Characterising loss and damage from climate change

Policy-makers are creating mechanisms to help developing countries cope with loss and damage from climate change, but the negotiations are largely neglecting scientific questions about what the impacts of climate change actually are. Mitigation efforts have failed to prevent the continued increase of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptation is now unlikely to be sufficient to prevent negative impacts from current and future climate change1. In this context, vulnerable nations argue that existing frameworks to promote mitigation and adaptation are inadequate, and have called for a third international mechanism to deal with residual climate change impacts, or “loss and damage���2. In 2013, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) responded to these calls and established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to address loss and damage from the impacts of climate change in developing countries3. An interim Executive Committee of party representatives has been set up, and is currently drafting a two-year workplan comprising meetings, reports, and expert groups; and aiming to enhance knowledge and understanding of loss and damage, strengthen dialogue among stakeholders, and promote enhanced action and support. Issues identified as priorities for the WIM thus far include: how to deal with non-economic losses, such as loss of life, livelihood, and cultural heritage; and linkages between loss and damage and patterns of migration and displacement2. In all this, one fundamental issue still demands our attention: which losses and damages are relevant to the WIM? What counts as loss and damage from climate change?

Implications of event attribution for loss and damage policy

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has established the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) to deal with loss and damage associated with climate change impacts, including extreme events, in developing countries. It is not yet known whether events will need to be attributed to anthropogenic climate change to be considered under the WIM. Attribution is possible for some extreme events- a climate model assessment can estimate how greenhouse gas emissions have affected the likelihood of their occurrence. Dialogue between scientists and stakeholders is required to establish whether, and how, this science could play a role in the WIM.

Stakeholder perceptions of event attribution in the loss and damage debate

In 2013 the Warsaw International Mechanism (WIM) for loss and damage (L&D) associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). For scientists, L&D raises ques- tions around the extent that such impacts can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change, which may generate complex results and be controversial in the policy arena. This is particularly true in the case of probabilistic event attribution (PEA) science, a new and rapidly evolving field that assesses whether changes in the probabilities of extreme events are attributable to GHG emissions. If the potential applications of PEA are to be considered responsibly, dialogue between scientists and policy makers is fundamental. Two key questions are considered here through a literature review and key stakeholder interviews with representatives from the science and policy sectors underpinning L&D. These provided the opportunity for in-depth insights into stakeholders’ views on firstly, how much is known and understood about PEA by those associated with the L&D debate? Secondly, how might PEA inform L&D and wider climate policy? Results show debate within the climate science community, and limited understanding among other stakeholders, around the sense in which extreme events can be attributed to climate change. However, stake- holders do identify and discuss potential uses for PEA in the WIM and wider policy, but it remains difficult to explore precise applications given the ambiguity surrounding L&D. This implies a need for stakeholders to develop greater understandings of alternative conceptions of L&D and the role of science, and also identify how PEA can best be used to support policy, and address associated challenges.

Attribution of extreme weather events in Africa: A preliminary exploration of the science and policy implications

At the most recent session of the Conference of the Parties (COP19) in Warsaw (November 2013) the Warsaw international mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts was established under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The mechanism aims at promoting the implementation of approaches to address loss and damage associated with the adverse effects of climate change. Specifically, it aims to enhance understanding of risk management approaches to address loss and damage. Understanding risks associated with impacts due to highly predictable (slow onset) events like sea-level rise is relatively straightforward whereas assessing the effects of climate change on extreme weather events and their impacts is much more difficult. However, extreme weather events are a significant cause of loss of life and livelihoods, particularly in vulnerable countries and communities in Africa. The emerging science of probabilistic event attribution is relevant as it provides scientific evidence on the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to changes in risk of extreme events. It thus provides the opportunity to explore scientifically-backed assessments of the human influence on such events. However, different ways of framing attribution questions can lead to very different assessments of change in risk. Here we explain the methods of, and implications of different approaches to attributing extreme weather events with a focus on Africa. Crucially, it demonstrates that defining the most appropriate attribution question to ask is not a science decision but needs to be made in dialogue with those stakeholders who will use the answers.

Anna In-Between: Caribbean and not Caribbean: attachment, loss and strange Longing: a conversation with Elizabeth Nunez

Presents an interview with Elizabeth Nunez, author and professor. Nunez discusses the issues on migration, family, and intimacy which are the topics of her novel "Anna In-Between." She explains the demands of the publishing industry that cast a shadow in the world of the novel and the real world of Caribbean writers. This interview was translated by Maria Lusia Ruiz.

Modelling European winter wind storm losses in current and future climate

Severe wind storms are one of the major natural hazards in the extratropics and inflict substantial economic damages and even casualties. Insured storm-related losses depend on (i) the frequency, nature and dynamics of storms, (ii) the vulnerability of the values at risk, (iii) the geographical distribution of these values, and (iv) the particular conditions of the risk transfer. It is thus of great importance to assess the impact of climate change on future storm losses. To this end, the current study employs—to our knowledge for the first time—a coupled approach, using output from high-resolution regional climate model scenarios for the European sector to drive an operational insurance loss model. An ensemble of coupled climate-damage scenarios is used to provide an estimate of the inherent uncertainties. Output of two state-of-the-art global climate models (HadAM3, ECHAM5) is used for present (1961–1990) and future climates (2071–2100, SRES A2 scenario). These serve as boundary data for two nested regional climate models with a sophisticated gust parametrizations (CLM, CHRM). For validation and calibration purposes, an additional simulation is undertaken with the CHRM driven by the ERA40 reanalysis. The operational insurance model (Swiss Re) uses a European-wide damage function, an average vulnerability curve for all risk types, and contains the actual value distribution of a complete European market portfolio. The coupling between climate and damage models is based on daily maxima of 10 m gust winds, and the strategy adopted consists of three main steps: (i) development and application of a pragmatic selection criterion to retrieve significant storm events, (ii) generation of a probabilistic event set using a Monte-Carlo approach in the hazard module of the insurance model, and (iii) calibration of the simulated annual expected losses with a historic loss data base. The climate models considered agree regarding an increase in the intensity of extreme storms in a band across central Europe (stretching from southern UK and northern France to Denmark, northern Germany into eastern Europe). This effect increases with event strength, and rare storms show the largest climate change sensitivity, but are also beset with the largest uncertainties. Wind gusts decrease over northern Scandinavia and Southern Europe. Highest intra-ensemble variability is simulated for Ireland, the UK, the Mediterranean, and parts of Eastern Europe. The resulting changes on European-wide losses over the 110-year period are positive for all layers and all model runs considered and amount to 44% (annual expected loss), 23% (10 years loss), 50% (30 years loss), and 104% (100 years loss). There is a disproportionate increase in losses for rare high-impact events. The changes result from increases in both severity and frequency of wind gusts. Considerable geographical variability of the expected losses exists, with Denmark and Germany experiencing the largest loss increases (116% and 114%, respectively). All countries considered except for Ireland (−22%) experience some loss increases. Some ramifications of these results for the socio-economic sector are discussed, and future avenues for research are highlighted. The technique introduced in this study and its application to realistic market portfolios offer exciting prospects for future research on the impact of climate change that is relevant for policy makers, scientists and economists.

The effects of difficulty and gain versus loss on vocal physiology and acoustics

To examine the basis of emotional changes to the voice, physiological and electroglottal measures were combined with acoustic speech analysis of 30 men performing a computer task in which they lost or gained points under two levels of difficulty. Predictions of the main effects of difficulty and reward on the voice were not borne out by the data. Instead, vocal changes depended largely on interactions between gain versus loss and difficulty. The rate at which the vocal folds open and close (fundamental frequency; f0) was higher for loss than for gain when difficulty was high, but not when difficulty was low. Electroglottal measures revealed that f0 changes corresponded to shorter glottal open times for the loss conditions. Longer closed and shorter open phases were consistent with raised laryngeal tension in difficult loss conditions. Similarly, skin conductance indicated higher sympathetic arousal in loss than gain conditions, particularly when difficulty was high. The results provide evidence of the physiological basis of affective vocal responses, confirming the utility of measuring physiology and voice in the study of emotion.

Loss of language in early development of autism and specific language impairment

Background:  Several authors have highlighted areas of overlap in symptoms and impairment among children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and children with specific language impairment (SLI). By contrast, loss of language and broadly defined regression have been reported as relatively specific to autism. We compare the incidence of language loss and language progression of children with autism and SLI. Methods:  We used two complementary studies: the Special Needs and Autism Project (SNAP) and the Manchester Language Study (MLS) involving children with SLI. This yielded a combined sample of 368 children (305 males and 63 females) assessed in late childhood for autism, history of language loss, epilepsy, language abilities and nonverbal IQ. Results:  language loss occurred in just 1% of children with SLI but in 15% of children classified as having autism or autism spectrum disorder. Loss was more common among children with autism rather than milder ASD and is much less frequently reported when language development is delayed. For children who lost language skills before their first phrases, the phrased speech milestone was postponed but long-term language skills were not significantly lower than children with autism but without loss. For the few who experienced language loss after acquiring phrased speech, subsequent cognitive performance is more uncertain. Conclusions:  Language loss is highly specific to ASD. The underlying developmental abnormality may be more prevalent than raw data might suggest, its possible presence being hidden for children whose language development is delayed.

Ecosystem services and food production

By 2030, the world’s human population could rise to 8 billion people and world food demand may increase by 50%. Although food production outpaced population growth in the 20th century, it is clear that the environmental costs of these increases cannot be sustained into the future. This challenges us to re-think the way we produce food. We argue that viewing food production systems within an ecosystems context provides the basis for 21st century food production. An ecosystems view recognises that food production systems depend on ecosystem services but also have ecosystem impacts. These dependencies and impacts are often poorly understood by many people and frequently overlooked. We provide an overview of the key ecosystem services involved in different food production systems, including crop and livestock production, aquaculture and the harvesting of wild nature. We highlight the important ecosystem impacts of food production systems, including habitat loss and degradation, changes to water and nutrient cycles across a range of scales, and biodiversity loss. These impacts often undermine the very ecosystem services on which food production systems depend, as well as other ecosystem services unrelated to food. We argue that addressing these impacts requires us to re-design food production systems to recognise and manage the limitations on production imposed by the ecosystems within which they are embedded, and increasingly embrace a more multifunctional view of food production systems and associated ecosystems. In this way, we should be able to produce food more sustainably whilst inflicting less damage on other important ecosystem services.

Determining the cost of in-field mitigation options to reduce sediment and phosphorus loss

The Mitigation Options for Phosphorus and Sediment (MOPS) project investigated the effectiveness of within-field control measures (tramline management, straw residue management, type of cultivation and direction, and vegetative buffers) in terms of mitigating sediment and phosphorus loss from winter-sown combinable cereal crops using three case study sites. To determine the cost of the approaches, simple financial spreadsheet models were constructed at both farm and regional levels. Taking into account crop areas, crop rotation margins per hectare were calculated to reflect the costs of crop establishment, fertiliser and agro-chemical applications, harvesting, and the associated labour and machinery costs. Variable and operating costs associated with each mitigation option were then incorporated to demonstrate the impact on the relevant crop enterprise and crop rotation margins. These costs were then compared to runoff, sediment and phosphorus loss data obtained from monitoring hillslope-length scale field plots. Each of the mitigation options explored in this study had potential for reducing sediment and phosphorus losses from arable land under cereal crops. Sediment losses were reduced from between 9 kg ha−1 to as much as 4780 kg ha−1 with a corresponding reduction in phosphorus loss from 0.03 kg ha−1 to 2.89 kg ha−1. In percentage terms reductions of phosphorus were between 9% and 99%. Impacts on crop rotation margins also varied. Minimum tillage resulted in cost savings (up to £50 ha−1) whilst other options showed increased costs (up to £19 ha−1 for straw residue incorporation). Overall, the results indicate that each of the options has potential for on-farm implementation. However, tramline management appeared to have the greatest potential for reducing runoff, sediment, and phosphorus losses from arable land (between 69% and 99%) and is likely to be considered cost-effective with only a small additional cost of £2–4 ha−1, although further work is needed to evaluate alternative tramline management methods. Tramline management is also the only option not incorporated within current policy mechanisms associated with reducing soil erosion and phosphorus loss and in light of its potential is an approach that should be encouraged once further evidence is available.

Emotional well-being and adjustment to vision loss in later life: a meta-synthesis of qualitative studies.

Purpose: To review perceived emotional well-being in older people with visual impairment and perceived factors that inhibit/facilitate psychosocial adjustment to vision loss. Method: The databases of MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO and CINAHL were searched for studies published from January 1980 to December 2010, which recruited older people with irreversible vision loss, and used qualitative methods for both data collection and analysis. Results sections of the papers were synthesised using a thematic-style analysis to identify the emergent and dominant themes. Results: Seventeen qualitative papers were included in the review, and five main themes emerged from the synthesis: 1) the trauma of an ophthalmic diagnosis, 2) impact of vision loss on daily life, 3) negative impact of visual impairment on psychosocial well-being, 4) factors that inhibit social well-being, and 5) factors that facilitate psychological well-being. We found the response shift model useful for explaining our synthesis. Conclusions: Acquired visual impairment can have a significant impact on older people's well-being and make psychosocial adjustment to the condition a major challenge. Acceptance of the condition and a positive attitude facilitate successful psychosocial adjustment to vision loss as well as social support from family, friends and peers who have successfully adjusted to the condition. [Box: see text].

Neural stem cells and cell replacement therapy: making the right cells

The past few years have seen major advances in the field of NSC (neural stem cell) research with increasing emphasis towards its application in cell-replacement therapy for neurological disorders. However, the clinical application of NSCs will remain largely unfeasible until a comprehensive understanding of the cellular and molecular mechanisms of NSC fate specification is achieved. With this understanding will come an increased possibility to exploit the potential of stem cells in order to manufacture transplantable NSCs able to provide a safe and effective therapy for previously untreatable neurological disorders. Since the pathology of each of these disorders is determined by the loss or damage of a specific neural cell population, it may be necessary to generate a range of NSCs able to replace specific neurons or glia rather than generating a generic NSC population. Currently, a diverse range of strategies is being investigated with this goal in mind. In this review, we focus on the relationship between NSC specification and differentiation and discuss how this information may be used to direct NSCs towards a particular fate.

Contrasting success in the restoration of plant and phytophagous beetle assemblages of species-rich mesotrophic grasslands

Over the last 60 years changes to the management of species-rich mesotrophic grasslands have resulted in the large-scale loss and degradation of this habitat across Europe. Restoration of such grasslands on agriculturally improved pastures provides a potentially valuable approach to the conservation of these threatened areas. Over a four-year period a replicated block design was used to test the effects of seed addition (green hay spreading and brush harvest collection) and soil disturbance on the restoration of phytophagous beetle and plant communities. Patterns of increasing restoration success, particularly where hay spreading and soil disturbance were used in combination, were identified for the phytophagous beetles. In the case of the plants, however, initial differences in restoration success in response to these same treatments were not followed by subsequent temporal changes in plant community similarity to target mesotrophic grassland. It is possible that the long-term consequences of the management treatments would not be the establishment of beetle and plant communities characteristic of the targets for restoration. Restoration management to enhance plant establishment using hay spreading and soil disturbance techniques would, however, still increase community similarity in both taxa to that of species-rich mesotrophic grasslands, and so raise their conservation value.

Farm level tree planting in Pakistan: The role of farmers' perceptions and attitudes

The low proportion of forested land and continuing degradation of existing forest cover are serious threats to the sustainability of forestry in Pakistan. Farm forestry has been identified as a feasible solution, particularly in the plain areas. Applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour in a survey of 124 farmers in Dera Ismail Khan district of Pakistan's North West Frontier Province showed that farmers' willingness to grow trees on their farms is a function of their attitudes towards the advantages and disadvantages of growing trees, their perception of the opinions of salient referents and factors that encourage and discourage farm level tree planting. Farmers viewed farm forestry as economically beneficial and environmentally friendly. Tree planting was perceived as increasing income, providing wood for fuel and furniture, controlling erosion and pollution and providing shade for humans and animals. Farmers saw hindrance in agricultural operations and the harbouring of insects, pests and diseases as negative impacts of tree planting; however, these were outweighed by their perceptions of positive impacts. Tree growing decisions of farmers were influenced by the opinions of family members, owners/tenants, fellow farmers and village elders. The factors that significantly predicted farm level tree planting were availability of barren land, lack of markets, lack of nurseries and damage caused by animals and humans. Farm forestry programmes are more likely to be successful if they acknowledge and address the factors which underlie farmers' reasons for planting or not planting trees.

Solid-state interconversions of coordination networks and hydrogen-bonded salts

Thermal or chemical treatment of crystalline 4,4-bipyridinium salts of [MCl4]2- (M=Co, Zn, Fe, or Pt) leads to HCl loss and formation of coordination network solids [{MCl2(4,4-bipy)}n]. For M=Co, Zn, and Fe, these solids can also be prepared by mechanochemical means. Their exposure to HCl vapor or the mechanochemical reaction of metal dichlorides with [4,4-H2bipy]Cl2 gives [4,4-H2bipy]2+ salts of [CoCl4]2-, [ZnCl4]2-, and, for the first time, [FeCl4]2-.