Sources, sinks, and transatlantic transport of North African dust aerosol: a multimodel analysis and comparison with remote sensing data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

Longitudinal investigation of the faecal microbiota of healthy full-term infants using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.

From birth onwards, the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of infants progressively acquires a complex range of micro-organisms. It is thought that by 2 years of age the GI microbial population has stabilized. Within the developmental period of the infant GI microbiota, weaning is considered to be most critical, as the infant switches from a milk-based diet (breast and/or formula) to a variety of food components. Longitudinal analysis of the biological succession of the infant GI/faecal microbiota is lacking. In this study, faecal samples were obtained regularly from 14 infants from 1 month to 18 months of age. Seven of the infants (including a set of twins) were exclusively breast-fed and seven were exclusively formula-fed prior to weaning, with 175 and 154 faecal samples, respectively, obtained from each group. Diversity and dynamics of the infant faecal microbiota were analysed by using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Overall, the data demonstrated large inter- and intra-individual differences in the faecal microbiological profiles during the study period. However, the infant faecal microbiota merged with time towards a climax community within and between feeding groups. Data from the twins showed the highest degree of similarity both quantitatively and qualitatively. Inter-individual variation was evident within the infant faecal microbiota and its development, even within exclusively formula-fed infants receiving the same diet. These data can be of help to future clinical trials (e.g. targeted weaning products) to organize protocols and obtain a more accurate outline of the changes and dynamics of the infant GI microbiota.

The response of a uniform horizontal temperature gradient to heating

The response of a uniform horizontal temperature gradient to prescribed fixed heating is calculated in the context of an extended version of surface quasigeostrophic dynamics. It is found that for zero mean surface flow and weak cross-gradient structure the prescribed heating induces a mean temperature anomaly proportional to the spatial Hilbert transform of the heating. The interior potential vorticity generated by the heating enhances this surface response. The time-varying part is independent of the heating and satisfies the usual linearized surface quasigeostrophic dynamics. It is shown that the surface temperature tendency is a spatial Hilbert transform of the temperature anomaly itself. It then follows that the temperature anomaly is periodically modulated with a frequency proportional to the vertical wind shear. A strong local bound on wave energy is also found. Reanalysis diagnostics are presented that indicate consistency with key findings from this theory.

A new perspective on blocking

It is argued that the essential aspect of atmospheric blocking may be seen in the wave breaking of potential temperature (θ) on a potential vorticity (PV) surface, which may be identified with the tropopause, and the consequent reversal of the usual meridional temperature gradient of θ. A new dynamical blocking index is constructed using a meridional θ difference on a PV surface. Unlike in previous studies, the central blocking latitude about which this difference is constructed is allowed to vary with longitude. At each longitude it is determined by the latitude at which the climatological high-pass transient eddy kinetic energy is a maximum. Based on the blocking index, at each longitude local instantaneous blocking, large-scale blocking, and blocking episodes are defined. For longitudinal sectors, sector blocking and sector blocking episodes are also defined. The 5-yr annual climatologies of the three longitudinally defined blocking event frequencies and the seasonal climatologies of blocking episode frequency are shown. The climatologies all pick out the eastern North Atlantic–Europe and eastern North Pacific–western North America regions. There is evidence that Pacific blocking shifts into the western central Pacific in the summer. Sector blocking episodes of 4 days or more are shown to exhibit different persistence characteristics to shorter events, showing that blocking is not just the long timescale tail end of a distribution. The PV–θ index results for the annual average location of Pacific blocking agree with synoptic studies but disagree with modern quantitative height field–based studies. It is considered that the index used here is to be preferred anyway because of its dynamical basis. However, the longitudinal discrepancy is found to be associated with the use in the height field index studies of a central blocking latitude that is independent of longitude. In particular, the use in the North Pacific of a latitude that is suitable for the eastern North Atlantic leads to spurious categorization of blocking there. Furthermore, the PV–θ index is better able to detect Ω blocking than conventional height field indices.

Projected gradient approach to the numerical solution of the SCoTLASS

The SCoTLASS problem-principal component analysis modified so that the components satisfy the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) constraint-is reformulated as a dynamical system on the unit sphere. The LASSO inequality constraint is tackled by exterior penalty function. A globally convergent algorithm is developed based on the projected gradient approach. The algorithm is illustrated numerically and discussed on a well-known data set. (c) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion to tick-borne pathogens in smallholder dairy youngstock in Tanzania

A longitudinal study of sero-conversion of youngstock to the tick-borne pathogens Theileria parva, T mutans, Anaplasma marginale, Babesia bigemina and B. bovis was conducted over two years on smallholder dairy farms in Tanga region, Tanzania. There was evidence of maternal antibodies to all tick-borne pathogens in animals less than 18 weeks of age. Seroprevalence increased as expected with age in animals older than this but seroprevalence profiles underestimated the force of infection due to waning antibody levels between samplings. By the end of the 2-year study, less than 50% of study animals had seroconverted to each of the tick-borne pathogens investigated, consistent with the low levels of tick attachment observed on the study animals. Some associations between seroconversion to tick-borne pathogens, and counts of their known tick vectors on the animals, were identified as expected. However, some were not, suggesting that counts of some tick species may act as an index of rates of attachment of other vector species. Variation in acaricide treatment frequencies was not associated with variations in tick-borne pathogen seroprevalence suggesting that acaricides may be used more frequently than necessary on many farms. Most animals were zero-grazed, a management system associated with a significantly lower likelihood that animals seroconverted to any tick-borne pathogen exceptA. marginale. Seroprevalence varied locally with farm location (particularly for Babesia spp.) but was not well predicted by indices of ecological conditions. Our findings suggest that attempts to achieve a state of 'endemic stability' for tick-bome pathogens may be unreasonable on the smallholder dairy farms studied but reductions in the frequency of use of acaricides may be possible following prospective studies of effects on mortality and morbidity due to tick-bome pathogens. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A case study of sample design for longitudinal research: young lives

This paper presents a case study to illustrate the range of decisions involved in designing a sampling strategy for a complex, longitudinal research study. It is based on experience from the Young Lives project and identifies the approaches used to sample children for longitudinal follow-up in four less developed countries (LDCs). The rationale for decisions made and the resulting benefits, and limitations, of the approaches adopted are discussed. Of particular importance is the choice of sampling approach to yield useful analysis; specific examples are presented of how this informed the design of the Young Lives sampling strategy.

Longitudinal selenium status in healthy British adults: assessment using biochemical and molecular biomarkers

Human selenium (Se) requirements are currently based on biochemical markers of Se status. In rats, tissue glutathione peroxidase-1 (Gpx1) mRNA levels can be used effectively to determine Se requirements; blood Gpx1 mRNA levels decrease in Se-deficient rats, so molecular biology-based markers have potential for human nutrition assessment. To study the efficacy of molecular biology markers for assessing Se status in humans, we conducted a longitudinal study on 39 subjects (age 45 +/- 11) in Reading, UK. Diet diaries (5 day) and blood were obtained from each subject at 2, 8, 17 and 23 weeks, and plasma Se, glutathione peroxidase (Gpx3) enzyme activity, and selenoprotein mRNA levels were determined. There were no significant longitudinal effects on Se biomarkers. Se intake averaged 48 +/- 14 mu g/d. Plasma Se concentrations averaged 1.13 +/- 0.16 mu mol/l. Plasma Se v. energy-corrected Se intake (ng Se/kJ/d) was significantly correlated, but neither Gpx3 activity v. Se intake (ng Se/kJ/d) nor Gpx3 activity v. plasma Se was significantly correlated. Collectively, this indicates that subjects were on the plateaus of the response curves. Selenoprotein mRNAs were quantitated in total RNA isolated from whole blood, but mRNA levels for Gpx1, selenoprotein H, and selenoprotein W (all highly regulated by Se in rodents), as well selenoprotein P, Gpx3, and phospholipid hydroperoxide glutathione peroxidase were also not significantly correlated with plasma Se. Thus selenoprotein molecular biomarkers, as well as traditional biochemical markers, are unable to further distinguish differences in Se status in these Se replete subjects. The efficacy of molecular biomarkers to detect Se deficiency needs to be tested in Se-deficient populations.

Educational participation post-16: a longitudinal analysis of intentions and outcomes

The issue of levels of participation in post-compulsory education has been emphasised by the current policy initiatives to increase the age to which some form of participation is compulsory. One of the acknowledged weaknesses of research in the field of children's intentions with regard to participation is the lack of longitudinal data. This paper offers a longitudinal analysis using the Youth Survey from the British Household Panel Survey. The results show that most children can express intentions with regard to future participation very early in their secondary school careers and that these intentions are good predictors of actual behaviour five years later. Intentions to stay on are more consistent than intentions to leave and most children who finally leave at 16 have at some point said they want to remain in education post-16. The strongest association with participation levels is attainment at GCSE. However, there are also influences of gender and parental background and these remain, even after attainment is held constant. The results show the value of focusing on intentions for participation at a very early stage of children's school careers and also the importance of current attempts to reform curriculum and assessment for the 14-19 age group.

The development of children of postnatally depressed mothers: evidence from the Cambridge longitudinal study

Children with a parent who suffers from depression are at raised risk for the disorder themselves. Relatively little is known about the development of psychological vulnerability to depression through childhood, particularly during infancy and early childhood. This paper describes results from a longitudinal prospective study of the development of children, studied from birth to 16 years, of mothers who experienced postnatal depression; it highlights the roles of the developing mother-child relationship, and of physiological functioning and social relationships in the development of adolescent vulnerability.