Do preference reversals generalise? Results on ambiguity and loss aversion

Preference reversals are frequently observed in the lab, but almost all designs use completely transparent prospects, which are rarely features of decision making elsewhere. This raises questions of external validity. We test the robustness of the phenomenon to gambles that incorporate realistic ambiguity in both payoffs and probabilities. In addition, we test a recent explanation of preference reversals by loss aversion, which would also restrict the incidence of reversals outside the lab. According to this account, reversals occur largely because the valuation task endows subject with a gamble, activating loss aversion. This contrasts with the choice task, where the reference point is pre-experiment wealth. We test this explanation by holding the reference point constant. Our evidence suggests that reversals are only slightly diminished with ambiguity. We find no evidence supporting their explanation by loss aversion.

The effect of accountability on loss aversion.

This paper investigates the effect of accountability-the expectation on the side of the decision maker of having to justify his/her decisions to somebody else-on loss aversion. Loss aversion is commonly thought to be the strongest component of risk aversion. Accountability is found to reduce the bias of loss aversion. This effect is explained by the higher cognitive effort induced by accountability, which triggers a rational check on emotional reactions at the base of loss aversion, leading to a reduction of the latter. Connections to dual-processing models are discussed.

Preference reversals for ambiguity aversion

This paper finds preference reversals in measurements of ambiguity aversion, even if psychological and informational circumstances are kept constant. The reversals are of a fundamentally different nature than the reversals found before because they cannot be explained by context-dependent weightings of attributes. We offer an explanation based on Sugden's random-reference theory, with different elicitation methods generating different random reference points. Then measurements of ambiguity aversion that use willingness to pay are confounded by loss aversion and hence overestimate ambiguity aversion.

Risk-taking for others under accountability

We let subjects take risky decisions that affect themselves and a passive recipient. Adding a requirement to justify their choices significantly reduces loss aversion. This indicates that such an accountability mechanism may be effective at debiasing loss aversion in agency relations.

Responsibility effects in decision making under risk

We systematically explore decision situations in which a decision maker bears responsibility for somebody else's outcomes as well as for her own in situations of payoff equality. In the gain domain we confirm the intuition that being responsible for somebody else's payoffs increases risk aversion. This is however not attributable to a 'cautious shift' as often thought. Indeed, looking at risk attitudes in the loss domain, we find an increase in risk seeking under responsibility. This raises issues about the nature of various decision biases under risk, and to what extent changed behavior under responsibility may depend on a social norm of caution in situations of responsibility versus naive corrections from perceived biases. To further explore this issue, we designed a second experiment to explore risk-taking behavior for gain prospects offering very small or very large probabilities of winning. For large probabilities, we find increased risk aversion, thus confirming our earlier finding. For small probabilities however, we find an increase of risk seeking under conditions of responsibility. The latter finding thus discredits hypotheses of a social rule dictating caution under responsibility, and can be explained through flexible self-correction models predicting an accentuation of the fourfold pattern of risk attitudes predicted by prospect theory. An additional accountability mechanism does not change risk behavior, except for mixed prospects, in which it reduces loss aversion. This indicates that loss aversion is of a fundamentally different nature than probability weighting or utility curvature. Implications for debiasing are discussed.

Risk taking for oneself and others: a structural model approach

Economic theory makes no predictions about social factors affecting decisions under risk. We examine situations in which a decision maker decides for herself and another person under conditions of payoff equality, and compare them to individual decisions. By estimating a structural model, we find that responsibility leaves utility curvature unaffected, but accentuates the subjective distortion of very small and very large probabilities for both gains and losses. We also find that responsibility reduces loss aversion, but that these results only obtain under some specific definitions of the latter. These results serve to generalize and reconcile some of the still largely contradictory findings in the literature. They also have implications for financial agency, which we discuss.

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool: a simple model of diffuse P loss from agricultural land to water

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool provides a catchment-scale estimation of diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface waters using the most appropriate indicators of P loss. The Tool provides a framework that may be applied across the UK to estimate P loss, which is sensitive not only to land use and management but also to environmental factors such as climate, soil type and topography. The model complexity incorporated in the P Indicators Tool has been adapted to the level of detail in the available data and the need to reflect the impact of changes in agriculture. Currently, the Tool runs on an annual timestep and at a 1 km(2) grid scale. We demonstrate that the P Indicators Tool works in principle and that its modular structure provides a means of accounting for P loss from one layer to the next, and ultimately to receiving waters. Trial runs of the Tool suggest that modelled P delivery to water approximates measured water quality records. The transparency of the structure of the P Indicators Tool means that identification of poorly performing coefficients is possible, and further refinements of the Tool can be made to ensure it is better calibrated and subsequently validated against empirical data, as it becomes available.

The effects of difficulty and gain versus loss on vocal physiology and acoustics

To examine the basis of emotional changes to the voice, physiological and electroglottal measures were combined with acoustic speech analysis of 30 men performing a computer task in which they lost or gained points under two levels of difficulty. Predictions of the main effects of difficulty and reward on the voice were not borne out by the data. Instead, vocal changes depended largely on interactions between gain versus loss and difficulty. The rate at which the vocal folds open and close (fundamental frequency; f0) was higher for loss than for gain when difficulty was high, but not when difficulty was low. Electroglottal measures revealed that f0 changes corresponded to shorter glottal open times for the loss conditions. Longer closed and shorter open phases were consistent with raised laryngeal tension in difficult loss conditions. Similarly, skin conductance indicated higher sympathetic arousal in loss than gain conditions, particularly when difficulty was high. The results provide evidence of the physiological basis of affective vocal responses, confirming the utility of measuring physiology and voice in the study of emotion.

The imminent availability of a potent weight-loss medicine in pharmacies: public perception of effectiveness

Orlistat is an effective weight-loss medicine, which will soon be available for purchase in pharmacies. We used a factorial experiment and found that informing people about the availability for purchase of this medicinal product previously only available on prescription resulted in higher ratings of perceived value and effectiveness compared to a natural health supplement even though we used the same statement about effectiveness. This positive perception of orlistat was not impaired by the provision of side-effect information. Orlistat will soon be available in pharmacies. Health professionals must act to prevent its misuse by those not overweight.

Dispersal capacity and diet breadth modify the response of wild bees to habitat loss

Habitat loss poses a major threat to biodiversity, and species-specific extinction risks are inextricably linked to life-history characteristics. This relationship is still poorly documented for many functionally important taxa, and at larger continental scales. With data from five replicated field studies from three countries, we examined how species richness of wild bees varies with habitat patch size. We hypothesized that the form of this relationship is affected by body size, degree of host plant specialization and sociality. Across all species, we found a positive species–area slope (z ¼ 0.19), and species traits modified this relationship. Large-bodied generalists had a lower z value than small generalists. Contrary to predictions, small specialists had similar or slightly lower z value compared with large specialists, and small generalists also tended to be more strongly affected by habitat loss as compared with small specialists. Social bees were negatively affected by habitat loss (z ¼ 0.11) irrespective of body size. We conclude that habitat loss leads to clear shifts in the species composition of wild bee communities.

Formulation of a live bacterial vaccine for stable room temperature storage results in loss of acid, bile and bile salt resistance

Live bacterial vaccines have great promise both as vaccines against enteric pathogens and as heterologous antigen vectors against diverse diseases. Ideally, room temperature stable dry formulations of live bacterial vaccines will allow oral vaccination without cold-chain storage or injections. Attenuated Salmonella can cross the intestinal wall and deliver replicating antigen plus innate immune activation signals directly to the intestinal immune tissues, however the ingested bacteria must survive firstly gastric acid and secondly the antimicrobial defences of the small intestine. We found that the way in which cells are grown prior to formulation markedly affects sensitivity to acid and bile. Using a previously published stable storage formulation that maintained over 10% viability after 56 days storage at room temperature, we found dried samples of an attenuated S. typhimurium vaccine lost acid and bile resistance compared to the same bacteria taken from fresh culture. The stable formulation utilised osmotic preconditioning in defined medium plus elevated salt concentration to induce intracellular trehalose accumulation before drying. Dried bacteria grown in rich media without osmotic preconditioning showed more resistance to bile, but less stability during storage, suggesting a trade-off between bile resistance and stability. Further optimization is needed to produce the ultimate room-temperature stable oral live bacterial vaccine formulation.

Mitigation options for sediment and phosphorus loss from winter-sown arable crops

Sediment and P inputs to freshwaters from agriculture are a major problem in the United Kingdom (UK). This study investigated mitigation options for diffuse pollution losses from arable land. Field trials were undertaken at the hillslope scale over three winters at three UK sites with silt (Oxyaquic Hapludalf), sand (Udic Haplustept), and clay (Typic Haplaquept) soils. None of the mitigation treatments was effective in every year trialled, but each showed overall average reductions in losses. Over five site years, breaking up the compaction in tramlines (tractor wheel tracks) using a tine reduced losses of sediment and P to losses similar to those observed from areas without tramlines, with an average reduction in P loss of 1.06 kg TP ha(-1) Compared to traditional plowing, TP losses under minimum tillage were reduced by 0.30 kg TT ha(-1) over five site years, TP losses under contour cultivation were reduced by 0.30 kg TP ha(-1) over two site years, and TP losses using in-field barriers were reduced by 0.24 kg TP ha(-1) over two site years. In one site year, reductions in losses due to crop residue incorporation were nor significant. Each of the mitigation options trialled. is associated with a small cost at the farm-scale of up to 5 pound ha(-1), or with cost savings. The results indicate that each of the treatments his the potential to be a cost-effective mitigation option, but that tramline management is the most promising treatment, because tramlines dominate sediment and P transfer in surface runoff from arable hillslopes.

Inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in a reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel

Many populations have recovered from severe bottlenecks either naturally or through intensive conservation management. In the past, however, few conservation programs have monitored the genetic health of recovering populations. We conducted a conservation genetic assessment of a small, reintroduced population of Mauritius Kestrel (Falco punctatus) to determine whether genetic deterioration has occurred since its reintroduction. We used pedigree analysis that partially accounted for individuals of unknown origin to document that (1) inbreeding occurred frequently (2.6% increase per generation; N-el = 18.9), (2) 25% of breeding pairs were composed of either closely or moderately related individuals, (3) genetic diversity has been lost from the population (1,6% loss per generation; N-ev = 32.1) less rapidly than the corresponding increase in inbreeding, and (4) ignoring the contribution of unknown individuals to a pedigree will bias the metrics derived from that pedigree, ultimately obscuring the prevailing genetic dynamics. The rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in the subpopulation of Mauritius Kestrel we examined were extreme and among the highest yet documented in a wild vertebrate population. Thus, genetic deterioration may affect this population's long-term viability. Remedial conservation strategies are needed to reduce the impact of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation in this species, We suggest that schemes to monitor genetic variation after reintroduction should be an integral component of endangered species recovery programs