Determining the effect of asymmetric data on the variogram. II. Outliers

Asymmetry in a distribution can arise from a long tail of values in the underlying process or from outliers that belong to another population that contaminate the primary process. The first paper of this series examined the effects of the former on the variogram and this paper examines the effects of asymmetry arising from outliers. Simulated annealing was used to create normally distributed random fields of different size that are realizations of known processes described by variograms with different nugget:sill ratios. These primary data sets were then contaminated with randomly located and spatially aggregated outliers from a secondary process to produce different degrees of asymmetry. Experimental variograms were computed from these data by Matheron's estimator and by three robust estimators. The effects of standard data transformations on the coefficient of skewness and on the variogram were also investigated. Cross-validation was used to assess the performance of models fitted to experimental variograms computed from a range of data contaminated by outliers for kriging. The results showed that where skewness was caused by outliers the variograms retained their general shape, but showed an increase in the nugget and sill variances and nugget:sill ratios. This effect was only slightly more for the smallest data set than for the two larger data sets and there was little difference between the results for the latter. Overall, the effect of size of data set was small for all analyses. The nugget:sill ratio showed a consistent decrease after transformation to both square roots and logarithms; the decrease was generally larger for the latter, however. Aggregated outliers had different effects on the variogram shape from those that were randomly located, and this also depended on whether they were aggregated near to the edge or the centre of the field. The results of cross-validation showed that the robust estimators and the removal of outliers were the most effective ways of dealing with outliers for variogram estimation and kriging. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The income requirements of marine protected areas

Given the growing impact of human activities on the sea, managers are increasingly turning to marine protected areas (MPAs) to protect marine habitats and species. Many MPAs have been unsuccessful, however, and lack of income has been identified as a primary reason for failure. In this study, data from a global survey of 79 MPAs in 36 countries were analysed and attempts made to construct predictive models to determine the income requirements of any given MPA. Statistical tests were used to uncover possible patterns and relationships in the data, with two basic approaches. In the first of these, an attempt was made to build an explanatory "bottom-up" model of the cost structures that might be required to pursue various management activities. This proved difficult in practice owing to the very broad range of applicable data, spanning many orders of magnitude. In the second approach, a "top-down" regression model was constructed using logarithms of the base data, in order to address the breadth of the data ranges. This approach suggested that MPA size and visitor numbers together explained 46% of the minimum income requirements (P < 0.001), with area being the slightly more influential factor. The significance of area to income requirements was of little surprise, given its profile in the literature. However, the relationship between visitors and income requirements might go some way to explaining why northern hemisphere MPAs with apparently high incomes still claim to be under-funded. The relationship between running costs and visitor numbers has important implications not only in determining a realistic level of funding for MPAs, but also in assessing from where funding might be obtained. Since a substantial proportion of the income of many MPAs appears to be utilized for amenity purposes, a case may be made for funds to be provided from the typically better resourced government social and educational budgets as well as environmental budgets. Similarly visitor fees, already an important source of funding for some MPAs, might have a broader role to play in how MPAs are financed in the future. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structure–activity relations (SARs) for gas-phase reactions of NO3, OH and O3 with alkenes: an update

We present updated structure-activity relations (SARs) for the prediction of rate coefficients for gas-phase reactions with alkenes of the major atmospheric oxidants NO3, OH and O-3. Such SARs provide one way of incorporating essential information about reactivity into atmospheric models. Rate coefficients obtained from correlations relating the logarithms of the rate coefficients to the energies of the highest occupied molecular orbitals (HOMOs) of the alkenes were used to refine the SARs. SARs have an advantage for the user over the direct application of the correlations in that knowledge of the structure of the alkene of interest is sufficient to estimate rate coefficients, and no quantum-mechanical calculations need to be performed. A comparison of the values predicted by the SARs with experimental data where they exist allowed us to assess the reliability of our method.

Correlations for gas-phase reactions of NO3, OH and O3 with alkenes: an update

Methods are developed for predicting rate coefficients for reactions of initiators of tropospheric oxidation with unsaturated compounds that are abundant in the atmosphere; prognostic tools of this kind are essential for atmospheric chemists and modellers. To pursue the aim of exploring such tools, the kinetics of reactions of NO3, OH and O-3 with a series of alkenes are examined for correlations relating the logarithms of the rate coefficients to the energies of the highest occupied molecular orbitals (HOMOs) of the alkenes. A comparison of the values predicted by the correlations with experimental data (where the latter exist) allowed us to assess the reliability of our method. We used a series of theoretical methods to calculate the HOMO energies, and found that higher computational effort improves the agreement of the predicted rate coefficients with experimental values, especially for reactions of NO3 with alkenes that possess vinyllic halogen substituents. As a consequence, it is expedient to suggest new correlations to replace those presented by us and others that were based on the lower level of theory. We propose the following correlations for the reactions of NO3, OH and O-3 with alkenes: ln(k(NO3)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = 6.40(E-HOMO/eV) + 31.69, ln(k(OH)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = 1.21 (E-HOMO/eV)-12.34 and ln(k(O3)/cm(3) molecule(-1) s(-1)) = 3.28(E-HOMO/eV)-6.78. These new correlations have been developed using the larger experimental data sets now available, and the impact of the extended data on the quality of the correlations is examined in the paper. Atmospheric lifetimes have been calculated from both experimental and estimated rate coefficients to provide an overview of removal efficiencies for different classes of alkenes with respect to oxidative processes initiated by NO3, OH and O-3. A figure is presented to show the spatial scales over which alkenes may survive transport in competition with attack by NO3, OH and O-3. Removal by NO3 or OH is always more important than removal by O-3, and reactions with NO3 dominate for scales up to a few hundred metres.

Gas-phase rate coefficients for the reactions of O(3P), S(3P), Se(3P), and Te(3P) with alkenes: application of perturbation frontier molecular orbital theory, correlations, and structure-activity relations (SARs)

The kinetics of the reactions of the atoms O(P-3), S(P-3), Se(P-3), and Te((3)p) with a series of alkenes are examined for correlations relating the logarithms of the rate coefficients to the energies of the highest occupied molecular orbitals (HOMOs) of the alkenes. These correlations may be employed to predict rate coefficients from the calculated HOMO energy of any other alkene of interest. The rate coefficients obtained from the correlations were used to formulate structure-activity relations (SARs) for reactions of O((3)p), S(P-3), Se (P-3), and Te((3)p) with alkenes. A comparison of the values predicted by both the correlations and the SARs with experimental data where they exist allowed us to assess the reliability of our method. We demonstrate the applicability of perturbation frontier molecular orbital theory to gas-phase reactions of these atoms with alkenes. The correlations are apparently not applicable to reactions of C(P-3), Si(P-3), N(S-4), and Al(P-2) atoms with alkenes, a conclusion that could be explained in terms of a different mechanism for reaction of these atoms.

Spatiotemporal behavior of the TIGGE medium-range ensemble forecasts

Using the recently-developed mean–variance of logarithms (MVL) diagram, together with the TIGGE archive of medium-range ensemble forecasts from nine different centres, an analysis is presented of the spatiotemporal dynamics of their perturbations, showing how the differences between models and perturbation techniques can explain the shape of their characteristic MVL curves. In particular, a divide is seen between ensembles based on singular vectors or empirical orthogonal functions, and those based on bred vector, Ensemble Transform with Rescaling or Ensemble Kalman Filter techniques. Consideration is also given to the use of the MVL diagram to compare the growth of perturbations within the ensemble with the growth of the forecast error, showing that there is a much closer correspondence for some models than others. Finally, the use of the MVL technique to assist in selecting models for inclusion in a multi-model ensemble is discussed, and an experiment suggested to test its potential in this context.

The role of the log transformation in forecasting economic variables

For forecasting and economic analysis many variables are used in logarithms (logs). In time series analysis, this transformation is often considered to stabilize the variance of a series. We investigate under which conditions taking logs is beneficial for forecasting. Forecasts based on the original series are compared to forecasts based on logs. For a range of economic variables, substantial forecasting improvements from taking logs are found if the log transformation actually stabilizes the variance of the underlying series. Using logs can be damaging for the forecast precision if a stable variance is not achieved.

Forecasting annual inflation with seasonal monthly data: using levels versus logs of the underlying price index

This paper investigates whether using natural logarithms (logs) of price indices for forecasting inflation rates is preferable to employing the original series. Univariate forecasts for annual inflation rates for a number of European countries and the USA based on monthly seasonal consumer price indices are considered. Stochastic seasonality and deterministic seasonality models are used. In many cases, the forecasts based on the original variables result in substantially smaller root mean squared errors than models based on logs. In turn, if forecasts based on logs are superior, the gains are typically small. This outcome sheds doubt on the common practice in the academic literature to forecast inflation rates based on differences of logs.

Limitations of small x resummation methods from F2data

We discuss several methods of calculating the DIS structure functions F2(x,Q2) based on BFKL-type small x resummations. Taking into account new HERA data ranging down to small xand low Q2, the pure leading order BFKL-based approach is excluded. Other methods based on high energy factorization are closer to conventional renormalization group equations. Despite several difficulties and ambiguities in combining the renormalization group equations with small x resummed terms, we find that a fit to the current data is hardly feasible, since the data in the low Q2 region are not as steep as the BFKL formalism predicts. Thus we conclude that deviations from the (successful) renormalization group approach towards summing up logarithms in 1/x are disfavoured by experiment.