Processes influencing ozone levels in Alaskan forest fire plumes during long-range transport over the North Atlantic

A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

Peroxy radicals and ozone photochemistry in air masses undergoing long-range transport

Concentrations of peroxy radicals (HO2+ΣiRiO2) in addition to other trace gases were measured onboard the UK Meteorological Office/Natural Environment Research Council British Aerospace 146-300 atmospheric research aircraft during the Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) campaign based at Horta Airport, Faial, Azores (38.58° N, 28.72° W) in July/August 2004. The overall peroxy radical altitude profile displays an increase with altitude that is likely to have been impacted by the effects of long-range transport. The peroxy radical altitude profile for air classified as of marine origin shows no discernable altitude profile. A range of air-masses were intercepted with varying source signatures, including those with aged American and Asian signatures, air-masses of biomass burning origin, and those that originated from the east coast of the United States. Enhanced peroxy radical concentrations have been observed within this range of air-masses indicating that long-range transported air-masses traversing the Atlantic show significant photochemical activity. The net ozone production at clear sky limit is in general negative, and as such the summer mid-Atlantic troposphere is at limit net ozone destructive. However, there is clear evidence of positive ozone production even at clear sky limit within air masses undergoing long-range transport, and during ITOP especially between 5 and 5.5 km, which in the main corresponds to a flight that extensively sampled air with a biomass burning signature. Ozone production was NOx limited throughout ITOP, as evidenced by a good correlation (r2=0.72) between P(O3) and NO. Strong positive net ozone production has also been seen in varying source signature air-masses undergoing long-range transport, including but not limited to low-level export events, and export from the east coast of the United States.

Orde Wingate, 'Guerrilla' Warfare and Long-Range Penetration, 1940-44

Major General Orde Wingate was a highly controversial figure in his time and remains so among historians. However, his eccentric and colourful personality has drawn attention away from the nature of his military ideas, the most important of which was his concept of long-range penetration, which originated from his observations of his operations in Italian-occupied Ethiopia in 1941, and evolved into the model he put into practice in the Chindit operations in Burma in 1943-44. A review of Wingate's own official writings on this subject reveals that long-range penetration combined local guerrilla irregulars, purpose-trained regular troops and airpower into large-scale offensive operations deep in the enemy rear, with the intention of disrupting his planning process and creating situations regular forces could exploit. This evolved organically from Major General Colin Gubbins' doctrine for guerrilla resistance in enemy occupied areas, and bears some resemblance to the operational model applied by US and Allied forces, post September 2001.

Inter-simple sequence repeat and aggressiveness analyses revealed high genetic diversity, recombination and long-range dispersal in Fusarium culmorum

Inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) analysis and aggressiveness assays were used to investigate genetic variability within a global collection of Fusarium culmorum isolates. A set of four ISSR primers were tested, of which three primers amplified a total of 37 bands out of which 30 (81%) were polymorphic. The intraspecific diversity was high, ranging from four to 28 different ISSR genotypes for F. culmorum depending on the primer. The combined analysis of ISSR data revealed 59 different genotypes clustered into seven distinct clades amongst 75 isolates of F. culmorum examined. All the isolates were assayed to test their aggressiveness on a winter wheat cv. 'Armada'. A significant quantitative variation for aggressiveness was found among the isolates. The ISSR and aggressiveness variation existed on a macro- as well as micro-geographical scale. The data suggested a long-range dispersal of F. culmorum and indicated that this fungus may have been introduced into Canada from Europe. In addition to the high level of intraspecific diversity observed in F. culmorum, the index of multilocus association calculated using ISSR data indicated that reproduction in F. culmorum cannot be exclusively clonal and recombination is likely to occur.

Impact of long-range correlations on trend detection in total ozone

Total ozone trends are typically studied using linear regression models that assume a first-order autoregression of the residuals [so-called AR(1) models]. We consider total ozone time series over 60°S–60°N from 1979 to 2005 and show that most latitude bands exhibit long-range correlated (LRC) behavior, meaning that ozone autocorrelation functions decay by a power law rather than exponentially as in AR(1). At such latitudes the uncertainties of total ozone trends are greater than those obtained from AR(1) models and the expected time required to detect ozone recovery correspondingly longer. We find no evidence of LRC behavior in southern middle-and high-subpolar latitudes (45°–60°S), where the long-term ozone decline attributable to anthropogenic chlorine is the greatest. We thus confirm an earlier prediction based on an AR(1) analysis that this region (especially the highest latitudes, and especially the South Atlantic) is the optimal location for the detection of ozone recovery, with a statistically significant ozone increase attributable to chlorine likely to be detectable by the end of the next decade. In northern middle and high latitudes, on the other hand, there is clear evidence of LRC behavior. This increases the uncertainties on the long-term trend attributable to anthropogenic chlorine by about a factor of 1.5 and lengthens the expected time to detect ozone recovery by a similar amount (from ∼2030 to ∼2045). If the long-term changes in ozone are instead fit by a piecewise-linear trend rather than by stratospheric chlorine loading, then the strong decrease of northern middle- and high-latitude ozone during the first half of the 1990s and its subsequent increase in the second half of the 1990s projects more strongly on the trend and makes a smaller contribution to the noise. This both increases the trend and weakens the LRC behavior at these latitudes, to the extent that ozone recovery (according to this model, and in the sense of a statistically significant ozone increase) is already on the verge of being detected. The implications of this rather controversial interpretation are discussed.

A two-tiered approach to long-range climate forecasting

Long-range global climate forecasts were made by use of a model for predicting a tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature (SST) in tandem with an atmospheric general circulation model. The SST is predicted first at long lead times into the future. These ocean forecasts are then used to force the atmospheric model and so produce climate forecasts at lead times of the SST forecasts. Prediction of seven large climatic events of the 1970s to 1990s by this technique are in good agreement with observations over many regions of the globe.

When long-range zero-lag synchronization is feasible in cortical networks

Many studies have reported long-range synchronization of neuronal activity between brain areas, in particular in the beta and gamma bands with frequencies in the range of 14–30 and 40–80 Hz, respectively. Several studies have reported synchrony with zero phase lag, which is remarkable considering the synaptic and conduction delays inherent in the connections between distant brain areas. This result has led to many speculations about the possible functional role of zero-lag synchrony, such as for neuronal communication, attention, memory, and feature binding. However, recent studies using recordings of single-unit activity and local field potentials report that neuronal synchronization may occur with non-zero phase lags. This raises the questions whether zero-lag synchrony can occur in the brain and, if so, under which conditions. We used analytical methods and computer simulations to investigate which connectivity between neuronal populations allows or prohibits zero-lag synchrony. We did so for a model where two oscillators interact via a relay oscillator. Analytical results and computer simulations were obtained for both type I Mirollo–Strogatz neurons and type II Hodgkin–Huxley neurons. We have investigated the dynamics of the model for various types of synaptic coupling and importantly considered the potential impact of Spike-Timing Dependent Plasticity (STDP) and its learning window. We confirm previous results that zero-lag synchrony can be achieved in this configuration. This is much easier to achieve with Hodgkin–Huxley neurons, which have a biphasic phase response curve, than for type I neurons. STDP facilitates zero-lag synchrony as it adjusts the synaptic strengths such that zero-lag synchrony is feasible for a much larger range of parameters than without STDP.

Quantification of chemical and physical processes influencing ozone during long-range transport using a trajectory ensemble

During long-range transport, many distinct processes – including photochemistry, deposition, emissions and mixing – contribute to the transformation of air mass composition. Partitioning the effects of different processes can be useful when considering the sensitivity of chemical transformation to, for example, a changing environment or anthropogenic influence. However, transformation is not observed directly, since mixing ratios are measured, and models must be used to relate changes to processes. Here, four cases from the ITCT-Lagrangian 2004 experiment are studied. In each case, aircraft intercepted a distinct air mass several times during transport over the North Atlantic, providing a unique dataset and quantifying the net changes in composition from all processes. A new framework is presented to deconstruct the change in O3 mixing ratio (Δ O3) into its component processes, which were not measured directly, taking into account the uncertainty in measurements, initial air mass variability and its time evolution. The results show that the net chemical processing (Δ O3chem) over the whole simulation is greater than net physical processing (Δ O3phys) in all cases. This is in part explained by cancellation effects associated with mixing. In contrast, each case is in a regime of either net photochemical destruction (lower tropospheric transport) or production (an upper tropospheric biomass burning case). However, physical processes influence O3 indirectly through addition or removal of precursor gases, so that changes to physical parameters in a model can have a larger effect on Δ O3chem than Δ O3phys. Despite its smaller magnitude, the physical processing distinguishes the lower tropospheric export cases, since the net photochemical O3 change is −5 ppbv per day in all three cases. Processing is quantified using a Lagrangian photochemical model with a novel method for simulating mixing through an ensemble of trajectories and a background profile that evolves with them. The model is able to simulate the magnitude and variability of the observations (of O3, CO, NOy and some hydrocarbons) and is consistent with the time-average OH following air-masses inferred from hydrocarbon measurements alone (by Arnold et al., 2007). Therefore, it is a useful new method to simulate air mass evolution and variability, and its sensitivity to process parameters.

Lightning-induced extensive charge sheets provide long range electrostatic thunderstorm detection

By combining electrostatic measurements of lightning-induced electrostatic field changes with radio frequency lightning location, some field changes from exceptionally distant lightning events are apparent which are inconsistent with the usual inverse cube of distance. Furthermore, by using two measurement sites, a transition zone can be identified beyond which the electric field response reverses polarity. For these severe lightning events, we infer a horizontally extensive charge sheet above a thunderstorm, consistent with a mesospheric halo of several hundred kilometers’ extent.

Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions

There has been a great deal of recent interest in producing weather forecasts on the 2–6 week sub-seasonal timescale, which bridges the gap between medium-range (0–10 day) and seasonal (3–6 month) forecasts. While much of this interest is focused on the potential applications of skilful forecasts on the sub-seasonal range, understanding the potential sources of sub-seasonal forecast skill is a challenging and interesting problem, particularly because of the likely state-dependence of this skill (Hudson et al 2011). One such potential source of state-dependent skill for the Northern Hemisphere in winter is the occurrence of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events (Sigmond et al 2013). Here we show, by analysing a set of sub-seasonal hindcasts, that there is enhanced predictability of surface circulation not only when the stratospheric vortex is anomalously weak following SSWs but also when the vortex is extremely strong. Sub-seasonal forecasts initialized during strong vortex events are able to successfully capture the associated surface temperature and circulation anomalies. This results in an enhancement of Northern annular mode forecast skill compared to forecasts initialized during the cases when the stratospheric state is close to climatology. We demonstrate that the enhancement of skill for forecasts initialized during periods of strong vortex conditions is comparable to that achieved for forecasts initialized during weak events. This result indicates that additional confidence can be placed in sub-seasonal forecasts when the stratospheric polar vortex is significantly disturbed from its normal state.