Describing long-term trends in precipitation using generalized additive models

With the current concern over climate change, descriptions of how rainfall patterns are changing over time can be useful. Observations of daily rainfall data over the last few decades provide information on these trends. Generalized linear models are typically used to model patterns in the occurrence and intensity of rainfall. These models describe rainfall patterns for an average year but are more limited when describing long-term trends, particularly when these are potentially non-linear. Generalized additive models (GAMS) provide a framework for modelling non-linear relationships by fitting smooth functions to the data. This paper describes how GAMS can extend the flexibility of models to describe seasonal patterns and long-term trends in the occurrence and intensity of daily rainfall using data from Mauritius from 1962 to 2001. Smoothed estimates from the models provide useful graphical descriptions of changing rainfall patterns over the last 40 years at this location. GAMS are particularly helpful when exploring non-linear relationships in the data. Care is needed to ensure the choice of smooth functions is appropriate for the data and modelling objectives. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression - 1. Impact on maternal mood!

Background: Psychological interventions for postnatal depression can be beneficial in the short term but their longer-term impact is unknown, Aims To evaluate the long-term effect on maternal mood of three psychological treatments in relation to routine primary care. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193)were assigned randomly to one of four conditions: routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy. They were assessed immediately after the treatment phase (at 4.5 months) and at 18 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Compared with the control, ail three treatments had a significant impact at 4.5 months on maternal mood (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS). Only psychodynamic therapy produced a rate of reduction in depression (Structured Clinical interview for DSM III-R) significantly superior to that of the control. The benefit of treatment was no longer apparent by 9 months postpartum, treatment did not reduce subsequent episodes of post-partum depression. Conclusions: Psychological intervention for post-partum depression improves maternal mood (EPDS) in the short term. However, this benefit is not superior to spontaneous remission in the long term.

Acute and long-term effects of dietary fatty acids on vascular function in health and disease

Purpose of review: Vascular function is recognized as an early and integrative marker of cardiovascular disease. While there is consistent evidence that the quantity of dietary fat has significant effects on vascular function, the differential effects of individual fatty acids is less clear. This review summarizes recent evidence from randomly controlled dietary studies on the impact of dietary fatty acids on vascular function, as determined by flow-mediated dilatation (FMD). Recent findings: Critical appraisal is given to five intervention studies (one acute, four chronic) which examined the impact of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid [eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA)] on FMD. In the acute setting, a high dose of long-chain n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (4.9 g per 70 kg man) improved postprandial FMD significantly, compared with a saturated fatty acid-rich meal in healthy individuals. In longer-term studies, there was limited evidence for a significant effect of EPA/DHA on FMD in diseased groups. Summary: The strongest evidence for the benefits of EPA/DHA on vascular function is in the postprandial state. More evidence from randomly controlled intervention trials with foods will be required to substantiate the long-term effects of EPA/DHA, to inform public health and clinical recommendations.

Long term individual load forecast under different electrical vehicles uptake scenarios

More and more households are purchasing electric vehicles (EVs), and this will continue as we move towards a low carbon future. There are various projections as to the rate of EV uptake, but all predict an increase over the next ten years. Charging these EVs will produce one of the biggest loads on the low voltage network. To manage the network, we must not only take into account the number of EVs taken up, but where on the network they are charging, and at what time. To simulate the impact on the network from high, medium and low EV uptake (as outlined by the UK government), we present an agent-based model. We initialise the model to assign an EV to a household based on either random distribution or social influences - that is, a neighbour of an EV owner is more likely to also purchase an EV. Additionally, we examine the effect of peak behaviour on the network when charging is at day-time, night-time, or a mix of both. The model is implemented on a neighbourhood in south-east England using smart meter data (half hourly electricity readings) and real life charging patterns from an EV trial. Our results indicate that social influence can increase the peak demand on a local level (street or feeder), meaning that medium EV uptake can create higher peak demand than currently expected.

Nodal variations and long-term changes in the main tides on the coasts of China

The long-term changes in the main tidal constituents (O1, K1, M2, N2, and S2) along the coasts of China and in adjacent seas are investigated based on 17 tide-gauge records covering the period 1954–2012. The observed 18.61 year nodal modulations of the diurnal constituents O1 and K1 are in agreement with the equilibrium tidal theory, except in the South China Sea. The observed modulations of the M2 and N2 amplitudes are smaller than theoretically predicted at the northern stations and larger at the southern stations. The discrepancies between the theoretically predicted nodal variations and the observations are discussed. The 8.85 year perigean cycle is identifiable in the N2 parameters at most stations, except those in the South China Sea. The radiational component of S2 contributes on average 16% of the observed S2 except in the Gulf of Tonkin, on the south coast, where it accounts for up to 65%. We confirmed the existence of nodal modulation in S2, which is stronger on the north coast. The semidiurnal tidal parameters show significant secular trends in the Bohai and Yellow Seas, on the north coast, and in the Taiwan Strait. The largest increase is found for M2 for which the amplitude increases by 4–7 mm/yr in the Yellow Sea. The potential causes for the linear trends in tidal constants are discussed.