, there is ample evidence that gene flow from crops to related wild species occurred before the development of transgenic crops and this should be taken into account in the risk assessment process.