Mesoscale simulations of organized convection: importance of convective equilibrium

The validity of convective parametrization breaks down at the resolution of mesoscale models, and the success of parametrized versus explicit treatments of convection is likely to depend on the large-scale environment. In this paper we examine the hypothesis that a key feature determining the sensitivity to the environment is whether the forcing of convection is sufficiently homogeneous and slowly varying that the convection can be considered to be in equilibrium. Two case studies of mesoscale convective systems over the UK, one where equilibrium conditions are expected and one where equilibrium is unlikely, are simulated using a mesoscale forecasting model. The time evolution of area-average convective available potential energy and the time evolution and magnitude of the timescale of convective adjustment are consistent with the hypothesis of equilibrium for case 1 and non-equilibrium for case 2. For each case, three experiments are performed with different partitionings between parametrized and explicit convection: fully parametrized convection, fully explicit convection and a simulation with significant amounts of both. In the equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are insensitive to the treatment of convection. However, the detailed structure of the precipitation field changes; the simulation with parametrized convection behaves well and produces a smooth field that follows the forcing region, and the simulation with explicit convection has a small number of localized intense regions of precipitation that track with the mid-levelflow. For the non-equilibrium case, bulk properties of the convection such as area-integrated rain rates are sensitive to the treatment of convection. The simulation with explicit convection behaves similarly to the equilibrium case with a few localized precipitation regions. In contrast, the cumulus parametrization fails dramatically and develops intense propagating bows of precipitation that were not observed. The simulations with both parametrized and explicit convection follow the pattern seen in the other experiments, with a transition over the duration of the run from parametrized to explicit precipitation. The impact of convection on the large-scaleflow, as measured by upper-level wind and potential-vorticity perturbations, is very sensitive to the partitioning of convection for both cases. © Royal Meteorological Society, 2006. Contributions by P. A. Clark and M. E. B. Gray are Crown Copyright.

Impact of Laptev Sea flaw polynyas on the atmospheric boundary layer and ice production using idealized mesoscale simulations

The interaction between polynyas and the atmospheric boundary layer is examined in the Laptev Sea using the regional, non-hydrostatic Consortium for Small-scale Modelling (COSMO) atmosphere model. A thermodynamic sea-ice model is used to consider the response of sea-ice surface temperature to idealized atmospheric forcing. The idealized regimes represent atmospheric conditions that are typical for the Laptev Sea region. Cold wintertime conditions are investigated with sea-ice–ocean temperature differences of up to 40 K. The Laptev Sea flaw polynyas strongly modify the atmospheric boundary layer. Convectively mixed layers reach heights of up to 1200 m above the polynyas with temperature anomalies of more than 5 K. Horizontal transport of heat expands to areas more than 500 km downstream of the polynyas. Strong wind regimes lead to a more shallow mixed layer with strong near-surface modifications, while weaker wind regimes show a deeper, well-mixed convective boundary layer. Shallow mesoscale circulations occur in the vicinity of ice-free and thin-ice covered polynyas. They are forced by large turbulent and radiative heat fluxes from the surface of up to 789 W m−2, strong low-level thermally induced convergence and cold air flow from the orographic structure of the Taimyr Peninsula in the western Laptev Sea region. Based on the surface energy balance we derive potential sea-ice production rates between 8 and 25 cm d−1. These production rates are mainly determined by whether the polynyas are ice-free or covered by thin ice and by the wind strength.

Analysis of convectively-generated gravity waves in mesoscale model simulations and wind profiler observations

The characteristics of convectively-generated gravity waves during an episode of deep convection near the coast of Wales are examined in both high resolution mesoscale simulations [with the (UK) Met Oce Unified Model] and in observations from a Mesosphere-Stratosphere-Troposphere (MST) wind profiling Doppler radar. Deep convection reached the tropopause and generated vertically propagating, high frequency waves in the lower stratosphere that produced vertical velocity perturbations O(1 m/s). Wavelet analysis is applied in order to determine the characteristic periods and wavelengths of the waves. In both the simulations and observations, the wavelet spectra contain several distinct preferred scales indicated by multiple spectral peaks. The peaks are most pronounced in the horizontal spectra at several wavelengths less than 50 km. Although these peaks are most clear and of largest amplitude in the highest resolution simulations (with 1 km horizontal grid length), they are also evident in coarser simulations (with 4 km horizontal grid length). Peaks also exist in the vertical and temporal spectra (between approximately 2.5 and 4.5 km, and 10 to 30 minutes, respectively) with good agreement between simulation and observation. Two-dimensional (wavenumber-frequency) spectra demonstrate that each of the selected horizontal scales contains peaks at each of preferred temporal scales revealed by the one- dimensional spectra alone.

Estimation of wind storm impacts over Western Germany under future climate conditions using a statistical-dynamical downscaling approach

A statistical–dynamical regionalization approach is developed to assess possible changes in wind storm impacts. The method is applied to North Rhine-Westphalia (Western Germany) using the FOOT3DK mesoscale model for dynamical downscaling and ECHAM5/OM1 global circulation model climate projections. The method first classifies typical weather developments within the reanalysis period using K-means cluster algorithm. Most historical wind storms are associated with four weather developments (primary storm-clusters). Mesoscale simulations are performed for representative elements for all clusters to derive regional wind climatology. Additionally, 28 historical storms affecting Western Germany are simulated. Empirical functions are estimated to relate wind gust fields and insured losses. Transient ECHAM5/OM1 simulations show an enhanced frequency of primary storm-clusters and storms for 2060–2100 compared to 1960–2000. Accordingly, wind gusts increase over Western Germany, reaching locally +5% for 98th wind gust percentiles (A2-scenario). Consequently, storm losses are expected to increase substantially (+8% for A1B-scenario, +19% for A2-scenario). Regional patterns show larger changes over north-eastern parts of North Rhine-Westphalia than for western parts. For storms with return periods above 20 yr, loss expectations for Germany may increase by a factor of 2. These results document the method's functionality to assess future changes in loss potentials in regional terms.

Tracing troposphere-to-stratosphere transport above a mid-latitude deep convective system

Within the project SPURT (trace gas measurements in the tropopause region) a variety of trace gases have been measured in situ in order to investigate the role of dynamical and chemical processes in the extra-tropical tropopause region. In this paper we report on a flight on 10 November 2001 leading from Hohn, Germany (52�N) to Faro, Portugal (37�N) through a strongly developed deep stratospheric intrusion. This streamer was associated with a large convective system over the western Mediterranean with potentially significant troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Along major parts of the flight we measured unexpectedly high NOy mixing ratios. Also H2O mixing ratios were significantly higher than stratospheric background levels confirming the extraordinary chemical signature of the probed air masses in the interior of the streamer. Backward trajectories encompassing the streamer enable to analyze the origin and physical characteristics of the air masses and to trace troposphere-to-stratosphere transport. Near the western flank of the streamer features caused by long range transport, such as tropospheric filaments characterized by sudden drops in the O3 and NOy mixing ratios and enhanced CO and H2O can be reconstructed in great detail using the reverse domain filling technique. These filaments indicate a high potential for subsequent mixing with the stratospheric air. At the south-western edge of the streamer a strong gradient in the NOy and the O3 mixing ratios coincides very well with a sharp gradient in potential vorticity in the ECMWF fields. In contrast, in the interior of the streamer the observed highly elevated NOy and H2O mixing ratios up to a potential temperature level of 365K and potential vorticity values of maximum 10 PVU cannot be explained in terms of resolved troposphere-to-stratosphere transport along the backward trajectories. Also mesoscale simulations with a High Resolution Model reveal no direct evidence for convective H2O injection up to this level. Elevated H2O mixing ratios in the ECMWF and HRM are seen only up to about tropopause height at 340 hPa and 270 hPa, respectively, well below flight altitude of about 200 hPa. However, forward tracing of the convective influence as identified by satellite brightness temperature measurements and counts of lightning strokes shows that during this part of the flight the aircraft was closely following the border of an air mass which was heavily impacted by convective activity over Spain and Algeria. This is evidence that deep convection at mid-latitudes may have a large impact on the tracer distribution of the lowermost stratosphere reaching well above the thunderstorms anvils as claimed by recent studies using cloud-resolving models.

Sting jets in simulations of a real cyclone by two mesoscale models

The existence of sting jets as a potential source of damaging surface winds during the passage of extratropical cyclones has recently been recognized However, there are still very few published studies on the subject Furthermore, although ills known that other models are capable of reproducing sting jets, in the published literature only one numerical model [the Met Office Unified Model (MetUM)] has been used to numerically analyze these phenomena This article alms to improve our understanding of the processes that contribute to the development of sting jets and show that model differences affect the evolution of modeled sting jets A sting jet event during the passage of a cyclone over the United Kingdom on 26 February 2002 has been simulated using two mesoscale models namely the MetUM and the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO) model to compare their performance Given the known critical importance of vertical resolution in the simulation of sting jets the vertical resolution of both models has been enhanced with respect to their operational versions Both simulations have been verified against surface measurements of maximum gusts, satellite imagery and Met Office operational synoptic analyses, as well as operational analyses from the ECMWF It is shown that both models are capable of reproducing sting jets with similar, though not identical. features Through the comparison of the results from these two models, the relevance of physical mechanisms, such as evaporative cooling and the release of conditional symmetric instability, in the generation and evolution of sting jets is also discussed

A comparison of stratosphere-troposphere transport in convection-permitting and convection-parameterizing simulations of three mesoscale convective systems

The transport of stratospheric air into the troposphere within deep convection was investigated using the Met Office Unified Model version 6.1. Three cases were simulated in which convective systems formed over the UK in the summer of 2005. For each of these three cases, simulations were performed on a grid having 4 km horizontal grid spacing in which the convection was parameterized and on a grid having 1 km horizontal grid spacing, which permitted explicit representation of the largest energy-containing scales of deep convection. Cross-tropopause transport was diagnosed using passive tracers that were initialized above the dynamically defined tropopause (2 potential vorticity unit surface) with a mixing ratio of 1. Although the synoptic-scale environment and triggering mechanisms varied between the cases, the total simulated transport was similar in all three cases. The total stratosphere-to-troposphere transport over the lifetime of the convective systems ranged from 25 to 100 kg/m2 across the simulated convective systems and resolutions, which corresponds to ∼5–20% of the total mass located within a stratospheric column extending 2 km above the tropopause. In all simulations, the transport into the lower troposphere (defined as below 3.5 km elevation) accounted for ∼1% of the total transport across the tropopause. In the 4 km runs most of the transport was due to parameterized convection, whereas in the 1 km runs the transport was due to explicitly resolved convection. The largest difference between the simulations with different resolutions occurred in the one case of midlevel convection considered, in which the total transport in the 1 km grid spacing simulation with explicit convection was 4 times that in the 4 km grid spacing simulation with parameterized convection. Although the total cross-tropopause transport was similar, stratospheric tracer was deposited more deeply to near-surface elevations in the convection-parameterizing simulations than in convection-permitting simulations.

Quantifying mesoscale variability in ocean transient tracer fields

A powerful way to test the realism of ocean general circulation models is to systematically compare observations of passive tracer concentration with model predictions. The general circulation models used in this way cannot resolve a full range of vigorous mesoscale activity (on length scales between 10–100 km). In the real ocean, however, this activity causes important variability in tracer fields. Thus, in order to rationally compare tracer observations with model predictions these unresolved fluctuations (the model variability error) must be estimated. We have analyzed this variability using an eddy‐resolving reduced‐gravity model in a simple midlatitude double‐gyre configuration. We find that the wave number spectrum of tracer variance is only weakly sensitive to the distribution of (large scale slowly varying) tracer sources and sinks. This suggests that a universal passive tracer spectrum may exist in the ocean. We estimate the spectral shape using high‐resolution measurements of potential temperature on an isopycnal in the upper northeast Atlantic Ocean, finding a slope near k −1.7 between 10 and 500 km. The typical magnitude of the variance is estimated by comparing tracer simulations using different resolutions. For CFC‐ and tritium‐type transient tracers the peak magnitude of the model variability saturation error may reach 0.20 for scales shorter than 100 km. This is of the same order as the time mean saturation itself and well over an order of magnitude greater than the instrumental uncertainty.

Case-to-case variability of predictability of deep convection in a mesoscale model

Successful quantitative precipitation forecasts under convectively unstable conditions depend on the ability of the model to capture the location, timing and intensity of convection. Ensemble forecasts of two mesoscale convective outbreaks over the UK are examined with a view to understanding the nature and extent of their predictability. In addition to a control forecast, twelve ensemble members are run for each case with the same boundary conditions but with perturbations added to the boundary layer. The intention is to introduce perturbations of appropriate magnitude and scale so that the large-scale behaviour of the simulations is not changed. In one case, convection is in statistical equilibrium with the large-scale flow. This places a constraint on the total precipitation, but the location and intensity of individual storms varied. In contrast, the other case was characterised by a large-scale capping inversion. As a result, the location of individual storms was fixed, but their intensities and the total precipitation varied strongly. The ensemble shows case-to-case variability in the nature of predictability of convection in a mesoscale model, and provides additional useful information for quantitative precipitation forecasting.

High-resolution global climate simulations with the ECMWF model in Project Athena: experimental design, model climate, and seasonal forecast skill

The sensitivity to the horizontal resolution of the climate, anthropogenic climate change, and seasonal predictive skill of the ECMWF model has been studied as part of Project Athena—an international collaboration formed to test the hypothesis that substantial progress in simulating and predicting climate can be achieved if mesoscale and subsynoptic atmospheric phenomena are more realistically represented in climate models. In this study the experiments carried out with the ECMWF model (atmosphere only) are described in detail. Here, the focus is on the tropics and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics during boreal winter. The resolutions considered in Project Athena for the ECMWF model are T159 (126 km), T511 (39 km), T1279 (16 km), and T2047 (10 km). It was found that increasing horizontal resolution improves the tropical precipitation, the tropical atmospheric circulation, the frequency of occurrence of Euro-Atlantic blocking, and the representation of extratropical cyclones in large parts of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. All of these improvements come from the increase in resolution from T159 to T511 with relatively small changes for further resolution increases to T1279 and T2047, although it should be noted that results from this very highest resolution are from a previously untested model version. Problems in simulating the Madden–Julian oscillation remain unchanged for all resolutions tested. There is some evidence that increasing horizontal resolution to T1279 leads to moderate increases in seasonal forecast skill during boreal winter in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Sensitivity experiments are discussed, which helps to foster a better understanding of some of the resolution dependence found for the ECMWF model in Project Athena

Heat and moisture budgets from airborne measurements and high-resolution model simulations

High-resolution simulations with a mesoscale model are performed to estimate heat and moisture budgets of a well-mixed boundary layer. The model budgets are validated against energy budgets obtained from airborne measurements over heterogeneous terrain in Western Germany. Time rate of change, vertical divergence, and horizontal advection for an atmospheric column of air are estimated. Results show that the time trend of specific humidity exhibits some deficiencies, while the potential temperature trend is matched accurately. Furthermore, the simulated turbulent surface fluxes of sensible and latent heat are comparable to the measured fluxes, leading to similar values of the vertical divergence. The analysis of different horizontal model resolutions exhibits improved surface fluxes with increased resolution, a fact attributed to a reduced aggregation effect. Scale-interaction effects could be identified: while time trends and advection are strongly influenced by mesoscale forcing, the turbulent surface fluxes are mainly controlled by microscale processes.

The simulation of the opposing fluxes of latent heat and CO2 over various land-use types: coupling a gas exchange model to a mesoscale atmospheric model

A mesoscale meteorological model (FOOT3DK) is coupled with a gas exchange model to simulate surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O under field conditions. The gas exchange model consists of a C3 single leaf photosynthesis sub-model and an extended big leaf (sun/shade) sub-model that divides the canopy into sunlit and shaded fractions. Simulated CO2 fluxes of the stand-alone version of the gas exchange model correspond well to eddy-covariance measurements at a test site in a rural area in the west of Germany. The coupled FOOT3DK/gas exchange model is validated for the diurnal cycle at singular grid points, and delivers realistic fluxes with respect to their order of magnitude and to the general daily course. Compared to the Jarvis-based big leaf scheme, simulations of latent heat fluxes with a photosynthesis-based scheme for stomatal conductance are more realistic. As expected, flux averages are strongly influenced by the underlying land cover. While the simulated net ecosystem exchange is highly correlated with leaf area index, this correlation is much weaker for the latent heat flux. Photosynthetic CO2 uptake is associated with transpirational water loss via the stomata, and the resulting opposing surface fluxes of CO2 and H2O are reproduced with the model approach. Over vegetated surfaces it is shown that the coupling of a photosynthesis-based gas exchange model with the land-surface scheme of a mesoscale model results in more realistic simulated latent heat fluxes.

Assessment of the Wind Gust Estimate Method in mesoscale modelling of storm events over West Germany

A physically based gust parameterisation is added to the atmospheric mesoscale model FOOT3DK to estimate wind gusts associated with storms over West Germany. The gust parameterisation follows the Wind Gust Estimate (WGE) method and its functionality is verified in this study. The method assumes that gusts occurring at the surface are induced by turbulent eddies in the planetary boundary layer, deflecting air parcels from higher levels down to the surface under suitable conditions. Model simulations are performed with horizontal resolutions of 20 km and 5 km. Ten historical storm events of different characteristics and intensities are chosen in order to include a wide range of typical storms affecting Central Europe. All simulated storms occurred between 1990 and 1998. The accuracy of the method is assessed objectively by validating the simulated wind gusts against data from 16 synoptic stations by means of “quality parameters”. Concerning these parameters, the temporal and spatial evolution of the simulated gusts is well reproduced. Simulated values for low altitude stations agree particularly well with the measured gusts. For orographically exposed locations, the gust speeds are partly underestimated. The absolute maximum gusts lie in most cases within the bounding interval given by the WGE method. Focussing on individual storms, the performance of the method is better for intense and large storms than for weaker ones. Particularly for weaker storms, the gusts are typically overestimated. The results for the sample of ten storms document that the method is generally applicable with the mesoscale model FOOT3DK for mid-latitude winter storms, even in areas with complex orography.

Idealised simulations of sting-jet cyclones

An idealised modelling study of sting-jet cyclones is presented. Sting jets are descending mesoscale jets that occur in some extratropical cyclones and produce localised regions of strong low-level winds in the frontal fracture region. Moist baroclinic lifecycle (LC1) simulations are performed with modifications to produce cyclones resembling observed sting-jet cyclones. A sting jet exists in the idealised control cyclone with similar characteristics to the sting jet in a simulation of windstorm Gudrun (a confirmed sting-jet case). Unlike in windstorm Gudrun, a low-level layer of strong moist static stability prohibits the descent of the strong winds from above the boundary layer to the surface in the idealised case. Conditional symmetric instability (CSI) exists in the cloud head and dissipates as the sting jet leaves the cloud head and descends. The descending, initially moist, sting-jet trajectories consistently have negative or near-zero saturated moist potential vorticity but moist static stability and inertial stability, consistent with CSI release; the moist static stability becomes negative during the period of most rapid descent, by which time the air is relatively dry implying conditional instability release is unlikely. Sensitivity experiments show that the existence of the sting jet is robust to changes in the initial state, and that the initial tropospheric static stability significantly impacts the descent rate of the sting jet. Inertial and conditional instability are probably being released in the experiment with the weakest initial static stability. This suggests that sting jets can arise through the release of all three instabilities associated with negative saturated moist potential vorticity. While evaporative cooling occurs along the sting-jet trajectories, a sensitivity experiment with evaporation effects turned off shows no significant change to the wind strength or descent rate of the sting jet implying that instability release is the dominant sting-jet driving mechanism.