Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

Is participation prevention? A blurring of discourses in children's preventative initiatives in the UK

This article explores the relationships between two key concepts that have defined recent social policy initiatives for children in the UK: participation and prevention from social exclusion. Drawing on the Children's Fund initiative as an example, the article traces the diverse and sometimes contradictory discourses of childhood and social inclusion/ exclusion in stakeholders' differing rationales for supporting children's participation and prevention. The authors argue that the blurring of the rationales for participation and prevention has implications for the strategies and practices that agencies adopt and raises questions about which groups benefit and whose agendas are served by participation and prevention activities.

Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field and catchment scales

A semi-distributed model, INCA, has been developed to determine the fate and distribution of nutrients in terrestrial and aquatic systems. The model simulates nitrogen and phosphorus processes in soils, groundwaters and river systems and can be applied in a semi-distributed manner at a range of scales. In this study, the model has been applied at field to sub-catchment to whole catchment scale to evaluate the behaviour of biosolid-derived losses of P in agricultural systems. It is shown that process-based models such as INCA, applied at a wide range of scales, reproduce field and catchment behaviour satisfactorily. The INCA model can also be used to generate generic information for risk assessment. By adjusting three key variables: biosolid application rates, the hydrological connectivity of the catchment and the initial P-status of the soils within the model, a matrix of P loss rates can be generated to evaluate the behaviour of the model and, hence, of the catchment system. The results, which indicate the sensitivity of the catchment to flow paths, to application rates and to initial soil conditions, have been incorporated into a Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM).

British Nutrition Foundation annual lecture: chips with everything? Nutritional genomics and the application of diet in disease prevention

The development of high throughput techniques ('chip' technology) for measurement of gene expression and gene polymorphisms (genomics), and techniques for measuring global protein expression (proteomics) and metabolite profile (metabolomics) are revolutionising life science research, including research in human nutrition. In particular, the ability to undertake large-scale genotyping and to identify gene polymorphisms that determine risk of chronic disease (candidate genes) could enable definition of an individual's risk at an early age. However, the search for candidate genes has proven to be more complex, and their identification more elusive, than previously thought. This is largely due to the fact that much of the variability in risk results from interactions between the genome and environmental exposures. Whilst the former is now very well defined via the Human Genome Project, the latter (e.g. diet, toxins, physical activity) are poorly characterised, resulting in inability to account for their confounding effects in most large-scale candidate gene studies. The polygenic nature of most chronic diseases offers further complexity, requiring very large studies to disentangle relatively weak impacts of large numbers of potential 'risk' genes. The efficacy of diet as a preventative strategy could also be considerably increased by better information concerning gene polymorphisms that determine variability in responsiveness to specific diet and nutrient changes. Much of the limited available data are based on retrospective genotyping using stored samples from previously conducted intervention trials. Prospective studies are now needed to provide data that can be used as the basis for provision of individualised dietary advice and development of food products that optimise disease prevention. Application of the new technologies in nutrition research offers considerable potential for development of new knowledge and could greatly advance the role of diet as a preventative disease strategy in the 21st century. Given the potential economic and social benefits offered, funding for research in this area needs greater recognition, and a stronger strategic focus, than is presently the case. Application of genomics in human health offers considerable ethical and societal as well as scientific challenges. Economic determinants of health care provision are more likely to resolve such issues than scientific developments or altruistic concerns for human health.

Personalized nutrition for the prevention of cardiovascular disease: a future perspective

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is responsible for significant morbidity and mortality in the Western and developing world. This multifactorial disease is influenced by many environmental and genetic factors. At present, public health advice involves prescribed population-based recommendations, which have been largely unsuccessful in reducing CVD risk. This is, in part, due to individual variability in response to dietary manipulations, that arises from nutrient-gene interactions (defined by the term 'nutrigenetics'). The shift towards personalized nutritional advice is a very attractive proposition, where, in principle, an individual can be given dietary advice specifically tailored to their genotype. However, the evidence-base for the impact of interactions between nutrients and fixed genetic variants on biomarkers of CVD risk is still very limited. This paper reviews the evidence for interactions between dietary fat and two common polymorphisms in the apolipoprotein E and peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-gamma genes. Although an increased understanding of how these and other genes influence response to nutrients should facilitate the progression of personalized nutrition, the ethical issues surrounding its routine use need careful consideration.

Chestnut and mimosa tannin silages: Effects in sheep differ for apparent digestibility, nitrogen utilisation and losses

This paper reports effects of chestnut and mimosa tannins on N utilisation in sheep. Tannins were added to grass either at ensilage or incorporated into grass silage at feeding. The study used an 8 × 5 incomplete Latin Square design with eight mature wether sheep and five 21-day periods. Tannin additions reduced in vivo apparent digestibilities of dry matter (DM), organic matter (OM) and neutral detergent fibre (aNDFom) compared with the untreated control silage (P<0.001). Reductions ranged from 7.6% for DM to 8.5% for aNDFom. Chestnut compared to mimosa tannin silages produced higher values for DM intake (734 g/day versus 625 g/day) and in vivo digestibility for DM, OM and aNDFom (0.66, 0.68 and 0.69 versus 0.61, 0.63 and 0.62; P<0.001). A substantial shift occurred in the pattern of N excretion in sheep fed the tannin versus control silages. As a proportion of daily N intake, urinary N losses were lower (56.4 g/100 g N versus 65.1 g/100 g N intake) and faecal N losses were higher (40.2 g/100 g N versus 29.8 g/100 g N intake) for sheep fed the tannin silages compared with those fed the control grass silage (P<0.001). Nitrogen intake was higher in sheep fed the chestnut compared to mimosa tannin silages (16.2 g/day versus 13.4 g/day; P<0.001), reflecting the lower DM intake of sheep fed the mimosa silages. However, faecal N loss was lower for chestnut compared to mimosa tannin silage fed sheep (38.2 g/100 g N versus 42.1 g/100 g N intake; P<0.01), resulting in higher N retentions with the chestnut compared to the mimosa silage fed sheep (5.49 g/100 g N versus 1.38 g/100 g N intake). Faecal N losses were also higher when tannins were added during ensiling rather than at feeding (P<0.05). Although there was no overall effect of tannins on N retention in mature wether sheep, it is likely that productive ruminants with higher protein requirements would retain more N from silages containing chestnut tannins. Tannins added externally to grass silages may generate some benefits on N utilisation and environmental N excretions in sheep fed the silages.

Activation of lower back muscles via FES for pressure sores prevention in paraplegia: a case study

The aim of this paper is to show the feasibility of the use of functional electrical stimulation (FES) applied to the lower back muscles for pressure sores prevention in paraplegia. The hypothesis under study is that FES induces a change in the pressure distribution on the contact area during sitting. Tests were conducted on a paraplegic subject (T5), sitting on a standard wheelchair and cushion. Trunk extensors (mainly the erector spinae) were stimulated using surface electrodes placed on the skin. A pressure mapping system was used to measure the pressure on the sitting surface in four situations: (a) no stimulation; (b) stimulation on one side of the spine only; (c) stimulation on both sides, at different levels; and (d) stimulation at the same level on both sides, during pressure-relief manoeuvres. A session of prolonged stimulation was also conducted. The experimental results show that the stimulation of the erector spinae on one side of the spine can induce a trunk rotation on the sagittal plane, which causes a change in the pressure distribution. A decrease of pressure on the side opposite to the stimulation was recorded. The phenomenon is intensified when different levels of stimulation are applied to the two sides, and such change can be sustained for a considerable time (around 5 minutes). The stimulation did not induce changes during pressure-relief manoeuvres. Finally, from this research we can conclude that the stimulation of the trunk extensors can be a useful tool for pressure sores prevention, and can potentially be used in a routine for pressure sores prevention based on periodical weight shifts.

Have increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) losses from UK peat and organo-mineral soils been driven by the decline in acid rain?

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations have been rising in streams and lakes draining catchments with organic soils across Northern Europe. These increases have shown a correlation with decreased sulphate and chloride concentrations. One hypothesis to explain this phenomenon is that these relationships are due an increased in DOC release from soils to freshwaters, caused by a decline in pollutant sulphur and sea-salt deposition. We carried out controlled deposition experiments in the laboratory on intact peat and organomineral O-horizon cores to test this hypothesis. Preliminary data showed a clear correlation between the change in soil water pH and change in DOC concentrations, however uncertainty still remains about whether this is due to changes in biological activity or chemical solubility.