Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.

Modeling cumulative evidence for freedom from disease with applications to BSE surveillance trials

This investigation deals with the question of when a particular population can be considered to be disease-free. The motivation is the case of BSE where specific birth cohorts may present distinct disease-free subpopulations. The specific objective is to develop a statistical approach suitable for documenting freedom of disease, in particular, freedom from BSE in birth cohorts. The approach is based upon a geometric waiting time distribution for the occurrence of positive surveillance results and formalizes the relationship between design prevalence, cumulative sample size and statistical power. The simple geometric waiting time model is further modified to account for the diagnostic sensitivity and specificity associated with the detection of disease. This is exemplified for BSE using two different models for the diagnostic sensitivity. The model is furthermore modified in such a way that a set of different values for the design prevalence in the surveillance streams can be accommodated (prevalence heterogeneity) and a general expression for the power function is developed. For illustration, numerical results for BSE suggest that currently (data status September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity.

The effects of pre- and postnatal depression in fathers: a natural experiment comparing the effects of exposure to depression on offspring

Background: Depression in fathers in the postnatal period is associated with an increased risk of behavioural problems in their offspring, particularly for boys. The aim of this study was to examine for differential effects of depression in fathers on children's subsequent psychological functioning via a natural experiment comparing prenatal and postnatal exposure. Methods:In a longitudinal population cohort study (the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC)) we examined the associations between depression in fathers measured in the prenatal and postnatal period (measured using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale), and later behavioural/emotional and psychiatric problems in their children, assessed at ages 31/2 and 7 years. Results: Children whose fathers were depressed in both the prenatal and postnatal periods had the highest risks of subsequent psychopathology, measured by total problems at age 31/2 years (Odds Ratio 3.55; 95% confidence interval 2.07, 6.08) and psychiatric diagnosis at age 7 years (OR 2.54; 1.19, 5.41). Few differences emerged when prenatal and postnatal depression exposure were directly compared, but when compared to fathers who were not depressed, boys whose fathers had postnatal depression only had higher rates of conduct problems aged 31/2 years (OR 2.14; 1.22, 3.72) whereas sons of the prenatal group did not (OR 1.41; .75, 2.65). These associations changed little when controlling for maternal depression and other potential confounding factors. Conclusions: The findings of this study suggest that the increased risk of later conduct problems, seen particularly in the sons of depressed fathers, maybe partly mediated through environmental means. In addition, children whose fathers are more chronically depressed appear to be at a higher risk of emotional and behavioural problems. Efforts to identify the precise mechanisms by which transmission of risk may occur should be encouraged to enable the development of focused interventions to mitigate risks for young children.

APOA5 genotype influences the association between 25-hydroxyvitamin D and high density lipoprotein cholesterol

OBJECTIVE: Circulating levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) are positively associated with high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. We sought to replicate a previously reported interaction between APOA5 genotype and vitamin D, and to examine whether HDL-associated genetic loci modify the association between serum 25OHD and HDL cholesterol. METHODS: We examined whether 42 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) modify the association between serum 25OHD and HDL cholesterol in the 1958 British Birth cohort (aged 45 years, n = 4978). RESULTS: We identified a borderline interaction between the SNP rs12272004 (near the APOA5) and serum 25OHD on HDL cholesterol (P(interaction) = 0.05). The interaction was particularly prominent among the samples collected during winter (P(interaction) = 0.001). None of the other loci showed an interaction with serum 25OHD concentrations on HDL cholesterol. CONCLUSIONS: Our study in 4978 British Whites provides further support that APOA5 genotype modifies the association between vitamin D metabolites and HDL cholesterol.

Genetic association analysis of vitamin D pathway with obesity traits

Objective:Observational studies have examined the link between vitamin D deficiency and obesity traits. Some studies have reported associations between vitamin D pathway genes such as VDR, GC and CYP27B1 with body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC); however, the findings have been inconsistent. Therefore, we investigated the involvement of vitamin D metabolic pathway genes in obesity-related traits in a large population-based study.Methods:We undertook a comprehensive analysis between 100 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tagSNPs) in genes encoding for DHCR7, CYP2R1, VDBP, CYP27B1, CYP27A1, CYP24A1, VDR and RXRG, and obesity traits in 5224 participants (aged 45 years) in the 1958 British birth cohort (1958BC). We further extended our analyses to investigate the associations between SNPs and obesity traits using the summary statistics from the GIANT (Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits) consortium (n=123 865).Results:In the 1958BC (n=5224), after Bonferroni correction, none of the tagSNPs were associated with obesity traits except for one tagSNP from CYP24A1 that was associated with waist-hip ratio (WHR) (rs2296239, P=0.001). However, the CYP24A1 SNP was not associated with BMI-adjusted WHR (WHRadj) in the 1958BC (rs2296239, P=1.00) and GIANT results (n=123 865, P=0.18). There was also no evidence for an interaction between the tagSNPs and obesity on BMI, WC, WHR and WHRadj in the 1958BC. In the GIANT consortium, none of the tagSNPs were associated with obesity traits.Conclusions:Despite a very large study, our findings suggest that the vitamin D pathway genes are unlikely to have a major role in obesity-related traits in the general population.

Interaction between vitamin D receptor gene polymorphisms and 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations on metabolic and cardiovascular disease outcomes

AIM: 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) concentrations have been shown to be associated with major clinical outcomes, with a suggestion that individual risk may vary according to common genetic differences in the vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene. Hence, we tested for the interactions between two previously studied VDR polymorphisms and 25OHD on metabolic and cardiovascular disease-related outcomes in a large population-based study. METHODS: Interactions between two previously studied VDR polymorphisms (rs7968585 and rs2239179) and 25OHD concentrations on metabolic and cardiovascular disease-related outcomes such as obesity- (body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR)), cardiovascular- (systolic and diastolic blood pressure), lipid- (high- and low-density lipoprotein, triglycerides, total cholesterol), inflammatory- (C-reactive protein, fibrinogen, insulin growth factor-1, tissue plasminogen activator) and diabetes- (glycated haemoglobin) related markers were examined in the 1958 British Birth cohort (n up to 5160). Interactions between each SNP and 25OHD concentrations were assessed using linear regression and the likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: After Bonferroni correction, none of the interactions reached statistical significance except for the interaction between the VDR SNP rs2239179 and 25OHD concentrations on waist-hip ratio (WHR) (P=0.03). For every 1nmol/L higher 25OHD concentrations, the association with WHR was stronger among those with two major alleles (-4.0%, P=6.26e-24) compared to those with either one or no major alleles (-2.3%, P≤8.201e-07, for both) of the VDR SNP rs2239179. CONCLUSION: We found no evidence for VDR polymorphisms acting as major modifiers of the association between 25OHD concentrations and cardio-metabolic risk. Interaction between VDR SNP rs2239179 and 25OHD on WHR warrants further confirmation.

Interaction between allelic variations in vitamin D receptor and retinoid X receptor genes on metabolic traits

BACKGROUND: Low vitamin D status has been shown to be a risk factor for several metabolic traits such as obesity, diabetes and cardiovascular disease. The biological actions of 1, 25-dihydroxyvitamin D, are mediated through the vitamin D receptor (VDR), which heterodimerizes with retinoid X receptor, gamma (RXRG). Hence, we examined the potential interactions between the tagging polymorphisms in the VDR (22 tag SNPs) and RXRG (23 tag SNPs) genes on metabolic outcomes such as body mass index, waist circumference, waist-hip ratio (WHR), high- and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterols, serum triglycerides, systolic and diastolic blood pressures and glycated haemoglobin in the 1958 British Birth Cohort (1958BC, up to n = 5,231). We used Multifactor- dimensionality reduction (MDR) program as a non-parametric test to examine for potential interactions between the VDR and RXRG gene polymorphisms in the 1958BC. We used the data from Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (NFBC66, up to n = 5,316) and Twins UK (up to n = 3,943) to replicate our initial findings from 1958BC. RESULTS: After Bonferroni correction, the joint-likelihood ratio test suggested interactions on serum triglycerides (4 SNP - SNP pairs), LDL cholesterol (2 SNP - SNP pairs) and WHR (1 SNP - SNP pair) in the 1958BC. MDR permutation model testing analysis showed one two-way and one three-way interaction to be statistically significant on serum triglycerides in the 1958BC. In meta-analysis of results from two replication cohorts (NFBC66 and Twins UK, total n = 8,183), none of the interactions remained after correction for multiple testing (Pinteraction >0.17). CONCLUSIONS: Our results did not provide strong evidence for interactions between allelic variations in VDR and RXRG genes on metabolic outcomes; however, further replication studies on large samples are needed to confirm our findings.

Elevated fetal steroidogenic activity in autism

Autism affects males more than females, giving rise to the idea that the influence of steroid hormones on early fetal brain development may be one important early biological risk factor. Utilizing the Danish Historic Birth Cohort and Danish Psychiatric Central Register, we identified all amniotic fluid samples of males born between 1993 and 1999 who later received ICD-10 (International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision) diagnoses of autism, Asperger syndrome or PDD-NOS (pervasive developmental disorder not otherwise specified) (n=128) compared with matched typically developing controls. Concentration levels of Δ4 sex steroids (progesterone, 17α-hydroxy-progesterone, androstenedione and testosterone) and cortisol were measured with liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. All hormones were positively associated with each other and principal component analysis confirmed that one generalized latent steroidogenic factor was driving much of the variation in the data. The autism group showed elevations across all hormones on this latent generalized steroidogenic factor (Cohen's d=0.37, P=0.0009) and this elevation was uniform across ICD-10 diagnostic label. These results provide the first direct evidence of elevated fetal steroidogenic activity in autism. Such elevations may be important as epigenetic fetal programming mechanisms and may interact with other important pathophysiological factors in autism.

Interactions between uncoupling protein 2 gene polymorphisms, obesity and alcohol intake on liver function: a large meta-analysed population-based study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Given the role of uncoupling protein 2 (UCP2) in the accumulation of fat in the hepatocytes and in the enhancement of protective mechanisms in acute ethanol intake, we hypothesised that UCP2 polymorphisms are likely to cause liver disease through their interactions with obesity and alcohol intake. To test this hypothesis, we investigated the interaction between tagging polymorphisms in the UCP2 gene (rs2306819, rs599277 and rs659366), alcohol intake and obesity traits such as BMI and waist circumference (WC) on alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and gamma glutamyl transferase (GGT) in a large meta-analysis of data sets from three populations (n=20 242). DESIGN AND METHODS: The study populations included the Northern Finland Birth Cohort 1966 (n=4996), Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (n=1883) and LifeLines Cohort Study (n=13 363). Interactions between the polymorphisms and obesity and alcohol intake on dichotomised ALT and GGT levels were assessed using logistic regression and the likelihood ratio test. RESULTS: In the meta-analysis of the three cohorts, none of the three UCP2 polymorphisms were associated with GGT or ALT levels. There was no evidence for interaction between the polymorphisms and alcohol intake on GGT and ALT levels. In contrast, the association of WC and BMI with GGT levels varied by rs659366 genotype (Pinteraction=0.03 and 0.007, respectively; adjusted for age, gender, high alcohol intake, diabetes, hypertension and serum lipid concentrations). CONCLUSION: In conclusion, our findings in 20 242 individuals suggest that UCP2 gene polymorphisms may cause liver dysfunction through the interaction with body fat rather than alcohol intake.

Do early father–infant interactions predict the onset of externalising behaviours in young children? Findings from a longitudinal cohort study

Background Factors related to parents and parenting capacities are important predictors of the development of behavioural problems in children. Recently, there has been an increasing research focus in this field on the earliest years of life, however, relatively few studies have addressed the role of fathers, despite this appearing to be particularly pertinent to child behavioural development. This study aimed to examine whether father–infant interactions at age 3 months independently predicted child behavioural problems at 1 year of age. Method A sample of 192 families was recruited from two maternity units in the United Kingdom. Father–infant interactions were assessed in the family home and coded using the Global Rating Scales. Child behaviour problems were assessed by maternal report. Hierarchical and logistic regression analyses were used to examine associations between father–infant interaction and the development of behavioural problems. Results Disengaged and remote interactions between fathers and their infants were found to predict externalising behavioural problems at the age of 1 year. The children of the most disengaged fathers had an increased risk of developing early externalising behavioural problems [disengaged (nonintrusive) interactions – adjusted Odds Ratio 5.33 (95% Confidence Interval; 1.39, 20.40): remote interactions adj. OR 3.32 (0.92, 12.05)] Conclusions Disengaged interactions of fathers with their infants, as early as the third month of life, predict early behavioural problems in children. These interactions may be critical factors to address, from a very early age in the child’s life, and offer a potential opportunity for preventive intervention.

Depression in men in the postnatal period and later child psychopathology: a population cohort study

Objective: Postnatal depression in women is associated with adverse effects on both maternal health and children's development. It is unclear whether depression in men at this time poses comparable risks. The present study set out to assess the association between depression in men in the postnatal period and later psychiatric disorders in their children and to investigate predisposing factors for depression in men following childbirth. Method: A population-based cohort of 10,975 fathers and their children from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) was recruited in the prenatal period and followed for 7 years. Paternal depressive symptoms were assessed with the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale and later child psychiatric disorder (DSM-IV) with the Development and Well-Being Assessment. Results: Depression in fathers in the postnatal period was significantly associated with psychiatric disorder in their children 7 years later (adjusted OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.07-2.77), most notably oppositional defiant/conduct disorders (adjusted OR 1.94, 95% CI 1.04-3.61), after adjusting for maternal depression and paternal educational level. A history of severe depression and high prenatal symptom scores for depression and anxiety were the strongest predictors of paternal depression in the postnatal period. Conclusions: Depression in fathers in the postnatal period is associated with later psychiatric disorders in their children, independently of maternal postnatal depression. Further research into the risks associated with paternal psychopathology is required because this could represent an important opportunity for public health intervention.

The development of children of postnatally depressed mothers: evidence from the Cambridge longitudinal study

Children with a parent who suffers from depression are at raised risk for the disorder themselves. Relatively little is known about the development of psychological vulnerability to depression through childhood, particularly during infancy and early childhood. This paper describes results from a longitudinal prospective study of the development of children, studied from birth to 16 years, of mothers who experienced postnatal depression; it highlights the roles of the developing mother-child relationship, and of physiological functioning and social relationships in the development of adolescent vulnerability.

Longitudinal investigation of the faecal microbiota of healthy full-term infants using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis.

From birth onwards, the gastrointestinal (GI) tract of infants progressively acquires a complex range of micro-organisms. It is thought that by 2 years of age the GI microbial population has stabilized. Within the developmental period of the infant GI microbiota, weaning is considered to be most critical, as the infant switches from a milk-based diet (breast and/or formula) to a variety of food components. Longitudinal analysis of the biological succession of the infant GI/faecal microbiota is lacking. In this study, faecal samples were obtained regularly from 14 infants from 1 month to 18 months of age. Seven of the infants (including a set of twins) were exclusively breast-fed and seven were exclusively formula-fed prior to weaning, with 175 and 154 faecal samples, respectively, obtained from each group. Diversity and dynamics of the infant faecal microbiota were analysed by using fluorescence in situ hybridization and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. Overall, the data demonstrated large inter- and intra-individual differences in the faecal microbiological profiles during the study period. However, the infant faecal microbiota merged with time towards a climax community within and between feeding groups. Data from the twins showed the highest degree of similarity both quantitatively and qualitatively. Inter-individual variation was evident within the infant faecal microbiota and its development, even within exclusively formula-fed infants receiving the same diet. These data can be of help to future clinical trials (e.g. targeted weaning products) to organize protocols and obtain a more accurate outline of the changes and dynamics of the infant GI microbiota.

A prospective longitudinal study of the impact of early postnatal vs. chronic maternal depressive symptoms on child development

Background Few studies of the effects of postnatal depression on child development have considered the chronicity of depressive symptoms. We investigated whether early postnatal depressive symptoms (PNDS) predicted child developmental outcome independently of later maternal depressive symptoms. Methods In a prospective, longitudinal study, mothers and children were followed-up from birth to 2 years; repeated measures of PNDS were made using the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS); child development was assessed using the Bayley Scales II. Multilevel modelling techniques were used to examine the association between 6 week PNDS, and child development, taking subsequent depressive symptoms into account. Results Children of mothers with 6 week PNDS were significantly more likely than children of non-symptomatic mothers to have poor cognitive outcome; however, this association was reduced to trend level when adjusted for later maternal depressive symptoms. Conclusion Effects of early PNDS on infant development may be partly explained by subsequent depressive symptoms.

Cognitive follow up of a small cohort of Huntington's disease patients over a 5 year period

A small group of patients with manifest Huntington's disease (HD) were followed longitudinally to assess cognitive decline in relation to time from disease diagnosis. This article looks at performance on a range of computerised and pencil and paper cognitive tasks in patients 5 years post diagnosis, who were assessed annually for a 5 year follow up period. The almost universal cognitive decline reported in other longitudinal studies of HD was not replicated in this study. It was proposed that longitudinal follow up in HD is complicated by the varying degree to which different tasks are able to withstand repeated administration; a finding which would have significant implications on study design in future trials of cognitive enhansing interventions.