Are property prices non-linear? An investigation of the behaviour of US REITs and UK property company shares

Linear models of market performance may be misspecified if the market is subdivided into distinct regimes exhibiting different behaviour. Price movements in the US Real Estate Investment Trusts and UK Property Companies Markets are explored using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model with regimes defined by the real rate of interest. In both US and UK markets, distinctive behaviour emerges, with the TAR model offering better predictive power than a more conventional linear autoregressive model. The research points to the possibility of developing trading rules to exploit the systematically different behaviour across regimes.

A tractable means of correcting sector level TFP calculations in the face of biased technological change.

The measurement of the impact of technical change has received significant attention within the economics literature. One popular method of quantifying the impact of technical change is the use of growth accounting index numbers. However, in a recent article Nelson and Pack (1999) criticise the use of such index numbers in situations where technical change is likely to be biased in favour of one or other inputs. In particular they criticise the common approach of applying observed cost shares, as proxies for partial output elasticities, to weight the change in quantities which they claim is only valid under Hicks neutrality. Recent advances in the measurement of product and factor biases of technical change developed by Balcombe et al (2000) provide a relatively straight-forward means of correcting product and factor shares in the face of biased technical progress. This paper demonstrates the correction of both revenue and cost shares used in the construction of a TFP index for UK agriculture over the period 1953 to 2000 using both revenue and cost function share equations appended with stochastic latent variables to capture the bias effect. Technical progress is shown to be biased between both individual input and output groups. Output and input quantity aggregates are then constructed using both observed and corrected share weights and the resulting TFPs are compared. There does appear to be some significant bias in TFP if the effect of biased technical progress is not taken into account when constructing the weights

Winter wheat in England and Wales, 1923 - 1995: What do indices of genetic diversity reveal?

Genealogical data have been used very widely to construct indices with which to examine the contribution of plant breeding programmes to the maintenance and enhancement of genetic resources. In this paper we use such indices to examine changes in the genetic diversity of the winter wheat crop in England and Wales between 1923 and 1995. We find that, except for one period characterized by the dominance of imported varieties, the genetic diversity of the winter wheat crop has been remarkably stable. This agrees with many studies of plant breeding programmes elsewhere. However, underlying the stability of the winter wheat crop is accelerating varietal turnover without any significant diversification of the genetic resources used. Moreover, the changes we observe are more directly attributable to changes in the varietal shares of the area under winter wheat than to the genealogical relationship between the varieties sown. We argue, therefore, that while genealogical indices reflect how well plant breeders have retained and exploited the resources with which they started, these indices suffer from a critical limitation. They do not reflect the proportion of the available range of genetic resources which has been effectively utilized in the breeding programme: complex crosses of a given set of varieties can yield high indices, and yet disguise the loss (or non-utilization) of a large proportion of the available genetic diversity.

Adverse gastrointestinal effects of arginine and related amino acids

Oral supplements of arginine and citrulline increase local nitric oxide (NO production in the small intestine and this may be harmful under certain circumstances. Gastrointestinal toxicity was therefore reviewed with respect to the intestinal physiology of arginine, citrulline, ornithine, and cystine (which shares the same transporter) and the many clinical trials of supplements of the dibasic amino acids or N-acetylcysteine (NAC. The human intestinal dibasic amino acid transport system has high affinity and low capacity. L-Arginine (but not lysine, ornithine, or D-arginine) induces water and electrolyte secretion that is mediated by NO, which acts as an absorbagogue at low levels and as a secretagogue at high levels. The action of many laxatives is NO mediated and there are reports of diarrhea following oral administration of arginine or ornithine ihine. The clinical data cover a wide span of arginine intakes f rom 3 g/d to > 100 g/d, but the standard of reporting adverse effects (e.g. nausea, vomiting, and diarrhea) was variable. Single doses of 3-6 g rarely provoked side effects and healthy athletes appeared to be more susceptible than diabetic patients to gastrointestinal symptoms at individual doses >9 g. This may relate to an effect of disease on gastrointestinal motility and pharmacokinetics. Most side effects of arginine and NAC occurred at single doses of >9 g in adults >140 mg/kg) often when part of a daily regime of similar to>30 g/d (>174 mmol/d). In the case of arginine, this compares with the laxative threshold of the nonabsorbed disaccharide alcohol, lactitol (74 g or 194 mmol). Adverse effects seemed dependent on the dosage regime and disappeared if divided doses were ingested (unlike lactitol). Large single doses of poorly absorbed amino acids seem to provoke diarrhea. More research is needed to refine dosage strategies that reduce this phenomenon. It is suggested that dipeptide forms of arginine may meet this criterion.

Exploring block construction and mental imagery: evidence of atypical orientation discrimination in Williams syndrome

The visuospatial perceptual abilities of individuals with Williams syndrome (WS) were investigated in two experiments. Experiment I measured the ability of participants to discriminate between oblique and between nonoblique orientations. Individuals with WS showed a smaller effect of obliqueness in response time, when compared to controls matched for nonverbal mental age. Experiment 2 investigated the possibility that this deviant pattern of orientation discrimination accounts for the poor ability to perform mental rotation in WS (Farran, Jarrold, & Gathercole, 2001). A size transformation task was employed, which shares the image transformation requirements of mental rotation, but not the orientation discrimination demands. Individuals with WS performed at the same level as controls. The results suggest a deviance at the perceptual level in WS, in processing orientation, which fractionates from the ability to mentally transform images.

Preliminary X-ray diffraction analysis of YqjH from Escherichia coli: a putative cytoplasmic ferri-siderophore reductase

YqjH is a cytoplasmic FAD-containing protein from Escherichia coli; based on homology to ViuB of Vibrio cholerae, it potentially acts as a ferri-siderophore reductase. This work describes its overexpression, purification, crystallization and structure solution at 3.0 A resolution. YqjH shares high sequence similarity with a number of known siderophore-interacting proteins and its structure was solved by molecular replacement using the siderophore-interacting protein from Shewanella putrefaciens as the search model. The YqjH structure resembles those of other members of the NAD(P)H:flavin oxidoreductase superfamily.

Towards the "cult of the equity"? Insurance companies and the interwar capital market

This article examines the ways in which insurance companies modified their investment policies during the interwar years, arguing that this period marked the start of the transition from ‘traditional’ to ‘modern’ investment practice. Economic and financial conditions raised considerable doubts regarding the suitability of traditional insurance investments, while competitive conditions forced insurance offices to seek higher-yielding assets. These pressures led to a considerable increase in the proportion of new investment devoted to corporate securities, including ordinary shares. Meanwhile new insurance investment philosophies began to be advocated, which accorded both legitimacy and importance to the role of ordinary shares in insurance portfolios.

Firm size and competition: a comparison of the housebuilding industries in Australia, the UK and the USA

Housebuilding is frequently viewed as an industry full of small firms. However, large firms exist in many countries. Here, a comparative analysis is made of the housebuilding industries in Australia, Britain and the USA. Housebuilding output is found to be much higher in Australia and the USA than in Britain when measured on a per capita basis. At the same time, the degree of market concentration in Australia and the USA is relatively low but in Britain it is far greater, with a few firms having quite substantial market shares. Investigation of the size distribution of the top 100 or so firms ranked by output also shows that the decline in firm size from the largest downwards is more rapid in Britain than elsewhere. The exceptionalism of the British case is put down to two principal reasons. First, the close proximity of Britain’s regions enables housebuilders to diversify successfully across different markets. The gains from such diversification are best achieved by large firms, because they can gain scale benefits in any particular market segment. Second, land shortages induced by a restrictive planning system encourage firms to takeover each other as a quick and beneficial means of acquiring land. The institutional rules of planning also make it difficult for new entrants to come in at the bottom end of the size hierarchy. In this way, concentration grows and a handful of large producers emerge. These conditions do not hold in the other two countries, so their industries are less concentrated. Given the degree of rivalry between firms over land purchases and takeovers, it is difficult to envisage them behaving in a long-term collusive manner, so that competition in British housebuilding is probably not unduly compromised by the exceptional degree of firm concentration. Reforms to lower the restrictions, improve the slow responsiveness and reduce the uncertainties associated with British planning systems’ role in housing supply are likely to greatly improve the ability of new firms to enter housebuilding and all firms’ abilities to increase output in response to rising housing demand. Such reforms would also probably lower overall housebuilding firm concentration over time.

Commercial real estate return distributions: a review of literature and empirical evidence

This paper review the literature on the distribution of commercial real estate returns. There is growing evidence that the assumption of normality in returns is not safe. Distributions are found to be peaked, fat-tailed and, tentatively, skewed. There is some evidence of compound distributions and non-linearity. Public traded real estate assets (such as property company or REIT shares) behave in a fashion more similar to other common stocks. However, as in equity markets, it would be unwise to assume normality uncritically. Empirical evidence for UK real estate markets is obtained by applying distribution fitting routines to IPD Monthly Index data for the aggregate index and selected sub-sectors. It is clear that normality is rejected in most cases. It is often argued that observed differences in real estate returns are a measurement issue resulting from appraiser behaviour. However, unsmoothing the series does not assist in modelling returns. A large proportion of returns are close to zero. This would be characteristic of a thinly-traded market where new information arrives infrequently. Analysis of quarterly data suggests that, over longer trading periods, return distributions may conform more closely to those found in other asset markets. These results have implications for the formulation and implementation of a multi-asset portfolio allocation strategy.

Role of NleH, a Type III Secreted Effector from Attaching and Effacing Pathogens, in Colonization of the Bovine, Ovine, and Murine Gut

The human pathogen enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) O157:H7 colonizes human and animal gut via formation of attaching and effacing lesions. EHEC strains use a type III secretion system to translocate a battery of effector proteins into the mammalian host cell, which subvert diverse signal transduction pathways implicated in actin dynamics, phagocytosis, and innate immunity. The genomes of sequenced EHEC O157: H7 strains contain two copies of the effector protein gene nleH, which share 49% sequence similarity with the gene for the Shigella effector OspG, recently implicated in inhibition of migration of the transcriptional regulator NF-kappa B to the nucleus. In this study we investigated the role of NleH during EHEC O157: H7 infection of calves and lambs. We found that while EHEC Delta nleH colonized the bovine gut more efficiently than the wild-type strain, in lambs the wild-type strain exhibited a competitive advantage over the mutant during mixed infection. Using the mouse pathogen Citrobacter rodentium, which shares many virulence factors with EHEC O157: H7, including NleH, we observed that the wild-type strain exhibited a competitive advantage over the mutant during mixed infection. We found no measurable differences in T-cell infiltration or hyperplasia in colons of mice inoculated with the wild-type or the nleH mutant strain. Using NF-kappa B reporter mice carrying a transgene containing a luciferase reporter driven by three NF-kappa B response elements, we found that NleH causes an increase in NF-kappa B activity in the colonic mucosa. Consistent with this, we found that the nleH mutant triggered a significantly lower tumor necrosis factor alpha response than the wild-type strain.

The information content of REIT credit rating actions and transparency

We examine the short-run and long-run price reaction of equity REIT shares following credit rating actions, testing the transparency of the REIT structure. Generally, the economic effect on the stock price is subdued for both upgrades and downgrades compared to prior literature examining the broader U.S. equity market. An examination of trading volume revealed a significant increase in trading in reaction to downgrade credit rating changes, with a more subdued response to upgrades. The findings support the notion that REITs are more publicly forthcoming about the expectation of positive news in comparison to negative news.

Design meetings and the coordination of expertise

The coordination of work and expertise in construction projects is often treated in terms of models or formal rules. However, much is to be gained, if we are to understand it, by examining actual coordination practices. The objective in this article is to address practices of coordination of expertise in the context of design team meetings. The focus is specifically on conversational practices between the structural engineer and the landscape architect part of the design team in a healthcare infrastructure project. The central argument is that the coordination of expertise relied on and was organised by mundane and everyday methods, and not by formal and abstract ones. This argument is drawn from ethnomethodology, a form of sociological analysis that focuses on the situated methods by which activities are produced, but shares concerns found in the literature on actual project management practices. The ethnomethodological stance, however, offers a different perspective on the significance of the empirical reality of projects and a possibility to incorporate within this literature a concern with the ordinary methodical organisation of project activities.

The integration of lipid-sensing and anti-inflammatory effects: how the PPARs play a role in metabolic balance

The peroxisomal proliferating-activated receptors (PPARs) are lipid-sensing transcription factors that have a role in embryonic development, but are primarily known for modulating energy metabolism, lipid storage, and transport, as well as inflammation and wound healing. Currently, there is no consensus as to the overall combined function of PPARs and why they evolved. We hypothesize that the PPARs had to evolve to integrate lipid storage and burning with the ability to reduce oxidative stress, as energy storage is essential for survival and resistance to injury/infection, but the latter increases oxidative stress and may reduce median survival (functional longevity). In a sense, PPARs may be an evolutionary solution to something we call the 'hypoxia-lipid' conundrum, where the ability to store and burn fat is essential for survival, but is a 'double-edged sword', as fats are potentially highly toxic. Ways in which PPARs may reduce oxidative stress involve modulation of mitochondrial uncoupling protein (UCP) expression (thus reducing reactive oxygen species, ROS), optimising forkhead box class O factor (FOXO) activity (by improving whole body insulin sensitivity) and suppressing NFkB (at the transcriptional level). In light of this, we therefore postulate that inflammation-induced PPAR downregulation engenders many of the signs and symptoms of the metabolic syndrome, which shares many features with the acute phase response (APR) and is the opposite of the phenotype associated with calorie restriction and high FOXO activity. In genetically susceptible individuals (displaying the naturally mildly insulin resistant 'thrifty genotype'), suboptimal PPAR activity may follow an exaggerated but natural adipose tissue-related inflammatory signal induced by excessive calories and reduced physical activity, which normally couples energy storage with the ability to mount an immune response. This is further worsened when pancreatic decompensation occurs, resulting in gluco-oxidative stress and lipotoxicity, increased inflammatory insulin resistance and oxidative stress. Reactivating PPARs may restore a metabolic balance and help to adapt the phenotype to a modern lifestyle.

The Vida of Queen Fredegund in Tote Listoire de France: vernacular translation and genre in thirteenth-century French and Occitan literature

This article examines the role that translation may have played in the development of medieval vernacular literature. It analyses an extract of an early 13th-c. translation into a hybrid French-Occitan vernacular of an 8th-c. historical text, the 'Liber Historiae Francorum'. The translation coincides with the adoption of narrative prose both in Old French and in Occitan literature, which reflects a growing interest in historical writings. The second half of the article compares the anecdote with the narrative structures and content of one of the troubadour 'vidas' and 'razos' - biographical texts in prose that emerged in the same period and regions as this translation. The article concludes by suggesting that the new vernacular genre shares narrative features with the early medieval Latin text that are preserved in its translation.